Smoltz is definitely not a "max effort" guy -- at least not at this stage of his career.
When he was closing, he routinely threw in the 95-98 range. Since returning to starting, he typically is 91-93 with his fastball.
Years ago, he threw every slider for maximum break. He pitched with the mindset that he was going to get as many K's as he could. He walked many and was annually among the league leaders in wild pitches.
In contrast, a recent Baseball America article on "best tools" had Smoltz on the cover and listed him among the best control pitchers in baseball. With the exception of the one breakout year he had when he won the Cy Young, his performance the past few years is generally better and more consistent than when he was younger and trying to strike out every batter he saw. Whereas 6-7 years ago folks were saying his career might be at an end, right now it looks like he might pitch well into his 40's, as he tries to build his credentials for Cooperstown.
There's a lot to be learned from Glavine's statement. I definitely think MLB has gone RADAR gun crazy over the last 10-15 years. Here they have guys like Maddux and Glavine staring them in the face, but they still look primarily for guys who throw mid-90's or better. So many young guns get hurt so early. Plus their shelf lives are short because very few pitchers can maintain high velocity into their 30's, so only those who learn what Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz have learned even get a shot at long careers.
This is in stark contrast to past decades when guys would throw in the 85-90 range, pile up complete games (130+ pitch outings), pitch every fourth day and have long careers despite all those things.
What a guy like Roger Clemens proves is that while having great control AND a 98 mph heater is a wonderful thing, a guy who can spot his pitches and mix up his selection can have great success in the upper 80's/low 90's. I saw Clemens go into the 6th the other day with a no-hitter, with his fastball 90-91 and his splitter in the 85-86 range. One of the things he gets by backing off his fastball a bit is that it closes the speed gap with his splitter, which makes the splitter much more deceptive because it's tougher for the batter to differentiate between the two pitches. Smoltz now does the same thing, easing off his fastball 3-4 mph in order to make his primary off-speed pitch, his slider (now shorter and tighter than in years past) closer in speed to his fastball and thus more deceptive/effective.
Maybe it helps if you CAN throw 95+, so that you can ease up and still be in the low 90's. That's about the only justification I can see for the current scouting approach.
But for all the folks wondering where the complete game has gone, why pitchers don't pitch every 4th day, etc., the answer is in the current "max effort" approach that is dominating thinking.
Sometimes I think I detect, in interviews with Smoltz, a touch of bitterness that Maddux and Glavine have surpassed 300 wins while he has not. Smoltz lost a lot of wins to injuries and surgeries. And remember, it was the desire to shorten his outings that first led to his years in the bullpen. The moral of the story may be that had he taken to heart the lessons that Maddux and Glavine did earlier on in his career, he might've been more durable through his 30's and thus, been in a position to get to 300 wins by this time. But Smoltz was a bit more hard headed and took longer to make the transition.
A young pitcher trying to stick in the majors these days might want to learn a few lessons from these Hall of Famers and others (like Pedro Martinez) who have made the transition from hard throwers to professional pitchers.
1. Speed is great but location is king.
2. Fear is a pitcher's friend. Clemens and Martinez get more out of their fastballs because they will throw inside (even go head hunting) and everyone knows it.
3. It's less important that your off-speed stuff break a mile than that you can throw it consistently for strikes and in any count. And the harder it is for a batter to pick up that you're throwing an off speed pitch, as opposed to your fastball, the more effective you will be.
4. Strikeouts are a fun individual stat, but it's a team game, and runs are what determines who wins and who loses. With very few exceptions, pitchers who pitch to contact are more consistently effective. And they have the foundation to have lasting careers.
I look at a guy like Verlander, who has all the stuff in the world, and I see a guy who follows these rules already. To me he is a guy on his way to a long career and, for all the musings about whether there will ever be another 300-win guy, I think he's a real candidate.
