Power 5 Recruiting Class

Here is my "back of napkin" math.  Assume 2 seniors survive, so you have an average of around 11 players each class.  I would assume at least 6 pitchers on average, with the remaining 5 being position players (or perhaps big hitters that try to get hidden somewhere out in the field).  From a position standpoint, I understand they pursue MIF's, catchers and the occasional CF.  They pursue big hitters and then start moving folks around to flesh out the infield and corner outfields.  

The more advance math includes attrition whereby you have much larger freshman classes and they begin to cull themselves a little each year, so maybe assume 13 freshman, 11 sophomores and 9 juniors.

I have no direct experience, but have read enough here about the various ways these huge recruiting classes get managed within the 35 man roster, and nothing I've read is anything like giving up your seat on a airline flight - there are no vouchers offered to the first taker - and the offer keeps getting raised until they get enough folks to give up their seats.  Even if you make the roster, playing time becomes a fight - folks on here will tell you to list out player's AB's and you will quickly see how this falls off dramatically after the "starters".  But, I guess if you are one of those starters than life is sweet - until you get bumped off that is.

Really good question and I suspect the really good answers will be pretty specific to that player's situation and goals.

My two daughters transferred colleges because of playing time. They dont go back for Homecoming and never contribute as alumni. There experiences were mediocre but they got their degrees. My son stayed and played football at the same school for four years and really enjoyed his time on campus and returns frequently for events.  He had many offers but chose to play where he was loved and where he wanted to go to school despite getting offers from better programs. The girls chose the opposite route. The fell in love with the programs and NOT the schools and eventually transferred. Go where you are wanted and needed and because you like the school.

My 2018 always checks the PG draft board and the rosters. No way will I let him commit to a school that already is loaded at his position with incoming freshman or roster spots filled with underclassmen. Not afraid of competition just being practical. Yet kids commit to schools alongside  three or four other kids who play the same position and whose personal stats are close just to be at super programs. It is a numbers game after all. 

FriarFred posted:

I have been on here for a couple of years now and love all the great info and insight.  I was looking at a well respected Power 5 school and per PG their recruiting classes are as follows- The 2016 class had 20 commits, 2017 - 22 and 2018 already lists 17 for a 3 year total of 59.  I know that several wont make it to campus but assume 2/3 make it, can you really bring in 14-16 kids per year?  If you played a position with 4-6 "commits" already listed, why would you commit to that school.  Yes, I know its great to compete and think you are the best at your position, but that is still a tough call I would think.  Does anyone have experience with their son committing to a school that listed that many "commits" and how did it turn out?

My son came to me the other day worried he is behind the curve because the PG website shows college commitments for quite a few 2019s already. We sat down and looked at last year's commitment for one of his top choice schools. Showed 16 commitments in 2016. We bounced that off the fall roster for the team and only 8 of them are even on that roster.

Lesson is that there is very little veracity in the PG list for commitments (they do put a disclaimer there as well) because it is a variable in the profile that is entered by the athlete. Therefore ANYONE can put in their 4-year commitment, even if it is not true. To prove it I changed my son's 4-year commitment on his profile to his school of choice then saved it. Boom, he shows as committed on his profile with the school's logo and all and shows up in the college commitments list for his 2019 year group for that school.

I think some put in a school that they want to commit to, not knowing that it shouldn't be entered until they actually commit, because I cannot believe that many 2019's have committed (especially when they have no PG scores to see what kind of ball player they are, they don't show on their high school's varsity roster ever, and their summer/fall team don't play in major summer tournaments).

Realist, I'm not sure how much validity there is in that.  I guess a family could enter a commitment that doesn't exist, but what would be the sense in that?  It's hard to imagine any kid who is at all legit would see any benefit in doing that.  Other than for bragging rights, it would be just the opposite, in fact. 

From what has been discussed here many times, there are quite a few schools that overcommit.  In some cases these are schools that will lose quite a few players in the draft. In other cases just commit too many kids.  Since you're in CA I'm guessing that you're looking at Pac12 schools, and yeah there are a couple with that reputation.

Edit to say, BTW, I have been watching Pac12 recruiting for a few years now, and yeah, a lot of kids are committed during sophomore year, usually in the fall. Most of these guys are genuine studs.  A few are head scratchers, as there have been a couple kids who are average Varsity players, if that. No doubt the RC's are seeing something different at tournaments. 

JCG posted:

Realist, I'm not sure how much validity there is in that.  I guess a family could enter a commitment that doesn't exist, but what would be the sense in that?  It's hard to imagine any kid who is at all legit would see any benefit in doing that.  Other than for bragging rights, it would be just the opposite, in fact. 

From what has been discussed here many times, there are quite a few schools that overcommit.  In some cases these are schools that will lose quite a few players in the draft. In other cases just commit too many kids.  Since you're in CA I'm guessing that you're looking at Pac12 schools, and yeah there are a couple with that reputation.

Edit to say, BTW, I have been watching Pac12 recruiting for a few years now, and yeah, a lot of kids are committed during sophomore year, usually in the fall. Most of these guys are genuine studs.  A few are head scratchers, as there have been a couple kids who are average Varsity players, if that. No doubt the RC's are seeing something different at tournaments. 

JCG, 

My point was that some of these profiles are created by kids, and the data put in the profile is only as good as the person putting it in. I see a few number of "empty shell" profiles, demographic info is there, no travel team data etc. no showcase attendance, no measurables to evaluate. So I think there are some kids who are clowning around to a degree. There are also kids I know who are committed to D1s who don't even have a PG profile.

It sometimes makes you scratch your head.

SD, fair enough. I'm just saying don't let any of that convince you that there have not been a lot of 2019's verbally committed by Power 5 schools already. 

BTW, not so funny story. 2017 LHP we know got committed to a big name school during fall of his sophomore year. Since then he's done well but not great, and from what I have heard and seen his velo has remained at about the same level as it was when he committed. IOW, very good for a soph, just middling for a D1-bound senior. So last month, when NLIs went out, he didn't get one, just an email saying, don't worry, but we want to wait and see how you look in the Spring.   Early commitment is not a great experience for that family.

JCG posted:

SD, fair enough. I'm just saying don't let any of that convince you that there have not been a lot of 2019's verbally committed by Power 5 schools already. 

BTW, not so funny story. 2017 LHP we know got committed to a big name school during fall of his sophomore year. Since then he's done well but not great, and from what I have heard and seen his velo has remained at about the same level as it was when he committed. IOW, very good for a soph, just middling for a D1-bound senior. So last month, when NLIs went out, he didn't get one, just an email saying, don't worry, but we want to wait and see how you look in the Spring.   Early commitment is not a great experience for that family.

 If the player committed early and doesnt progress, this can happen.  Also grades may not be as anticipated, which is usually the case.

Don't ever try to figure this out, because you won't.  Coaches over recruit.   They have to. They also like to take players off the market (so to speak) so others won't get them.  They know that they may have 2-3 years to figure it out.  

Keep in mind that many position players do not play the position they had in HS. This isn't about position, it's about hitting.  The coaches decide who will play where.  If you played SS in HS chances are you won't in college.  Could be likely someone will be better at that position than you.

Here is my advice, if you feel uncomfortable with the numbers at schools at these power conferences, don't even bother. Go somewhere where you feel comfortable with your ability, not how many guys are in front of you. 

First off , With Big programs , if a parent is considering any of the top 25 NCAA programs. They need to start by asking themselves one simple question:

'Has my son filled out paperwork for the MLB draft?' or does he project for the 2018, 2019 MLB draft?'

If you answered NO to those questions or you are not sure ( Trust me you would know) Know this : Most of the kids recruited at those schools are MLB draftable prospects coming out of HS.

If the answer is YES you probably are not going to be here on HSBBWEB looking for answers as your son is already locked up w/ a commitment at one of the big programs.

There are approx 900 NCAA baseball programs. 300 Division 1 programs . The problem w/ players and parents with recruiting is that they are all chasing the same 35-40 schools.

The secret to recruiting is to cast a  'Wide net'

Tracy Smith ( Head Coach Arizona St ) say's it best " The art of recruiting is about finding the 'right fit' for the program and conversely, the player.....Not everyone can play at ASU but I've seen plenty of guys that can play somewhere"

Just my 2 cents on recruiting / Big schools for the night

I don't really see the point of entering a commitment on any website until the ink is dry.  Too many things can go awry.  Coach quits or gets fired, son gets hurt, son gets cut off when they find someone better, son flunks 3 classes, coach changes his mind...,...,...

When our younger son 'committed' at the beginning of his junior season (that was early back then), he called the other coaches and told them about his decision, we told his HS and travel coach and asked them to keep it quiet...and our son focused on playing baseball to the best of his abilities.  No distractions, no pressures, no other parents in the stands wondering how that little 5-10 pitcher throwing 85 ever got a scholarship to BigU.  He just played for the love of the game and enjoyed a fantastic year for his team and himself.

And that was pretty much "it" until he signed the paperwork in November.  Sure, a handful of people figured it out or heard through the grapevine.  We just smiled and said, 'Interesting, where'd you hear that?'

If you are confident your son can compete, there is no need to be scared off by whoever else says they committed there.  If your son can compete, it doesn't matter if 35 other kids commit there.  If your son can compete, there isn't a really good reason to type it into a website that I can think of...other than bragging rights.

If you're worried about if your son can compete, then he may have committed to the wrong school and you probably shouldn't type it into a website anyways.

The issue i would be most concerned about is the % of Juco guys brought in annually. That could signal a win now (not that winning isnt the priority anyway) and portend to less commitment to the kids originally recruited and there on scholarship. 

FriarFred posted:

I have been on here for a couple of years now and love all the great info and insight.  I was looking at a well respected Power 5 school and per PG their recruiting classes are as follows- The 2016 class had 20 commits, 2017 - 22 and 2018 already lists 17 for a 3 year total of 59.  I know that several wont make it to campus but assume 2/3 make it, can you really bring in 14-16 kids per year?  If you played a position with 4-6 "commits" already listed, why would you commit to that school.  Yes, I know its great to compete and think you are the best at your position, but that is still a tough call I would think.  Does anyone have experience with their son committing to a school that listed that many "commits" and how did it turn out?

With regard to schools that already have commits, I don't think it matters if you are the first or last to commit for a position, you still have to compete for it.  Let's say your son finds a school with no recruits at his position, he gets offered, and accepts.  Over the course of the next several months, he sees that school get commits from other players at "his" position - all of them with stats that are competitive with his.  Is he going to de-commit to look for another school where there are no commits in "his" position?

I also think a school with several commits already for a particular position isn't going to recruit another unless (a) they think he's clearly better than what they already have, (b) he's got something that they expect him to provide that the others might be lacking in, or (c) they expect to move him (or one of the other recruits) to another position. For example, maybe they've recruited a couple of really good defensive catchers, but this other kid is by far the best hitter, and his catching skills are quite adequate.  They might think they can improve his catching skills to compete for the top spot, or he could be converted to an outfielder.  

I just don't think there are any "givens," in the college recruitment game, and players (and parents) have to accept that as just another part of baseball competition.  Find a college match that suits you best under the circumstances as you reasonably believe them to be at the time, then keep grinding.