Seniormom, that is a fabulous post IMO.
The way the NCAA controls the DIII process, it is imprecise, at best, for coaches and players. There isn't a NLI so a coach has no idea who to anticipate will be on campus the first day of school. Every successful DIII coach can talk about the number of players who deposited...and never showed up. One year, my son's former DIII coach ended up 4 weeks before school with no catchers at all, even though 2 committed and deposited. Boy did he have to scramble but then ended up with 2 catchers who shared the duties the next 4 years.
The next year he had one catcher/ recruit deposit who showed up along with 3 he had never spoken with until the first baseball meeting.
This doesn't even consider the vagaries of players returning, transferring, quitting, girlfriends, injuries etc.
The issue for DIII's is not a one way street where coaches overrecruit. There aren't easy solutions. Players and families deposit and keep up that DI dream, change their mind, don't play, etc. and many times never tell the coach they are not coming or not playing.
College recruiting and college choices are extremely difficult. Add in the vagaries of baseball and it is even more so. Some will do all the right research and still be disappointed. But, IMO, too many do not do enough homework, do not watch enough games/practices, hear only the good from the coach, leave way too much to chance, underestimate how good the quality of play can be at better DIII's, don't show up in shape... and then blame the coach when things don't work the way they anticipated.