Pitching Question

I think it can be so varied that to put any progression together as a guide wouldn't be fair to your son. Some guys have great arms earlier and then don't add a lot of velo for a variety of reasons (mechanics, work ethic, injuries, etc). Some guys are late bloomers and some guys gain a few MPH per year. I just think there are too many variables, espeically since he's only 13, that using any progression as a gauge would be an injustice to your son. In my opinion, he's got some velocity threshold, and I would focus on reaching that max through mechanical work with a pitching instructor, through strength and conditioning, and through a consistent program of throwing and arm care.

VABaseballFan4:

First, welcome to hsbaseballweb!

I'm not sure your questions are the right ones to ask at this stage.

I don't recommend charting his velocity progress. His progress is likely to be erratic, and there are likely to be some setbacks as he grows, and you might be tempted to tinker when the slope of the line flattens or goes negative for a few months.

If your 13 year old is already throwing in the 70's, velocity is not going to be a problem as long as he stays healthy and keeps growing. My son is a high school senior and one of the harder throwers in his area, but I have only the vaguest idea how hard he threw at various stages of his youth and high school ball. But I can guarantee you he was not throwing 70 when he was 13, so you can relax. Your son throws plenty hard enough for now, and he'll throw harder as he grows.

I would trust the velocity to take care of itself and instead focus efforts on getting him associated with a solid non-daddyball travel program, a competent pitching coach, and age-appropriate conditioning.

The short answer to your question about what college coaches look at is they look at everything: academics (the only stats any coach ever asked us for were GPA and SAT), physique and its projectability, velocity, control, movement, quality of secondary pitches, attitude, mechanics, makeup, athletic ability, etc.

Best wishes.

VABaseballFan4,

I agree with Swampboy, there is no reason to chart mph for various ages at this point. 70's velocity is more than adequate at 13. However, when you move to the bigger 60/90 field, 70's will be hittable by better teams. My advice would be for him to find a pitching coach that can work with him to further develop his mechanics, learn a new off speed pitch (I'm partial to change up at this age), and continue to develop control & movement.

If he continues to develop, he will be sought after by elite travel teams. Let's face it, everybody wants good pitchers. Once you get into the 16U range then it is time to measure mph to get a baseline only. Trust me, he will have plenty of opportunity for people to put the gun on him. Eventually, you will get tired of it. Enjoy this 13U time with your son, because it is a special time.

Swampboy has given you great advice. My oldest son is a college freshmen pitcher. GPA, SAT were the first two questions asked by ALL coaches that recruited him. Absolutely the most important stat you can have is high GPA and high SATs, because it gives your son options. Good luck.

I agree with some of this, but not all of it.

Fenway, those were the first questions you got, sure, but they only asked AFTER they had seen his MPH for themselves. Had he not been a high 80's guy, you might never have heard from many programs at all.

The absolutely most important thing for a 13-year-old pitcher to do is to develop his fastball. He should work on sound mechanics and conditioning, observe proper pitch limits and rest intervals, but generally focus his efforts on building velocity and learning to locate the fastball. The big mistake lots of kids make is that they fall in love with off-speed stuff at this age because they want to win today's game (and don't we all?). But while throwing curve after curve will rack up the K's, and while a 13 might not yet have the MPH to blow it by guys at the 60'6" distance, trust me when I tell you that nothing else he will ever do will work on a lasting basis if he does not develop the speed and command of his fastball.

The part I agree with is that there's no way we can tell you where your son will end up. Some 13's throw substantially harder than others only because they got to puberty faster, or maybe their birth date is 8 months earlier or some such. So it's easy to get taken in by the kid who's throwing hard right now. Without naming him, I could cite you to a local kid who was without question the hardest thrower in the 2009 class at ages 12 and 13. By high school he was only low 80's and while he pitched regularly he was third on his AA school's depth chart. Other kids start out ahead and stay ahead through all those years. Still other kids develop late and surprise you in their high school years.

But what the successful kids all had in common was a determined and consistent effort to build their fastball. No one has a crystal ball to tell you where your son is headed, but I can tell you how to be sure at the end that you got all there was in him to be gotten. Work the fastball first and foremost, all else is secondary.

VABBF4 -- Welcome to the neighborhood! You've been offered some great advice here from some guys whose kids have already made it to the collegiate level.

My guy is still in HS, and it was only a few short years ago I was asking the same questions as you. As I think about your question, I will reitterate some of what you have heard, but let me offer you this perspective:

1st ... Let him have fun playing the game. It is easy for a player (and/or parent) to get so focussed on getting to the next level that they lose sight of having fun playing where you are today. One of my son's friends (a HS junior) just walked away from the game because he was tired of doing the work to prepare to compete in college. Baseball had become a job to him, rather than a passion.

2nd ... Every one of us is born with a genetic maximum potential, and there is no clear indicator as to what that is, or when we will reach it. Each of us matures in our own time. The extent to which your son will reach his genetic maximum potential will depend on a number of variables -- his commitment to training his body, his commitment to developing efficient mechanics, nutrition, mental/emotional developmet, and staying healthy. Getting him top quality instruction, and doing age appropriate strength training are good starting points.

3rd ... I'm with Midlo ... master the Fastball. Learn how to throw it where you want, when you want, as hard as you can. YES, college coaches pay attention to GPA's & SAT's, right after they ask you how hard you throw. As Midlo can tell you, my guy is a "soft-tossing lefty". As a 17-year old Junior, he allowed 1 hit in 5 innings of work at this year's WWB Championships, against top competition. He did it with a fastball between 78-81. College coaches admire the result, but they want to see him throwing harder. He understands he is a late bloomer, he loves the game, so he has taken ownership over doing the work to become the best he can be.

4th ... Going back to having fun playing the game. It takes a tremendous amount of work and dedication for a player to make it to the collegiate level. It has to be HIS dream, and something HE wants badly enough to put in the work. He is not going to be willing to do the work if he is not having fun playing the game where he is today. My son's buddy who just quit was getting a lot of pressure to keep looking down the road, and to reach for something that might not have been in his make-up ... and in spite of the fact that he was a terrific HS player today, he stopped having enough fun to make it worth the work.

I wish your son all the success in the world. If he loves the game, and is willing to put in some work to see how good he can become, find a top-notch instructor and get him working on his mechanics. If that takes, and he wants to see how much better he can get, get him involved with some sports specific and age appropriate training ... looking at his nutrition ... and so on.

He's 13 ... he has time ... and remember the words of Jack Elliott (from "Mr. Baseball") "Baseball is a game, and games are supposed to be fun."

quote:

MidloDad posted - Fenway, those were the first questions you got, sure, but they only asked AFTER they had seen his MPH for themselves. Had he not been a high 80's guy, you might never have heard from many programs at all.

Midlo,

I agree that the fastball has to be mastered, no question. That is a priority no doubt. Do all the things that need to be done to get that fastball a money pitch.

However, I disagree with you on your above statement. If my son or any pitcher was a mid 80s or low 80s pitcher, there are still places they can play as long as they have the higher GPA and higher SATs. The grades give them more options. As a matter of fact my son was recruited from a wide spectrum of colleges. Some were high end D1s and some were academic focused D3s with academic scholarships. From my perspective, your statement is even more of a reason to continue to focus on academics as not everyone throws in the higher velocities.


Southpaw_dad - Great summary.

As another Dad of a 13 year old, can't tell you the value of the aforementioned. Tremendous perspective that you just can't get elsewhere: deepest gratitude for your posts.

Fenway -- Good stuff. I agree with you that the kids who will have the best opportunities are the ones who keep a good balance between becoming the best student and the best athlete they can become. SP_Son's GPA, coupled with his ability to get guys out, are working together to help some college coaches overlook his current velocity readings.

Tom House (National Pitching Association and Pitching Coach at USC) always tells kids that they need to learn how to win the game of school first if they want to open the doors to college. Another of my son's friends is struggling with that now. He is a 6-6 righty who has recently jumped up to high 80's velo ... but his academics are likely to limit him to a JUCO when he comes out of HS.

On another note ... Fenway, I think we may have some friends in common. Do you know Nick Savage of Mercury Speed? I'm guessing your son is playing in my old home town ... graduate of IHS

Fenway,

The scouting process typically begins with someone seeing the kid pitch. If they like him as a ball player (step 1), they then start asking whether he's someone who could cut the mustard both with their admissions departments and after they might get there (step 2).

You'll never get any argument from me as to the importance of academics. Many a strong pitcher gets past the first step only to get quickly eliminated from consideration at step 2. You and I have both been very fortunate that our sons understood that both parts were important. But then, that's not really a baseball issue. We drove home the importance of academics to all of our children irrespective of their choice of extracurriculars.

Addressing just the baseball side of things, my main concern is when people spend those teen years working too much on immediate gratification and not enough on development. With pitchers, one of the ways to get way off track is to focus on breaking pitches (because they lead to lots of K's) at a time when, if you really want to reach your long term goals, your focus should be on developing your fastball speed and location, along with proper mechanics, conditioning habits and other attention to your long term health.

Not everyone can throw 90. But a lot of kids could throw a lot harder than they do. Suppose you throw 78 but could've thrown 84. Suppose you throw 82 but could've thrown 88. Which of those kids will have more options in front of them by the time they reach their senior years? Which one is more likely to pass step 1, and have someone even ask if they can clear step 2?

Just want to say thank you for all the great posts.

I will definetly look into getting my son some pitching instruction to work on his mecahnics.

On the academic side I am not to worried about my son he has always worked hard in the classroom and receives mostly A's in all his advanced classes.

I realize academics always comes first, because in the end we all have a day where we have to hang up our cleats up and work in the real world.

I agree with all the comments pertaining to the importance of academics.

I will, however, dare to offer an answer to your original question about velocity at each age milestone.

Over the last 11 years I've had more than a few players on the RADAR gun and have charted and recorded the hardest of these for posterity and also in the interest of answering such a question that any pitching coach will invaribly be asked from time to time.

I have found that to be considered a "hard" thrower for your age the velocities will be as follows:

12u 65mph
13u 70mph
14u 75mph
15u 80mph
16u 85mph

For a player to be in what, for lack of a better term, I call the "arm speed MENSA" he would increase those readings by 5mph. Those would be the rare case that comes along infrequently.

For the interest of full disclosure - both "midlodad's" and "fenwaysouth's" boys appeared on our mensa list beginning at age 13 and both continued to achieve the goals upto and beyond the 90mph mark - one even breaking 95.

Hope that helps some.

quote:

Originally posted by VABaseballFan4:
I realize academics always comes first, because in the end we all have a day where we have to hang up our cleats up and work in the real world.

Hang up our cleats and trade them in for baseball turf shoes!

In the immortal words of Manager Lou Brown, "forget about the curve ball Ricky, give him the heater". Agree with Midlo Dad, master the fastball first. My second choice or pitch would be the changeup.

quote:

Originally posted by El gato:
In the immoral words of Manager Lou Brown, "forget about the curve ball Ricky, give him the heater". Agree with Midlo Dad, master the fastball first. My second choice or pitch would be the changeup.

I think you mean "immortal." But Lou Brown...Classic!

matthews41, immoral or immortal? You are right!

quote:

Originally posted by R.Graham:
I will, however, dare to offer an answer to your original question about velocity at each age milestone.

I have found that to be considered a "hard" thrower for your age the velocities will be as follows:

12u 65mph
13u 70mph
14u 75mph
15u 80mph
16u 85mph

For a player to be in what, for lack of a better term, I call the "arm speed MENSA" he would increase those readings by 5mph. Those would be the rare case that comes along infrequently.

R. Graham,
Very few pitchers climb the velocity ladder in steady 5 mph/year increments. Most kids progress in spurts and encounter plateaus and dips along the way as their bodies change, the rigors of the season take their toll, and their commitment matures. The front of the pack changes every year between 12 and 18.

I certainly agree with Midlo that pitchers have to establish command of the fastball first and build the rest of their game from that foundation. And I readily acknowledge there are exercises and drills and adjustments that can help them throw harder. And I even think it can occasionally be useful to put a gun on them before and after a coach teaches a mechanical improvement. However, I don't think it helps kids throw harder or enjoy the game when parents and coaches constantly monitor their peak velocity, especially when the monitoring leads to attempts to modify training or mechanics based on short-term variation.

If a player is on a trajectory that leads to higher level ball, the velocity will become apparent regardless of how often it's charted; if he's not, charting the lack of progress just going to add frustration and anxiety.

As far as gathering the velocity data to prepare for questions from pitching coaches, I would say the contingency is too remote to warrant the preparation. Coaches tend to believe their own eyes and their own guns and very little else.

FWIW, unless you're measuring showcase peak with a gun calibrated to make parents pleased with their investment, your numbers look a little high--they don't leave a lot of room for 17 and 18 year olds to get better.

Those numbers are peak velocities from indoor bullpens. You would commonly see game velocities 4-5 mph off these peak numbers, though you might see one or two pitches bubble up in any given game. So, there is indeed room to grow, in terms of building the peak numbers and also the "cruising" levels that trail peak numbers by 4-5 mph.

Also bear in mind, he didn't say you couldn't succeed at lower levels. He set these as where you would have to be to be considered a "hard thrower". Of course it's quite common to see guys find other ways to have success besides being a "hard thrower".

In point of fact, the hardest of throwers will run 5 mph above those numbers. But there I'm talking about the top handful across the U.S., not something you would expect to see in your surrounding area except once in a great while.

That sounds about right, Midlo. Thanks for clarifying.

There has been a lot of good feedback here directly answering the original question about target velocities. I would like to offer another thought that is directly related ...

Along with getting your 13 yr-old some quality pitching instruction to help him with his mechanics, and get him working on maxing out his genetic potential for FB velocity ... make sure he learns how to PITCH.

YES ... baseball today gets very focussed on radar guns and stopwatches. That said, the game is not won by the team that has the hardest thrower. The games are won by the team that secures 18, 21, or 27 outs while allowing the fewest runs.

The OP mentioned "Good Control". Let's be clear ... Good control is not just being able to hit the glove. Good control is being able to hit a spot the size of a dime in the glove ... consistently. Good control is being able to hit that dime with all of your pitches in any count, and being able to miss the zone when and where you want.

Velocity is important. Perceived Velocity is more important. Effective Velocity is most important. A true PITCHER understands how to use all three.

Velocity -- The actual speed reported by the radar gun. FB is base velocity, CB & CU should register at least 10-12 mph below the FB.

Perceived Velocity -- The velocity a pitch appears to be traveling at as it comes to the plate. Ex: for every 1' closer a Pitcher is to Home Plate when he releases the ball, the ball appears to the hitter to be traveling 3 mph faster. So when a batter sits on the bench or on-deck looking at a 70mph FB from a guy who has a 2' drag line (MLB average), that pitch looks to be 76 mph when he gets in the box.

Effective Velocity -- The difference in perceived velocity from one pitch to the next. A 70 mph FB down the middle from a guy with a 1' drag line appears to the hitter to be 73 mph. The same pitch high and tight looks like 76 mph. The same pitch low and away looks to be 70 mph. Think about this 3 pitch sequence ... 70 mph FB low and away (looks 67); 60 mph CU low and away (looks 57); 70 mph FB high and tight (looks 73). Your effective velocity goes from 67 - 57 - 73. If you can keep a 10+ mph difference from pitch to pitch in effective velocity, hitting spots, and adding some movement; it gets very hard for hitters to square you up.

Everybody wants to be an "arm speed mensa" (I like that one ), or at least a "hard thrower" ... but Velocity does not equal Pitchability. I've seen plenty of hard throwers who are long since out of the game, because they could not Pitch.

Speaking as the Dad of an "arm speed autistic", if you learn how to PITCH you can have a lot of fun and success in the game; and if you happen to gain velocity over time it all becomes a bonus.

In Summary: Max out your potential. Learn how to Pitch, not just throw. Learn to compete like a champion. Learn to make the most of your ability at each step along the way. Have fun playing the game & enjoy the ride.

I don't know about all that.

The reality is that there are nearly zero high school pitchers with the pitchability of a guy like Greg Maddux. Asking high school pitchers, who frequently do not have high level instruction available (except at substantial cost) to learn pinpoint accuracy, and to do so during a 4-year period when their bodies are growing and changing continually, to me is just not realistic.

Generally I think if you can work 3 pitches, move them in/out and up/down, and stay out of the middle of the plate, you are way ahead of the pack. Don't get frustrated trying to do more than is really achievable at this stage. Sure, it's OK to shoot to hit the dime, but for the most part you need to be happy if you're getting it in the general area (and in the strike zone, or out of the zone when desired).

To do that and be successful in high school does not require that you be a "hard thrower". In some cases you can succeed at the collegiate level without being a "hard thrower", too, but as you note, there is a lot of emphasis on gun readings and if you try to swim against that tide you're apt to get frustrated. The attitude of most collegiate coaches is, show me the physical gifts and a good attitude and I'll try to teach the rest. That's a path that leads to greater success for the college program than trying to teach pitching while also hoping you can build MPH with someone who may or may not have that in them genetically. From their perspective, there are literally thousands of HS pitchers out there, so they need some objective measurement to tell them who are the ones with a better chance of succeeding at the next level.

Even Greg Maddux might not have gotten the chance to become Greg Maddux if he hadn't been in the 90's coming out of high school.

Midlo -- Agreed to a point. Just as not everybody is going to hit the 90's, not everybody can learn to hit a spot on command ... but in my experience more kids can learn to Pitch than are blessed with the potential to become a power arm.

My point to young Pitchers (and their parents) is that there are more things holding a kid back from becoming a "hard thrower" than there are holding a kid back from learning to Pitch to win; and you can learn to Pitch while your body strengthens and matures.

Beginning to develop the skill of hitting spots can be as easy as making a game out of it. As a kid, I used to throw tennis balls off the chimney, not aiming at the bricks, but at the X's made by the mortar at a joints. With LL'ers we would have kids warming up playing a game where they had to hit the heart of their partner's glove without the glove moving. The pair that got to 10 in a row first won.

At 13U, on SP_son's team, we had 6 guys we called Pitchers ... and a couple of Throwers. We started them in the winter focussing on spots; we broke the strike zone down into 9 zones, and challenged them to pitch to spots in those zones; they all embraced the concept of Effective Velocity. Yes -- Some became better than others, but ALL made great strides forward, and a very mediocre team had a .750 winning % in the 2nd half of the year thanks to their ability to Pitch.

I just think we get a little TOO hyped up on velocity these days. I agree with all you have said about college coaches, and you have more expeirence there thatn I. But I sat at the ACC tournament and watched a bunch of guys have success on the mound sitting between 83 & 87. I watched the college World Series and watched a kid sitting on 84/85 carry his team to the D1 Championship.

And those are the kids pitching at the highest levels of college baseball. There is D2, D3, NAIA, JUCO ... you don't have to throw 90 to play college baseball, but you do have to prove that you can pitch to win.

I encourage every young player to reach inside of himself to become the very best he can be. If a kid can throw 90, then I want to see him get there (while maintaining long-term health). But if a kid can only get to 85, or 80, I want to see him learn how to do the most he can with what he has ... and, to me, that means learning how to pitch to win.

By the way ... the 3-pitch sequence I mentioned before is the sequence SP_son used when you and I watched him K an Aflac All-American when he needed one down in Jupiter . The boy wonder had not pitched, and had barely even played catch, for nearly a month when he was told he was going in that game. He told me later he knew 2 things ... he could spot a 2-seam FB, and that he needed to use Effective Velocity to keep them off balance. 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, and 0 balls out of the infield against one of the best teams in the country sitting at 78/79 that day, as he helped his team WIN.

That is something that many, many young pitchers can learn to do whle they are growing and training to max out their power potential.

This velocity conversation has predictably returned to the velocity v pitchability argument.

I will offer this - we can all talk amongst ourselves or from one dad to another about how things "should" be and what makes one guy a better "pitcher" than another but that won't change the reality of the recruiting game.

Coaches look for pitchability AFTER they see adequate velocity. Just like they're first question AFTER evaluating a player as competent is about Grades and SAT's. Pitchability and academics are very important but none of it matters until a certain level of ability is achieved - and the Harder a kid throws the more ability he is percieved to have (right or wrong).

The trap people must not fall into is to sit in an echo chamber wishing that coaches prioritized skillsets differently - they don't.

Secondly - I would have to disagree with your assumptions Swampboy. It is not unrealistic for the elite throwers to continue to gain anywhere from 3-7 mph per year up to and beyond the 90mph level. My comments were based on data accumulated over 11 years - not assumptions or opinions. The players who showed that kind of velocity in their post-pubescent years continued to realize those gains over time. There were some who bloomed late and joined the group at ages 14 or 15 but only one fell off the pace and that was because he moved on to be a communist kickball player instead.

I would, however, agree that it is much more likely for your average player to see some inconsistancies in they're development - especially if they are lacking the proper mechanics and throwing program.

You have no argument from me ... College Coaches and Pro Scouts look at Velocity first, no doubt about it. The higher up the ladder you look, the higher the velocity numbers they are looking to see.

We have this conversation on a regular basis with college coaches today. Coaches at Top 25 programs have told my guy they like what he does, but they want to see one of 2 things -- they need to see him add ~7 mph and keep doing what he does, or they need to see him add 2-3 mph and continue to prove that he can get guys out consistently.

He's working his tail off to develop velocity, while not losing the control and movement that make him successful today. The more the velocity goes up, the more doors will open. We get it, and we get why that is the case.

My point is that when you are talking about developing young kids, who are yet to attend their first HS baseball practice; that those kids can have a lot of fun, and enjoy a lot of success on the ball field even if they are not gifted with a power arm at present ... and may never develop one.

No doubt ... the harder you throw, the more mistakes you can get away with. It just seems to me that you have the best of both worlds if you work on BOTH becoming as strong as you can become, AND learning how to make as few mistakes as possible.

When my son was 12 he met a college kid working a camp who was then pitching at Florida State. This kid told him how he had been a soft-tossing righty all through HS. All of a sudden ... literally over the summer between Jr and Sr year he went from throwing 81ish to throwing 89ish. He went to a JUCO for a year, and went on to become a Starter for FSU as a Jr. & Sr.

His point to my son was work hard to become the best you can be; keep competing and getting better; give yourself the time and opportunity to grow; and see just how far you can go.

I just think that this message sometimes gets lost these days as we try to determine which 13 and 14 year olds will become the next superstars.

=====

After thought ... I should add that we have also spoken with Coaches at small D1, D2, D3 and NAIA schools. They all ask the same questions "What is your velocity?" ... "What year & How old are you?" ... "How are your grades?" The smaller the program, the more latitude they typically show for the velocity numbers.

People have told us for years that if a kid loves the game, is willing to work hard to develop his potential & skills, and can demonstrate that he can compete and contribute to his teams (HS & club), there is a place for him in college baseball. That place just might not be in the SEC/ACC/PAC-10 or at the school(s) he is targeting for academic or other reasons. The closer we get to the end of the HS trail, the more I am inclined to believe this.

=====

quote:

Originally posted by R.Graham:

Secondly - I would have to disagree with your assumptions Swampboy. It is not unrealistic for the elite throwers to continue to gain anywhere from 3-7 mph per year up to and beyond the 90mph level. My comments were based on data accumulated over 11 years - not assumptions or opinions. The players who showed that kind of velocity in their post-pubescent years continued to realize those gains over time. There were some who bloomed late and joined the group at ages 14 or 15 but only one fell off the pace and that was because he moved on to be a communist kickball player instead.

I would, however, agree that it is much more likely for your average player to see some inconsistancies in they're development - especially if they are lacking the proper mechanics and throwing program.

Sorry, but I continue to believe is a disservice to tell young players and their parents they can realistically expect the consistent, steady gains you describe over long periods of time.

If your theory and data are correct, you should be able to show some replication of your findings in recognized databases other than your private records. Perhaps you could PM the names of some of the guys you tracked and their PG pages would show the long, steady march through the velocity ranks.

For my part, I looked up some well known players from around the state and couldn't find examples of it.

Here are the velocities from the PG page for one of the MENSA arms. This player graduated in 2008, so this 29 month period presumably starts when he's about 15 and ends when he's 17 or 18:
Jun 2006--86
July 2005--90
Oct 2006--93
Oct 2006--93
Dec 2006--94
Oct 2007--94
(7 mph gain in 4 months; 1 mph over the next year)

Here's another MENSA arm from another part of the state. This player graduated in 2010, so he was probably 16ish for the first reading and 17ish for the last one:
July 2008--88
Oct 2008--92
June 2009--92
(4 mph jump in 3 months, then steady for 8 months)

Then I looked up a hard throwing 2011, just below the MENSA level:
July 2009--87
Oct 2009--90
June 2010--88
July 2010--88
July 2010--87
Aug 2010--89
Oct 2010--89
(A spike, then some drifting.)

These numbers show what normal looks like. There are peaks and valleys, spurts and plateaus.

Hard to believe that you nearly illustrate my point with your examples. your first example was actually a student of mine who saw his velo go from 86 as a soph to 94 as a Jr and then to 97 as a senior. Even if it wasn't at a PG event. ask any of the dozens off scouts that followed him in '08. Not my gun - theirs.

The second player went from 88 in July of 08 to 92 in June of 09. that's 4 mph in a year. although I don't know him so I can't speak to his development.

The third has shown a leveling off - but I certainly can't speak to his development because I don't work with him.

I can only speak to the knowledge of what I have seen and to the players I have worked with. It is possible to maintain gains in elite arms up to and beyond 90 (which was my point) - now I realize that it doesn't mean you can continue to climb year over year and end up throwing 140.

Also - it's short sighted and a poor representation to just take PG snapshots as your data set - it's too small a sample. The gains I speak of are over a much longer period of time. I do not disagree that their are plateaus and shimmers in an individuals progression in short term or isolated data samples - but the long arc of development is what I am referring to. I am talking about a player gaining from one "baseball age" to the next. He might pick up 4 miles in 4 months and then 1 in the next 8 - it's still 5 in a year which was my point.

I understand your belief and opinions on the matter and I know it is shared by many. I learned years ago that I can only speak to that which I know to be true.

I also realize that it is entirely possible that the last decade has been nothing more than a complete fluke. - unlikely, but possible.

I think our sticking point is not over whether these gains are possible in a year--of course they are. Our disagreement is over the claim that these year by year gains are repeatable year after year on a steady trajectory. That's what I have trouble with.

I picked one of your players because I don't think he illustrates your point. The 86 he threw at the first event in his record was probably an off day, since he threw 90 the next month. Then he spent the next 2+ years adding a total of 4 mph. It wasn't the steady year-after-year progress you say is possible. I've never been around players throwing that velocity, but it would be reasonable to expect progress to slow as you get closer to a player's max potential, and that's what this record shows. He obviously had tons of ability and excellent coaching to get where he did as early as he did, but even his record shows progress comes at its own pace.

I understand the limitations of the data set--very few players go to enough showcases or early enough showcases to offer multi-year case studies. I don't have my own database and didn't track my son's progress, so the data I used was the best I had access to.

We don't really need to settle this. It's a minor point. I don't doubt that when you average out all the guys you measured, that the group might yield the numbers you showed. I just don't think very many individuals track along smoothly for the long haul.

I'm ready to move on if you are.

My observation, for what it's worth, is that gains of an average of 4 mph can be had pretty much from age 9 through age 17. Some times only 1-2 mph, sometimes 6-7 mph, depending on when a particular kid grows.

At some point you start approaching your max and obviously mph growth stops at some point. Though there are cases of guys gaining substantially in the years from 18-24, often that is a result of rectifying deficiencies in conditioning and mechanics. If a kid is at his max potential all along, after age 17 it's hard to keep going up.

And you do see kids fall back, if they wear down, develop bad habits, or suffer injuries or nagging problems.

I just want to say that if you have a son that pitches, take him to a Physical therapists, they will teach him to devolope shoulder muscles, learn how to stretch, etc. everyone wants to pay for a pitching lesson but learning how to stretch, work out, is just as important,my son who was 16, turned 17 this past June, went from 84 to 88/89 in 8 weeks from a physical therapists, he had no arm problems but he devolped a bigger range of motion. Its worth it.

That's decent advice, though I fear too few will take it.

Most kids wait until they have injuries to go to a dr. Then they get a PT referral and end up with a regimen of exercises that really they should've been doing all along.

The resistance stuff and the work you do to keep the shoulder capsule strong and healthy are really things that anyone should do if they hope to pitch at a high level. Most kids never get to this point because most kids are done pitching by the time they are HS age. But for those who do continue on to that level and beyond, the conditioning should not be overlooked.

Collegiate players should get this from the moment they step on campus, and some even get advance info from the team once they sign (while they're still in HS). But the norm among the typical HS pitchers is that no one ever tells them, or they think they're invincible, so they just never do it. Until something hurts.

Pilots81,
you have a PM

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo2012:
Pilots81,
you have a PM

lol...his son is a 2011.

quote:

Originally posted by redbird5:

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo2012:
Pilots81,
you have a PM

lol...his son is a 2011.

LOL ????? please give me a clue to the humor

I know this question is not directly related to pitching itself, but it is the only subject I saw on here about pitching. If your son was a pitcher and looking at the DIII level what programs in the state of VA would you be interested in him attending?

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo2012:
LOL ????? please give me a clue to the humor

I figured he was gettan invite to the Cardinals.

Take a look at Mary Washington or Christopher Newport, good schools, Can't go wrong with Nick Booth and Va Weslyn.

Thanks Pilots 81 for the info. Do you know if all three of those programs are good places for pitchers?