Over-recruiting/commitments

 

I would not characterize a team with 7 LHP's on the roster and another 7 combined in the pipeline for the next two years as an over-recruiter. That seems about normal.

 

If I had to guess, I would speculate that attrition for LHP's in general is above average compared to other pitchers and to position players.  All teams want some LHP's, the supply of elite LHP's is very limited, and non-elite LHP's are hard to project. Because of these factors, some schools do seem to stockpile LHP's as if they were commodities, bringing in just about every LHP who touches 85 and will accept a preferred walk-on or minimum scholarship offer, then sorting them out after they get on campus.  

 

But your example of signing 3 or 4 each year, especially if it's a school that loses occasional recruits and juniors to the draft, does not seem excessive.  

 

Best wishes, 

 

I believe the stat on Div 1 schools was something like 50% of the kids transfer out or quit within the first 2 years.  I'm sure someone will chime in with more detailed info on that.

 

As for the over recruiting - well, it definitely happens.  Schools have to cover themselves for kids that transfer out, get drafted, get hurt, quit, or become ineligible.

 

Looking a couple of years out isn't always going to give you a true picture. I would say a large portion of commits (wish I had a number for you) never make it on campus.

My son went to a small school that had four open pitching spots going into the Fall and had 38 pitchers in to compete for those spots.   Most said they were "recruited".  What that means exactly, I don't know.  

The reason for such recruiting at some schools is two fold.  First, they have no idea who will stick, leave, quit, get injured, make grades ect., and second, the coaches had no real interest or ability to develop ability.  The HC was a good recruiter, not much of a coach. 

So it goes.  

I had a similar question after reading several posts recommending that you "investigate the school in question".  I was hoping there was some magic formula but discovered that you simply need to get the historical rosters and start comparing year-over-year.  If you are dealing with a strong D1, you might also want to look at commitments that end up signing (Vanderbilt-type programs seem to have a few commits end up going pro each year - I think recruiting rankings are adjusted for these losses once the singing period ends).  

 

If you think a particular school has an abundance of leftys, you may want to investigate further - specifically does the pitching coach have some preference in developing leftys over righties.  It can have its benefits (a true lefty coach) and its weakness (too many leftys to compete against).

leftside, I get where you are coming from.  See this thread on "recruitment"  mainly about d3, but I'm getting the sense that a version of this same story sometimes applies even at D1's and D2's.  

 

http://community.hsbaseballweb.com/topic/without-scholarships-what-does-d3-recruitment-mean-in-practice?page=1

Sluggerdad....

Thanks.  That was a good read and touches on many of the same things my son saw at his first school.  At the first fall practice at his old school there were 82 guys.  Freshman, transfers, returning players....the oldest guy (made the team as a Freshman) was a 25 year old guy.  It was all over the board.  

He was injured and ended up getting cut after he was injured.  Again, so it goes. 

At his new school the first questions he asked were, "How many guys are you bringing in?"  "How many guys at my position (LHP)?"  "How many guys who red shirted are coming back?"

So far the new coach has lived up to his numbers.  Did not get the same "used car salesman" vibe from this coach.  Time will tell.  

Because this school is a harder place to recruit (small mountain town as opposed to a good sized city with great weather) the coaches bring in fewer guys (maybe by choice, maybe not) and seem to work more with the guys they bring in.  My son has said he has already received more instruction at this school in a month than he did in a year and a half at the old place.  

Would love to see stats (diff levels of schools)on how many P are recruited and how many actually r red shirted due to injury, or never make it to school due to injuries. Where can we see that info? 

 

Friar:

 

You are doing what you need to do; however, you need to take it one step further. You need to look at roster for the last 3-4 years. At the same time look at the stats for the same period. You should be able to "understand" what is going on. You will see how many players are really "on the team." They may be on the roster but are they playing? Are they on the roster and hit the field only as a Junior/Senior? How many players "drop off" the roster? What happens to them (transfer or quit)?

 

You are only scratching the surface. Programs are all different; yet if you look at the stats from year-to-year you will begin to gleam some insight into how the program operates. With this knowledge you will be better prepared to ask meaningful and insightful questions when the time comes.

My son's D1 had a senior to be (MIF) leave the team before this season started.  He's still in school.  He was from a "local" HS....and wasn't even a top level HS kid.  Only got about 10 AB's in 3 years.  I'm assuming he wasn't on scholarship.  This year's recruiting class has 7 MIF's....all who were All State at some level....so I'm guessing he saw the writing on the wall.   There were only 35 kids total at practice they started 2 weeks ago.  Walk on tryouts were yesterday (no clue as to what resulted)....and official practice starts Monday....so obviously a few kids won't be around come spring time.  My son still doesn't know which kids are on scholly's and which aren't (he knows some, but not all)....he's gonna be as surprised as anyone when some of the kids aren't around come spring

There's been an important development in rules that affects this substantially.

 

For some years now, schools have had the OPTION of presenting scholarship offers with a 4-year guarantee, as opposed to the traditional, standard year-to-year deal.  This held out the hope that players would not be at risk of seeing their money reduced or eliminated at the end of each year, in the situation where typically they had little leverage or recourse.

 

As of August 1 of this year, and therefore effective with NLI's that will be signed by those in the 2016 and later classes, the "Power 5" conferences (ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12) all committed to having all scholarships subject to the 4-year guarantee.  So, you no longer have to ask and hope; if you're recruited to a school in one of these conferences, you get it automatically.

 

There will still be attrition year to year.  Some players go pro after junior year.  Some guys find they are not doing well and decide to end their careers early.  Some transfer for baseball, academic, financial or other reasons. 

 

But you won't have the situation where you see your money reduced or eliminated just so the program can keep its promises to the incoming freshman class.

 

Now we just need to hope this spreads to the other conferences.  The problem is more common to the power conference teams anyway, but there are still some pretty darned big time baseball programs outside of those 5 conferences and things can get pretty cutthroat at times.

Does anyone think that there will now be less available baseball scholarships from the power 5 in the 2017 - 2020 classes?  i.e., some of the scholarships awarded in 2016 will be "dead" scholarships - the player is no longer receiving playing time but just staying around to keep his scholarship?

I'm not sure it will get less cutthroat.  It would take a special brand of determination to stick with a baseball program after the coach has made it clear he doesn't want you around, won't play you, won't give you reps in practice, won't let you travel, won't let you dress for home conference games, won't watch your cage or bullpen work, won't find you a summer league, and will generally treat you like a burden. How many players would put up with three years of that to keep a 25% scholarship?

Wow, such great responses and information.  I really appreciate the information.  I think that we will continue to monitor the various schools that he is interested in and review rosters year to year.  I realize that we still have some time and hopefully we will have several options to mull over when the time comes.  

 

I guess the last question on this relates to the offer themselves and perhaps someone who has been thru this can comment.  Lets say a 2018 is "offered" 40% and commits.  All looks great until you get the actual paperwork on signing day and now the offer is 25%.  Hasnt the player really screwed up by committing early since I would image alot of schools will have moved on at that point so now its 25% or nothing?  Although I know it can happen later as well, wouldnt it make more sense to wait until summer before senior year to commit since there would in theory still be several offers out there?  Thanks again to all!

 

And then the program fires the coach and you can start the whole process over again...

Friar-

 

I think it depends on the program.  I believe there are some that will honor what they originally offered as that is how they do business.  I believe that there are also a lot who will realize they over offered and find a way to reel that back in.

 

Unfortunately I may be in position to provide a real life example shortly.  2016 player I am familiar with has seen a very large decline in game performance since committing as a sophomore to a local mid major.  Let's just say the amount they offered would indicate weekend starter right from the get go and on our very competitive summer team he can hardly pitch anymore.  Has gone completely wild and cannot find the way back to success.  

 

School he is committed to has the reputation of running through kids.  He looks the part, works his tail off, and has after college potential no doubt, but will be very interesting to see how this gets handled.

 

 

I believe a lot of times what you describe works out how it should if that makes sense.  Meaning the player settles into the scholarship offer range they should and at the school level they should as well and yes that might be less than what was originally offered so long ago.  That reduction is coming sooner or later in a lot of cases.  Either before they set foot on campus or after year one. 

All great points and hadn't ever really thought about the kids who get run off for a number of reasons.  I guess in a perfect world if baseball helps you get into the school you really want to attend and you get to play a little more baseball, it is a win-win.

He isnt adverse to D# or NAIA for that matter so this is good info.  Since a lot of the D3 schools he likes are great academic schools that could be a really nice fit as well. 

In our area, during fall workouts the D1 programs provide fall rosters. Last year one of the schools had well over over 40 kids on the fall roster which was winnowed down to 35 for the season. So, since your a 2018, see if you can get a hold of the fall rosters to track what's happening this year.

 

Every year, a significant number of incoming freshman leave before the end of the first semester; some for grades, some because of the amount of work/players ahead of him on a depth chart, some are injured, etc.  Most who want to continue baseball find homes at nearby JCs.

FYI, redshirt players count into the total, on D1 you cant have anymore than 35 period.

D1 programs do not redshirt players just to redshirt players. They will under special circumstances as well injuries.

playball,

I am sorry I didnt answer the ?

Look on the rosters info, it will say FR, SR, JR, etc.

Back in February I looked at 2016-'17 projected rosters at four Top 25-ranked D1's. I did this by adding up each team's current sophomores and freshmen, plus its 2015 and 2016 commits according to PG.

 

 

 Here are pitchers.

 

Thank you!  So at High D1 level, it appears that there will always be 10-15 guys who don't make it for a variety of reasons (+-30%). Having looked at a lot of the various info on here,  it appears that good, clear communication with coaches that are interested in you is the key to finding out where you fit etc.  

I would say 30-40 players on a roster depending on size/type of program

20 position players, half play, half are backup, rest of roster are pitchers is a fairly safe assumption.

If both players at a position field well, run well, it comes down to who hits

Not necessarily. There are some programs (same ones over and over) that will do this, bring in more than they should for every fall, but its not normal for the ones that know how to recruit properly year in and year out to follow this pattern. Some work the numbers better than others, they are who they are because this is a skill and some are better than others. they also know who will or will not get drafted, opening up money and a roster spot, and the really good ones make sure that they get drafted.  

 

And sometimes this is very common from certain programs from certain conferences.

 

Here is my take, if one has to worry about how much a program over recruits, then that isn't the right fit for your son.  

JMO

FriarFred, TPM is spot on. Not all programs are alike. If you look at the fall roster at my son's school, you will see 37. I don't remember the exact numbers but I am pretty sure that is about average for this program over the past several years. Those are the type things we looked at during the recruiting process, mainly from advice received from this site. Like anything else, some coaches are better at juggling the "who can we get" with the "who is gonna be eligible" with the "who is gonna get drafted" act. It seems like a pretty daunting task to me, one I don't think I would want.

Great advice/info all.  Thank you so much.  

When it comes to draft issues, aren't we really talking about the top 1% programs.  They can see multiple players drafted which can leave holes and can be tough on recruitment.  For all the rest, the draft shouldn't mess up the roster that much should it?   

Golfman, that may be a valid point as I don't know that info. But I think there are somewhere around 1200 kids drafted every year. Take out 200 or so high school kids and that still leaves a lot of college guys getting drafted. I would bet a lot of programs have 1-2 players drafted every few years. I do agree the big boys have more drafted on a yearly basis. Heck, son's school lost 7 of 8 starters from last year's team, I think a total of 7 or 8 got drafted. But I do think that is unusually high. I would think even the big boys only lose 2-3 in a typical draft year.

I agree, but the graph included high level D1 programs.  While some think it is the top D1s that over recruit, my point is that these guys pretty much know what they are doing, while smaller d1 programs arent as good at it and they are moire concerned about the loss of their jobs rather than those at the bigger programs who have winning programs year after year. BUT, there still are a few that still over recruit.

I mean if you hear that big state U brings in 45 each fall, that probably isn't where my son would be headed, more like 37 may be the norm. And dont forget there are open tryouts that they have to have each fall, so some of those may get an opportunity to participate in fall.