I’m sure there’s a perfectly simple explanation for this, but being an English guy more than a Math guy, I have a question on something PG related. On player pages they’ll list measured data, and then give an average for that Year’s class. My question is that that data seems to shift. For class comparison purposes it muddles things up a bit. Can someone clarify why this occurs?
(and remember class there are no stupid questions)
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The class averages are based on the year recorded. So the averages for class of 2021 taken at events in 2019, for example, would be different than the averages for the same class at events in 2020.
Thanks.
I am not sure how much stock anyone puts into those comparative measures but my guess is not a lot. A year is a long time for a 15 or 16 year old. My son was last at a PG event in July 2019, the FB speed he posted there was in the 89.23 percentile when 2019 closed. If he had done an event later in the year he was throwing consistently 4mph faster in October/November. That would have rated in the 97.90 percentile for 2022 pitchers in 2019.
That begs the question, should you target an event late in the year to post the best number you can for such percentile comparisons?
@22and25 posted:I am not sure how much stock anyone puts into those comparative measures but my guess is not a lot. A year is a long time for a 15 or 16 year old. My son was last at a PG event in July 2019, the FB speed he posted there was in the 89.23 percentile when 2019 closed. If he had done an event later in the year he was throwing consistently 4mph faster in October/November. That would have rated in the 97.90 percentile for 2022 pitchers in 2019.
That begs the question, should you target an event late in the year to post the best number you can for such percentile comparisons?
I don't put any stock in those numbers because I know first hand that it's a random sampling. My son has been to a total of 1 PG event last June where there was a gun, and it was like 92 degrees that day and he was sluggish. Actually had a gutsy day...pitched well but threw slow. So when you research him, it has him throwing in the upper 70's. And there's no hitting stats for him. Meanwhile he's currently at 84mph, and will likely be 86-87 by summer showcase season. For hitting, he's 91 off a tee and 95+ soft toss. It's about as night and day as you can get from those numbers just under a year ago.
One of the few positive take aways from this whole thing is that video seems to be a more important element in the recruiting process this year. Coaches kind of have to rely on it, and the prevalence of tools like Pocket Radar and Diamond Kinetics make filming and then distributing that tape, either directly to coaches or via social media, so much easier. And far more acceptable it seems. Of course it won't substitute for coaches seeing a kid play live, but at least it provides evidence of progress in real time should an athlete be proactive about matters.
@22and25 posted:That begs the question, should you target an event late in the year to post the best number you can for such percentile comparisons?
Percentile numbers don't matter. Only numbers that matter on PG are velocity, height, weight, and pop time if it applies.
The metrics are a way for players to (very loosely) see how they measure up in a broad geographic pool of players interested in playing in college. Obviously if you had a bad day when PG recorded the numbers or if it was very early in your season, then the figures might be less reliable. But the data can be useful--the PG metrics gave me some sense of where my kid stood in the pecking order early on, when I didn't have a clear idea. I assume college coaches don't want or need to know whether a RHP throwing 88 as a rising junior is in the 93rd or 97th percentile at PG for his class that year.
Individual metrics are far more important than rank in class. A player is either above the line or below the line for each level of college ball.
@22and25 posted:I am not sure how much stock anyone puts into those comparative measures but my guess is not a lot. A year is a long time for a 15 or 16 year old. My son was last at a PG event in July 2019, the FB speed he posted there was in the 89.23 percentile when 2019 closed. If he had done an event later in the year he was throwing consistently 4mph faster in October/November. That would have rated in the 97.90 percentile for 2022 pitchers in 2019.
That begs the question, should you target an event late in the year to post the best number you can for such percentile comparisons?
I think later may help with velo, but it also helps because they aren't usually as stacked late fall. Percentages don't matter but being a top 5 velo, exit velo, pop time, etc. for that showcase, gets you tweets and write ups. Some showcases will have top velos that would be middle of the pack at others. In your case, the 4 mph, is better, no one cares about the percent.
Coaches recruit baseball players not metrics.
Just Sayin'
The PG class %tile and average changes with each update of class rankings & after events take place and more numbers are thrown in the mix.
So the class average is lower in the beginning of the year, then improve in spring, then summer, then fall.
As others have said, Velo, Height, Weight, 60 & POP time, and time to 1st (see all the coaches with stop watches timing the batters).
@BOF posted:Coaches recruit baseball players not metrics.
Just Sayin'
Well...
The problem is many coaches won't really give full consideration to a player unless they meet certain metric thresholds. My son pitched at a college camp last Fall. Was really on that day with location and command. Struck out 9 out of 12 guys and just clowned them. Even the 3 guys he didn't strike out barely touched the ball. Feedback from the coach right after? "You obviously know how to pitch but we can't consider you unless you improve your velocity". That's pretty straightforward and frankly was appreciated. So son trained like a fiend all winter, really worked on his mechanics, and is throwing about 5mph faster so far. Hopefully another 2-3 by mid-end of summer. Who knows what that process will look like this recruiting season, but that was the reality of last Fall. I wish it were based on non-metric performance, but metrics 100% matter in this day and age.
My son (2021 RHP) was a "follow" until he broke the 90 mph ceiling then conversations really started to happen and doors opened up. They talk that they recruit "command".
Coach Forbes at UNC said. I used to be a pitching coach. For pitchers, we recruit
But then commit guys based on Velo. One of their committs was at camp and he was having command issues, but threw 91.
But back to the question above, the PG Class average changed over the course of the summer/fall.
@Eokerholm posted:My son (2021 RHP) was a "follow" until he broke the 90 mph ceiling then conversations really started to happen and doors opened up. They talk that they recruit "command".
Coach Forbes at UNC said. I used to be a pitching coach. For pitchers, we recruit
- Command
- Command
- Can you throw a breaking ball for a strike
- Spin.
- Not sure what everyone's obsession with velo is as it comes with age and maturity. Not sure how we're supposed to project velo from a 16-17 year old as when I get them at 18 they're young men, and when you compare the freshmand to the juniors/seniors, they're practically grown men at that age.
But then commit guys based on Velo. One of their committs was at camp and he was having command issues, but threw 91.
But back to the question above, the PG Class average changed over the course of the summer/fall.
And yet he didn’t offer our teammate until he saw him hit 93. I’ve told this before but sophomore year, I Literally listened to a coach say, “hit 90, hit 90” to himself as my son was pitching. The coach had seen him pitch 5-6 times, talked to him weekly and had invited us on campus but didn’t offer him until that day. He offered him 75%. So he went from not getting the offer for 2 months, to an offer over 1mph. He had consistently been 88-89 every time the coach saw him.
I both like and don't like that story, baseball hs. That must have been a great moment when your son finally hit 90.
Must've been super frustrating when he was at 89.
But, I do get it. It may have been my imagination but in the batter's box I swear I could tell that 90 looked different than 89.
the old school thought was that you can teach command but you can't teach velo. every pitching coach everywhere drooled over the gas thrower who couldn't spot up because they thought they would be the one who got him to point his toe or wiggle his ankle or whatever the magic fix was and all of a sudden you have a flame thrower who could knock a dime off of a coke bottle.
@mattys posted:the old school thought was that you can teach command but you can't teach velo. every pitching coach everywhere drooled over the gas thrower who couldn't spot up because they thought they would be the one who got him to point his toe or wiggle his ankle or whatever the magic fix was and all of a sudden you have a flame thrower who could knock a dime off of a coke bottle.
Still the case for a lot of schools. Easier to teach a hard thrower to throw strikes than a strike thrower to throw hard.
Coaches also lie. They say they want command but what that really means is they want guys who throw hard and throw strikes. There are a limited supply of 90+ guys. Once the top schools take their picks (velo+command) the next wave takes velo and as you get further down the totem pole you find the guys with command who don't really come close to 90.
