New bats changing college baseball

Already implemented in Ca this year. Someone could do a analysis on Maxpreps data, but in general 1 run is what 2 runs were last year. We have a lot of games decided by 1 run this year. Homeruns are down by around 50% as near as I can tell.

I did the Maxpreps analysis for HS in our area a few weeks ago and the results were comparable but a bit more drastic than the college numbers... as one would expect, I think.

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80% thru the season, here's a look at the HS varsity numbers in our area...

I took team BA's, HR's and Runs Scored for the two top leagues and kicked out a few anomalies (teams that changed leagues).

Average Team BA 2010 - .296
Average Team BA 2011 - .270

Total HR's (12 teams) 2010 - 106
Total HR's (12 teams) 2011 - 32*

Runs scored per team 2010 - 6.0 / game
Runs scored per team 2011 - 4.9 / game

*2011 HR's include one team with 12 at home with strong prevailing winds. They did not hit that many in 2010, so difference is really even more dramatic.

Also, factor in that approximately 40% of AB's accross both leagues were with CF4 exception bat, so, again, the difference is really even more dramatic than the numbers indicate.

With BBCOR in full effect next year, I would estimate a drop of about 35 BA points, 70-80% fewer HR's and 25-30% fewer runs scored vs 2010 (BESR).

I think this works well for the top players trying to go to the next level and for the revival of pure baseball and I love coaching it. I still have some concern that interest in the sport will diminish for the average player HS and younger and the casual fan base from college on down (the majority).

The JV and Frosh levels take a real hit - the true extra base hit is practically non-existent there with BBCOR.

I believe the bat comparison graphic/info in the story is wrong. It states that the new alloy bats do not have composite handles - some do.

I have heard scouts say that wood actually has more pop as it gives a little than the new BBCOR.In the article the one player states how he can't figure out when he is hitting a ball well or not.That is what I don't like.When your working with wood you can feel when you hit the sweet spot.With the new bats there is no give with the sweet spot.I agree with changes, but just go to wood.So that at least when your in the cages working you can get a feel for the sweet spot.Having no idea even when you have made good contact, how do you work on squaring up.I have seen many squared up balls this year, thats not the issue, but the hitter stating that he cant tell is a problem Batting practice is an attempt to square up and get a feel for your swing.

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Originally posted by BOF:
Already implemented in Ca this year. Someone could do a analysis on Maxpreps data, but in general 1 run is what 2 runs were last year. We have a lot of games decided by 1 run this year. Homeruns are down by around 50% as near as I can tell.

I’m a huge fan of MaxPreps, and personally know several of the folks who work there. Unfortunately, while they are the largest of all the entities offering statistical services to preps, their data isn’t the best to use to try to do what you’re suggesting. The main reason is, its not mandatory to enter stats, and its not mandatory to enter stats for every game.

I could do it if I had access to their data, but as many times as I’ve tried to get them to make the data available the way MLB and most college data is, they won’t do it, and have no plans to do so. So what you’d be left with, is doing what I’ve done for our team this year.

I’ve compared this season in several categories with, with the 4 previous seasons. If you’re interested, you can see it at http://www.infosports.com/scor...r/images/compare.pdf

Considering we played a significantly more difficult schedule this season than any in the past, the numbers show just the opposite of what most people are saying.

We’ve had 5 1 run games so far this season, but again we had 17 the previous 4 seasons. But I’m not sure I see how a 1 run game has any pertinence to this discussion. Wouldn’t the total runs per game have more meaning? FI, 15-14 game is still decided by only 1 run.

I think what one sees, has more to do with the quality of the team, the players, and the opposition than the bats.

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Originally posted by fanofgame:
In the article the one player states how he can't figure out when he is hitting a ball well or not.That is what I don't like.When your working with wood you can feel when you hit the sweet spot.With the new bats there is no give with the sweet spot.I agree with changes, but just go to wood.So that at least when your in the cages working you can get a feel for the sweet spot.Having no idea even when you have made good contact, how do you work on squaring up... the hitter stating that he cant tell is a problem Batting practice is an attempt to square up and get a feel for your swing.

Totally agree. That player comment was striking to me - hadn't heard it put that way. Up until now, I have not been an advocate of wood at the HS level for a variety of reasons, but this scenario shifts the scales quite a bit for me.
We do a "sweetspot focus" drill where we tape the barrels and feed front toss. A player will hit and call out whether he hit sweetspot or not - then look at the mark to see. This year with BBCOR, the players had a much greater degree of uncertainty. I thought it was just the players

That said, as I've stated previously, there will still be a problem of availability of good wood if regulations bring wood down to the college and HS levels nationwide.

fanofgame,

Don’t for 1 second give what scouts have to say about the bats any more credence than you’d give some parent in the stands, some journalist writing a newspaper article, or someone posting an opinion in a forum like this one. The terrible truth is, almost everyone is only repeating what they’ve heard or assume, not necessarily what’s fact.

The terrible truth is, BBCOR is essentially a wood bat standard. Now could manufacturers produce bats that don’t perform as good as wood? Of course. But what possible reason would they do that for?

While I’m positive there are many players who don’t get the same feel with them as with wood, it doesn’t strike me as odd at all. After all, they aren’t wood, and are only supposed to perform like wood. Having watched them in HS use for this entire season, I can tell you this. It didn’t take more than a few at bats for the players to generally quit worrying about it and get back to just playing the game.

But even though many say they hate the new bats, I’ve yet to see even 1 player use wood in a game, and I’ve seen more than 40 games. Before you believe what 1 player or even 100 players say about it in articles, wait and make the judgment for yourself. There is no choice! Its up to you. Either use wood, or a BBCOR bat. I’m betting you’ll be using a non-wood BBCOR bat.

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Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
I’m a huge fan of MaxPreps, and personally know several of the folks who work there. Unfortunately, while they are the largest of all the entities offering statistical services to preps, their data isn’t the best to use to try to do what you’re suggesting. The main reason is, its not mandatory to enter stats, and its not mandatory to enter stats for every game.

Stats,
I know what you are saying about Maxpreps and I know your comment was directed more to BOF's idea of doing an across the board analysis. However, I think my snapshot is pretty solid. This is across 12 teams in our area, all of whom fill in stats for all games. It is also across two division levels (D2, D5). I did the breakdown by division also and the differences were minimal. My initial analysis also factored in d7 teams in the area and the numbers were still similar.

Stats,
In my view, what you have posted is a considerable over-generalization.
Don't listen to scouts as what they are saying is the same as parents, writers and the like?
Listen only to Stats I guess is the message??????
fanofgame knows what she is talking about. I am betting some of her information comes from her son, who is a very, very good college hitter in the Pac10.
The idea that it didn't take hitters more than a few AB's, generally, to quit worrying about the bats is very different than what I have been told by more than 1 college coach.
In fact, some college teams/players used wood only during the Fall and the adjustment to BBCOR was not smooth, at all.
Additionally, it is widely understood there seem to be considerable differences in the performance of bats amongst manufacturers and then additional variations based on weather and temperature conditions.

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Stats4 said: The terrible truth is, BBCOR is essentially a wood bat standard.

This is not quite true. The new standard clearly allows for a bat that is, by their testing method, higher-performing than wood.

The problem for most players is that, for the first time, they are swinging a bat that requires much more precision in making contact at the sweet spot. Complicating things a bit more, the sweet spot on BBCOR bats is closer to the knob than on wood bats, making correlation between the two types of bats somewhat difficult for players.

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cabbagedad said: We do a "sweetspot focus" drill where we tape the barrels and feed front toss. A player will hit and call out whether he hit sweetspot or not - then look at the mark to see. This year with BBCOR, the players had a much greater degree of uncertainty.

This is an outstanding drill and, along with tee work, provides the best method for training the hitter to find the sweetspot.

Stats,

The comparison 2007 thru 2010 to 2011 is very interesting. If I'm reading it correctly, it actually shows more hits and HRs this year with the BBCOR bats. The numbers sure do show the complete opposite of everything I've seen so far.

I think it tells me that your level is adjusting to these bats much better than the DI kids are. In fact, HRs have doubled. Can we assume that these bats are actually some how an advantage over those used in the previous 4 years or what do those stats mean?

I'm sure you can explain, but I'm also confused by the pitch totals. Wouldn't the number of pitches for the hitters be the smae as that of the pitchers? Isn't the pitch count, the pitch count, in this case the number of pitches in a game? What am I missing?

Here in Northern California I would say that it is 85% CF4's and 15% BBCOR in the games I have watched. In many games it has been all CF4's. I am not sure how any data can be taken from the stats this year since most are using BESR waiver bats, at least in my area.

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Originally posted by cabbagedad:
Stats,
I know what you are saying about Maxpreps and I know your comment was directed more to BOF's idea of doing an across the board analysis. However, I think my snapshot is pretty solid. This is across 12 teams in our area, all of whom fill in stats for all games. It is also across two division levels (D2, D5). I did the breakdown by division also and the differences were minimal. My initial analysis also factored in d7 teams in the area and the numbers were still similar.

Notice, I didn’t say it couldn’t be done, but rather that there are a lot of obstacles to getting valid numbers.

After I made that post, I was talking with one of the guys at MaxPreps I know, and told him about the post. The reason I did that is, I’ve been trying like crazy to get them to add a few new stats and capabilities, but alas, they’re still in the “beginning” mode and have other fish to fry they feel are more important.

As to what you did, that would kick out some fairly reliable numbers, even for me, but having done things like that hundreds of time over the last 5 years, I know what a PITA it is. Too many mouse clicks, too much scrolling, too much waiting for pages to load, and on top of it all, it doesn’t give a wide enough range to make for more than a very general statement, plus there no way to really know if they were using some C4’s or BBCORs.

But one thing is true if no other is. At least there’s a way to do it now, where just a few years ago, it would have been impossible. I really hope I hang on long enough for them to get maybe 10,000 schools in their database. Right now they have 3,000-4,000 and look how much fin it is. Imagine it with 10,000 schools!

What section are you in? We’re in the SJS.

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Originally posted by brute66:
This is not quite true. The new standard clearly allows for a bat that is, by their testing method, higher-performing than wood.

That’s why I was very careful in my choice of words. Here’s a statement from one of the scientists who worked directly on the BBCOR project from the very beginning. He too is very careful about his words, but is very confident in the science behind it.

“What is less widely understood (perhaps known to only a handful of baseball researchers other than the NCAA rules committee) is the fact that BBCOR=0.5 is essentially a wood bat standard. Under this new standard, metal and composite bats will have to perform pretty much exactly the same as wood. They might be easier to swing but they will produce exactly the same batted-ball speeds as wood.”

[QUOTE]The problem for most players is that, for the first time, they are swinging a bat that requires much more precision in making contact at the sweet spot. Complicating things a bit more, the sweet spot on BBCOR bats is closer to the knob than on wood bats, making correlation between the two types of bats somewhat difficult for players.

?????? Why do you say that?

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Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by brute66:
This is not quite true. The new standard clearly allows for a bat that is, by their testing method, higher-performing than wood.

quote:

That’s why I was very careful in my choice of words. Here’s a statement from one of the scientists who worked directly on the BBCOR project from the very beginning. He too is very careful about his words, but is very confident in the science behind it.

“What is less widely understood (perhaps known to only a handful of baseball researchers other than the NCAA rules committee) is the fact that BBCOR=0.5 is essentially a wood bat standard. Under this new standard, metal and composite bats will have to perform pretty much exactly the same as wood. They might be easier to swing but they will produce exactly the same batted-ball speeds as wood.”

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The problem for most players is that, for the first time, they are swinging a bat that requires much more precision in making contact at the sweet spot. Complicating things a bit more, the sweet spot on BBCOR bats is closer to the knob than on wood bats, making correlation between the two types of bats somewhat difficult for players.

?????? Why do you say that?

The scientist you've quoted says the BBCOR bats are easier to swing than wood. He's right and the reason is due to the balance point being closer to the knob than a typical wood bat of the same length. The sweet spot therefore also is closer to the knob than wood. The result is higher bat speed but lower MOI. The theory goes that the two net out to be more or less the same in resultant ball exit speed.

Further, the BBCOR barrel no longer compresses like BESR did, so the sweet spot is, like wood, the best spot to make contact for maximum energy transfer. With BESR, you could make contact further out from the actual sweet spot and get the combined advantage of slightly faster barrel speed (end of the barrel travels faster than the handle) AND trampoline effect. This is why BESR is referred to as having a "larger sweet spot", but technically this isn't quite accurate.

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Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
Notice, I didn’t say it couldn’t be done, but rather that there are a lot of obstacles to getting valid numbers. ...

...As to what you did, that would kick out some fairly reliable numbers, even for me, but having done things like that hundreds of time over the last 5 years, I know what a PITA it is. Too many mouse clicks, too much scrolling, too much waiting for pages to load, and on top of it all, it doesn’t give a wide enough range to make for more than a very general statement, plus there no way to really know if they were using some C4’s or BBCORs....

What section are you in? We’re in the SJS.

We are at the northern tip of Southern Section. Not sure what you mean when you say "would kick out some reliable numbers". If you are referring to the small cross section that is our area compared to the state, I totally agree. But for our area, it should be a very good comparison. CF4's - I stated as 40% with a very good feel there. I see every game I coach (I would hope) plus I go to many games to support players I've had in the past. I attended during pre-league as well as league, and have seen every team in the area.

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Originally posted by PGStaff:
Stats,

The comparison 2007 thru 2010 to 2011 is very interesting. If I'm reading it correctly, it actually shows more hits and HRs this year with the BBCOR bats. The numbers sure do show the complete opposite of everything I've seen so far.

I think it tells me that your level is adjusting to these bats much better than the DI kids are. In fact, HRs have doubled. Can we assume that these bats are actually some how an advantage over those used in the previous 4 years or what do those stats mean

In the sake of full disclosure, I have to be honest here. Unlike the college players, CIF put out a list of waived BESR bats, and lots of ABs have been using those bats. Our coach, like so many others who had the $$$$, picked up 2 33/30 and 2 34/31 C4’s, and several of the boys picked up their own bat from the waived list.

No one should get the wrong idea though, even though those bats are last year’s models, they aren’t anywhere near as “hot” as many of the bats available last season or before, so my guess is, the net result isn’t what you’d see in college with the pure BBCOR, but its definitely not what its been in the past.

Also in the spirit of full disclosure on the other side, Last season the winning percentage of the previous season, of the teams in our league that we play 3 times each season was .486. This year they were .579 because the league realigned and replaced 2 very weak teams with an “average” team and a very good one. So, the quality of the competition improved, even though the numbers were better.

For sure our particular team’s comparison can’t be extrapolated across all of HS baseball. But, to tell the truth, because of the very nature of HS baseball changing so rapidly, I’m not so sure that trying to compare this year with past years on a 1:1 basis will produce a true representation of what effect there’s been from the bats. That’s why I use the last 4 rears rather than just last year.

End the end, I’m guessing the true effect won’t be known until say 4 years under BESR only can be compared to 4 years under BBCOR only. That would take into account a complete turnover of all or at least most players.

Here’s what I can say for certain. The BBCOR bats do not perform as well as the top of the line bats from a year ago. However, the BESR bats that were the mid-performance models and couldn’t be upgraded illegally, weren’t that much different than BBCOR bats.

Here’s what I see as something to consider, and I think will be proved out sometime in the future. When you talk about major DI schools that were getting top of the line bats for free, the difference in last year and this year will be striking. But, not all colleges had that advantage, and not all college players used that top of the line equipment, so in the smaller DI schools, and the schools that had to depend on the player’s own pocketbooks, the difference is going to be much smaller.

[QUOTE]I'm sure you can explain, but I'm also confused by the pitch totals. Wouldn't the number of pitches for the hitters be the smae as that of the pitchers? Isn't the pitch count, the pitch count, in this case the number of pitches in a game? What am I missing?

Good question! I’m always happy when someone actually things about the numbers they’re looking at.

I didn’t include all hitters because I don’t do batting stats for opponents. However, I do stats for our pitchers against opponents. So what you’re really seeing is only our pitchers against their hitters, and our hitters against their pitchers.

Does that make sense?