Looking at things needing immediate improvement.

Originally Posted by Swampboy:

Applying statistical analysis to a 1-26 team is sort of like doing an autopsy on a bomb victim: the study might reveal specific details, but the horror of what happened is already plain to see. It may not be worth the bother.

I hope you didn’t mean it this way, but it sounds as though what you’re saying is a team like ours isn’t worth spending any time on. If that’s true, why even bother having a team?

Originally Posted by redbird5:

So, how do you propose they throw more first pitch strikes when it appears (in your mind) that they can't throw many strikes at all?

And how do they "pitch to contact" when they can't get the ball over the plate?

If I was their pitching coach I would comment on that. Your characterization of what’s in my mind isn’t very accurate.

I never said they couldn’t “get the ball over the plate”. All I’ve done is point out one area of many where the numbers show a distinct deficiency. It’s up to those who are coaching to determine how to address that deficiency.

If I’m asked, I’ll give my opinion. Until then, all I’ll do is continue to try to point out the most obvious deficiencies. That’s the main reason I was asked to come to this program, and that’s what I’ll continue to do.

We have our 2^nd game this afternoon against a team that pretty much whupped up on us in a preseason scrimmage, so we’ll see what happens. Our starter will be the boy who threw the most innings on Saturday and who’s Stk % was 56.4 and 1^st Pitch Stk % was 43.7. I’ve been asked to track this stuff by game to see if there’s improvement and that’s what I’ll do. I’ll certainly be hoping for the best for the boy and success for the team.

Originally Posted by roothog66:

In my experience - and I've tracked the stat for many years - you like a good first strike percentage (say 52%), but once you start looking at guys with much higher first strike %, you're looking at guys with very high eras as well. A guy with a 60% first strike % is probably getting shelled. Note this is youth and HS level I'm talking about.

Of course I’m only looking at HSV data, but it covers a wide range of pitching skill. If anything, the pitchers I see with a 1^st pitch Stk % over 60, are overwhelmingly the better pitchers.

First, you were dealing with a pretty high level of HS competition and I was dealing with younger kids. I also wouldn't use "overwhelming." You only have one kid with any appreciable innings thrown who was under 50% fsp and he looks in the ball park with the guys over 60%. The rest seem all over the board with no clear coorelation. However, I'll admit it's enough to convince me that, at least with better high school pitching, more data would probably indicate high FSP lead to better era's. Just not sure I'm convinced that he limited info shows lower fsp commonly leads to higher eras (though I assume it should be true, your numbers, due to limited sample size, don't necessarily show it.

Now, all nitpicking and kidding aside, I am very supportive of what you're doing this season and hope the coaches can be convinced to pay attention to your work.

The "in your mind" comment was referring to your assessment of the players' abilities.

To be more specific, you said "I’m seeing pitchers that are at BEST average HS pitchers to whom it’s an accomplishment to throw any pitch in the strike zone..." so, my question is valid.  If your assessment is correct, that throwing a simple strike is an accomplishment, how can you expect them to throw a strike on the first pitch?

If your goal is to debate on the semantics of words you've chosen, I am not interested.

I will admit that I don't know as much as some of you, but I have always felt the most important pitch is Strike One.  If the hitters at the high school levels have a lesser ability to know the strike zone & have a tendency to chase, I would definitely say it benefits to get FPS.  As a HS pitcher, I would think it would help a ton to be ahead in the count, because there would be less pressure on you, and more pressure on the batter.

Stats,

Please stop putting words in people's mouths.

You create tempests in teapots by distorting what people say and then taking offense to your own distortions, which bear little resemblance to what people actually said.

I did not say the team "isn't worth spending any time on."

I said there's not much value in statistical analysis of a 1-26 team because the problems they need to address first don't require statistical analysis for the coach to recognize them. 

By all means, go ahead and keep your stats. When the team starts winning 35%-40% of its games and is semi-competitive in its league, your data and interpretations thereof may prove useful to the coach.

Until then, performing statistical analysis is like trying to read the temperature gauge when your car engine is fully engulfed in flames. You don't need the gauge to know you have a problem, and the problem you do have is bigger than the gauge was designed to diagnose or describe.

Statistical analysis of Charlie Brown's team would yield lots of interesting numbers, but those numbers would not reveal that they have a dog playing shortstop, that the catcher cannot throw the ball back to the pitcher, and that two outfielders stand together engrossed in conversation while ignoring the game.  The coach needs to see those things with his own eyes. Let him fix the big, obvious stuff. Look at the stats later--when the team is playing a semblance of the real game.

Of course, the players are worth spending time on! My point was that statistical analysis is not needed yet to decide how to allocate the time spent on them.

Gentlemen, start your engines.

I definitely don't think compiling the stats would hurt, as who knows if this year's version is still a 1 & 26 Team.  However, I do agree with Swamp that if the team is epically bad, and even marginally bad, the coach should know what the major issues are without looking at a stat sheet.  Most coaches, fans, and players can use the "Eye Test" to figure out where a bad team is deficient.

Originally Posted by roothog66:… Just not sure I'm convinced that he limited info shows lower fsp commonly leads to higher eras (though I assume it should be true, your numbers, due to limited sample size, don't necessarily show it.

I think you’re missing something here. I never said anything about a correlation between FSP and ERA, you did. What I said was the average HS pitcher in my data has a significantly higher percentage than our pitchers as a group.

Now, all nitpicking and kidding aside, I am very supportive of what you're doing this season and hope the coaches can be convinced to pay attention to your work.

Thanx. I really do appreciate the thought. In my entire life, I’ve never been in a situation like this one, and neither has the HC, so what’s going on are using a lot of tried and true things while experimenting with things that might help the situation.

At the old school, we had the advantage of a big time HS coach with all kinds of cred coming into a new program, so he shaped it from the very beginning. Not only was he good, but he had the advantage of a great ex-ML player helping him with the hitting and IF play. He also had the advantage of a retired DI coach with 35 years experience helping with pitching. On top of that, being Dustin Pedroia’s HS coach and having him coming around to talk to the boys really gave the program a lot of heft.

This program isn’t necessarily bad when compared to all the other HS programs out there, but it is bad when being judged by people who participate on a board like this. After all, folks who participate on boards like this aren’t likely to tolerate bad or subpar programs. Their being participants shows that.

I’ve only been associated with these folks for a couple of months now, but the difference between this program and the old one, or even my son’s HS program with was rife with problems is stark. There isn’t one player on any of the 3 teams who has the slightest idea that HS isn’t the end of his baseball career. All they do is come out, do the best they can, and hope for some success. Try to imagine not even one snotty, entitled, swaggering attitude out of 40+ players.

The parents are a slightly different story. So far I haven’t had to listen to the braggadocio I used to hear in at least 50% of the parents about how their kid went to this showcase, played for that travel team, had the private coaches, etc.. There’s not even 1 kid that I know of who played on any summer team last season, let alone the tournaments and other accoutrements. I have heard some pride about their kids making the team, and even more from a couple parents of starter, but there’s no talk about what to do to impress scouts or catch the eye of some college coach. What I’m saying is, right now it’s still all about HS baseball as a game, not as a path to fame and fortune.

We don’t have any super coaches who’ve been doing this for 30-40 years and have all the answers or the connections to get them. In fact, out of the 3 HCs, only 1 has coached at the HS level before. So what’s happening is everyone’s doing the best they can with what they have, without any expectation other than to learn a little bit about the game and have some fun. IOW, it’s what HS baseball should be about, because out of the 50,000 or so HS teams out there, there’s a lot more teams like ours than like the last school I was at. When you’re in the top 100, there’s really only a few hundred teams that can relate.

Don’t get wrong. I’ve had a great time being with great teams and great players because for the most part the kids are terrific, the parents are friendly and caring, and the coaches do a fine job of getting players prepared for the next level. But so far this team “feels” like it might be much more rewarding.

I hear what you're saying, stats. And while I agree with swampboy that car gauges don't matter when the engine's on fire (great analogy), I also agree with you that this could be rewarding.

It's an old story really ... a bunch of underachievers figuring it out.

I wish them well.

Stats - I am curious if the school is a football or basketball power?  I have seen schools where the football team is king and it bleeds out to the whole town so that something like baseball is kind of a spring thing to do for some of the athletic kids.

If this is the case getting a handful of the kids to focus on baseball in each class can turn the baseball team into a more athletic team in very short order.  With athleticism usually comes commitment and eventually wins.

Originally Posted by luv baseball:

Stats - I am curious if the school is a football or basketball power?  I have seen schools where the football team is king and it bleeds out to the whole town so that something like baseball is kind of a spring thing to do for some of the athletic kids.

If this is the case getting a handful of the kids to focus on baseball in each class can turn the baseball team into a more athletic team in very short order.  With athleticism usually comes commitment and eventually wins.

The school isn’t a football “power”, but it does pretty darn well in one of the strongest leagues in NorCal. I believe that if this coach gets the time, he’ll draw in more and more of those “athletes”. It’s just not a quick process to turn an entire program around after 10 years of futility.

Originally Posted by jp24:

I hear what you're saying, stats. And while I agree with swampboy that car gauges don't matter when the engine's on fire (great analogy), I also agree with you that this could be rewarding.

It's an old story really ... a bunch of underachievers figuring it out.

I wish them well.

It isn’t that the numbers have a lot of meaning, it’s trying to instill the belief that someone’s at least paying attention, and that it isn’t just a throwaway program. We’ve all had games against teams like this one, where you don’t even want to go to the game because they have so little chance. Then to make things worse, the good teams usually play the “scrubs”, which is embarrassing, or use the game to have their regulars put up great numbers which is just plain insulting.

As I’ve said, I understand the mentality of those who just write the program off as they would a car that was on fire, but I’d rather try to remain positive and hopeful because the kids in the program deserve support. Most of those who use forums like this one don’t have much of an idea what it’s like to get laughed at, ridiculed, and pounded into submission by all but the very worst of teams. But these kids spend just as much time at team practices as the best players in the best programs and deserve at least respect rather than to be written off.

Yes, they’re underachievers, but mostly because they haven’t had the opportunity to achieve, which makes every forward step that much more empowering.

Thanx for the good wishes.