Post-Covid Reversion to Recruiting Norms?

Every kid who played during Covid received an extra year of eligibility for 20-21. So, older players and full rosters won’t be over until after the 24-25 season.

There aren’t a lot of 25yo players. To be twenty five in the spring a player would have to have been nineteen when graduating from high school, red shirted and received a Covid extension.

Rosters will still be inflated and “log jammed” for a few more years.  Current college Seniors still have a year left of eligibility after this season. Current college Juniors still have 2 years left.  We’ll see plenty of “5th year” guys transferring to new programs for the 2023 season.

A lot of colleges have smaller than usual recruiting classes coming in as freshmen next fall.  That will likely be the case again in the fall of 2023.  

@3and2Fastball posted:

Rosters will still be inflated and “log jammed” for a few more years.  Current college Seniors still have a year left of eligibility after this season. Current college Juniors still have 2 years left.  We’ll see plenty of “5th year” guys transferring to new programs for the 2023 season.

A lot of colleges have smaller than usual recruiting classes coming in as freshmen next fall.  That will likely be the case again in the fall of 2023.  

All of this is 100% correct. As a result I am seeing more HS players considering Junior College than before the plandemic - as they should be. I’m also seeing larger recruiting classes at a lot of JuCos and overall talent level up a tick. Which all makes sense based on how we got to where we are now.

So a few more years of it eligibility-wise, then back to normal....

When does the MLB draft go back to its pre-Covid number of rounds?

The draft has been permanently shortened to twenty rounds. It makes sense given 84% of American MLBers are drafted in the first ten rounds. 94% come from the top twenty rounds.

@RJM posted:

The draft has been permanently shortened to twenty rounds. It makes sense given 84% of American MLBers are drafted in the first ten rounds. 94% come from the top twenty rounds. ***

*** Except for Mike Piazza who was drafted as the last pick of the 40th round as a favor to Tommy.

Additional information: The picks beyond the first 5 rounds are there so the first 5 rounders have someone else to play with.

@BOF posted:

*** Except for Mike Piazza who was drafted as the last pick of the 40th round as a favor to Tommy.

Additional information: The picks beyond the first 5 rounds are there so the first 5 rounders have someone else to play with.

Piazza was an anecdotal situation. The numbers are still 84%/94%. There are free agent signings for outliers. He was drafted thirty-four years ago. A lot has changed in terms of scouting and evaluation since then. MLB organizations don’t miss much now in terms of potential.

It’s the first ten rounds who receive signing bonuses. With the fuss about minor league pay I figure those not receiving bonus money are willing to be long shot, Single A roster filler.

What I basically want to know is that if my son, who received offers to several HA D3s, accepts one, will the logjam be cleared by the time he's a junior.  The answer seems to be yes.

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

What I basically want to know is that if my son, who received offers to several HA D3s, accepts one, will the logjam be cleared by the time he's a junior.  The answer seems to be yes.

Depends on the HA D3. Different D3 conferences and teams did drastically different things.

Have you looked at the current rosters and compared them to the 2019 rosters? Some HA D3’s had basically the same numbers.

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

What I basically want to know is that if my son, who received offers to several HA D3s, accepts one, will the logjam be cleared by the time he's a junior.  The answer seems to be yes.

The competition will never stop being fierce whether the rosters are thirty-five or forty-five. At D3’s rosters can perpetually be forty-five to fifty players.

Regardless of the number it comes down to being one of the eighteen to twenty who earn the right to be on the field. If you’re one of these players never back down. Never stop working. Someone on the roster or a recruit not even known yet wants to take your spot from you.

The draft is not going to impact D3s.

If the school doesn't have grad programs, they're not going to get kids with extra eligibility transferring in as grad students.

You can't tell what class anyone is by the posted roster, because some rosters list by academic status, some list by eligibility, some list by other things.  So, you might see a bunch of sophomores listed on a roster, but they might have 3 more years of eligibility.

Players at a D3, even if they have more eligibility, might stop playing and graduate, especially if they don't get much playing time.

What RJM and nycdad said.

I'm guessing my son's P5 school will have 5 year guys for 2 more years.  This year we have 3 6 year guys.  Son was freshman in 2020 and there will be several guys in his class that will not get drafted so they will ultimately be there for 2 more years.  After that you will have a lot of guys who are 5 year guys because almost their entire freshman class got redshirted last year and half of this year's freshman class will get redshirted.  So it is not going away as soon as some would think.  I don't know about other levels but I would think it is the same in most for several years to come.  I would say half the freshmen that have gone to college to play baseball in the past 2 years have been redshirted that we know of.