Nathan Kirby

FYI, whenever the MLB Scouting Bureau ID's you as possibly a top 200 pick, they send a rep to your home to collect a urine sample for drug testing. (It's quite intrusive, because in order to assure no shenanigans the guy has to watch the kid do his business the whole time.) They gather other info, too, but I think the urine sample is the deal breaker.

(SEE NOTE BELOW CLARIFYING THE ABOVE. I in no way meant to impugn Nathan at all. I'm just saying that you can't leave things lingering right up to draft day. That is, the testing deadline is a real deadline for deciding, if you choose not to participate at all.)

It never occurred to me that someone would have that potential opportunity and not participate. So I'm not sure if this means he's totally ineligible or just ineligible to be picked in the first 200 picks. Still, with the new CBA imposing limits on draft bonus spending, it's hard to imagine a later round pick getting the big time bonuses of previous guys who fell in the draft due to the "unsignable" label but then later signed when the money went up.

So I guess the Kirbys have decided to be totally "unsignable."

I don't see the wisdom in that, but it's their decision to make.

Only 1 word comes to mind...

WOW!

Rich
www.playinschool.com

I didn't know the exact process so thanks Midlo for the information. The privacy issue certainly seems reasonable, but the thing is, unless something unforseeable happens, he'll be doing his business in front of a rep in three years anyway.

To me, it's always better to have more options than less options, but if he's that committed to college then more power to him. For what it's worth, Keith Law had him ranked as the #92 draft prospect nationally (including high school and college players).

I hope he has a great three or four years at UVA.

I'm sorry Midlo, but this probably the wrong time to bring that part up, many will read this and assume the urine test is why he refused. I am sure that was not your intent but many may read into your statement wrongly. for what its worth I have had to deal with this aspect and it can be an upsetting/uncomfortable situation but is VERY neccesary.

This has nothing to do with a drug test. Nathan is simply very committed to going to college.

Whoa, let me be clear, that was not what I was getting at at all!!!

I have to apologize if anyone took it that way.

My only point was, there is a point in time by which you have to have done certain things in order to stay on the list of guys who are draft eligible. Some might think you can just do nothing indefinitely and then see if they call your name during the draft or not. And for most guys it does work that way, but not if you're considered one of the top 200. If you're in that select company, then you either act by the deadline, or you have made your decision and at that point there's no turning back.

I know Kirby well enough to know that there would be absolutely zero chance of anything that would come up in a urine test. All I'm saying is, he's reached the point where he's made his decision and it is final, even though the draft itself is still some weeks away.

All interesting perspectives.

Personally I believe in having options. We encourage our children to do well in school and stay out of trouble so they have more options and the "best" options when the time comes to make that final decision on where to go and what to do. We then encourage them to do well in college and maybe post grad in order to have options on our career path which then gives us more options when deciding where and how to live.

I just don't understand why any person (or their parent) would intentionally eliminate any options. Going to school is the right choice for Nathan in my personal opinion - no doubt. I think getting a college education is a valuable life decision (but that's my opinion). The funny thing is that making yourself eligible for the draft doesn't mean you don't go to college. you might get drafted and offered a sum of money that doesn't make foregoing college worth it.

However, if you get taken in the top half of the 1st round (wasn't out of the realm of possibility for Nathan) and offered seven figures plus free college whenever you choose to go - that's a horse of a different color.

Isn't the whole idea - regardless of baseball - to make a good life for oneself? Wouldn't "life-changing" money PLUS a free college education satisfy that ultimate desire?

As for "being distracted by an alluring alternative" - well, that certainly isn't the whole purpose of life or education in my opinion. Don't we want our children to have EVERY OPPORTUNITY possible and then let them make an informed decision based on the best available information?

But one thing is for sure - decisions are much easier to make when we have no options at all. I just hope that whoever advised this path is ready to justify it all to Nathan should (God forbid) anything go wrong between now and 2015.

Wow...all this because a prospect chose to forego the draft in favor of a college education? So what if he and his family made their decision now rather than after the draft? They did not eliminate their options, they just made their decision earlier than some. Obviously they knew the potential $$$ that were out there, weighed their options at that time, and chose a different path. Given the percentages of HS pitchers that make it to the big leagues as opposed to college pitchers, I'm not so sure it wasn't the right decision. Sure, he could always go to school later and MIGHT have ended up better off financially, but his college experience wouldn't be the same...sometimes its not all about money.

Also, with the new CBA, I'm sure the mlb teams appreciate knowing now rather than wasting a top 10 draft pick and losing the value of that pick in their allotted pool of money for those top 10 picks.

I have to respectfully disagree with you Chris Taylor. They have eliminated the draft as a realistic option by not participating in the predraft requirements. Also, going through the draft does not eliminate getting a college education - it's not an either / or - it's a Now or later.

I am not at all saying that going to college is the wrong decision either - I think Nathan is going to benefit a great deal from moving out of his house and going to college.

As for the teams appreciating it - sure, but those questions about signability would have been answered before anyone pulled the trigger anyway.

I completely agree that it's not all about the money. I just resist the premise that keeping options open means it's just about the money. I also don't necessarily agree with you that going back to school after taking the pro route means it's a worse experience than going directly after high school. That's the same leap in assumption as speculating that going pro after college is better than after high school. None of us have a crystal ball - which is my point.

Personally, when I played professionally I thought the players who had some college were definitely better prepared for the pro experience than kids right out of high School. I also experienced the reality that kids who signed right out of high school were better prepared for college when they went back after their playing days were over than were kids who went to college right out of high school.

I experienced both sides - went to college then got drafted then went back to finish. I wish I knew what I knew at 25 when I was choosing a college and a major at 18. Those decisions last a lifetime too.

The truth is that just about everyone is more mature at 22 or 24 than they are at 18. Regardless of their chosen path.

Bottom line is that it isn't a decision about College or Pro - It's a decision about College now or later with a huge calculated risk element. Ultimately I truly believe the UVA experience is the best decision for Nathan - I just am shocked by the decision to completely take an option off the table before it's time.

We can agree to disagree I guess. Taking the offer off the table "before its time" is your opinion only. Obviously if the Kirbys felt that there was a set amount of money that would cause them to forego Nathan's commitment to UVA and opt for MLB, they would have left the door open, but the decision had to be made at some point. Why wait for an offer when your mind is made up? You can debate all you want the pros and cons of their decision, but I have a hard time understanding anyone debating the timing of the decision and I applaud them for letting everyone know up front.

Danny Hultzen's situation coming out of HS was very similar (I heard that they repeatedly told scouts not to draft him...that he was going to school). It worked out OK for him

quote:

Originally posted by Chris Taylor:
Danny Hultzen's situation coming out of HS was very similar (I heard that they repeatedly told scouts not to draft him...that he was going to school). It worked out OK for him

Perhaps the new MLB draft slot money was a factor as well. Last year, OF Josh Bell told every MLB team he was going to the Univ. of Texas, but signed with the Pirates after getting a $5 million signing bonus. Can't do that anymore.

Hultzen was indeed VERY strongly committed to UVA coming out of high school. But he did still do what it took to be draft eligible. So no matter what might have been said by him or his parents at the time, he left the door open. Which suggests that there was some number (or maybe a particular team) that just might've turned his head. Maybe we just never found out because the number never got that high or the team wasn't the one he really hoped for.

I know that's the process Midlo Son went through that same spring. I also know how much Midlo Son was offered, and I can honestly say that even with the subsequent derailment of his pro aspirations by injuries, he made the right decision. He'll walk the quad in about 11 days, and given that apparently he was destined to have the physical issues, having that diploma and some strong job prospects is nice. (And it's really nice that his "baseball job" paid for an awful lot of it!)

But if the offer had been first round money, he definitely would've signed back in 2008.

I have heard talk of Kirby possibly being a first rounder. At this stage, there are probably 100 guys still being considered for those 30-ish seven-figure spots. In the end, then, a lot of them won't get offered that kind of money. And if Keith Law is correct, then the amount of money that would come Kirby's way would be on par with what Midlo Son turned down, so I could definitely understand him doing the same.

But I have to admit, I don't understand why you wouldn't let it all play out and see what your options really were. Because if he really could have been a first rounder, and if he's walking away from $2 million, then I'll just pray for his sake that the future that lies ahead looks like Hultzen's, and doesn't involve the injury bug.

Gerrit Cole gambled that way in 2008 and things turned out pretty well for him. But for every Hultzen or Cole there's a guy it doesn't go so well for. If he's turning down 300k, that's one thing. Go get your education and hope for better options in 2015 or 2016. But what if he's turning down $2 million? The thing is, now he'll never really know.

quote:

Can't do that anymore.

Yes they can. There are more repercussions, but there is no "hard slotting."

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
Hultzen was indeed VERY strongly committed to UVA coming out of high school. But he did still do what it took to be draft eligible. So no matter what might have been said by him or his parents at the time, he left the door open. Which suggests that there was some number (or maybe a particular team) that just might've turned his head. Maybe we just never found out because the number never got that high or the team wasn't the one he really hoped for.

.

Just curious because my son was not on anyone's radar coming out of HS, but what was the process to "stay draft eligible" when Hultzen came out? I thought this drug testing was a relatively new requirement

Not sure what the first year was, but it was in place in 2008.

You are correct

Started in 2008

nathan was only going to sign if he got 3+ million. because that money is generally for the top 5 picks he probablt figured to not waste any team's draft pick

being a top 5 pick was not out of the question. Had relationships been build with the scouts a LHP with his ceiling and his breaking-ball the top 5 picks were possible. Not a lay-up by any stretch, but entirely possible.

We will never know that now though - which was my point all along.

$2.5 - 3.0 million was entirely possible.

The other aspect of this is that it pays to cultivate relationships with scouts. If Nathan is a Hultzen-like prospect in 3 years, then nothing will stop teams from throwing money at him. I hope that happens for him. But if he slips to the later rounds, having built a reputation of not cooperating with the system machinery will not help him at that time.

And slipping to the later rounds is what happens to most players. Because to state the obvious, there are only 5 guys in the top 5, and every year someone new is trying to break into that number.

You guys are great members of this forum, but I think the 3rd party analysis on Kirby's decision has run its' course by now. I dont think there needs to be any concern over Nathan's "relationship with scouts". MLB teams have short memories, and they want the best players available. Period. Midlo, I respect your frequent posts about what college programs are generally looking for, but insinuating that anything that he's done in chosing to go to UVA would hurt his possible draft status in 2015 is nonsense imo.

The only thing that will determine Nathan's draft status at that time is how well he's throwing the ball for UVA in the spring of 2015. If he's not throwing well, his slip wont be any steeper because he did MLB teams the favor of not wasting a pick in 2012.

I hear you guys about "keeping options open" but the choice is made. Congrats to Kirby and to UVA for obviously doing a tremendous job selling him on the virtues of playing in their program.

As has been pointed out, this decision worked out pretty well for Hultzen. The only difference in the two scenarios was that Hultzen burst onto the scene so late in his senior year of HS that he wasnt asked to take the urine test in the first place. Thats how the Diamondbacks were able to squander a 10th round pick on him despite the fact that he shouted from the mountaintops that he was 100% definitely going to school.

In my opinion, Nathan's decision not to even take the test will HELP his status in 2015 because teams will look at him as a "strong willed kid with convictions". Scouts tend to look at the glass as half full when evaluating LHPs throwing 93 with a ridiculous breaking ball.

I agree. I commend the kid for wanting to play in college.

I agree...I think it is great that this 18 year old has such clearity in his decision-making process. I may be missing something but it seems that he is helping the process, not hurting it, by taking himself out of the draft so no one wastes a pick on him.

Don't misunderstand me, I am all for kids in this position going to college -- 99+% of the time.

And I'm wary of this coming across as some attack on Kirby or his family -- which is not what I intend at all.

As I said, I just hope he has good health and strong performance in the next three years. If so, he could be the next Danny Hultzen and the amount he gets in 2015 might dwarf whatever he could've commanded this year. If we get there, it'll be fun for all of us to get to say "we knew him when."

I'm just painfully aware of the risks pitchers face, and that will worry me until we safely arrive at June 2015.

The one thing that is undeniably true is that he took charge of this decision and did what he thought best. I respect that.

But this is an educational forum, and the people who come here to learn how things work do so to consider what their options are and which ones are best. So it's not my goal to undermine Kirby or his family, just to shed light on the draft process for those who may benefit from a fuller understanding of what they might go through themselves one day.

He will soon learn at McIntire that based on the Risk/ Reward of this scenario, he made a poor decision.

quote:

He will soon learn at McIntire that based on the Risk/ Reward of this scenario, he made a poor decision.

I enjoyed that.

i dont think where money is involved it is wise for anyone to do mlb teams " favors" by helping them save picks or worry about them wasting their money.
its all speculation without all the facts which only the family is privy to.
i have always said....people can go to college when they are 40....
left hander throwing in the 90's at 18 years old? sounds like a pretty marketable skill to me...why not let the market decide what the number is, gather all the facts then make an informed decision?
would you guys have advised a 17 or 16 year old Bryce Harper to stay in school and not miss out on his college exoerience? Go
to school, risk injury, gget a degree, and get in line with all the other unemployeed degree holders?