Making it to AA

Did you intend to offend every Milb player who was selected after about the 10th round or signed as a free agent and, in the same post, go on and belittle those who didn't make it to AA?
Do you have any idea of the skill and mental toughness it takes to play 144 games in High A ball in either the Florida State or California League, and hit .275 or win 8-10 games?
Players like that get released all the time.

the reason things happen, sometimes aren't all that important.
playing for a paycheck is really the culmination of a lifes work. you've made it to the elimination round, that's a great achievement.

it's only one chapter in the book of life,but a very difficult one to put down..

quote:

Originally posted by infielddad:
Did you intend to offend every Milb player who was selected after about the 10th round or signed as a free agent and, in the same post, go on and belittle those who didn't make it to AA?
Do you have any idea of the skill and mental toughness it takes to play 144 games in High A ball in either the Florida State or California League, and hit .275 or win 8-10 games?
Players like that get released all the time.

There's a statistic. It's a number. I'm curious what it is. It has nothing to do with offending anyone. It's an accomplishment to become a professional athlete at any level. It's more of an accomplishment to make it to AA ball. I've heard many times from "experts" (who I'm sure aren't trying to offend anyone) there's a fine line between AA ball and making it to the majors. They never said there's a fine line between high A and making it to the majors. It's why I asked. Therefore, I'll ask as politely as I asked the first time out of interest for the number .... Does anyone know the number of players drafted who make it to AA ball?

Before I move on I want to apologize to all of the following ...

- LL'ers who didn't make the middle school team
- middle school players who didn't make the freshman team
- freshman players who didn't make the JV team
- JV players who didn't make varsity
- high school players who couldn't play D1
- high school players who couldn't play D2
- high school players who couldn't play D3
- college players who weren't drafte
- minor leaguers who don't make the majors

These numbers are discussed all the time as part of funnel process? We discuss the percentage of players who make the majors for a day or a career. Must we stop these discussions out of risk of offending a player whose journey ended somewhere along the path? What is so sacred about the statistic of making it to AA ball as opposed to any of these other levels?

i'm quite sure your son doesn't suck, no need to diss him. i know you have friends whose kids are MILB players and you know the drill.

i heard 3% of drafted players make the show. so maybe 8% to 10% make AA. not very accurate i'm sure.

i just glanced at the twins AA roster. my son was drafted in 06. only 3 or 4 players there from 06. 7 or 8 from the 08 MWL team.

If I may add my observations (remember this is my opinion only).

It is true that the bulk of the players drafted are to provide a team for those that need a team to play for, but that doesn't mean that every player doesn't have a chance to move forward and a lot depends on each organization and their needs.

There is a reason why there are so many teams at the low class/high A level. This level provides more instruction and a chance for most players to adjust to the long season and what is expected and to see if they are willing to make the challenges put forth to them (remember every player's development is different). There is a thinning of the herd as the player advances to high A. And unfortunetly a lot of it depends on park factors and the league itself and what each organization needs. For example the FSL is very pitcher friendly, where the TL is hitter friendly. I do beleive a lot depends on where you play as well. It's a bit easier playing on a cooler New England night than a 104 degree late afternoon. For pitchers
the ball acts differently in the dry heat than in the wet heat, and this means it's all about adjustment. That's really what it is all about.

I think the break between who will move forward and who doesn't comes at that AA level which is very different from high A. For pitchers, that is often times where it is determined who will be starters and who will be releivers and which hitters will become starters and which will be sub guys. A high A player can excel at that level but struggles each and every outing in AA.

A lot of people say once you reach AA you are just a step away, I don't subscibe to that theory. You still will find those that will eventually go to ML, but the herd still is being thinned out. And even more starters will now become releivers and relievers will become starters (pitchers). The position guys will switch roles as well. There are many adjustments at each level for each type of player. More depends on the organizations needs at the time. For example there are a couple of hitters on Springfield's AA roster who have had breakout seasons,one a first baseman, now where is he going to go, STL has one first baseman who isn't going anywhere too fast. Most likely he has developed himself into one nice trade player, remember you are always playing for 29 other teams as well. For some that is your only chance for advancement.

The bottom line is that no matter which level you are at, the whole idea is trying to figure it all out, and at each level there is a lot to figure out and it does take time. For instance, DK tells me that IHO there is little differnce between the level of skill between the AA and AAA hitters, the only diffeernce is that the AAA guys are very much seasoned and have figured out pitching. Most likely every AAA can play at the next level, skill wise, the only difference is mental. You will also find many FA at the AAA level that are used to fill in the needs while the younger guys are still developing and not to be rushed. There is no guarantee that any player, unless he has been placed on the 40 man roster will advance further at some point. There are also lots of guys who are just organizational guys, fill in when needed but never become part of the 25 man roster.

I am not speaking of the phenoms that whizz their way through the system, but about the greater portion of players that spend 4-6 years at the lower levels.

There is one more thing, at the AA and AAA level winning championships becomes much more important, it is very much a reflection of their development (farm) system, where most take much pride in showing off. This can be achieved without having future ML players on each team, but players who very much buy into not having i in the word team.

I am not sure of the percentage of players that are drafted who make the ML clubs, but it's obviuos the percentage is extremely low. Not because these guys don't know how to play or have the skill, but because there just isn't enough room at the top.

I did some recent research on something similar. Although cursory, the numbers are pretty close and are readily available at baseball-reference.com. Over the past 20 years, a little less than 7 percent (approximately) of players drafted in the 11th round spent at least one day in the Major Leagues. The percentage who spent meaningful time in the Major Leagues is far less than that.

What this tells me is that you can be very, very good and still not be good enough to truly make a living playing baseball. I don't think any of this will come as a surprise to many people.

quote:

Originally posted by jemaz:

Over the past 20 years, a little less than 7 percent (approximately) of players drafted in the 11th round spent at least one day in the Major Leagues. The percentage who spent meaningful time in the Major Leagues is far less than that.

What this tells me is that you can be very, very good and still not be good enough to truly make a living playing baseball. I don't think any of this will come as a surprise to many people.

It makes one wonder what those numbers are for the subsequent rounds after Round 11. wow.

I guess it can be said that having your name called on draft day is an absolute honor that a player was recognized of being good enough to play at the next level. The level that all our players at some time dreamed of playing at.

Most will not make it to the show as we all know that. But think of the countless doors of opportunity that will be opened to them during and long after they play in the MiLB. Is it worth going at any round? I'd have to say yes to that question if it's your dream.

IMHO

YGD

There was a six part series on cable a few years ago about six D'backs prospects at AAA Tucson. The D'backs GM said 2% of minor leaguers will walk down the runway at a MLB park. 1% will earn a living playing MLB. He called it the worst career choice every baseball player in America would die for the opportunity. But regardless of where drafted the player gets the chance.

What was funny on this show was Carlos Quentin after being called up, looking in his roadtrip envelop and remarking, "The per diem is more than my minor league paycheck."

A "step away" ---- from "something".


For instance today was one of those steps for Chris Burke a former 1st rounder from Tennessee.
MiLB Player bookmark

*Read his "status" on the top of his bio page.

Thread with useful numbers.

The above doesn't shed any light on RJM's original question, but it does show that 8-9% of drafted and signed players do spend at least a day in the Majors.

RJM, BaseballReference draft page would allow you to compile the information, if you have enough patience and desire....

FWIW, the average time for players in the majors is 4 years.

Last night the Memphis Cardinals released a 4th rounder from 2002, drafted by the cubs he played 4 years in the majors.

RJM I saw that show, the GM is right. AAA is referred to as the parking lot, you just sit and wait your turn for a chance or in some and many cases, you are released or traded. Or in the case of (Carlos Quentin) rehab assignment.

Something else I have learned, you will see a lot of AAA hitters go down to AA. That is sometimes so that they can get more at bats, they go through the line up faster than in AAA games.

Regardless of the statistics, this is a game where talent gets you in and many, many do get released before their time, it's a business based on numbers and need. There aren't too open positions at the top, as we all know. The percentages are the way they are not because of lack of talent, but there is essentially no where to go.

A friend's son said he didn't enjoy AAA ball in a certain organization. The team used AAA as a place to mostly park former MLB'ers in case of injury at the MLB level. Many of the players spent their time whining they belonged in the majors instead of enjoying the wins. They would whine they had to wear their pant legs up which was uncool. He said the fun former MLB'er was Lima.

When Carlos Quentin was in AAA (on that show) he was on the way up along with Chris Young (made it), Brian Barden (released a couple of times, now up with Marlins), Dustin Nippert (released and up with Rangers), Casey Daigle (released a couple of times and up with Rangers) and Bill Murphy (released and up and down with Jays).

quote:

Originally posted by RJM:
They would whine they had to wear their pant legs up which was uncool.

Not sure about that, in AAA Memphis you get to wear your pants down for the first time in pro ball.

AAA essentially is in a league by itself. It's used to service the needs of the big league as far as players needed when someone gets hurt or an extra arm needed and a place for the players who have outgrown the AA level to mature with those guys.
That's it.

Three years ago this kid was in AAA with the Mets. At that time all Mets minor leaguers were required to wear the legs up.

Quote from Benito Santiago: I look like a freak'n mosquito.

Quick side question, but minor league teams require you wear your pants up??

*Sorry if this is interpreted as an obvious question, I've never had a son in the minors*

quote:

Other than getting the call to the majors, AA seems to be a significant line in the sand separating the men from the boys in the journey.

I think thats the part that struck infielddad (and me too a little) as a bit...I'll try to use a better word...naive?

I know what you meant...and I don't think I would have understood this if not for having watched it firsthand with my own son and his teammates over the years...but it is hard, really hard to ever make it to college ball (at any level), then the minor leagues (any level), A/AA/AAA (at any level) and MLB (WOW!).

I used to make comments to friends while at games about a player not being very good (actually, I said it a different way ). I don't do that anymore...actually never again...because the truth is that any player I watch at college and above is WAY better than I ever was or could have been. The truth is that my current HS son is way better than I ever was.

There are plenty of "men" who didn't make it past HS ball...or any level thereafter. There are plenty of posters here whose sons stopped after HS, college, rookie/low-A/high-A and they are pretty darn talented. I know, its just a phrase ("separating the men from the boys"). And the guy sitting behind me at one of my son's first college games who had all kinds of nasty stuff to say about him was just saying what I used to say too about any given player on the field who had a bad day...but I won't do it again. Its too hard to get 'there'...its pretty special and I admire the heck out anyone who can play the game with a lot of skill...at any level.

But back to what I think was the intent of your question. Is AA one of the big leaps? I have heard it is. My older son is in high-A this year and I can see that it is a big leap from previous levels...its rather obvious to me anyways...now that is. And I know that there are indeed AA players who are just a phone call away. But a scout also once told me that a typical AA team really only has 3-4 (he might have said 2-3?) true prospects. Don't know what his definition of "prospect" was...but thats what he said.

So are the other 21-22 players on that AA squad just "boys?" Not in my book...but I doubt thats really the way you meant it anyways.

AA is considered the biggest step in professional baseball other than making it to the top.

Not all players in professional baseball are outstanding. There are thousands of players who never get the chance who have more talent than a few who are in pro ball at the lower levels.

Each step of the way is a big move. At the lower levels you either move up in a reasonable amount of time or get released. Players at the AAA level can stay there for a long time. Some actually make a career out of being a 4A AAAA player. These are the up and down types between AAA and MLB.

Most players out of high school will make every stop along the way to the top. College players tend to skip the rookie leagues in AZ and FL. Of course, there are a few who skip a level along the way. One of my sons was at every possible level and probably spent the most time in AAA.

Most all players should be very proud of accomplishing college or professional baseball careers. There are many players released that end up making it to the top with another team.

The actual difference in ability between most high level minor leaguers and most big leaguers is a very fine line. Often it involves luck.

Regarding "separating the men from the boys"... maybe calling it separating the better prospects from the others, would be a better description. The better prospects are either at AA or higher or they are sure to get there. Many outstanding baseball players never reach that level. Roster spots are limited and it's a dog eat dog business.

All baseball players should be respected until they prove they don't deserve any respect. Unfortunately there are some of those types and there's no line in the sand to separate them.

The terms "so the prospects have teammates" and "separating the men from the boys" came from pro scouts I had conversations. They didn't live in the era of PC and called it as they saw it. It's their terminology.

quote:

Originally posted by RJM:
The terms "so the prospects have teammates" and "separating the men from the boys" came from pro scouts I had conversations.

No question scouts used these types of terms. I've sat in front of a scout while he ripped every good player in our area. I wouldn't post some of the comments he made...even in a general sense. Its out of context for this site and I really see no purpose to be achieved by posting his phrases or words. Sometimes, people say, that scouts try to find out whats wrong with a player rather than whats right. Its their job to separate the 'men from the boys,' not mine (nor yours IMO).

Again, I doubt you meant anything disparaging when using them...but its not 'your' language and you could be more respectful of the sons (and parents) on this website by not using the lingo.

I will never again diminish a player who didn't make it all the way. I will never again rip an MLBer who hits .220 or gets lit up on the mound. Just too hard to get where they got...its just a point of view I didn't see before but now do.

RJM,
You are not conversing with a group of scouts on this board.
This is a group of parents and players to a large extent.
From the posts I have made since 2004, it does not take too much to recognize I have a strong affinity and support for the players. Too often, folks in Milb view them as a commodity, just like cattle. I don't respond well to that approach, as you can see.
To me it was perfectly fine to ask how many make it to AA.
Why add all the demeaning stuff that is a reflection of MLB/MILB and the way they view players?
Have you read "Bullpen Gospels" or "Minor players, Major Dreams?" If not, I recommend them to you.
As I said, many in MLB/MILB management have a way of looking at players like they are a commodity, like cattle being graded for quality. That is all they see and that is the way the talk about players.
When you are with or talk with the players, you quickly understand they know this.
I have thought that is one reason for the way the players bond in Milb. It is a protective mechanism to being treated like a commodity, like cattle being graded for quality.
Experience also suggests there are issues beyond talent that impact your question.
Injury is one.
One 2004 draft pick who signed for $10,000 proved in short season A that he was a "man." He ended up never playing above short season A. The reason: ran into a fence in the last game of 2004 and injured his wrist. He then injured it again in Fall instrux and it never healed. He then had a battle with cancer for 18 months and was released in the Spring of 2006.
I sat with him in the Spring of 2006 and tried to offer some input on how he might go about trying to negotiate an "injury settlement." While we were doing this, he was showing me how he could pop bones up and down in his wrist as evidence he could not play because he could not swing a bat...(the team MD cleared him to play and the team was fighting any type of settlement.)
Take a look at the wonderful story of Daniel Nava and the painful one of Aaron Mathews. The latter has hit .300 and been an All-Star at every level of Milb since 2004. Has never stepped a foot on a MLB diamond.
Daniel's story is what dreams are made from, but, in addition to overcoming amazing odds through tons of hard work, mental focus and tenacity second to none and great performance at every level of MILB, he got lucky with injuries depleting the Sox system to get him his chance. Kevin Frandsen in the Giants system would be another example but he finally got moved and a chance and his now hitting well over .300 for the Angels.
To turn it around, there are plenty in MLB/MILB management who consistently prove they don't have a real clue. They consistently have poor drafts, consistently fail to develop players through their minor league system, they consistently having mediocre to losing teams and they consistently make decisions that cause their talent to want to get out of the system as soon as permitted.

Something that I have grown to appreciate over the years is the significant filtering that goes on at every step along the way.

Numerically, the greatest fallout is probably 12 to 13 year old. The percentage of kids who play baseball through 12YO in this area is probably around 75%. At least 50% of those stop playing after they are 12. Certainly the fallout from 12YO to Freshman in HS is tremendous - on the order of 90% in my area.

From HS to College is another tremendous drop off. Of the players in my son's league who were in his 2008 graduating class - right around 80 kids - I am aware of 5 who are still playing in college, 2 years later. Of those, only one is still playing for the same school he started with - the others have all transferred at least once.

From College to the Pros is something I have personally observed only from afar - but the skill and speed of even the lowest levels of professional baseball amazes me every time I see it.

Having watched how hard players have to work to continue on at each level, for me, I have nothing but admiration and respect for every player who sticks it out and chases their dream to its end.

As for those who make it all the way - well my signature says how I feel about them...

08

From what I have seen and heard, as PG say, the road to the big leagues for most is serendipidous to say the least. My son's college catcher was a 2007 3rd round Brewers pick. There were about 8 catchers between him and Milwaukee after his first pro season. He has improved every year, from a solid D1 catcher in 2007.

The Brewers drafted a HS catcher #1 in 2008. He decided to switch to MIF. Then last year Jason Kendall got old and expensive. His replacement Greg Zaun got hurt last month and the AAA prospect catcher decided he wanted to switch to outfield and went all the way back down to high A.

Now neighbor kid Jon Lucroy is now the starting catcher in Milwaukee, batting over .300, drawing daily praise in the paper from his manager and I am sure pinching himself every day. HE skipped AAA.

(Luckily) He has never been hurt. He could have been drafted by Minn. and spent the next five or ten years hearing about Joe Mauer.

You spend one day on active duty in the armed forces and you are going to be a veteran. One day in pro ball and you were a professional baseball player.

Scouts say many things. Heck... You would be surprised at some of the bad things said around our office. I get mad when our scouts write negative comments in our scouting service that have no real value about players.

This is a public message board. There are many players talked about here that I don't think are that talented. Some times those players are mentioned by those who are against the whole PC concept. There's no need or value in downplaying any player on this public forum. I don't consider it PC, it is called politeness and respect.

At the same time, I hate censorship as well, but this site is about baseball players and I'm positive Bob didn't build this site to downplay any baseball player. That said, I believe once they hit the Major Leagues, they are fair game for discussion.

I don't think anyone meant any harm and maybe this could be an interesting discussion if different terminology were used. I could upset a lot of people repeating what scouts have said. I know that there weren't any names mentioned, but there are many outstanding professional players that it pertains to.

quote:

Originally posted by jemaz:
I did some recent research on something similar. Although cursory, the numbers are pretty close and are readily available at baseball-reference.com. Over the past 20 years, a little less than 7 percent (approximately) of players drafted in the 11th round spent at least one day in the Major Leagues. The percentage who spent meaningful time in the Major Leagues is far less than that.

What this tells me is that you can be very, very good and still not be good enough to truly make a living playing baseball. I don't think any of this will come as a surprise to many people.

While not addressing my original question I did a sampling research similar to yours. I did a sampling on four MLB teams. After choosing the Red Sox and Yankees out of fan preference and curiosity I selected the Royals and Orioles as an offset. The numbers weren't different.

I broke down the rosters by 1-3 round, 4-10, 11-20, 21-40 and 40+ and free agents who could have been drafted (ex. Nava). I included the injured list. What isn't accounted for are non-American free agents.

Rounds 1-3: 51% of the draft eligible players
4-10: 27%
11-20: 11%
21-40: 8%
40+: 3%

If I can figure out some accurate way to determine the number of A players who get promoted to AA without it being too complicated I'm going to give it a try. I was hoping someone would know.

Someone mentioned fate (ex: Brewers catcher). A friend of mine had a killer AAA year in the minors for the Yankees. Had the Yankees been willing to give him up as part of a trade for Rod Carew he would have become a starter for the Twins. The trade didn't happen. He was called up at the end of the season. In the Columbus airport parking lot, he broke his ankle in a pothole. The next year he was told to join the Yankees as soon as the AAA playoffs were over. He got his wrist broken in the playoffs. He never fully recovered and never played a day in the majors.

Read S. L. Price's, "The Heart of the Game." Its a biography of Mike Coolbaugh...the coach who was killed by the line drive about 3-4 years ago.

Mike was a career minor-league all star player (AAA) who got a couple of callups...suffered some late season injuries that created more "bad luck" and ultimately ended up a coach just months before the tragic accident.

The book is sort of two halves...1) his life as a minor league player (by reading this you'll realize that luck is involved) and 2) about the accident and aftermath for his family (very difficult to read, brought tears to my eyes...literally).

Its a well-written book and you will get more insight into the general question being asked...about separation of a minor leaguer from a major leaguer.

The most important traits any of these guys have - IMO

1) The ability to focus on what they need to do today.
2) The ability to focus on what they need to do tomorrow to get better.
3) The ability to ignore the myriad number of "experts" who tell them what they cant do and what they arent capable of doing.
4) The ability to ignore hype - both good and bad (and more true now than ever before)
5) The desire to win

IMO

I have a good friend who played several years in the Majors. He once told me that some of the most gifted players he ever saw during his playing days never made it in the Majors. One comment has always stayed with me "The one thing that every guy has that ultimately makes it in the show is the belief they belong there. There are a lot of guys good enough they just don't believe they belong, really believe they belong."