Interesting BA article

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Even the best have a hard time predicting the future...

It's an art not a science...

AND....Certainly gives unexpected hope to those who are not exceptionally thought of.....

44
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yeah but what I think I hear infielddad saying is that there should be a little more humility -Baseball America maybe should admit that it perhaps thought a kid might be better than he turned out to be.

Heck with Baseball America over rating someone. Just think how expensive it is for those big league clubs that also over rated them. I think that list looks fairly good and no it's not our list. Out of those 25 you have some cinch big leaguers (if there is such a thing). You also have most of those 25 who might still end up making that list look very good. You can never accurately predict injuries, car accidents, cancer, drug addiction, or someone going football instead of baseball.

Infielddad your son is a great example that BA is....well...what it is. I understand where you are coming from but understand that BA’s success is not measured in the number of players they market but in the number of publications sold. It also must be an overwhelming chore to even attempt to select a few great players from the thousands of players from all over the country, then to assemble them into some sort of baseball pecking order. I have never looked at BA as being wrong or right. BA is just a book of pictures, stats, and opinions and makes for some interesting reading so let’s not elevate it to a status it cannot achieve or ever deserve. BA doesn’t do “right or wrong things” they do interesting things. Now, here at the HSBBW we discuss the real factors that determine success. We look at the TOTAL player! We include:

The pro activity of the parents.
The odds of the player being at the “right place at the right time”.
The lack of preferential treatment afforded the player.
The size of the school
The state he lives in
The reputation of his recruiting service
His family genes
The strength of his team
The GPA of the player
The slope of his shoulders
The twitch of his muscles
The thickness of his beard
The looks on his face
And....of course; his Karma

And of course the all-important height of his a**

quote:

And of course the all-important height of his a**

So True!!

quote:

Originally posted by Fungo:
Infielddad your son is a great example that BA is....well...what it is. I understand where you are coming from but understand that BA’s success is not measured in the number of players they market but in the number of publications sold. It also must be an overwhelming chore to even attempt to select a few great players from the thousands of players from all over the country, then to assemble them into some sort of baseball pecking order. I have never looked at BA as being wrong or right. BA is just a book of pictures, stats, and opinions and makes for some interesting reading so let’s not elevate it to a status it cannot achieve or ever deserve. BA doesn’t do “right or wrong things” they do interesting things. Now, here at the HSBBW we discuss the real factors that determine success. We look at the TOTAL player! We include:

The pro activity of the parents.
The odds of the player being at the “right place at the right time”.
The lack of preferential treatment afforded the player.
The size of the school
The state he lives in
The reputation of his recruiting service
His family genes
The strength of his team
The GPA of the player
The slope of his shoulders
The twitch of his muscles
The thickness of his beard
The looks on his face
And....of course; his Karma

Nice post. Is the HSBBW better than 50% correct for comparison?

Fungo,
Nice list, and best of all it's for FREE!

Infielddad,
I like reading the top 10 player scouting reports on each team, in there you will find some players that were not high picks and given kudos. But I like your idea. I would likek to see a list of players who are progressing faster and farther than predicted in the draft.

Their predictions are based on scouting reports correct? And PG is correct, you can't predict factors outside of baseball.

I have a question regarding top prospects being drafted that have injuries. Don't teams know in advance if there is a problem that could possibly prevent their million dollar prospects from not progressing as tehy should?

quote:

Originally posted by Tiger Paw Mom:

I have a question regarding top prospects being drafted that have injuries. Don't teams know in advance if there is a problem that could possibly prevent their million dollar prospects from not progressing as tehy should?

I think they do, just most of the injuries are stuff that never happened before

quote:

I have a question regarding top prospects being drafted that have injuries. Don't teams know in advance if there is a problem that could possibly prevent their million dollar prospects from not progressing as tehy should?

TPM, here is my understanding. Before the draft, most every player will fill out a questionaire which will ask them about every injury and medical condition. After you are drafted and sign, before you even step on the field you have a physical exam. That exam goes over every detail. If the doctor finds something at that point, it is then considered preexisting and can form the basis for either voiding the contract or allowing the team to waive the condition and move forward with treatment and hopefully rehab. I know of one player last year who apparently failed his physical after the contract was signed. Contract was voided, he had surgery and is back in college where he will play this Spring. So, MLB teams do not always know of the condition in advance. If it existed, was not disclosed and was known to the player, that can void the contract. If not known but picked up with the physical exam before playing, it is then considered preexisting. Then the contract can be voided or not, at the MLB club option.

On the BA side, I am an avid reader both online and every 2 weeks. Read it cover to cover. My point is baseball is a game where our sons fail a lot and their success is often measured by the ability to cope with and overcome failure. I wish BA would, just once, admit they overrated/overprojected or failed to adequately research a player. Can they be wrong...just once? Why is it always the player who has his shortcomings and failures reported?

I know a player that was drafted last year, was injured in post season and remains unsigned today.

Infielddad, For sake of discussion.... As your son continues to improve should BA down play his improvement and report it as just an improper past evaluation on their part or do you think they should recognize his improvement and credit him? Tough as it is I think you and I need to ignore BA. These are opinions generated to sell a product. But since we’re on this subject how would you suggest BA make amends? Wouldn’t it be unfair and insensitive journalism for the staff at Baseball America to publicly admit the player is not as good (or better) than they first thought. I would rather have the evaluation of my son (either increase or decrease) be dependent on his most recent performance rather that be contingent on the past or present opinion of some Baseball America editorialist.

Again, I think Baseball America is nothing but opinions and opinions can never be held to a “right or wrong” template.

When I grill steaks if those eating really enjoy the offering then I am a fabulous chef and my guests will self invite themselves to the next meal, if they are disappointed I will suggest that the butcher unfortunately gave me a poor piece of beef and they will most likely return again satisfied that it was strictly a problem with the meat. This shielding method allows focus to be placed squarely on the product. If I admitted to serving stomach turning steaks I would ultimately dine with my ever smiling dog, alone. BA cannot afford to be accountable.

PCX, interesting analogy .... let's see if I got it


BA is a cook

the system is a butcher

prospects are pieces of meat

fans will eat up most anything served and return for more

mlb guys show up in the chow line
but fans hope/pray that MLB has their own chef(s)

if a bad meal IS served an MLB recipe is responsible




ps: I'll need a little help figuring the dog part

Good explanation by Fungo-it doesn't let BA or any other publication off the hook for missing the mark on player projections.

Ignoring them would be the best option IMO, however how do you ignore them when
we give credit on this site to players and parents chosen by the same publications for making "pre-season" All-American teams or "Top 50" in their class before accomplishing anything on the field?

If BA and others want to project the future that's fine with me, but shouldn't
kudos be given after these players live up to those projections?

Just my point of view.

BTW-There are many players (with parents on this site) who
HAVE accomplished quite a bit and ARE deserving of the compliments. My statement wasn't meant to belittle anyone but to try to put into perspective what these publications
are all about.

May I ask a simple question ?(and I have no oar in the water for BA) why are they now a bad guy after being the good guy for so many years.

If projecting players was a dead on science scouts would not be fired--they would be right all the time-- it isnt that-- it is a projection based on what is seen by those offering the "opinions".

Let me ask you this --what other baseball publication goes out on the limb with their thoughts like BA does? and it is just their thoughts--they like some players and they dont like others as MLB prospects

Folks--I say live with it--enjoy reading their opinions--they wont be right all the time--none of us are--just enjoy it for what it is-- opinions from experienced baseball people

Have a good Grtound Hog Day @!!!

Good point Tr.

Dictionary.com defines the word projection as A prediction or an estimate of something in the future, based on present data or trends.

Everyone has projections on something they think they know something about. We all have our opinions, but many times we dont have all the data to to make a qualified opinion. I hope no one looks at BA as the gospel of baseball talent, but they do have access to the most data for the general public. If they were not doing it someone else would be.

I like BA and actually would like to see more offerings come to market so that even more baseball material existed for the pleasure of my entertainment. The sport and its participants deserve the media exposure. For some the opinion might be classified as gospel for others nonsense, however it is still information offered and is a worthy publication for reading pleasure. It is a cheap read.

My son has been mentioned in BA on occassion and when we felt it was of a positive nature embraced it and when it wasn't flattering tossed it aside with a quick wrist flip, but he never has let it define who he is or how he will approach the game.
It is very easy to discredit the views of any party because you will readily find enough willing people to assault the opinions of another.

Put together a list of 12(8 position 4 pitchers) high school or college players whom you feel will accomplish the most in the future and publish it here so it may be tracked over the next 3-4 years. Time, not opinion, will determine the outcome. Your selections, however, will be determined on information current to you now.

Players mentioned in BA in any of their lists have accomplished enough in the opinion of the magazine to warrant the mention.

"OPINION" is the operative word. Just as it was BA's opinion that U of Miami did not belong in their "preseason" top 25 college list.

Hey, I think they do a great job with their magazine-and there are other baseball mags
that have differing opinions. Wish there were more.

As most know, we do the player rankings for Baseball America and Prospects Plus. Years ago these same rankings were released in our own publication called “The Scouting Report”.

That said, Baseball America publishes there own rankings periodically, that may or may not agree with ours. The article in question is one of those times that BA published their own rankings. This happens a lot right before the draft each year. BA contacts scouting directors from Major League clubs and top Div. I coaches and gets their opinions. These opinions are regarding the draft and who they believe will be the top picks or have the most talent.

If you look at the list of 25 players BA ranked before the 2003 draft… You will see many of these players were selected very early. Some of those early selections, have got off to rocky starts including some that we had ranked very high. But, remember, it was not just BA or us who over rated (if that’s the right word) these players… The most important people in baseball also (over rated) them. It just goes to show there is no exactness to picking the best players. Should these MLB clubs that picked a certain player and paid him a small fortune be scrutinized?... Of course not, mistakes are made in player projection all the time. By everyone who does player projections, not just BA.

Lastly, isn’t BA actually “admitting” they were wrong, by the fact that they publish this list and the results of each player. Do they really need to add… “We were guilty of over rating, so and so?” Doesn’t the article itself show what has happened? If they wanted to hide the facts, why would they publish the article? And maybe admitting they were wrong would be more an issue if they also bragged about what looks like very accurate choices on that list. They didn’t talk about being right, so why talk about being wrong? It’s just an article showing the up to date results of their picks!

The final score regarding the accuracy of any list, comes much later than 2 or 3 years. I think when all is said and done, the list in question might look very good! I’m not saying this because of our association with BA. And we have no problem admitting when we were wrong about a player. No one, in or out, of baseball is immune to making a mistake about a baseball player. It would be very boring if it were any other way!

It's just a magazine! Though a very important one for baseball! I often disagree with things that are written, but am real glad it's available.

As I said, I read BA cover to cover and have for several years. Two points to make. When they are involved in the actual coverage and reporting of minor league and college baseball, I think they do a great job. As reporters of baseball information, they certainly are among the best in their field.
Where the issue exists is when they transition from reporters of baseball information in the minor leagues and college to talent evaluators and draft "experts." There is, to me at least, a very clear line of difference but, personally, I feel BA blurs that line quite well. As talent evaluators they are giving opinions and from what I understand many of those opinions are not based on personal evaluation but rather their scouring the landscape to obtain the information from scouts and coaches who have seen the players. They then assimilate that, with whatever else, and make it theirs. Needless to say, there is a huge financial market for that "service." Doubt BA would survive if they only "reported" on minor league and college baseball.
Fungo, as usual you ask very probing and interesting questions. To be candid, our son has never projected well or rated well with "talent evaluators." That was true in high school, in college, with scouts, and from what we can glean, even in professional ball. If you watch him for a game or three, seemingly the impression he leaves with the guys who make "projections" is not much of an impression. His support and longevity to this point is those that see him play every day for 40, 60, 120 games. The coaches! For whatever reason, while he has never projected well, the coaches who see him everyday are his biggest allies. When the coach is also the talent evaluator, like in high school and college and summer leagues, he has done very well. When talent evaluators are separate from coaches, as in showcasing, college recruiting, scouts, the draft, and now surviving in minor league ball, recognition and progression has been much more of a struggle. Do I bring that realization as a bias when I read BA and their projections? Most likely. Do BA projections bother me?
Personally, bbscout and the scout who drafted our son provided the most solid information to cope with the production vs projection dilemma. Their views: when you hit .300 at every level you play, you continue to play no matter what the projections. Now that I can understand.

Really what it says is that it is very hard to make it in professional baseball. Sometimes these kids were not prepared for the everyday life of a minor league ball player.
Staying in apartments are with host familys, maybe not having a car at there disposal. No time really to enjoy there situation.
Its a ground hog day over and over.
Its tough on these players, to be told your number one all these years, and never had adversity. Always told that you've got it made, just to find out your just another ball player with some skills. And then reality sinks in.
I would think that a player that wasn't pick quite as high would be more hungery to prove himself. Just my take. The EH

Infielddad, Nice post and very well put.
Thanks,
Fungo

Fungo, when is Josh headed to Dunedin? I have asked Jason to introduce himself, say hello, and see if he can provide some "old timer" assistance...to the extent one Spring Training makes you an "old timer".
Jason is going to room with 2 players who got Major league camp invites. Is really looking forward to hearing their stories and experiences. Of course, he can still "trump" most of them with the at bats against RJ. Just hoping the ESPN video of the first at bat has been lost.

Infielddad,
Just climbing in the box against RJ has got to be humbling. (but a memory maker) Josh should get to Dunedin on or around the 1st of March. That will give him a few days to get all the video games and computer hooked up. I'll pass the word to Josh about Jason...Tell him thanks!
Fungo
PS I must have baseball on my brain: Today was a rainy day and I often wear bluejeans on rainy days so I commented to my wife that today sure looks like a “BlueJay” (I meant to say bluejean) type of day. We both laughed!
Fungo