Should Experts Be Trusted?

go figure......

This happens more often than people want to realize

Who came up with the term "expert"?

I find it used freely on this site

Mine has finals this week, otherwise I'd make my strongest professional and personal recommendation that he could match the lowest top velocity from last year.

It happens everywhere in life when someone is owed a favor. Legend or not, he may have been under a lot of pressure from some source and I wouldn't hold it against him other than being a bit more distrustful in the future. You guys did the right thing in checking so no harm, no foul and the kids who have earned a spot will get their chance.

My son got to play with and against some very good players this past weekend at the Sunshine West and it will be fun to see how many of them make it to the national and how well they do. My guess is that as many as 6 or 7 players that he played with or against in their two games will be invited.

Maybe the coach didn't realize the level of talent you have at your national showcase.

Based on our experiences, the recommendations from the 'legends' can be considered valid, as most of these coaches do not want to compromise their reputations or recommendations for future high quality players.

Tho not a legend, our son's high school coach was caught in that dilemma when one of his players wanted a recommendation for a mid-major D1 school. The coach knew that the player was not of the caliber that the school in question would recruit, and told the player and his irate parents that he could not send a letter of recommendation to the college, but that he was willing to write a recommendation for other schools, probably at a lower NCAA D level. Needless to say, the parents did a lot of slamming of the coach the rest of the season ... but he held to his position.

Perhaps this particular coach was in some kind of personal dilemma with this player ... friend? relative? some kind of personal connection? Am wondering in a case like this, after the fact, do you contact the coach to find out what was going on and why he made the recommendation? I would think, after this kind of discrepancy, you might be hesitant to give this coach's future recommendations as much value as you did in the past.

Just wondering ...

That hurts everyone. That's why you can send a college coach info that shows this award, that PG score, this velocity and that batting average. And they say "all I can tell lookin at this piece of paper is that he bats left handed."

HitaHomer,
That's why having the information posted by PG on their website is valuable. They do tend to trust the PG information, though like anyone else they'd like to see for themselves.

FBmom,
We've seen the same thing. Our coach was happy to send a recommendation to a coach at a program he thought my son fit. When a college that he really doesn't match up to yet asked for info I don't think he was quite as forthcoming, although I don't know that for a fact. It can be tough for the coach because if for example a player is attending the Stanford camp they'll ask the HS coach to fill out a questionnaire even if the player isn't really Stanford material. How does the coach balance doing right by his player and maintaining his integrity so that when he does have a player of that caliber they'll believe his recommendation? I'd put a positive spin on it but wouldn't try to mislead the school at all. My guess is that some coaches just won't fill it out in that situation.

I've seen cases where players I didn't think would get playing time managed to catch on with mid-D1s without a scholarship and I didn't think it was the best thing for the player. Of course, I'm no expert on judging talent so I could easily be wrong.

We can now extend the "Dad - 7" rule to "Legends - 11"

Off subject a little, but I went to the Dodgers/Cubbies game last week-end and was fortunate to have seats right behind Home where they let the various scouts sit with their Stalkers. I started a conversation with one of them on the reliability of stadium guns, which he pointed out is the reason you see all these guys with their own. I told him about our "Dad - 7" rule in HS ball and he about fell out of his seat laughing.

PG,
Sounds to me like the "legend" has never attended and seen the talent at a PG event!

Just a follow-up on my previous post. They posted the rosters for the PG National and the showcase team my son was on sent 4 players to the national, while the two teams he played against combined to send 5 players. A few more than the "as many as 6 or 7" that I had estimated. It'll be fun to see how they do.

.
Perhaps a more simple explaination....simple blame shifting, not necessarily a lack of coach/legend judgement.

Here is the scenerio...Player in, well evaluated all is well.

IF the player gets turned down/weak report...it's now PG's fault....

Legend coach can now say to the parents..."Hey you know how strongly I feel about little Johnny. I sent you a copy of my email, so you know I did my part. Those guys at PG are fools."

Simply shifts blame. Coach/legend might know for certain that little Johnny is a bust but now it's PG who takes the blame not coach/legend. Coach/legend walks away unsullied...even if he thinks the player has no talent.

44
.

quote:

Originally posted by observer44:
.
Perhaps a more simple explaination....simple blame shifting, not necessarily a lack of coach/legend judgement.

Here is the scenerio...Player in, well evaluated all is well.

IF the player gets turned down/weak report...it's now PG's fault....

Legend coach can now say to the parents..."Hey you know how strongly I feel about little Johnny. I sent you a copy of my email, so you know I did my part. Those guys at PG are fools."

Simply shifts blame. Coach/legend might know for certain that little Johnny is a bust but now it's PG who takes the blame not coach/legend. Coach/legend walks away unsullied...even if he thinks the player has no talent.

44
.

ob44 - your explanation makes perfect sense! Did you ever consider screenwriting btw - say for Oliver Stone for example

Perhaps the coach's Stalker was accidentally set to KILOMETERS per hour. DOH!

Perhaps the exchange rate is why I'm still here.

because on a good day, with a couple of Aleve....If I muscle up and throw from the mound, I can still touch 95(kph).

Stalkers don't lie

Momma always told me to tell the truth. I wish I followed her advise more often, but I've learned.. folks, tell it like it is. Sometimes I talk to parents about "Joe" throwing 85 and "Bob" throwing "83" and they're like, what???? My guy throws 96. Ya, right. I imagine there's a lot of fish stories in scouting but eventually that kind of stuff will catch up to them.

It's possible that this baseball coach/instructor made a lot of money from this family over the years and felt that a recommendation was harmless, not thinking it through.

quote:

felt that a recommendation was harmless, not thinking it through

Trouble is, his recommendation was not harmless. Sadly, some harm may have been done to his reputation.

Several months ago, my son's select director emailed a note of endorsement to a college coach. The coach responded, "I really appreciate your assessment of xx - you have always been very honest with us in the past so we take what you say very seriously." Later, when we were visiting with the coach, he told us of many high school and select coaches who oversell their players. He seemed pretty frustrated with their effusive praise and I assumed that he does not put a lot of weight on their recommendations. If they only knew how they are now regarded...

Recommendations are not an easy thing to deal with. You take coach A who has 30 years coaching at a high level and sent many kids onto bigger and better. Then you take coach B who has 5 years experience and is still building a program and none of this former players have went on anywhere.

Based on this it's easier to trust coach A because he has that knowledge and experience but does that mean he gets every recommendation right? Not at all. Now if this guy has recommended 30 kids and 25 were legit and the other 5 didn't pan out I think he is still a trustworthy source.

Does this mean coach B cannot evaluate talent? not at all. He may be able to spot a gem that hasn't got a lot of attention but because he doesn't have that track record the next level won't be as trusting in his opinion.

Now to talk about what FBM talked about I am pretty much the same way. If a kid come to me and asks for recommendation to the University of Really Good and he doesn't have the talent to go there I won't give him one but will try and talk him into trying for University of Where He Needs to Be (or that level). If he or his parents get ticked that is their problem not mine. They are just setting him up for failure and yes I will be the scapegoat. They are going to say if I had pushed him more he would have been kept although he wasn't good enough. It's a way to shift the blame from their son to me.

I am going to do whatever I can to help my players but I'm going to put them at the level I think they need to be. If they want to try higher they are more than welcome to try.

I have had college coaches call me about some of my guys wanting to know if they can play at their level and I give them my honest opinion. By doing this I am building up my reputation to be a coach A but it takes time but more importantly it takes honesty.

Sometimes people are just wrong although they believe to be right and that is why a coach A will sometimes miss a kid or send a kid to where he doesn't need to be. Think of all the scouts who are kicking themselves over Mike Piazza. Turned out to the one of the best offensive catchers in the history of the game but there were many coach A people who passed over him. Doesn't ruin their credibility because they still have a good consistent track record.

I fail to see the relationship between being an expert and being trustworthy. I’ve been hung out to dry by some very intelligent and knowledgeable people in the past. An expert can lie and deceive if he/she so chooses. On the other hand I know some people of average to below intelligence that are very trustworthy. Expertise is learned --- trust is earned.
Fungo

quote:

Expertise is learned --- trust is earned.

What is the relationship between intelligence and trust or expertise in your mind?

I do not think that there is any direct relationship

quote:

PG Staff posted: Well he is a great kid and a great student, but he threw in the mid 70s and had no other pitches beside the fastball.

Are you sure it was a fastball? Could he possibly be a change-up artiste?

I think you answered your own question regarding trustworthy experts. Here's to hoping Iowa dries out soon.

Hey, I recognize that Dome!

I'm excited to have the National Showcase here in Minneapolis! My hubby was there watching the preliminaries of the HR derby today while I was working.

But I get to go watch a game or two tomorrow, and the HR derby finals.


Julie

MN-Mom,
We'll be counting on a blog from you. Take good notes.

I disagree as well that such recommendations are harmless. Where a unworthy kid takes the roster spot of a worthy kid harm has been done. Thank goodness PG does his homework.

I think it's one of the reasons for a vetting process. No one knows the agenda behind the "trusted ones" letter...maybe he is taking the word of a trusted feeder coach, could be a whole bunch of stuff. The guy didn't get to be "Nationally Known" by being a powder puff...I find it a little harsh to think him "bad", "untruthful" whatever negative adjectives are thrown out there. He did what he did, PG has a process, the kid didn't measure up...ok...Was he sick or hurt or couldn't hang the spot light? Did his dog "Skippy" get run over the day before?
I wonder did the "trusted one" follow up? Has he failed the PG criteria previously?
And that 5 mph rule is insulting...CaDad is your boy throwing 78 or 79 per this cynical "rule", or is your personal Stalker out of Cal? Many of these parents want their kid to show in the best light...ok, most of them don't own a gun so are at the mercy of someone who does. My son was gunned by Perfect Game all last summer between 88-89, I'm not dreaming or making it up (Or adding 5-7 mph), he was gunned by NAIA schools that had different readings, Div 1 schools that had different readings, he's been gunned inside a covered artificial pen on cold days and outdoors on hot and ya know what? There was a bunch of different readings. I can't say that dads don't fudge up...so what, the proof is when they actually are scouted and well it could be different. I could tell you my kid was the Rocket on the internet...but when he does or doesn't make the cut it'll sure be apparent. That stupid rule makes folks want to not comment for cynical eye-rolling snikering by "Old-Timers" who ought to be kind enough to let life play out instead of oppressing discussion (Like they weren't there once).

jdfromfla, the only thing "oppressing" is your your inane response. Lighten up.

quote:

your inane response

ok
What part was inane, the part about PG and the vetting process and me not thinking the worst about "The nationally known" person?
Or me having a problem with the "rule"? I guess having an opinion about something may be inane but I figure the "forum" may be a place to voice an opinion. If you don't agree ok. I don't think worse of you for it..I'm sure it came off more than I wanted to as a rant. Sometimes it takes one who isn't "in" the pool to see what wouldn't be obvious to those swimming. Perhaps if you think about it a bit you may see a smidgen of truth in what I said...maybe not (If you don't see "The rule" as condescending and cynical, it is your perspective..I get a little perturbed when those of extensive experience or old homies look down their noses at people who are nothing more than proud of "Little Johnny" and maybe not as circumspect about their kids abilities as they should...I'll get over it..just so happened to pop off last evening). I apologize for riling you up and anyone else who may have been offended by my opinion, upon reflection I'm sure that it was somewhat incendiary and your retort, appropriate.

jd,
The reality is that people try to guage speed by eye and most of them can't. I saw proof of that first hand at the sunshine west. A college coach was watching a pitcher throw and someone asked him what he thought the kid was throwing. He said 80 mph. The kid (who pitched very well, with excellent off speed stuff and smart use of the fastball) topped out at 76 and worked 74-75.

I have a JUGS and not a Stalker so it is a bit of a guessing game for me as to what CASon will hit at a showcase. I know roughly what he's throwing on a JUGS coming into the showcase but I have no idea what he's got that day and I have no idea how the gun or guns he's being gunned on that day are reading. My guess is that the gun he was on at the CA Underclass was reading about 2 mph slower than my JUGS, but he may have simply been not throwing as hard that day. It happens. My guess is that the gun he was on at the Sunshine west was reading about 1 mph slower than my JUGS but I have no idea how much velocity he had or had not picked up in the month between the last time I'd gunned him and the Sunshine showcase. So although his velocity was up 3 mph between the showcases and his working velocity was up a bit more, my best guess between what I've gotten on the JUGS and what he got at the showcase is that he was up about 2.5 mph in the 5+ months between the showcases. It just isn't an exact science. The guns don't differ much from PG showcase to PG showcase since of course they are the same guns, other than it tends to be interesting to look at the velocity numbers at the sunshine showcases and the national for the same kids just one week later. Who knows, maybe having all those hard throwers together amps everyone up a bit?

In any case, I have the advantage of not being able to read velocities by eye at all. I'm terrible at it and so are most other people. I was at a college camp and several of us were sitting around the head coach who was showing us his gun readings. A lefty from Texas was throwing and registering 81-82 pretty consistently. He threw a high one and the coach asked us all what we thought he'd thrown and we all guessed in the range from 81 to 83. The coach showed us the gun and it was 86. Then the other day we were at a MLB tryout and a lefty looked like he was throwing pretty hard. I figured as hard and probably harder than my son had thrown so I asked what he was throwing and it was 5 mph less than my son who didn't throw particularly hard that day.

The moral of the story is that very few people can really judge velocity by eye. Some pitchers look like they are throwing slower than they are and some look faster. In general, people tend to estimate high even when they aren't looking through a parent's eyes so the -5 or whatever rule does tend to apply.

My point CaDad was that you get credability because of your place (I give you credability because you've always exhibited integrity...if you told me x...it's good with me, I need no proof and have no doubt). I agree with just about everything you and Bum and the others say..it just to me is unseemly to continue to chortle over this "rule", once or twice it's no more than an observation but to repeatedly go to it, IMO it makes those who other wise might talk, keep quiet. I'm not losing sleep over it..but you are a dad...what you say about CaSons speed is what it is (I can't tell you how much I respect your honesty). We should give other guys the benefit of the doubt. My boy, your boy, anybody's boy won't make it based on our desire, wishes or high esteem for their skills...it's a given, why belabor it?
Thats all...
I'm wearing me out

I know this will push the topic further south, but can someone PLEASE tell me the facination and purpose of gunning your own pitcher at a showcase or tournament?

Is there a discussion later, like "oh they gunned you at 85-87 but actually on my gun it was a bit higher". Or, "my gun must not be working today because velo readings were a bit slower than theirs was".

And, what is this information used for? Is this for training purposes?

I have yet to figure this all out.

quote:

Originally posted by TPM:

And, what is this information used for? Is this for training purposes?

I have yet to figure this all out.

I am not there yet, but I guess I would do it to understand where my son was throwing relative to his historical numbers and against my gun.(assuming you are keeping track of them)

I have started to log his numbers now and when he gets to the showcase level, then I should have a pretty good idea where I would expect him to throw V wise. If they were to report some wide difference to where I picked him up at then at least I would have some understanding where I thought he was at. People also make mistakes and maybe someone elses numbers get picked up or crossed up. It would also help validate the readings I had on him.

CAdad is right on visual "readings". I have seen kids I swear were throwing 5MPH harder than what they were actually throwing. They just "looked like they were throwing hard"

BTW the official HSBBW rule is "Dads -7 ; Legends -11"

Credit goes to mcdsguy, with additional postulate added in this thread.

TPM,
Never seen a parent bring a gun to a showcase, but I haven't been to many. If you got the impression I brought a radar gun to a showcase no I didn't. I check my son's speed once a month or so to see where he's at but there's no reason to do so at a showcase where someone else is doing it with a more reliable gun.

quote:

I have yet to figure this all out.

Picture...little Jimmy goes to "not-so-reputable pay for the road trip camp", shady don't care about nothing but revenue Coach Schmuck..needs campers...well it seems that lil Jimmy is throwin smoke 86 at 16 yrs old on Coach Schmucks gun (Jimmy feels good about coming back to the "great camp" and lil Jimmys dad thinks he's got a Josh Beckett on the hoof..and Coach Schmuck is counting another $3-500 entry fee for a couple more years)....dad tells everyone who will listen that lil Jimmy is smokin hot and a prospect...right up until he goes to reputable showcase x and finds out that lil Jimmy has hi 70's gas...he stands around scratching his head going "well he clocked at the University of Schmuck @ 86." I find it more sad and an indictment of Coach Schmuck...dads not innocent here, he just didn't spend the time to independantly verify before he embarressed himself. I just can't make fun of that...call me sensitive....

quote:

Anyway, we scour the country trying to find the very best prospects. We even have to turn down many outstanding players who will end up playing at a very high level of college and maybe even become early draft picks.

PGStaff:

I realize this may be a slight detour from the direction this post had been traveling, but your organization is considered to be a fairly Trusted Expert in evaluating players. This post, together with a conversation my wife and I had last night, prompted a question for you (and anyone else).

In the showcases and evaluations PG conducts, (or summer teams others are coaching), what do you do if / when you see a player you suspect is using steroids?

The question came up because after a game this past weekend, there was discussion about a player who is said to talk openly in the dugout about getting his shot once a week. The 2 questions from my wife last night were "What should the summer coach do?" and of course "What would DadR in TX do if he was coaching?"

Your thoughts?

DadR,

That’s a very good question.

First, in our position it’s difficult in most cases to suspect a player of using steroids. Unless we knew for sure, we wouldn’t say anything to anyone. This is not to say we don’t care, but we have seen lots of very big strong kids who do not use anything to get that way. It wouldn’t be fair to suspect steroids every time we see a big strong kid.

That said, we do sometimes see a player who has increased in size and strength dramatically over a one year period. It does cause one to think about all the possibilities. However, in our position, we wouldn’t ever say anything unless we were sure it was true. We have also seen kids who have grown and become much stronger naturally and with hard work. There is just too much at stake for the players to take a chance of being wrong with our suspicions. If the suspicions were very strong, we might talk confidentially to someone who is closely associated with the player if it were someone we knew and trusted. If somehow we knew positively (player admitted it) we would talk to those close to him or maybe even the player himself. Right or wrong, it is something we would never publicize.

I do think coaches and others who are much closer to a player they suspect is using PEDS, they need to talk to and help that player get fully educated as to the negative affects to both his health and potential future in baseball.