Here's my question: what is a typical range for drop-off in velocity for a early high school pitcher (freshman or sophomore) between, say, the first 20 pitches and, say, pitch no. 80 and above? 2 or 3 mph? More?
I thought maybe some posters who have done a lot of gunning (looking at you, Roothog66 and 2020dad!) might have enough experience to provide a range.
TIA.
Replies sorted oldest to newest
2019Dad posted:Here's my question: what is a typical range for drop-off in velocity for a early high school pitcher (freshman or sophomore) between, say, the first 20 pitches and, say, pitch no. 80 and above? 2 or 3 mph? More?
I thought maybe some posters who have done a lot of gunning (looking at you, Roothog66 and 2020dad!) might have enough experience to provide a range.
TIA.
Unfortunately I am going to give you the answer you don't want to hear. But I assure you it is true. It really does vary from one kid to another. I have seen some that drop after a couple innings and others who can go 100 pitches - which I don't necessarily condone - with only a one or two mph drop. Average I would say is two to three. However I would say that if there is a bigger drop than that it is probably time for the hook. Even if he is a guy who cruises at 90 and can still get people out at 86 I think he is obviously tiring and that's where danger sets in. I would get him out. And there are some kids just born to be relievers. Can go one or two strong and that's it. So I know not much help, but yes I have gunned a ton and there are just no hard and fast patterns. Would be interested to see if root or others who gun a lot feel the same.
2020dad posted:2019Dad posted:Here's my question: what is a typical range for drop-off in velocity for a early high school pitcher (freshman or sophomore) between, say, the first 20 pitches and, say, pitch no. 80 and above? 2 or 3 mph? More?
I thought maybe some posters who have done a lot of gunning (looking at you, Roothog66 and 2020dad!) might have enough experience to provide a range.
TIA.
Unfortunately I am going to give you the answer you don't want to hear. But I assure you it is true. It really does vary from one kid to another. I have seen some that drop after a couple innings and others who can go 100 pitches - which I don't necessarily condone - with only a one or two mph drop. Average I would say is two to three. However I would say that if there is a bigger drop than that it is probably time for the hook. Even if he is a guy who cruises at 90 and can still get people out at 86 I think he is obviously tiring and that's where danger sets in. I would get him out. And there are some kids just born to be relievers. Can go one or two strong and that's it. So I know not much help, but yes I have gunned a ton and there are just no hard and fast patterns. Would be interested to see if root or others who gun a lot feel the same.
Thanks. That's my thought, too -- see a sustained drop of 4+ and it's time for the hook.
Please discuss with pro scout. When a pitcher is tired his pitches are high in the zone. Mph is lesser factor. Watch the foul ball "pulled" or opposite side
or straight back. They are indicators. Guns can be off 4-5 mph. Ask the CHP.
Bob
I've seen radical drops of 7-8 mph. For many pitchers, the biggest drop comes sometime during the second inning. I'd say I see a 3mph average drop on about 75% of hard throwing pitchers by the end of the second. I don't see that as a tiring factor as much as that many guys throwing high 80's+ can only sustain it for about 20 pitches then drop into a more comfortable velocity. Those who can sustain it longer are more impressive. I look more at how much of a drop from about pitch #20 to the end. I see a rang that is all over the place. For what it's worth, at the high school level, I don't see guys throwing low-to-mid 70's drop off all that much even when they are tired.
My son was the opposite.....especially when he started (he was also a SS and pitched in relief). His senior year he was our #1 pitcher...and also our starting SS. He got to start on the mound in the biggest games (normally once/week). Early in the spring, a D3 coach (who had pitched in the MLB World Series) was at his game with a gun. Son was already committed, he was looking at another kid. He's a good friend. Talked to him in the 7th inning while son was at roughly 85 pitches....and son was at 87 (had maxed at 88). My son was 5'11, 150ish at the time. Coach remarked that that's really not common in HS...especially for a smaller kid. Fast forward to District tourney in May. Same coach was at the game. Biggest game of son's career against a team that we weren't expected to beat. He was cruising....4 hits, 11 K's and a 2-0 lead. Bottom of 7th he hit 90 on his 90th pitch of the game.
Buckeye 2015 posted:My son was the opposite.....especially when he started (he was also a SS and pitched in relief). His senior year he was our #1 pitcher...and also our starting SS. He got to start on the mound in the biggest games (normally once/week). Early in the spring, a D3 coach (who had pitched in the MLB World Series) was at his game with a gun. Son was already committed, he was looking at another kid. He's a good friend. Talked to him in the 7th inning while son was at roughly 85 pitches....and son was at 87 (had maxed at 88). My son was 5'11, 150ish at the time. Coach remarked that that's really not common in HS...especially for a smaller kid. Fast forward to District tourney in May. Same coach was at the game. Biggest game of son's career against a team that we weren't expected to beat. He was cruising....4 hits, 11 K's and a 2-0 lead. Bottom of 7th he hit 90 on his 90th pitch of the game.
This is the big difference between the good prospects and the really hot prospects. The pool of high school pitchers who can "touch" 90+ is much larger than the pool of kids that can "sit" 90+.
Buckeye 2015 posted:My son was the opposite.....especially when he started (he was also a SS and pitched in relief). His senior year he was our #1 pitcher...and also our starting SS. He got to start on the mound in the biggest games (normally once/week). Early in the spring, a D3 coach (who had pitched in the MLB World Series) was at his game with a gun. Son was already committed, he was looking at another kid. He's a good friend. Talked to him in the 7th inning while son was at roughly 85 pitches....and son was at 87 (had maxed at 88). My son was 5'11, 150ish at the time. Coach remarked that that's really not common in HS...especially for a smaller kid. Fast forward to District tourney in May. Same coach was at the game. Biggest game of son's career against a team that we weren't expected to beat. He was cruising....4 hits, 11 K's and a 2-0 lead. Bottom of 7th he hit 90 on his 90th pitch of the game.
5'11" and 150 lbs hitting high 80s, touching 90? You got any video of this?
Teaching Elder posted:Buckeye 2015 posted:My son was the opposite.....especially when he started (he was also a SS and pitched in relief). His senior year he was our #1 pitcher...and also our starting SS. He got to start on the mound in the biggest games (normally once/week). Early in the spring, a D3 coach (who had pitched in the MLB World Series) was at his game with a gun. Son was already committed, he was looking at another kid. He's a good friend. Talked to him in the 7th inning while son was at roughly 85 pitches....and son was at 87 (had maxed at 88). My son was 5'11, 150ish at the time. Coach remarked that that's really not common in HS...especially for a smaller kid. Fast forward to District tourney in May. Same coach was at the game. Biggest game of son's career against a team that we weren't expected to beat. He was cruising....4 hits, 11 K's and a 2-0 lead. Bottom of 7th he hit 90 on his 90th pitch of the game.
5'11" and 150 lbs hitting high 80s, touching 90? You got any video of this?
They made a movie about him.
Teaching Elder posted:Buckeye 2015 posted:My son was the opposite.....especially when he started (he was also a SS and pitched in relief). His senior year he was our #1 pitcher...and also our starting SS. He got to start on the mound in the biggest games (normally once/week). Early in the spring, a D3 coach (who had pitched in the MLB World Series) was at his game with a gun. Son was already committed, he was looking at another kid. He's a good friend. Talked to him in the 7th inning while son was at roughly 85 pitches....and son was at 87 (had maxed at 88). My son was 5'11, 150ish at the time. Coach remarked that that's really not common in HS...especially for a smaller kid. Fast forward to District tourney in May. Same coach was at the game. Biggest game of son's career against a team that we weren't expected to beat. He was cruising....4 hits, 11 K's and a 2-0 lead. Bottom of 7th he hit 90 on his 90th pitch of the game.
5'11" and 150 lbs hitting high 80s, touching 90? You got any video of this?
Lol....he was probably 6', 165 by the District tourney....he was mid/upper 80's all season and touched 90 several times. He's pitching at a D1....has been up to 89 this spring. Wish I had more video...lol. Just a lot of pictures 
I agree it depends on the kid. I know my own 2019 gets stronger as the game goes along, until about 85-90 pitches aND will lose a little velo, bUT more noticeably will miss up in the zone as he tires . He has developed a starter mentality that he rarely throws 100% effort.
We have other kids that live max effort and drop off after 1 or 2 innings. I think it's a mindset and expectation of their inning or pitch count for a lot of guys. Usually 4-5 mph for max effort HS kids. Don't have knowledge about college or pro stats
