I need opinions on RHP

Wow thats pretty impressive. Looks like he will have plenty of opportunities. If he is a hard worker and can throw strikes he should not have any problems at all finding someone that wants him on their staff.

Most definitely can play in college, but as to the dreaded "what level" question, he may be a "tweener"-in between D-I and D-II/D-III. I've seen lots of college games at all levels, and while I see plenty of D-I pitchers throwing very effectively around your son's speed, I wonder how they got there. Going through the process with my two sons (showcases, camps, etc.), it seemed the D-I scouts gunned the "mid-80's" RHP's a couple times, then put the gun down and chatted with their buddies. if the RHP was 6'3" or better, there was a little more interest. LHP's in mid-80's got more interest.

I watched some great baseball this summer in a wooden bat league, and the best pitching performance I saw was by a SEC pitcher, 6' even, never threw over 84 (scoreboard had a gun), but he put his fastball, curve, and changeup exactly where he wanted, started off ahead of practically every batter, and had guys shaking their heads. I also saw a Dodger scout do a final look-see at one of their draftees, 6'4", didn't go over 86 but hit his spots till he tired; they signed him a week later, so he must've liked what he saw.

Don't worry about opinions. If he truly wants to play college ball, then have him give the recruiting process his best shot. The college coaches will answer the question...

Morecoaches than not want pitchers that get batters out, not how hard they throw.


Speed is nice but outs are even better

quote:

Originally posted by TRhit:
Speed is nice but outs are even better

Makes perfect sense!

quote:

Originally posted by mdmcnm:
I'm a realist when it comes to my son's abilities as a pitcher. However, I'd like opinions on his potential to play in college (based on the following):

Junior in HS (2009 grad)
4.1 GPA (9th in class of 525)
6'2" 185 lbs
3/4 Slot FB 83-85 mph
Side FB 84-86 mph
Curve (12-6)68-70 mph
Change 68 mph

3/4 slot FB has decent movement; Side FB has inward movement (on RH batter); curve is okay; change has down and in movement (on RH batter).

Opinions?

It's really tough to give an opinion when one hasn't seen the player in question.

Attend a showcase, get him ot camps where he will be observed and rated by those who don't know him and who will see him in person and paid to give opinions. JMO.

Thank you all for your opinions and suggestions. I realize you can't judge a kid by stats - the most important stat is getting outs no matter what speed you throw.

We're actually approaching college baseball from the academic/college environment side of things (versus trying to see what baseball offers are available and then deciding amongst those schools).

While he may have a better chance of playing at an Ivy or Patriot school, he really likes the academics and environment at Va. Tech (and possibly W&M). He will be attending the Va. Tech Prospect Clinic on the 27th and 28th of October.

At this point, he's playing fall ball and will be heading back to Gary Lavelle for training in November through January. While he typically has good control, he's really working hard on his consistency so as to be prepared for the high school season.

Hopefully he can perform well next month and get to know the coaches up in Blacksburg. As for whether he get's to play at Tech, who knows. I'm not a parent who's hung up on my kid playing college ball; I've just told my son to work hard and let the chips fall where they may because, in the end, it's the college coaches who will decide whether or not you can play at the next level.

Thanks again!

quote:

Originally posted by mdmcnm:
Thank you all for your opinions and suggestions. I realize you can't judge a kid by stats - the most important stat is getting outs no matter what speed you throw.

It does have to be a speed that's projectable to get hitters out at the next level. If a pitcher's fastball is too slow and got a lot of high school hitters out with stuff, in college the hitters will sit on the junk knowing he can't put a fastball by them.

However, the numbers you posted, without seeing the player and the movement on his pitches, seem to project to at least mid level D1.

Given the schools you mentioned JMU just ranked well in the recent USN&W college rankings. They're in the Colonial League.

How old is he?

In other words, how much is his velocity likely to improve over the next couple years?

If he's an older 17yo junior then he's probably almost completely physically mature and his velocity may not increase much. If he's a 15yo junior or barely 16yo at the moment then I'd guess he's got a few more mph left in him.

Age can make a significant difference for HS age players. Grade is not all that indicative.

That's one reason I'm disappointed that PG has taken ages off their profiles. There's a big difference between a 16yo 2009 grad throwing 85 mph and a 18yo 2009 grad throwing 85 mph and there are that big of age differences.

He is an 09 sitting in the mid 80's. He has two more years of HS baseball. If he works really hard and does the right things in the off season he has a nice future. He has good size and is very projectable based on the numbers given. There is no reason this kid cant be sitting in the upper 80's coming out of HS. I know several guys going D-1 this year who did not have these numbers as rising Jr's. 84-86 on the fastball "if thats legit" is very good for a rising Jr. If he is 86 and he picks up just two to three mph in the next year and a half now hes 88-89. Keep working hard. Plus some kids get a great jump in velocity their Jr year and some the Sr year. Good Luck

He'll be 17 this coming January.

sounds like he wants to walk on at a school he likes academically. Cautionary note. We had a walk on tryout at the local college, and an assistant coach announced the college had no spots so you are just wasting your time. No one got a spot as a walk on

The profile of your son sounds like a profile for my son. Same physical attributes, arm slot, velocities, good movement on the ball. He was also throwing those speeds going into his junior season. Academically, he had significant offers (50%+) from 4 D-I's and a D-II. He pitched very well his junior and senior seasons, received interest from SEC schools and a variety of other levels as well. Was throwing 86-88 at the end of his senior season. When it came down to it, it seems that nothing mattered to the D-I schools except whether you could hit 90 on the gun. Didn't matter if you couldn't hit the side of a barn and your record stunk all through high school. We watched kids who were wild, but could hit 90, and kids that had little movement and absolutely no consistency, but could hit 90 from time to time, get the offers. Only one of a half dozen of those kids has actually panned out as projected so far. In hindsight we realize we did not know how to market our son, and his high school coach turned out to be a liability in the recruiting process. FYI, the same seems to hold true in college ball--if you want a jersey, you better be able to hit 90. You don't have to pitch there, but you have to prove you can hit 90.

quote:

Originally posted by Homer Often:
When it came down to it, it seems that nothing mattered to the D-I schools except whether you could hit 90 on the gun.

I can't argue that D-1 schools love a kid that can hit 90 (who wouldn't) however I have to tell you there are quite a few boys out there pitching in the 80's that are in big time programs. My son and I did a few unofficial visits to various SEC and ACC schools last year. One of the things we were surprised by was the number of pitchers throwing in the mid 80's.

When I mentioned this to one of the coaches he said that every top program had one or two 90's guys but with 4 to 5 games a week there were a lot of mid 80's guys filling important roles on their staff. (This came from a school that was ranked in the top 25)

So much for the 90 plus hype---many scouts tell me there are very few 90 plus guys around this class, unlike the '07 class which was loaded---college coaches want guys who get outs---a good number of the 90 plus guys don't get outs regularly

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/06/what_good_is_an_1.php



**** an appropriate read

So he's an older 16yo junior at the moment. Interesting what Homer Often posted because that's about what I'd project for your son without knowing where he is relative to biological maturity as opposed to chronological. My guess is that he's fairly physically mature as my son is 9 mo. younger at the same height and weighs 15 lbs less. Still pretty darn good but as noted scouts and coaches do love the magic 90mph. The reality is that if a pitcher can consistently work mid to upper 80s with good command, good movement and at least one solid secondary pitch they are going to get a lot of interest from D1s.

I'd also ask what gun those readings were taken on. If it was a Stalker then it is fairly good. If it was a JUGS then I'd say so-so for a potential D1.

I expect my about to turn 16yo junior to post numbers about 1 to 3 mph less than those once we've rehabbed his arm. So mine is on the same path vs. age but because he's younger he's not going to get the same chances in HS unless he can make a jump in ability. He probably won't even get much of a shot at varsity this season despite dominating at the JV level last season working 78-81.

quote:

Originally posted by jerseydad:

quote:

Originally posted by Homer Often:
When it came down to it, it seems that nothing mattered to the D-I schools except whether you could hit 90 on the gun.

I can't argue that D-1 schools love a kid that can hit 90 (who wouldn't) however I have to tell you there are quite a few boys out there pitching in the 80's that are in big time programs. My son and I did a few unofficial visits to various SEC and ACC schools last year. One of the things we were surprised by was the number of pitchers throwing in the mid 80's.

When I mentioned this to one of the coaches he said that every top program had one or two 90's guys but with 4 to 5 games a week there were a lot of mid 80's guys filling important roles on their staff. (This came from a school that was ranked in the top 25)

Right on JD!

5 games a week, no way can even the best programs afford 90 guys let alone find 5 who can hit 90+. 86-88 is the norm.

Sometimes people use excuses their players didn't make it to the top programs because they didn't hit 90. Coaches don't always get it right, I admit, but there is alot more to the equation than people realize. JMO.

You know the saying that we hear alot "Where are all the 90's guys at these D-1 programs"? These 90 guys in HS cant effectively pitch at the college level the way they did in HS. In HS they can afford to just get up there and bring it. In college they have to learn how to pitch and this may mean they now are pitching in the mid to upper 80's instead of just throwing hard. Ive seen guys in HS "throw" 90. Then I have gone to see them in college and they are "pitching" in the 86-88 range.

Could that possibly mean that is why having a certain amount of velocity is important? Could it be that you can throw alot harder than you can pitch? Say a kid throws 87 in HS , what can he pitch at? (83-84)?

Kids that can have great velocity and can pitch with that velocity are special. There are alot of kids that can throw hard. And they can have alot of success against inferior competition. But in order to have success against equal or superior competition they must learn how to pitch. And they much have enough velocity to keep those hitters honest.

Coach May,
Darn good points. It is hard to determine from what somebody posts how hard their son throws even assuming that the numbers are exactly those taken from gun readings. I usually will say that my son threw 79-81 last season. The reality is that he often would throw 77-78 to the first few batters, and move up to 80-81 by the 4th or 5th batter and then get comfortable at 79-80 most of the rest of a game. I've also seen him start a game as low as 76 if his shoulder wasn't 100% loose. He didn't give up many walks, about 2 per 9 innings, but was able to get away with throwing pitches waist high on the inner half to righties when he got behind because of movement and the level of competition he was facing. I don't know what his max velocity was because he was rehabbing from a year and a half without pitching and we weren't going to push to see what his max was. How does that compare with what another person would rate him at? We used a JUGS, Stalkers tend to read a little slower. What velocity would he have to throw at against stronger hitters if he had to have better command, not just better control? I've always told my son he should be pitching 3 to 4 mph off his max velocity, with max velocity being what he can throw somewhere around the strike zone, i.e. going up and in with an 0-2 count hoping to get a swing but generally figuring to set up the next pitch. My guess is that his max was about 82 or 83 and that his "true" working velocity was 79-80. Would most people relate that as 80-83 or 79-80? Lots of questions, no answers from me.

I don't envy scouts and coaches trying to figure out who really has a stronger arm when some kids are out there throwing for the gun and some are pitching. For example, we had a pitcher who threw 1 mph harder than my son, a pitcher who threw 2 mph harder than my son, a pitcher who threw the same speed and a pitcher who threw about 1 mph slower last season. Yet when the coaches happened to gun the kids my son threw 1 inning against weak hitters and only threw a total of 7 fastballs all at 78-79 except 1 at 80. The kid I related as 2 mph faster was throwing hard but also trying to locate to some degree. The one I related as throwing 1 mph harder was absolutely max effort as were the other 2. None of them had much movement other than my son. The reality is that one threw harder than my son but may not have a better arm, (I do think he'll throw harder although not better than my son in the long run.) and the others don't have as good of arms. The results they saw during the season bore out these assessments as my son had the best results but the hardest thrower who did try to locate to some degree was the most dominant when he was on or facing weaker teams.

Nice post. I have always taught our guys to have three fastballs. #1 The fastball you can pitch at all day long. Smooth easy delivery and under total control. #2 Your pump it fastball - where you reach back into that storage tank and bring it #3 Your BP fastball - where you take some off of it and just throw a strike or locate it perfectly.

The reason for this theory of mine was with #1 - that is what you can pitch at. Learn that. Know that. Be comfortable with that. PITCH dont throw. With #2- There going to be times in a game when you need to bring something a little better either in or out of the zone to punch out that hitter - when you really need a k etc - and you need to show to thet hitters that you have that in your arsenal - #3 - Its a very easy pitch to throw without changing your arm slot - your delivery - and the slight change in arm speed will not be picked up if you only use it a couple of times a game - your change is not working or your having trouble locating it - and you have to have a strike but your control on your best stuff is really not there etc etc plus again you show the hitters a different look and plant the seed.

Hitting is timing and pitching is disruption of timing. Hitters will time a pitchers fastball. Maybe not the first ab but sooner or later they will time it and they will get on it. Especially good hitters. Changing speeds on the fastball is a good way to learn how to disrupt the hitters timing. Kind of off topic but you made me think about it with your post.

Im sure some will disagree with this approach that is fine. It has worked well for our guys. But it is important for kids to learn where they can pitch and not worry about how hard they can throw.

Wow. There's been quite a bit of good discussion. While all of the posts have been very interesting, I have to admit Coach May's comments about hitting/timing/disruption are similar to what I have taught my son.

I've told him on numerous occassions as he's grown older how important it is make the hitters think more by changing speeds, not throwing the FB first pitch; basically not allow a hitter to predict what you're going to throw which involves mixing it up as well as making the appearance of your delivery consistent.

To answer a few questions: I don't know the type of guns used. The readings are from showcase camps/tournaments. If I had to guess, the first inning or two is more like in the 82 range; the 84 to 86 range is typically reached in the third or fourth inning.

With regards to velocity, I don't harp on it with my son because I don't want him to "throw to the gun" as people have mentioned. In fact, my son can tell you, he's tired of hearing me tell the importance of being a pitcher, not a thrower. I also remind him of the UNC pitcher from the College WS a few years back (Woodward I think) who topped out at 83mph yet shutout a very talented Clemson team.