Recruited Frosh vs JuCo Transfers to D1

It varies....check the rosters of some D1's you're considering and you should get an idea.  My son committed to a D1 that has no transfers on the entire roster...and it sounds like they very rarely look for them.

With regard to the rough summer....we were in that exact situation...but in the end things worked out.  My son had a great HS season...and a very good showcase the first week of the summer.  Had a couple nice D1's contact him.  One RC came to see him 7 or 8 games in a row.  He went 1-30...and struck out 8 times (had 8 K's in two years leading up to that).  Needless to say, he wasn't happy, though his fielding and pitching weren't hurt by the slump.  RC understood, as he was also the hitting coach, and was still talking about coming in for a visit soon. Next weekend, HC comes...son has another rough outing...and was just completely disgusted with how things were going...and it showed.  HC told RC to forget it....no interest as they didn't like his "body language"...which was fair...as I was at the game that the HC saw.  Next weekend, a "new" D1 calls....hadn't even gotten an email from them up to that point....showed up, son went 3-4, threw well from the mound...and the coach really started to show interest.  Came to a couple more weekends...son hit around .500 with a  couple more scoreless innings on the mound...and they made him a nice offer.  All this happened in about 3 weeks.  I guess what I'm saying is that if he had D1's watching that you knew about....there are likely some others that maybe haven't contacted him at this point.  Good luck.

I hope it happens a lot since my son will be starting his second year at a JUCO next week, with the intentions of transferring to a D-1.  Whether that happens is another story.

Go to the web site of your son's schools of interest and look at the roster.  That will answer your question.  Here is the University of Missouri's roster.  You will see a number of JUCO players on it.

http://www.mutigers.com/sports...ss-m-basebl-mtt.html

Almost every college team website has a roster listing that includes previous school and you can get a pretty clear picture of whether a school takes a lot of JC transfers.  Also, almost every JC team website will have a write-up about which previous year players went off to which 4-yr schools and some list a history of previous players and which 4-yr schools they went on to play at.  There are often common pipelines.

My observations are that, in general, the top D1 schools and top academic schools may have just a few JC transfers if any while many D2 and NAIA schools have quite a few.  Mid level D1's and D3's vary quite a bit. 

SD, since you're in Norcal I suggest you check out Santa Rosa JC. They have a long record of moving players to 4-year schools.   Not all D1 of course.

The JC choice is not much different then the D1/2/3 choice, go to a place your son is wanted by the HC.  At the same time you'd prefer the JC league to be strong.  Your son doesn't have to play on the best team in the best league, he just needs to perform well playing against the best.....in front of coaches and scouts.  SRJC plays in one of the better CA JC leagues.  http://www.cccbca.com/landing/index

My son's D1 graduated 5 seniors, 1 red shirt junior and 1 5th year student (spent his 5th year as a student asst. with the team as he was out of eligibility).  Out of those 7 graduates none came in as a freshman, they all transferred in.  Only one of the original freshman (there were 5) was still there as a junior, and he was drafted and signed or he would have graduated also.  The graduating class next year is full of players who came in and stayed 4 years with only one or two transfers in.  It varies even on the same team with the same coaches.  My son spent his freshman year at a good, not great D1 JUCO and had 5-6 offers after his freshman year (the coach resigned so it was open season on him by teams who would have waited for him to finish his second year so as to not piss off the coach).  Only a couple of players from that JC team went D1, several went D2 but most were done.  It's a hard row to hoe making that move.  One thing I would look for is a JC program that has a good record of placing players in D1 schools.  Grades kept several players from moving on too.  Keep them up.

I can only relay what I observed at my son's JuCo.  He recently (back in June) signed to play at a D2.

Anyway, before that as his sophomore year wound down, several players were getting interest from D1's, D2's, D3's and NAIA's.  I'd say most of the interest was coming from D2's and D3's.  Only a one or two D1's and a few NAIA.

Not sure about the D1's, but if it's any indicator, the D2 my son signed with had about 1/3 of last years rosters as JuCo transfers.  I wouldn't be surprised if a D1 school was similar.

It can be done, but you need to be aware of the numbers.

There are about 400 JUCO baseball programs in the country.  Each turns over half of its roster each year, so there are probably around 6,000 JUCO grads looking to play at four-year schools each year.

There are about 300 NCAA D1 baseball programs.  On average, each school may bring in two or three JUCO transfers per year.  There is a lot of variation in this average.  Some schools bring in a lot more.  Some bring in none at all.  Some bring in more when their programs have specific needs, such as after a new coach has cleaned house and needs some experienced players right away.  

If the average is 2.5, that would mean 750 JUCO grads move into D1 ball each year.

Bear in mind, however, that a significant portion of the JUCO players who land at D1 schools are 4-2-4 transfers.  These are players who signed with a D1 out of high school, attended D1 for a year, transferred to a JUCO, and now want to return to a D1.  These players obviously have a leg up on the competition because they were already recognized as D1 talent the first time they went through the recruiting process.  

Let's make two more assumptions (which will put our calculation squarely in SWAG territory).  The first assumption is that a third of the JUCO players who make it to D-1 are 4-2-4 players.  The second assumption is that only one fourth of the D1 players who transfer to a JUCO hoping to get back to D1 actually succeed.  

If these assumptions are in the ball park, it means that of the 6000 JUCO players looking to find a four-year college, 1000 of them will be 4-2-4 candidates and 250 of them will succeed.

That would leave 5000 JUCO grads competing for the remaining 500 D1 opportunities.  

To beat those 10:1 odds, a JUCO player must excel, probably in a competitive conference, and must present himself as an immediate "plug and play" game-ready significant contributor to a D1 school.

Best wishes, 

Swampboy,

Very interesting.

Just curious about how 2 other factors apply:   seems like a large percentage of the players I am familiar with who have  gone the Juco route are either a) gifted, but not physically mature enough to compete at the D1 level so they go Juco and are often redshirted. Or b) they are D1 type prospects with crappy grades, so they go Juco to try to get on good academic standing.  

The first category is probably  more common among football and basketball players, but I can think of baseball players in both categories who have moved on and done pretty well.

JCG,

From my experience (football and baseball), you are very spot on, but there is also a third category which I will call " other"  that includes being overlooked somewhat by not having participated in enough or the right camps and showcases, injury, change in coaches/coaching philosophy etc. 

I would also add, some kids may have offers from smaller schools, but want to go the JUCO route to see if they can then go D1 which was their dream.  This is how it played out for a good friend of my sons who got an offer from a Pac 12 schol after sophomore JUCO year and will attend this fall. He was sort of a  tweener out of high school, worked hard, got bigger, played compettive summer college ball and there you go!

Yeah this last one applies to a great  kid from our HS.  Serious talent, great athlete, truly burning desire and great work ethic, first team all league in a very competitive league, 4.2 GPA. I gather from talking to his dad that he did attend a few local showcases, nearby prospect camps,  and played one major PG tournament last summer (which was mostly rained out, I gather, so something of a bust exposure wise).  But he  doesn't seem to have gone all out on the exposure  front. Don't know if they were overconfident, misinformed about how much to do, or what.  But any way,  no D1 scholarship transpired --  though he did get admitted into  several strong D3 schools, and was much sought after by one of coach in particular.  He was also offered a recruited walk on spot at a local D1.  He decided to defer his admission to the D3 for one year, after much discussion with family, to go the JuCo route for one year.  If he doesn't get a sniff from a D1 after a year, current plan is that he will go to the D3.  Don't know how common this trajectory is.  

Those categories certainly exist, but I'm reluctant to generalize too much because JUCO's can be a good fit for so many players for so many different reasons (money, grades, physical/emotional/social maturity, family obligations, late awareness of recruiting timelines, etc.).

What about the talented player who turns down a D1 to go JUCO for an earlier chance at the draft?

Definitely.