Rule of thumb: Must be best player on HS team to play college?

I would say yes and also add that you better be one of the best 3-5 in your league to play at the D1 level. (obviously depends on your league)

I would say no. 1 in 10 is the average. In our region, we probably had 30 kids go on to play college last year. That is out of 10 teams. It probably does mean that for every team that has 2 players go on to play college, there is another team out there somewhere that does not have anyone go.

And, I've seen plenty of high school teams where being the "best" player on that team meant nothing...

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1 high school player in every 10 has a chance to play in college

Actually, I think the stats may be much more grim according to NCAA. 1 in 10 may have a chance, but 6.4% will go on.

I was researching this very topic for my travel team. On the NCAA website, I saw the following stats that I put into my presentation:

1) 3 in 50 or about 6.4% of HS Senior baseball players will go on to play men's baseball at an NCAA member institution

2) About 9 in 100 or about 8.9% of NCAA senior baseball player will get drafted by MLB teams.

3) Approximately 1 in 200 or 0.44% of HS seniors will be eventuall drafted by MLB team.

NCAA Estimated Probablilty

It's too dependent on the level of HS play to use as a rule of thumb.

4thGen's HS team had nine players from his class playing college ball last spring. Two went to DI's, one to a DII, two to D3s, one to a NAIA school and three to JUCOS. Three different teams from their region including them that had won the last four state championships. The three Juniors from that team that played, are all playing college baseball this year.

Who was the best player on the team? Most likely one of the pitchers that turned down a DI ship and went JUCO. He's just committed to Ohio State for 2011-2012.

It's also dependent on position. An outfielder is going to have a much harder time advancing than a hard-throwing pitcher.

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Originally posted by SultanofSwat:

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1 high school player in every 10 has a chance to play in college

I saw this quote in another thread.

Doesn't this realistically mean that you must be the best player on your HS team to make it to the college level?

Is that a general rule of thumb?

I don't agree with this at all. All of the starters and a couple of the backups from my son's 2009 high school team are playing college baseball from juco to D1. Other teams in the conference have a similar amount of college players as well.

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Doesn't this realistically mean that you must be the best player on your HS team to make it to the college level?

It can't hurt.

I looked at a couple of big 5A high schools for their college players.

Year College (D1)
2009 3 - 6 (1)
2008 6 (1) - 3 (2)
2007 3 - 6 (2)
2006 4 - 8 (1)

So, it sounds like good teams have many players go to college. Many, many (most?) high schools must have zero players that go to college.

Rule of thumb 2?

You must be the best player in your region in order to get drafted.

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Originally posted by SultanofSwat:
Rule of thumb 2?

You must be the best player in your region in order to get drafted.

That gets into a whole different discussion. What constitutes the best high school player in the region? We had two players in our conference get drafted last year and their stats were definitely not the best on their team, let alone region.

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Originally posted by BOF:
I would say yes and also add that you better be one of the best 3-5 in your league to play at the D1 level. (obviously depends on your league)

I agree with BOF, the strength of the league is a big factor. We also need to remember that a large majority of the kids that are initially put on a D1 Radar, were scouted via their summer/fall travel teams...it's tough for college coaches/recruiters to attend HS games while their season's are in full swing too.

I think it has a lot to do with which school you attend and how good they are along with the competition.
For instance the school my son goes to is a baseball powerhouse and has several kids every year who sign at D1 - D3. Kids who get cut from this school could be starters at other area schools. Conversely it is not known for other sports (boys) and rarely has anyone who goes on the play in college at any level in the major sports.

As someone else said, the best player at some schools is not very good beyond HS.

From the seniors on my son's 2009 hs team:

1 (pitcher) got drafted first round and signed, 1 (LHP/1B)got drafted 47th round and went to a D1 school, 1 (C) went to a D1 school, 1 (MIF)went to a D2 school, all three outfielders went to Cali Jucos, another C went to a Tennessee Juco,

Every senior on the team went on to play baseball somewhere except one who was a high academic achiever and quit baseball because his academics exceeded his athletic ability at his chosen school.

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Every senior on the team went on to play baseball somewhere except one

I guess you are saying, based upon your son's team, "that every high school baseball player can play college ball?"

Guess the NCAA better recheck their probability stats and the rest of us must have languished in baseball talent impoverished areas.

Hey, it's Orange County. The guys who make the team at the mega-schools in So Cal are definitely college capable.

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I guess you are saying, based upon your son's team, "that every high school baseball player can play college ball?"

No, what I am saying is there is no rule or standard percentage. It depends on the school, coach, area, level of talent, etc. etc. etc.

Cant tack a standard to it.

I would say no, a kid does not need to be the best player on their high school team. Myself and my friend started out on the b team freshman year, and ended up being 2/3 players from our class to go on and play in college. Desire to keep playing is one of if not the biggest factor.

And who determines who is the best player on the team? I've seen guys make a huge difference on a team but not be considered "the best" because they either didn't throw hard or didn't hit home runs.

You have to do well at what you do and have the drive to keep playing. Lots of pitchers go on to play in college after not being starters on their HS team. They find a niche (reliever/closer) and smart college coaches find them. Other guys play positions that don't get as much glory as pitchers and catchers and yet they are crucial to the defense of the team. Smart coaches seek these guys out, not just starting pitchers and catchers and homerun hitters.

"the best on the team" is too specific a standard.

bblefty is on to something here.

Desire to keep playing & I think being on a championship team (hs or travel)... Players on teams that get deep into tournaments and championship series get noticed more.

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I've seen guys make a huge difference on a team but not be considered "the best" because they either didn't throw hard or didn't hit home runs.

or aren't flashy.

Agree 100%. Players are sometimes perceived to be the "best" on their HS teams, even by HS coaches, but they sometimes don't move on because the smart college coaches are looking beyond the WOW factor to the guy who actually makes a difference.

One issue with the original post is that it presumes that everyone on your HS team is a senior. The other thing is that averages are misleading as to what actually happens, because results differ hugely from one school to the next.

At our local HS, the makeup of the varsity roster is typically something like 7 seniors, 7 juniors, 3 sophomores and 1 freshman.

In 2007, we had one senior sign D-1, while 4 more seniors went D-3, at least for a while. Another senior had an appointment to Annapolis and was offered a roster spot but declined. Still another senior had a D-3 offer but elected to go to school elsewhere to pursue what he saw as a better academic opportunity.

In 2008, we ended up with 5 seniors signing NLI's to go D-1. One decided to change schools to focus on academics, got released and never played D-1; happily enjoying club ball since then. One struggled academically and transferred to a JuCo. The other three are active in the ACC.

In 2009, there was only one D-1 signee on the team, 1-2 JuCo guys, not sure what all else.

Last year, the team had only one senior in a rebuilding year, he's not in college ball to my knowledge. This year may be similar. But the 2011 class may return to the 2007-08 levels.

This is one of the better programs in the area, but there are others with similar track records. There are also other schools who see kids move on to college ball only infrequently, and some more who NEVER see anyone do it. Some of the inner city schools struggle just to put a team on the field, finding it difficult to hire coaches, maintain fields, and draw enough players to fill out a lineup card.

So, it all depends on your individual program -- things like whether you're drawing from a demographic that values college education and has always aimed for and planned for college; whether the youth options in the area are strong and develop players well; and whether your HS coach builds the program the right way, with an emphasis on work ethic and keeping all noses clean. If you click on all those cylinders, you can have multiple guys go on to college ball in each graduating class.

I sure hope no one thinks that one teammate's success stands in the way of their success. It actually works the other way around. If one player is attracting scouts to games, the other players can benefit.

2010- First place team had 1 2nd rounder, and a couple who signed D1. 2nd place team had 2 recruited walk ons to D1s and 1 who switched from D1 to JC. The one the coach blew off has a D1 roster spot. The coach's favorite (who earned it) the school hasn't published the roster yet. 3rd place team had 2 or 3 D1. 7th place team had 4 or 5 D1. 5th place team had 1st rounder and maybe 1 D1. Several other teams had players go D1. Several more went D2, D3, NAIA and JC.

The number of players who go D1 tends to be more dependent year in, year out on how hard the coaches push for the kids rather than the talent level of the team.

The statistics quoted here are accurate. However, that does not change the "belief systems" of many parents. Most are so used to watching their son play with and against the same kids that they lack prospective.

I have umpired HS games for the more than 5-years. The area that I cover has what I consider typical HS players; it also includes a league (private school) which most consider one of the best in the country.

My observations are that those that go to a school with a deep tradition of excellence with great competition have a higer probability of players moving forward. In our area those that are not in that better league have a lower probability of moving forward. You will get a good number from the "other schools" that go on to the JC's however, far fewer then move on to or play at a four year school.

From my prospective (behind the plate) those that move on work harder, compete first against their teammates and then on the field against high competition. My quess would be one player out of 5-6 high schools goes on to a 4-year school and plays. Those that play in the better league it is probably closer to 2-3 kids per team go on to play at the next level.

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Those that play in the better league it is probably closer to 2-3 kids per team go on to play at the next level.

Being that you are from Northern Ca. I just wanted to add something a recruiter told us on a visit.First there are several private schools in Ca. Those schools do move on many players, and many go to the private D1 colleges.

I asked a private college recruiter why did they recruit so heavily from the private HS.he said two reasons, one they are used to the higher level academics, and the parents were able to afford a private HS, and would need less scolly money than other players.Not saying those players from those schools are not good, there are some very strong leagues in those HS.

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Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
One issue with the original post is that it presumes that everyone on your HS team is a senior.

Great point. You also need to take into account that not every one of the top ten kids on a roster even want to continue playing ball in college.

The school my son attends is relatively new, it only opened seven years ago. It currently has a little over 3,500 students, so it's a decent size school. Last season three players signed NLI's to play D1 baseball (one was drafted, signed, and played Rookie Ball), prior to that only one other player had signed a NLI with a D1 university in the school's short existence. This season two players have already signed in the early period, and another will likely sign come Spring. IMO, once a school/community begins to establish itself as having talent, the college coaches and professional scouts begin to take note.

Rule of Thumb: Must be best player on HS team to play college?...doesn't always apply! You can be the stud on a small division high school, and transfer to a large division HS and struggle to crack the lineup or even make the team. Don't get me wrong, there are some very good players in the smaller divisions too (depends on strength of the league), but they generally have a tough time receiving the same attention. Of course there are exceptions, pitchers that throw 90+ are going to receive some love whether they're at a large school or a small one.

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Originally posted by fanofgame: I asked a private college recruiter why did they recruit so heavily from the private HS.he said two reasons, one they are used to the higher level academics, and the parents were able to afford a private HS, and would need less scolly money than other players.Not saying those players from those schools are not good, there are some very strong leagues in those HS.

A good friend of mine coaches in the mid-Atlantic and he said basically the same thing. Solid academics and affording the program some spare cash is a win all around.

There are alot of stacked high school teams in Texas so the rule really doesn't apply here. Established winning programs will have most seniors get an opportunity somewhere. I thought SandlotMom made an excellent point. Many college coaches aren't easily fooled. They know how to get past the names, reputation, early maturing stuff and find players that fill all the roles needed for a team.

Just to add examples:

2010 HS team best player did not get scholorship but 2 others did get assistance to play for their school (they received combined academic and athletic).

This year (2011) bumper crop with at least 2 D1 and 3 others already committed prior to playing senior season. Four others in the conference already commited, at least one of those a D1.

Hope that points out that rule of thumb "may not" apply.

Work hard, play harder...

As I read this thread; I need to remind myself that this forum is populated by baseball enthusiasts. The players (and their parents) care enough to seek information. If I had to guess most have kids that were part of programs where baseball was a priority (mine was).

However, the further I get away from the world my son participated, the more I see the hundereds of kids that have NO CHANCE to play at the next level.

The statistics are the statistics for a reason. It is great to hear about the schools where kids find success. But reality does not change. It is 1:100 that gets to go on and play at the next level. Scholarship players are fewer in number.

The message; plan accordingly and act on what is real and not what happens at programs which are more successful than the norm.

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The statistics are the statistics for a reason. It is great to hear about the schools where kids find success. But reality does not change. It is 1:100 that gets to go on and play at the next level. Scholarship players are fewer in number.

Exactly! NCAA numbers; about 2% of high school athletes go on scholarship to play a collegiate sport. Enough already with "my team and my area" numbers..

The point of the "my team" numbers isn't to say that the statistics are wrong. The point is that one has to make judgements based on the competition one is facing. If you play in the Marmonte League or the WCAL that I believe another poster was referring to you don't have to be the best player on your team to get a scholarship and generally speaking every starter and many who don't start on a Marmonte League team has a chance to play college ball at some level.

There are also leagues where the best player in the league may not be able to play college ball.

The point is that like most rules of thumb one has to be very careful not to apply it to the wrong situations.

I am going to copy what TRHit says: You have to be a starter on HS team. Having said that, taking out the powerhouse schools and the ones just trying to field a team, yea, generally the top 1 or 2 players are likely to have some college potential.

It depends on how you define college baseball. Half my son's high school starting lineup is capable of playing at some level of college ball should they choose to do so. Chances are most won't choose to attend the colleges where they could play. Some areas are baseball meccas with several top college prospects in a conference. Some small states may not have any top college prospects in a given year.

A friend of mine (form MLB player) told me he was not the best player on his HS team and he played in the bigs.

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Originally posted by bothsportsdad:
A friend of mine (form MLB player) told me he was not the best player on his HS team and he played in the bigs.

I have heard this (or a version of it) a number of times. "I was one of the better players, but not the best player on my team; I just had to work harder at it."

No you don't have to be the best player on your hs team to play college baseball. Sometimes the best player on the hs team doesn't play in college. Sometimes there are several players on a hs team that go on to play college ball. Sometimes there are none.

And sometimes the least talented player on your hs team goes on to play college ball. There will be a bull pen catcher at a very good d2 program this year that was a bull pen catcher in hs. He loves the game. He will not be outworked. He is determined to do what ever he is asked to do by his coaches. He is determined to play in college. And this college coach needs a young man just like that to be his bull pen catcher.

There are talented players that put conditions on playing at the next level. I had a rhp that was very good. But he didnt get any offers from Major D1 programs. He wanted to go to a big time school. He did not want to attend the schools that recruited him. So he is a student at a major college here in NC and is not playing baseball. Every kid has a different desire to play at the next level.

I had 6 kids one year go on to play college baseball. Two D1, three D2 and one JUCO. The JUCO was drafted and opted for the draft. And there have been years when the third or fourth most talented player was the only player that went on to play college baseball. Why? Because he was the only one that wanted to do what it took to play in college.

I have a former player playing in the Major Leagues right now. He was not the most talented player I coached in high school. There was a more talented player that simply like baseball , could dominate a high school game , but like to hang out , drink beer , and play softball. He hated school , was not going to work on his own , and is doing today what he likes to do. And I have had kids who were good hs players that were not "hs studs" that went on to have great college careers. Why? They stayed in the game long enough to reach their full potential. They worked very very hard. They were determined to play in college. And they continued to develop into their college years.

There is no rule of thumb outside of the rule of thumb of wanting it. If a player does not it will not happen. And if a player wants it bad enough he can make it happen.

I played for a terrible high school team. I wasn't the best player on the team. I played NAIA baseball because I wanted to.