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44 observations/sense....for JC players/parents...
Pure California DI Numbers Game?...The initial West Coast "DI market" is much bigger than the Pac 10...In addition he Big West, the WAC, the WCC and the Mountain West Conference all play in and around California. Crunched numbers last night after the post...There are 35 baseball schools in these conferences (omitted 3 schools who simply don't don't do JC's). In a rough count there are 356 Non freshman roster positions (transfers included as they "seasoned" players) posted on the official program websites. This is 9.6 per team. This means that historically there are nearly 9-10 spots on each roster available in this DI market. With roster shrinkage, this is roughly 25% of the DI rosters by average, and we have yet to see if the shrinkage offers more JC opportunity. Lesson: Opportunity DOES exist for the talented and the diligent.
More numbers game/a case study....The Riverside JC site offcially lists 14 eligible sophomores for 2008, 3 signed DI, 4 with DII's, 4 at NAIA. Of those 3 DI signees, 2 were in CA DI's. The numbers are at least as good and likely better than the chance of DI out of HS, and you have 2 years of on the field experience, and a solid academic footing should you choose to. Lesson: Choose wisely, Know the transfer rate for your CA JC.
The role of academics in DI Decisions...Talking to CA JC parents and watching many CA JC programs, would submit that NCAA DI academic requirements are nearly as big a barrier to Ca JC players as athletics. Many JC players, get behind academcially, take the wrong classes, undervalue the academic side, and simply end up without a DI option. This is not universally true, some schools and players make a real effort. Lesson: Those who work hard at staying on top of DI academics the options/numbers improve dramatically.
Expanding the market?...No problem with going outside the state...CA JC players are scattered throughout the country. Yesterday a Big 12 coach came and watched son's JC practice. Lesson: CA JC's get watched, opportunities exist, work hard in all areas to keep all your options open.
Expanding the market II?...No problem with CA DII, DIII, NAIA. Tough baseball.
The "TR HIT Rule"... At some point you are going to have to beat the odds. At some point you are going to have to prove yourself more worthy than someone else. This is not a bad thing, it is the nature of the beast. Lesson: Welcome to a competitive world.
More numbers game...It only takes 1, yours. Nothing better than beating others long odds. Lesson: Go get that single spot.
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