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Is Werth Worth $126,000,000?

Three BaggerThree Bagger1,000+ posts
Every time I think it takes some vestige of intelligence to be a general manager in the Major Leagues one of them takes his team's payroll and fiscal future and stomps on, kicks it, leaves it in the ditch. Now I don't have trouble with a team spending 126 million on a guy like Albert Pujols at 30 or ARod at 27. But this guy will be 32 years old in May of 2011! How many times have you heard discussions of the prime years of Major Leaguers and virtually everyone agrees that 32 is about the end of the prime years, not the beginning. But of course there are reasons to sign Werth to this massive contract:

Washington is ready to contend-- Okay, if you say so, considering their best pitcher, Strasburg is going to miss the whole 2011 and it remains to be seen if he comes back strong in 2012. Another of their starters Jordan Zimmerman, the pitcher is also returning from arm problems. Bryce Harper won't even be able to help for another couple of seasons at least.

According to ESPN four other 31 or older guys have signed 7 or more year contracts. Let's see how those worked out:

Alfonso Soriano--Still strangling the Cubs
Jason Giambi--ouch--with or without steroids
Kevin Brown--some things are just best left unsaid!
Alex Rodriguez--if this was such a great deal how come everyone and I mean everyone complains about it. Also, its going to be interesting to watch a 40-42 year old earn almost 30 million dollars per year.

Boros referred to Rizzo the Wash. general manager as Rizz--Doesn't this make you nervous if you're a Nationals fan--I'd be chummy too if this guy just gave me about ten gazillion dollars since last year.

Washington had to show how good this deal was by taking stats and slapping the fans in the face with them. Example:

Even though Werth hit only .186 last year with runners in scoring position, he hit at least .260 the previous four years. .260 plus-- Now that's something to write home about!

Werth joins Utley as the only active player to hit at least 80 HRs and steal 50 bases in the last three years. Wow--that's a wopping 27 HRs and 17 stolen bases a year! Yup, that's worth 19 million dollars a year.

Werth has 686 ML hits at age 31. Hate to see what he's going to do after he gets out of his prime starting in two or three years.

Washington said they have to overpay to get the good free agents. Yeah, that makes it alright to be paying this guy 19 million when he's 36, 37, and 38.

Washington seemed on the right track by paying the two special first picks they signed massive bucks and locking up Zimmerman at third. But there is no way they should have spent $126,000,000 dollars this way, this year. They could have paid 50 or 60 million to keep Dunn and still had 75 million more to spend.
Last edited {1}
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TPMTPMHSBaseballweb Member since 2003
quote:
Originally posted by Bum:
Small market teams love this folly. They can trade for multiple players and laugh all the way to the bank.

You can sell tickets. Or you can win.


Bum is right, he'll play for a year or two with them and then some big market team will take him for 3-4 prospects.
RJMRJMHSBaseballWeb member since 2007
Is Werth the kind of player who fills seats? Is he going to put the Nationals over the top and in the playoffs this year or next? Will he be the last free agent of his kind to be available in the next two or three years for the Nationals? Is he worth 126M to anyone not named Rizzo? One response answers all these questions.

Werth took advantage of this being a down year for free agent, power hitting position players. I never saw a number attached to his name. But I figured he would get four years at 60M. He's not a superstar. He's had a couple of very solid seasons back to back. The word I heard was the Sox and Tigers were only offering three and four year contracts (haven't looked at the sports page yet today).

I guess it's easy to sign with a losing organization for 126M/about 76M after taxes, than play for a contender if you don't believe you can live on 60M/ 36M after taxes and sign a contract worth something in five years. I'll never begrudge a player signing for whatever some fool is willing to offer. But how much is enough where a player would prefer to play for a losing team? The Nationals have "potential." They haven't proven a thing.
Last edited by RJM
D dswann100+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by TPM:
quote:
Originally posted by Bum:
Small market teams love this folly. They can trade for multiple players and laugh all the way to the bank.

You can sell tickets. Or you can win.


Bum is right, he'll play for a year or two with them and then some big market team will take him for 3-4 prospects.


So this is a strategy? Take on the liability of an 18m per contract for 7 years with the outside hope of trading for prospects. Assuming he's stays healthy and is productive? What am I missing?
RJMRJMHSBaseballWeb member since 2007
quote:
he'll play for a year or two with them and then some big market team will take him for 3-4 prospects.
I don't believe Werth is tradable for three or four prospects now. He's not a stud. He's a player who's had two solid years (assuming hitting .186 with risp is solid). He wasn't even the #2 position playing stud on the Phillies. Let's see how he responds to being The Man with the expectations of a huge contract.
Last edited by RJM
fillsfanfillsfan1,000+ posts
The day Werth choose Scott Boras as his agent you knew he was going for nothing less than top dollar.

The Phillies offered 3 years at $16mil per with an option for the 4th year, similar to what RJM said the Red Sox and Tigers offered. I heard Rizzo say he has to over pay to get players interested in the Nationals.

I agree about taking less money to play for a contender but how can anybody leave $50-70 million on the table. Werth may be a very rich man but I don't know how happy he will be daily playing in front of 10,000 fans instead of 45,000.

RJM, he will put fans in the seats. It's amazing to sit in the right fiels seats and hear grown women screaming to him the whole game. Wouldn't be surprised if Boras brought that up during negotiations. Roll Eyes
Last edited by fillsfan
Three BaggerThree Bagger1,000+ posts
He will be virtually untradeable in two or three years so there is no strategy attached. (See Vernon Wells). That's the thing some of these GM's don't seem to get. Even if he gives you two or by luck, three years just like his previous two years, this trade will be a disaster. Just when they are really ready to compete as Harper and Strasburg mature into stars, they're going to be paying a guy who hits 18 Hrs and bats .260, eighteen million dollars of their payroll. GM's--just a little hint--why don't you try looking ahead of the two or three years before you get fired and someone else has to live with your idiocy.
Last edited by Three Bagger
SportsdawgySportsdawgy10+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by Three Bagger:
Every time I think it takes some vestige of intelligence to be a general manager in the Major Leagues one of them takes his team's payroll and fiscal future and stomps on, kicks it, leaves it in the ditch. Now I don't have trouble with a team spending 126 million on a guy like Albert Pujols at 30 or ARod at 27. But this guy will be 32 years old in May of 2011! How many times have you heard discussions of the prime years of Major Leaguers and virtually everyone agrees that 32 is about the end of the prime years, not the beginning. But of course there are reasons to sign Werth to this massive contract:

Washington is ready to contend-- Okay, if you say so, considering their best pitcher, Strasburg is going to miss the whole 2011 and it remains to be seen if he comes back strong in 2012. Another of their starters Jordan Zimmerman, the pitcher is also returning from arm problems. Bryce Harper won't even be able to help for another couple of seasons at least.

According to ESPN four other 31 or older guys have signed 7 or more year contracts. Let's see how those worked out:

Alfonso Soriano--Still strangling the Cubs
Jason Giambi--ouch--with or without steroids
Kevin Brown--some things are just best left unsaid!
Alex Rodriguez--if this was such a great deal how come everyone and I mean everyone complains about it. Also, its going to be interesting to watch a 40-42 year old earn almost 30 million dollars per year.

Boros referred to Rizzo the Wash. general manager as Rizz--Doesn't this make you nervous if you're a Nationals fan--I'd be chummy too if this guy just gave me about ten gazillion dollars since last year.

Washington had to show how good this deal was by taking stats and slapping the fans in the face with them. Example:

Even though Werth hit only .186 last year with runners in scoring position, he hit at least .260 the previous four years. .260 plus-- Now that's something to write home about!

Werth joins Utley as the only active player to hit at least 80 HRs and steal 50 bases in the last three years. Wow--that's a wopping 27 HRs and 17 stolen bases a year! Yup, that's worth 19 million dollars a year.

Werth has 686 ML hits at age 31. Hate to see what he's going to do after he gets out of his prime starting in two or three years.

Washington said they have to overpay to get the good free agents. Yeah, that makes it alright to be paying this guy 19 million when he's 36, 37, and 38.

Washington seemed on the right track by paying the two special first picks they signed massive bucks and locking up Zimmerman at third. But there is no way they should have spent $126,000,000 dollars this way, this year. They could have paid 50 or 60 million to keep Dunn and still had 75 million more to spend.
Does the signing of former Reds short lived phenom, George Foster with the Mets ring a bell? No player is worth tying up for 7 years and that much money per year after a few really productive years, whether they are a pitcher or player. No one!!
Three BaggerThree Bagger1,000+ posts
I think this deal will be similiar to the Soriano deal in overall impact. Many people (correctly) panned that deal right from the start and it has be an albatross around the Cub's neck. Impossible to trade him except in the rare instance there is a mutual disaster contract on another team that would be a better fit for your team. Even then, it doesn't account for the lost dollars which could have been spent more wisely. I think that GM's are under such pressure to DO SOMETHING or make a splash that their brains freeze and they make fatal mistakes like this.
Last edited by Three Bagger
Backstop-17Backstop-17500+ posts
In the press conference yesterday announcing the contract, I recall hearing the Nationals or Boras say something to the fact that Werth learned at the Phillies about having great leaders around him as a younger player, and that now he will be counted on to be a leader on a farm oriented team.

Those of you from Philadelphia may be able to comment better, but I don't see him as the great locker room guy they are expecting him to be. One thing that sticks out to me is seeing him scream at a father in right field, while the son sat there and learned how to cuss in a competitive environment. That was true leadership on display there.
coach2709coach270910,000+ posts
Have they released Pudge or did his contract expire? He's the kind of guy you can have for leadership. This deal is probably going to hurt the Nats for a long time coming.

What's worse is this is just going to drive salaries up overall in the next few years. Other midlevel players will use him and his numbers as justification for high contracts. Baseball salaries are out of control and there's no end in sight. One reason is the owners can't agree to limit contracts or they will get in trouble with the government for collusion like they did in the 80's (I think it was the 80's).

I can't blame Werth for taking the money because when you talk those numbers it boggles the mind. Several million is life changing but $126 mil is generational changing - meaning if he does it right his great grandkids will never have to work. But how do you keep these salaries from going up?

I have a kid who will graduate this year who is projected as a top 3 round pick. I told him if he ever chose Boras or his company as an agent I was going to kick him in the tail. Boras is one of the reasons baseball is in bad shape - he does his job too well.
RJMRJMHSBaseballWeb member since 2007
quote:
What's worse is this is just going to drive salaries up overall in the next few years. Other midlevel players will use him and his numbers as justification for high contracts. Baseball salaries are out of control and there's no end in sight.
I believe this was said in 1968 when Carl Yastrzemski was signed to a three year, 500K deal. Ty Cobb once said high salaries were ruining the game. As long as there a people lining up for tickets and teams make money, salaries are not out of line. Do I think Werth will be overpaid? Yes. But all it takes is one GM to think he's worth it.
Last edited by RJM
bsbl247bsbl2471,000+ posts
I like Jason Werth, he has decent pop in his bat, an above average arm in RF, and he plays the game hard! Is Werth Worth $126 million? No he's not. As someone stated earlier, there isn't a ton of Free Agent bats available right now, so the Nats pulled the trigger and are willing to take a chance. If you're a Washington fan, you have to love the fact that the ownership is doing everything possible to bring a winner to DC. I have to assume they'll move him to LF when Bryce Harper is called up in 2-3 years?
YoungGunDadYoungGunDadHSBaseballWeb member since 2005
quote:


Originally posted by coach2709:

I have a kid who will graduate this year who is projected as a top 3 round pick. I told him if he ever chose Boras or his company as an agent I was going to kick him in the tail. Boras is one of the reasons baseball is in bad shape - he does his job too well.



Coach....first let me say that I couldn't agree with you more about Boras. Just seeing his name makes me want to hurl at what he has done to this game.

However, you probably know that this young man has family members and/or Mentor's telling him that this man (Boras) would make him rich for a very long time. That's the sad part to all this.
Three BaggerThree Bagger1,000+ posts
kt333,
For the last three years ARod has averaged 32 HRs, 109 RBIs, and .286 batting average. His OPS of .847 was .001 from the worst full season of his career. He stole four bases while being caught three times, so apparently the hip problem has ended his days as a stealing threat. His salary last year was $33,000,000 according to ESPN rosters. When it's three seasons in a row of declining numbers and the player is 35 years old its a sign that this isn't an abberation but the true level of performance. I expect a little more for $33,000,000. Sorry.

But we can look forward to the the other seven years of declining numbers for an exhorbitant price too.
Three BaggerThree Bagger1,000+ posts
Another thing guys,

These guys, ARod , Jeter, D. Ortiz, etc. do not bring in massive numbers of fans on their own. That is a missconception. If ARod's career or Jeter's ended tomorrow, you would not see any impact on the Yankee's attendance. People go to see the Yankee TEAM and of course these guys plus other exciting players make that happen. Usually, the players who are proven to increase crowd numbers are great pitchers like Koufax, Ryan, or Strasburg who bring an incredible extra element to games. Yes, a milestone game or a record HR pace late in the season can make a big difference but many position players by themselves don't bring out the crowd. Babe Ruth was an exception. I think a couple of guys like Mays and Mantle who could do things we never saw on a field before or since also impacted the crowds some.
J HJ H5,000+ posts
I agree that all of the salaries listed are ridiculous, including and especially Werth's.

I would like to add one thing to the posts though: Three Bagger- as a lifelong Yankee fan (grew up 15 minutes from the stadium, I scored the final game of the '96 World Series from the living room of my parents' home...I was 6 years old), I said to my friends in the last few weeks that if Derek Jeter wasn't resigned to the Yankees for 2011, I'd never set foot in that stadium or don Yankees apparel ever again for the rest of my life. A guy like that brings more to the game than just what he presents on a piece of paper, or what is visible to the innocent fan. And I'd venture to say that the Yankees would break a lot of hearts of a lot of loyal fans if something like that were to ever occur.


Jayson Werth is a good Major League player in my mind. Nothing more than that. Never hit over .300, never more than 100 RBIs. 681 career hits, .367 career OBP. One-time AS, .267 postseason batting average. He'll be 32 next year. $126 million?? Makes me wonder what Pujols is worth...

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