Nuke,
Somewhere this has already been addressed here. I can understand how people could be confused.
Haven’t got time to explain it all right now, but here are a few things.
1 – We only grade at showcase events where we can clearly see all the tools. However we see players at other events including tournaments. Sometimes what we see in the tournament changes our mind about the player, but we can’t go back and change the grade that was based on a previous event. So often you might see that difference in the rankings.
2 – A player could be graded one thing as a sophomore and if we haven’t seen him at another showcase, he still has that grade. However, we might think he is better now as a junior but haven’t actually graded him.
3 – It’s not always the same people that grade the player that actually do the rankings. Somewhat like area scouts turning in reports and grades to the scouting director. Then the scouting director and his staff will put them in an order or form of ranking. It’s not always the highest graded player that gets drafted first. Sometimes the 49 gets drafted before the 51.
4 – I’m sure many notice that our draft rankings don’t always coincide with our HS rankings. That is because the draft rankings are compiled by one person (Allan Simpson) based on his many contacts throughout the country. On the other hand the high school rankings are put together based on what we have actually seen. Believe me, there are some real internal disagreements between the two lists at times.
5 – Last but not least… We are not perfect and do make mistakes at times. Every scout and evaluator who ever lived has made mistakes. Some might be better than others, but the draft is never perfect. It’s too hard to be perfect at predicting the future. There’s a very fine line that separates players. It’s always possible that #500 could end up being much better than #200. We had Strasburg ranked around 130 as a senior in high school. We had Matt Cain ranked #100 his senior year. I think we had Pedro Alvarez ranked around 100 in high school. We rank players based on our opinion of their potential. Obviously we didn’t get those guys ranked correctly.