I've read The Sports Gene -- a very interesting book. And to Stafford's point, I have four kids, and I agree that it changed my perspective on nature vs. nurture.
However, like a lot of things in life, I don't think the answer is that black and white. You ever hear the saying "Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard"? Well, what about when talent does work hard -- who wins then? Sure, you'd bet on talent.
So my view is it's 70% genetic and 30% nurture -- or 80-20 or something like that. But that 30% or 20% can make all the difference. Or maybe the way PGStaff put it -- ceiling and reaching the ceiling -- is the right way to think about it.
Not to get too philosophical about it, but you don't get a chance to run a double-blind experiment in life. What happens, happens, and you can't really know what would have happened if another path were taken. This topic was sparked in my mind recently given a couple of exchanges on this site:
- One concerned Steph Curry and the fact that he dedicated himself to basketball (the dreaded single-sport athlete!) from age 13 on. A poster made the very fair point that you can't really attribute Curry's recent improvement to his teenage years. I get that. But he was so lightly recruited out of high school -- I think Davidson and Winthrop were his only scholarship offers -- that maybe he wouldn't have been recruited anywhere if he hadn't dedicated himself solely to basketball. And then where would he be?
- The other was in reference to an old-timer poster whose son was "obsessed with velocity" and he ended up pitching in the Big 12 and then a few years in the minors. Another poster described him as a soft tosser who struggled to break 90. The implication being: what did all that obsession with velocity get him? But I thought, heck, maybe without that obsession he would have struggled to break 80 . . .
I heard Trevor Bauer's dad say that the first 80 mph for his son was natural talent, and that Trevor made the other 20 mph through sheer effort. For some other kid, it may be his natural talent allows him to throw 95 . . .
So I buy the idea of natural talent -- a gift -- but I love the idea of a kid fighting, scratching, clawing, obsessing, in an attempt to make the most of his talent.