Recruiting and the Economy

i think you are already seeing some related things......

increases in applications and enrollments at state colleges and at juco's and community colleges.

Agreed. My son's JC is filled to the gills. EVERY class offered was FULL.

Online education is booming.

I think that what has happened to our economy will bring change to the way people do things and spend their money because often times there has been no thinking twice as to what you need or don't need. Will your son need that new glove, will he need that new bat? Will travel ball decline among youth leagues? Just a few things in baseball to think about that may change, but people are still buying tickets to MLB games!

As far as recruiting, people will still spend money, but more wisely for when it counts. More and more will want and need their players to stay within state. Getting a scholarhsip to a state university will be even more difficult than it is. And community colleges will be harder to gain access to and more and more drafted in mid rounds will sign than ever before, because families cannot afford to send them to school. You can't pay for your childrens education on second mortgages and 401k's anymore. Private lending for scholarhip money is hard to get.

I beleive that good will come of it all, things will get back to normal eventually. And maybe we will all learn from these trying times.

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I beleive that good will come of it all, things will get back to normal eventually.

I think things will get back to normal but at the same time we must realize recruiting is ever changing and I doubt if there is such a thing as "normal". If parents are forced to adjust as we always have and always will have to, I don't think those adjustments will alter the recruiting outcome. We must understand we are in the final days of the presidential election and we are bombarded with negativity. I just read that colleges are having to raise their entrance requirements because they cannot handle the increase in students applications.
Homerun04 sorry to pick on you but:

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Will the recruiting go back to finding only local talent?

Go Back? What years are you making reference to?

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it will be more difficult for families to justify spending large amounts of money to get the additional exposure to be found by schools through showcases and high level travel teams over the fall and summer months.

I have always had a problem spending "large amounts of money" on vast quantities of exposure.--- I never could justify it. Therefore I didn't. Relax, if showcase attendance and high profile summer teams decline (and I doubt that they will) college coaches will make the necessary corrections to find talent. I compare this to worrying about your dog dying of thirst if you move his water bowl from the kitchen to the laundry room!

I do/did absolutely also suffer from "spending large amounts of money on vast quanities of exposre" and not justifying it...as Fungo did. (That goes for techno-gadgets too...inside joke with Fungo! ).

And as I have a younger son in his sophomore year in HS...with these tough economic times that haven't yet directly hit our family (although I'm afraid to look at our 401K's)...I still do find myself thinking twice about the costs of these things whereas I'm not sure I did 5-6 years ago? Expensive elite travel teams, traveling, exposure events, big state public school versus private, etc... Cost is in my thought process lately.

We'll all adjust. And I'll likely throw caution to the wind...once again!...after all, it is my son!

And the economy continues to spiral downward.....today, after Congress refused to pass the bail-out bill, the Stock Market fell almost 800 points, the most EVER in history. Yikes!

Well, maybe the most ever in terms of points. But not by percentage, not by a long shot.

Personally, I'm not hyperventilating. At least, not yet.

To be honest, I don't detect a lot of panic among people I know. And I have heard not one story of anyone giving up travel ball due to the economy.

Recruiting will be hurt by this economy B.S. parents are just not going to have the money for camps or recruiting services. The bigger name high school athletes may not be hurt at all but the other kids just trying to get there name out there will be hurt my this.

If this recession that we are in now truly becomes a DEPRESSION many things will change. For many kids they will have forget about their dream of college baseball and get a job to help support their family. Credit will be very tight (if you can even get credit) and the day's of parents taking out a loan to pay 75%-50% of the tuition at an out of state school or Stanford, Vanderbilt, Rice, Notre Dame, Miami, etc... will be over. Those same players will attend the local Junior College or state university where the tuition is much less expensive. Along with attending those local state schools the students will probably have to get a job to help pay some of the expenses. If the United States of America slides into a depression all but the top 5% of the people will have to change the way that they live their life and spend their money.

All the congressmen are buying depressed stocks so the rally of the stock market will begin soon. I wonder how many of them will get richer off that manouver ?

This thread reminds me of a "Chicken Little" approach to college recruiting. This whole college baseball recruiting ride is governed by three major things.

#1. Demand --- "Demand" is coaches looking for a particular number of recruits to fill their rosters. This does not change with the stock market or the cost of gas.

#2. Supply --- "Supply" is the number of eligible high school students that want to play college baseball. This too is unaffected by the stock market or the price of gas.

#3. Talent --- Talent is simply one's ability to play the game of baseball. The higher the level of talent the more sought after. Baseball talent is not listed on wall street.

The same number of high school players will be offered college scholarships and the same number of players will be inducted into professional baseball. The big FEAR from parents will be their inability to influence the outcome of their son's careers because they won't have the money to do so. We could see some minor adjustments made in travel teams and showcases (but not much) probably more complaining than adjusting. The methods used to recruit may see some tweaking but the outcome will remain virtually unchanged.
Fungo

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Originally posted by Fungo:
The big FEAR from parents will be their inability to influence the outcome of their son's careers because they won't have the money to do so.

Interesting observation.

quote:

Originally posted by Fungo:
This thread reminds me of a "Chicken Little" approach to college recruiting. This whole college baseball recruiting ride is governed by three major things.

#1. Demand --- "Demand" is coaches looking for a particular number of recruits to fill their rosters. This does not change with the stock market or the cost of gas.

#2. Supply --- "Supply" is the number of eligible high school students that want to play college baseball. This too is unaffected by the stock market or the price of gas.

#3. Talent --- Talent is simply one's ability to play the game of baseball. The higher the level of talent the more sought after. Baseball talent is not listed on wall street.

The same number of high school players will be offered college scholarships and the same number of players will be inducted into professional baseball. The big FEAR from parents will be their inability to influence the outcome of their son's careers because they won't have the money to do so. We could see some minor adjustments made in travel teams and showcases (but not much) probably more complaining than adjusting. The methods used to recruit may see some tweaking but the outcome will remain virtually unchanged.
Fungo

I agree with the three bullet points, but what I see is it will make baseball even more of a rich man’s sports, true if your baseball skills are very desirable there is a good chance they may be found, but much more so on a local area and others from the local area will loose opportunities even though they have desired skills, but due to the local talent skill level, passed by or not discovered at all by the colleges. They may not be found by some of the schools who used to find and love them in the past.

We used to play in a program which has placed players in far reaches of the country, including such areas as upstate New York, Massachusetts, South Florida, Washington, North East Louisiana, even several to Tennessee, and many other parts of the country where they would not have seen these players if not for attending events such as out of state Perfect Game events, WWBA tournaments, and the Sunbelt Classic, where the SEC and ACC coaches were following and picked up several of our players.

The program has sent some of its top players to very strong schools, but also has sent some good but not top players, not good enough attract interest from schools around the local area, to get discovered by schools out of California and the south western states which have a large pool of highly desirable players.

Sure the program will still go to the events, but it may just have a different set of players.

I have always said to families that want their fairly good player to play beyond high school and can’t find a good school in California to have interest in them, there is somewhere you can play, it may not be in the local area, it may not be the level you originally thought, but you can find a good place to hang your hat and get some good opportunities to continue your dream. Now I think, even more so than in the past and to a lot more people, I would have to add statement; “if you can afford to get them noticed.”

I think that people who ordinarily spend money early on in the process will begin to plan according to their sons ability, his performance in the classroom and his age. Where someone may have spent way over budget getting seen, they will spend the same money but later on when it counts the most. The dreams of sending your son off to premier college and universities when tuition costs are skyrocketing will begin to fade. The reality of pursuing big state U out of state will be replaced with the smaller D1 close by, or players will take more advantage of instate paid tuition, perhaps even having to give up sports for their degree. I also think that more multi sport athletes will look further into the sport where they will get the most paid for by a scholarship. Those wanting to pursue proball will head off earlier, despite whatever the bonus be, because MLB will eventually pay for their education.

I remember one year when son was a junior, I had taken him to the UM holiday camp, and it was primarily exposure at a time that I felt was appropriate for him to be seen (Jim Morris spent most of his time with the juniors and seniors). There was a parent sitting next to me, they had brought their player there from the north for exposure (not his skills because he was VERY good according to teh parent) and combining it with their holiday travel. The player was in 9th grade. I was very good at keeping my comments to myself that day, did they REALLY think that he was getting "looks"? Besides, UM recruits mostly instate, and that is the way it is, you have to be a top HS prospect out of state for consideration. So it's good to do your homework on coaches recruiting practices.

Now this is what I think will make a big difference. Using the same program,UM is well over 40K a year to attend. If the average baseball scholarship is 25%, will you have the ability to pay the difference? Players with families that have the ability to pay will be very desirable just as much as their players talent and grades. I know back when son was being recruited and we got some offers, the thinking was, "we will find a way to pay for it". Well, the way things are going, how are you going to pay for something if you don't have a job, your pay has been cut, health care costs are way up (and you have to contribute more for them) and your 401K and profit sharing has decreased in value along with your home? If your player takes on the responsibility of a student loan (hard to get) will he be able to find a job to pay for it when he graduates (with unemployment rates sky high)? It is human nature to want the best for your children, but for many survival will become of greater importance. I would make sure that grades become a huge priority, spending money on tutoring early in hS for those struggling in the classroom rather than unnecessary exposure.

Just my thoughts that this will be the biggest factor in the change for recruiting, the inability to pay for your child's education and realistically seeking options which you can afford.

TPM very good points. The inability to afford college and the inability to afford excessive exposure are two different things. One will have a big impact and one won't. Tuition cost will have a huge impact on where a student/athlete attends while the inability to spend another $1,000.00 on national "exposure events" will not. I also hear politicians promising to make college education affordable to ALL children. This taxpayer funding of colleges will more than likely be limited to instate students. Doing this will make the out of state tuition more expensive and less appealing.

Don't forget that colleges may have to tighten their belts as well. Many depend on alumni donations etc. Right now we are just seeing the tip of the iceberge. Some colleges may have to conradt their involvement in sports since very few make money on their teams. There may be several that even close their doors.

How about the players who are drafted in the lower rounds? Will these players now look more favorably at signing for a lower value, since families may have fewer alternatives for funding the player's college education? How will the economy and potentially more signings affect a club's ability / desire to offer bonuses outside the slot?
Also, with more potential MLB signings, how will this impact the existing "borderline" MiLB player?

I know this was a question about college recruiting; however, I do feel this will present a "trickle-down effect" and impact overall college recruiting.

Thoughts??

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The inability to afford college and the inability to afford excessive exposure are two different things. One will have a big impact and one won't. Tuition cost will have a huge impact on where a student/athlete attends while the inability to spend another $1,000.00 on national "exposure events" will not.

Some families, because of the faltering economy, will not only not be able to afford $1,000 national exposure events, but will also struggle to come up with the $1200-1500 needed for travel ball fees (for each season) plus all of the related travel costs (gas, airfare, rental car fees, food, hotel) -- not to mention money for camps, PG showcases, speed/agility classes, private lessons, etc. And I am not talking about just the families who have lost jobs, either; I know that my brother-in-law's sales bonuses (which constitute a large portion of his income) are only 25% of what they were a year ago. Many people were already living "on the edge" with finances before the economy went south, and the added financial pressures may make it impossible for them to afford what some regard as an inconsequential expense.

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Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
Don't forget that colleges may have to tighten their belts as well. Many depend on alumni donations etc. Right now we are just seeing the tip of the iceberge. Some colleges may have to conradt their involvement in sports since very few make money on their teams. There may be several that even close their doors.

The NCAA does not force any school to give out scholarships, only for those that do, it has to be minumum 25%. So therefore rather than closing programs, no scholarships may be available.

Those programs that have rich football programs to subsidize their programs will be able to offer more than those that don't. Parity in baseball, which seemed to have adjusted somewhat the past few years, will again change.