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Definitely an interesting article. More strikeouts, walks, and HR's than ever. I do believe the MLB game will shift back however, as the article alludes to the game is constantly adjusting to itself.
The value of contact hitters who can move a runner over, get on base, and drive in a run with a man in scoring position will be appreciated more in the near future, I believe. It was only a few years ago that the Royals won the World Series with an offense that featured athletic contact hitters.
I think MLB will discover that the 3 true outcome approach that works in the regular season might not be as effective in the postseason
Very interesting article. Thanks for posting.
3and2Fastball posted:Definitely an interesting article. More strikeouts, walks, and HR's than ever. I do believe the MLB game will shift back however, as the article alludes to the game is constantly adjusting to itself.
The value of contact hitters who can move a runner over, get on base, and drive in a run with a man in scoring position will be appreciated more in the near future, I believe. It was only a few years ago that the Royals won the World Series with an offense that featured athletic contact hitters.
I think MLB will discover that the 3 true outcome approach that works in the regular season might not be as effective in the postseason
I don't think no power contact hitters will come back but I could see average/medium power contact hitters like murphy or altuve (hitting 300+ with 20-25 hr) getting more sought after again.
Especially with the new ball you don't need plus power to hit it out, you just need to hit it decently hard at a good angle.
So as a mlb team you can look for contact hitters, make them hit it at a decent velo and angle and there will be enough power.
You need a certain minimum power for it (if you hit like billy hamilton it won't work) but a tad above average is basically enough, you don't get extra points for hitting homers at 110+ mph.
I look at the Brewers young shortstop Orlando Arcia as a good example. Maybe he'll have 20-25 HR seasons but he seems more like a 15 HR per season player. High contact rate, plus plus defense and great speed. He'll have a place in the game for at least a decade barring injuries, same with other plus defensive players at premium positions
Actually the game has already shifted towards good athletes and defenders although not any good defender makes high contact.
One dimensional sluggers who just hit bombs and walk have a much harder time getting big contracts, now the teams like for guys like machado, trout, arenado, bryant who slug and are great athletes.
"Facts are stubborn things" - John Adams
Thanks for posting smokeminside. I can't argue with the numbers, but I can argue with the entertainment value. Strikeouts are overrated, HRs are overrated and walks are pitching mistakes for the most part given that most guys are swinging for the fences and strikeouts are at an all time high in the game per the article. To me, it is sloppy baseball.
I'm encouraged by the last statement and I truly believe what Gallo says....“The game adapts,” Gallo said. “Home runs were down, and then they shot up. The game fixes itself somehow. I don’t think game will be like this for the next 40 years. It will change again, and you adapt to that, and then it will change again. That’s just the way sports works. It may not stay this way forever, but it’s a good thing for now.”
JMO
Actually the future of baseball is not what is in this article....
The future is already here - and it is the "Dodgers". Not the team per se, but how they are structured.
1. Good starting pitching that can take you to the 7th inning. Don't invest in high cost, long contract, starting pitching (unless of course you have the best pitcher on the planet - then you can make an exception) Starting pitching depth is more important over a few "stars" as a) pitching is a fickle proposition.
2. Build a solid bull pen that can bridge you to a solid closer. Use your minor leagues to find this group early in the season because of a).
3. Highly athletic players who can play multiple positions. (yes the days of only being an outfielder or infielder are gone) Defense is a priority as well as speed, but they don't use speed necessarily to give up outs on straight steals.
4. Use lots of data and shift players around and put everyone in high probability positions for every batter. If you watch them in a game, all of the players are looking at cards each time a new batter comes up.
5. Power over a few more strike outs is OK, but pitch recognition and selection is as important. It's part of the probability game.
6. Bench depth with interchangeable players allows getting the right match-ups in critical points in the game.
7. Playoff baseball is a crap shoot, and your odds of getting a championship are greater if you just make it to the playoffs every year. Don't burn out your funnel on a single super star, unless he is affordable.
I may have missed something, but the future of baseball is here today folks and it wears Dodger Blue.
Thanks for the article.
I find the professional game to be pretty meh and boring this season.
BOF posted:Actually the future of baseball is not what is in this article....
The future is already here - and it is the "Dodgers". Not the team per se, but how they are structured.
1. Good starting pitching that can take you to the 7th inning. Don't invest in high cost, long contract, starting pitching (unless of course you have the best pitcher on the planet - then you can make an exception) Starting pitching depth is more important over a few "stars" as a) pitching is a fickle proposition.
2. Build a solid bull pen that can bridge you to a solid closer. Use your minor leagues to find this group early in the season because of a).
3. Highly athletic players who can play multiple positions. (yes the days of only being an outfielder or infielder are gone) Defense is a priority as well as speed, but they don't use speed necessarily to give up outs on straight steals.
4. Use lots of data and shift players around and put everyone in high probability positions for every batter. If you watch them in a game, all of the players are looking at cards each time a new batter comes up.
5. Power over a few more strike outs is OK, but pitch recognition and selection is as important. It's part of the probability game.
6. Bench depth with interchangeable players allows getting the right match-ups in critical points in the game.
7. Playoff baseball is a crap shoot, and your odds of getting a championship are greater if you just make it to the playoffs every year. Don't burn out your funnel on a single super star, unless he is affordable.
I may have missed something, but the future of baseball is here today folks and it wears Dodger Blue.
You forgot getting more depth by faking DL stints and and shuffling players between AAA and the majors
BOF posted:Actually the future of baseball is not what is in this article....
The future is already here - and it is the "Dodgers". Not the team per se, but how they are structured.
1. Good starting pitching that can take you to the 7th inning. Don't invest in high cost, long contract, starting pitching (unless of course you have the best pitcher on the planet - then you can make an exception) Starting pitching depth is more important over a few "stars" as a) pitching is a fickle proposition.
2. Build a solid bull pen that can bridge you to a solid closer. Use your minor leagues to find this group early in the season because of a).
3. Highly athletic players who can play multiple positions. (yes the days of only being an outfielder or infielder are gone) Defense is a priority as well as speed, but they don't use speed necessarily to give up outs on straight steals.
4. Use lots of data and shift players around and put everyone in high probability positions for every batter. If you watch them in a game, all of the players are looking at cards each time a new batter comes up.
5. Power over a few more strike outs is OK, but pitch recognition and selection is as important. It's part of the probability game.
6. Bench depth with interchangeable players allows getting the right match-ups in critical points in the game.
7. Playoff baseball is a crap shoot, and your odds of getting a championship are greater if you just make it to the playoffs every year. Don't burn out your funnel on a single super star, unless he is affordable.
I may have missed something, but the future of baseball is here today folks and it wears Dodger Blue.
The future is the Dodgers?? They have a payroll 30 MILLION higher than any other team in baseball. Their structure is quite simple, spend way more than anyone else. I feel pretty confident that if the last place white Sox added 200 million to their payroll, we would also be talking about how awesome they were too! LOL
The future, past & present of Baseball is: Dominant Pitching WINS
Steve A. posted:The future, past & present of Baseball is: Dominant Pitching WINS
Actually hitting (plus baserunning is more important than pitching. Run prevention is very slightly more valuable than run scoring (an extra run saved improves the Pythagorean record more than an additional run scored) but hitting is like 90% of run production while pitching is only like 70% of run suppression (at the pro level,the rest is defense).
So the actual values might be like 40% hitting, 5% baserunning, 35% pitching and 20% defense (numbers probably not 100% correct).
Of course your SP is still way more important than your cleanup hitter but only because he has 20 PAs compared to 5 for your best hitter.
Dominik85 posted:Steve A. posted:The future, past & present of Baseball is: Dominant Pitching WINS
Actually hitting (plus baserunning is more important than pitching. Run prevention is very slightly more valuable than run scoring (an extra run saved improves the Pythagorean record more than an additional run scored) but hitting is like 90% of run production while pitching is only like 70% of run suppression (at the pro level,the rest is defense).
So the actual values might be like 40% hitting, 5% baserunning, 35% pitching and 20% defense (numbers probably not 100% correct).
Of course your SP is still way more important than your cleanup hitter but only because he has 20 PAs compared to 5 for your best hitter.
Dominik, I think this is an example of where one can get too caught up in the numbers. Steve A said dominant pitching. I think dominant pitching trumps all. Those hitting numbers tend to go in the tank against dominant pitching. All other things being equal, I'll take the team with VERY good pitching any day over the team with VERY good hitting.
Think of it this way: Which team would you prefer in a 7 game series?
Team #1: The best MLB player at each position. MLB Average starters & relievers.
Team #2: The top 4 MLB Starting Pitchers & the top 7 Relievers. MLB Average position players.
It's not a lock, but if you took team #2 you would be a heavy favorite for Vegas odds.
It pains me to say, but that exact scenario played out at the CWS. We had a dominant pitcher, UF had a dominant staff. I fully believe the old adage that good pitching beats good hitting. Our offensive and defensive numbers were better than UF, but ultimately their pitching negated our offense. I do think we went a bit flat in Omaha, but UF starting pitchers were absolutely dominant.
BOF posted:Actually the future of baseball is not what is in this article....
The future is already here - and it is the "Dodgers". Not the team per se, but how they are structured.
1. Good starting pitching that can take you to the 7th inning. Don't invest in high cost, long contract, starting pitching (unless of course you have the best pitcher on the planet - then you can make an exception) Starting pitching depth is more important over a few "stars" as a) pitching is a fickle proposition.
2. Build a solid bull pen that can bridge you to a solid closer. Use your minor leagues to find this group early in the season because of a).
3. Highly athletic players who can play multiple positions. (yes the days of only being an outfielder or infielder are gone) Defense is a priority as well as speed, but they don't use speed necessarily to give up outs on straight steals.
4. Use lots of data and shift players around and put everyone in high probability positions for every batter. If you watch them in a game, all of the players are looking at cards each time a new batter comes up.
5. Power over a few more strike outs is OK, but pitch recognition and selection is as important. It's part of the probability game.
6. Bench depth with interchangeable players allows getting the right match-ups in critical points in the game.
7. Playoff baseball is a crap shoot, and your odds of getting a championship are greater if you just make it to the playoffs every year. Don't burn out your funnel on a single super star, unless he is affordable.
I may have missed something, but the future of baseball is here today folks and it wears Dodger Blue.
BOF - I understand your point but I remain unconvinced the Dodger model will be a successful model. Yes, they have a tremendous regular season pitcher in Kershaw (on DL). Yes they have a tremendous shortstop and very good role players. Bellinger is unconscious and he represents a swing and miss (104Ks) approach (like many Dodger players) that is going to bite them down the road. As others have pointed out they've invested heavily in salary. They are making the Yankees and Red Sox look fiscally responsible. Their team record and stats are bloated from a weak division and a down year in the NL in my honest opinion. Anything can happen in the playoffs and there are no guarantees that heavy investment will payoff in October if some other team catches fire. Recent World Series history has indicated that the highest salary doesn't always win.
Here’s the last seventeen champions from 2000 to 2016 with their MLB salary (opening day) rank according to http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm. I haven't verified Steve's data but lets give him the benefit of the doubt. In fact, the Dodgers have had the highest opening day salary since 2014. It has yielded 0, nada, zilch, bupkis World Series titles since that time. Sorry, BOF I love ya and your Dodger enthusiasm but I'm not buying the Dodger model at this time. ;-)
2016: Chicago Cubs: 14
2015: Kansas City: 16
2014: San Francisco Giants, 7
2013: Boston Red Sox, 4
2012: San Francisco Giants, 8
20111: St. Louis Cardinals, 11
2010: San Francisco Giants, 10
2009: New York Yankees, 1
2008: Philadelphia Phillies, 12
2007: Boston Red Sox, 2
2006: St. Louis Cardinals, 11
2005: Chicago White Sox, 13
2004: Boston Red Sox, 2
2003: Florida Marlins, 25
2002: Anaheim Angels, 15
2001: Arizona Diamondbacks, 8
2000: New York Yankees, 1
I think discussions of "either/or" are off base.
The population(s) from which MLB draws its players are all growing, and what's more, recruitment is happening in more and more countries. The competition, fueled by dreams of winning lottery-type money, is increasingly fierce. But there is no talk of further expansion any time soon. There are 750 roster spots with more and more and more people fighting to break through.
What that breeds is more and more "cream skimming," meaning only the best of the best of the best of the best will get there.
I think Murphy and Altuve are great examples. Why settle for high average OR power? Why not require both? That's where they are. That's where Trout, Harper, Arenado and others are. Gallo is a guy just starting out, and just now starting to raise his average (it was .180 not long ago). Three years from now, he may be hitting .280 with who knows how many HR's.
It's like arguing, would you rather have velocity, great breaking stuff, or pinpoint control? Answer: MLB will require you to have all three. We will see more guys with Kershaw/Scherzer type of stuff.
I think you will also see more and more guys who peak in the 26-30 age range and who are out of baseball by age 34. That's always been the case, but I think the player who is so good that he can compete with the 26-30 year-olds when he's 38 is going to become more and more rare. The career longevity of MLB stars will fall to be more on par with the NFL or NBA.
Actually, I think this is a trend that's well underway. The only reason you don't see it in the numbers is that the pitchers get better at the same time the hitters get better. And the fielders make plays every game these days that you would never have seen prior to 1960.
The one thing that would be nice is if players didn't just focus on tools, but on the finer points of the game. Play gets surprisingly sloppy some times. The mental side of base running is where it seems to show most often.
The other thing we need more than anything is to really restore the full strike zone that's specified in the rules, and fire any umpire who refuses to follow/enforce the prescribed rules. That is, after all, their one and only job, so if they aren't going to do it, bring in someone who will. It's not like there aren't guys lined up for that job opportunity, too. Even those "K Zone" boxes you see on TV are smaller than they're supposed to be.
Fenway,
I understand, yes the Dodgers have deep pockets, but they are transitioning to a lower payroll and this will continue as old contracts come off the books. Believe it or not they active payroll for the team that took the field this week was ~ $87M.
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los...les-dodgers/payroll/
Here is a WSJ article on their approach.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/t...tr=yahoo&ref=yfp
My point was to not get into a discussion on the Dodgers and their payroll, but how their players are becoming more interchangeable and not fixed to one position, more athletic, and they are risk adverse to large single player contracts. (with a few exceptions) Clearly pitching is king in the playoffs but like Kansas City proved you don't necessarily need great starting pitching, but pitching depth can get you there.
Playoff baseball is highly risky and a bounce here or there can change a game, so their approach is to try to get to the playoffs each year and if they do this consistently they will eventually break through. I saw this at my son's college the perennially has made the regionals and they finally broke through to the CWS and won it. My son told me he thought his freshmen team was the best in his four years their and they lost a heart breaker in the regionals to get knocked out of a CWS appearance.
SUDS mentioned the White Sox, in two years the White Sox will be a powerhouse IMO as they are taking the same approach, without the financial depth of the Dodgers.
Just an observation for discussion.
BOF - Understood, however I couldn't get to WSJ article. So I guess you're saying the bloated payroll hasn't worked so they are reinventing themselves with a different approach. That different approach is lower future lower payroll, and be more selective with free agents. It kind of sounds like the 2017 Yankees when they were able to jettison the contracts of Arod, Teixeira, Jeter, Cano, Pettitte, etc,,,over previous years, . The Yankees went through something similiar over the last few years, and now they're back. The Dodgers are where the Yankees were financially a few years except the Dodgers are now finding themselves in first place. I guess we're just going to see how this plays out. If the Dodgers win it all there will be 29x copy cats.
BTW - Speaking of the Yankees......Dave Roberts (Dodger Mgr) was a major part of my all time favorite MLB moment...bar none. I can still see him getting that hand into second base before the Jeter tag. Dave Roberts is a God in my house.
Fenway, Love-love-love Dave Roberts!!!
Actually it has been the long term plan for the Dodgers to get to a sustainable payroll, but being a big market club and coming from the deep dark McCourt era (whom I am sure you are well aware of from your Boston days) they recognized they had to win short term.
Here is the article.
Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi took over the Los Angeles Dodgers’ front office before the 2015 season and quickly drew the ire of a city built on the power of stardom.
Inheriting a record payroll and massive expectations, they began running the Dodgers less like baseball’s wealthiest organization and more like the small-market teams they came from: They shunned the most expensive free agents and headline-grabbing trades in favor of protecting the farm system and adding complementary pieces of the puzzle.
“One of the things the front office has gotten a hard time for is making tons and tons and tons of small moves and until this year not making that big sexy move for the big name,” third baseman Justin Turner said. “The byproduct of that is what you’re seeing right now.”
Three seasons later, the Dodgers still spend more than anybody else. They shelled out $240 million to construct their opening-day roster, about 20% more than their next-closest competitor, according to Baseball Prospectus.
But by spending their money differently—think of it as Moneyball, with the luxury of a whole lot of money—this year’s Dodgers could make history. They entered Wednesday on pace for 114 wins this season, in striking distance of the all-time mark of 116 held by the 1906 Chicago Cubs and 2001 Seattle Mariners.
These Dodgers didn’t simply load up on stars. They assembled a powerhouse by focusing on the fringes of the roster, stocking their cupboards with high-quality insurance policies for every contingency. The Dodgers don’t have more elite players than everybody else, but they do have more good players than everybody else, brimming with more useful assets than any of their peers.
“It wasn’t trying to raise the top,” Turner said. “It was trying to bring the bottom up.”
The Dodgers’ financial might—derive
Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi took over the Los Angeles Dodgers’ front office before the 2015 season and quickly drew the ire of a city built on the power of stardom.
Inheriting a record payroll and massive expectations, they began running the Dodgers less like baseball’s wealthiest organization and more like the small-market teams they came from: They shunned the most expensive free agents and headline-grabbing trades in favor of protecting the farm system and adding complementary pieces of the puzzle.
“One of the things the front office has gotten a hard time for is making tons and tons and tons of small moves and until this year not making that big sexy move for the big name,” third baseman Justin Turner said. “The byproduct of that is what you’re seeing right now.”
Three seasons later, the Dodgers still spend more than anybody else. They shelled out $240 million to construct their opening-day roster, about 20% more than their next-closest competitor, according to Baseball Prospectus.
But by spending their money differently—think of it as Moneyball, with the luxury of a whole lot of money—this year’s Dodgers could make history. They entered Wednesday on pace for 114 wins this season, in striking distance of the all-time mark of 116 held by the 1906 Chicago Cubs and 2001 Seattle Mariners.
Dodgers outfielders Chris Taylor, left, Enrique Hernandez, center, and Yasiel Puig, right, celebrate after a recent win. PHOTO: KATHY WILLENS/ASSOCIATED PRESS
These Dodgers didn’t simply load up on stars. They assembled a powerhouse by focusing on the fringes of the roster, stocking their cupboards with high-quality insurance policies for every contingency. The Dodgers don’t have more elite players than everybody else, but they do have more good players than everybody else, brimming with more useful assets than any of their peers.
“It wasn’t trying to raise the top,” Turner said. “It was trying to bring the bottom up.”
The Dodgers’ financial might—derived from a deep-pocketed ownership group, Guggenheim Baseball Management, and an enormous local television deal—still matters. They can withstand unproductive contracts; they’re paying Carl Crawford $21 million notto play this year.
And they can sustain injuries thanks to a practically unending array of viable replacements. The Dodgers’ currently have about $110 million in player contracts idle on the disabled list—more than the payroll of nearly a third of major-league teams—but haven’t slipped off their pace.
Even with 60% of their projected rotation sidelined—Clayton Kershaw, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy—they still have arguably MLB’s best staff, led by Alex Wood, Rich Hill and Yu Darvish, a splashy trade-deadline acquisition. The Dodgers’ team ERA leads the majors by almost half a run.
“It certainly creates a little more margin for error,” said Zaidi, the general manager.
Considering their backgrounds, it makes sense that Friedman and Zaidi would follow such a methodical approach.
Friedman, the president of baseball operations, transformed the Tampa Bay Rays from a laughingstock into a perennial contender. Zaidi cut his teeth with the Oakland Athletics under Billy Beane, Mr. Moneyball himself. The Dodgers offered an opportunity to apply the principles that worked with those franchises, but with triple the budget.
Under their stewardship, the Dodgers have avoided long-term contracts; hoarded prospects like Cody Bellinger, a breakout star of the 2017 team, rather than trade them for short-term gain; and stockpiled undervalued assets by prioritizing depth and versatility.
“That’s been the model: have a lot of good players—and some great players,” Zaidi said. “Having resources creates a broader opportunity set. We can cast a wider net.”
The Dodgers have continued to win despite losing ace Clayton Kershaw to injury in late July. PHOTO: LISA BLUMENFELD/GETTY IMAGES
Friedman and Zaidi inherited a sizable portion of their gigantic payroll, which ballooned in the wake of the $8.35 billion broadcasting agreement between the Dodgers and Time Warner Cable in 2013. When they took over, the Dodgers owed five players—Kershaw, Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier—more than $400 million through 2020.
Outside of Kershaw, their dominating ace currently out with a back issue, those players have hardly contributed to the Dodgers’ success. They traded Kemp in December 2014—agreeing to pay $32 million of the $107 million remaining on his contract—and released Crawford in June 2016. Ethier has missed the entire season, and Gonzalez, a five-time All-Star, has appeared in just 49 games due to injury.
The team has thrived without them thanks to a vast collection of talent accumulated with the benefit of patience, effective scouting and good fortune. They have nine hitters with at least 250 plate appearances and an on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .750 or better. They also have 14 pitchers with at least 20 innings and an ERA under 3.90. Both lead the majors.
“Some of the players making the most impact for us this year weren’t necessarily brought in on blockbuster, headline-making deals,” Zaidi said. “They were brought in on baseball trades that we made a little bit under the radar.”
Turner, the Dodgers’ leader in OPS and batting average, initially signed a minor-league contract in 2014, and he developed into one of the game’s premier sluggers. Chris Taylor arrived in a seemingly minor trade with Seattle in 2016, and he has magically turned into one of their best hitters, boasting an OPS over .900. Wood, a top starting pitcher, and key reliever Luis Avilan came over essentially as secondary parts in a three-team deal in 2015.
Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner celebrates with right fielder Yasiel Puig after a recent win against the Twins. PHOTO: JAYNE KAMIN-ONCEA/REUTERS
Meanwhile, much of the Dodgers’ greatest production originated from their own farm system. Perhaps their best overall player, 23-year-old shortstop Corey Seager, will make $575,000 this season, while Bellinger, their rookie sensation who leads the team in home runs and RBIs, will earn less than $500,000. They also have two prospects, pitcher Walker Buehler and outfielder Alex Verdugo, ranked in the top 30 in baseball by MLB.com.
“We had a lot of teams demand Cody Bellinger in trades,” Zaidi said. “He’s better than all those players we could have traded for already.”
The Dodgers have also used their financial muscle to absorb problems that would cripple other teams. Most teams must rely on replacement-level call-ups when they spring a leak. The Dodgers patched all their holes with quadruple-strength duct tape.
Here, too, money helped the Dodgers. When they traded second baseman Dee Gordon and pitcher Dan Haren to the Miami Marlins in December 2014, they agreed to pick up $12.5 million to cover their salaries. In return, they received Austin Barnes, their backup catcher hitting .285, and Enrique Hernandez, a crucial utility man who has played seven defensive positions this year.
The Dodgers point out that their payroll has actually decreased after topping out at around $291 million in 2015. It will likely continue to fall to what Zaidi described as a “more sustainable level” as some large holdover contracts expire.
Their payroll hasn’t helped them reach the ultimate goal, either. Despite four straight division crowns, they’ve yet to advance past the National League Championship Series. Their remarkable depth doesn’t matter nearly as much in the sprint of the playoffs as it does in the marathon of the regular season.
This season, however, could be different. And if doesn’t work out, the front office will spare no expense to try again—a fact not lost on the players.
“They show you how much they want to win,” All-Star closer Kenley Jansen said. “They show you also that they understand how tough it is to win.”
I think it is both. The dodgers did shed payroll and get younger but at the same time they spent over 100m in international signings going over the pool every time they could, they have hired like 5gms for assistant jobs and they were able to pay players 10s of millions to play for someone else.
Friedman did a great job but still without they money that approach wouldn't have been possible.
Friedman did small market sabermetric baseball on steroids.
Probably what the astros or cubs did is more feasible for the average team but they had to tank to rebuild because they could not pay an average mlb payroll just to get rid of their old, useless players (kemp, crawford...).
Still a great job by friedman, he did everything he could with the means he had.