Should I be worried?

Pareto Principle?  Top 20% have committed to 80% of available funds.  About 800 2018s now committed.  Class of 2016 has slightly over 4100.  Up the middle players getting the majority of the love and the dollars.  Just a guess.

Just my uneducated opinion but from what I see based on the info you provided, if the goal is a power 5 team, yes you should be concerned.

That being said my equally uneducated opinion is I don't know that power 5 should be the goal.

I wish you nothing but the best, he has a great frame no doubt about that. I would expect he will have plenty of options on where he chooses to play.

Root,

Don't panic, the dollars are NOT gone until NLI's make it official. So, for '18's you're a year away, meaning there is still time to show "worth" to potential college coaches.

There is a lot of movement in relation to players rankings in the next year. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in them.  There are locally, 5 - '18 RHPs that are planning to attend multiple PG events next Spring and Summer, all are 90+ right now. I can't help to think there are more across the country that are going to attend their first PG events as well between their junior and senior summer. Every college staff in our region has been informed of the coming out party, if they're truly full, they all talk to each other and pass info.

To add to Catspop......of the top % of players being referred to as early commits.....remember approximately half (slightly under) of the MLB draft is comprised of those HS players. Meaning, additional spots are available as the college coaches know who's going pro.

old_school posted:

Just my uneducated opinion but from what I see based on the info you provided, if the goal is a power 5 team, yes you should be concerned.

That being said my equally uneducated opinion is I don't know that power 5 should be the goal.

I wish you nothing but the best, he has a great frame no doubt about that. I would expect he will have plenty of options on where he chooses to play.

I'm listening. Could you expand on why a Power 5 shouldn't be the goal? He's considering a range of schools and has offers from two Power 5's, just not schools he was all that enamored with.

old_school posted:

Just my uneducated opinion but from what I see based on the info you provided, if the goal is a power 5 team, yes you should be concerned.

That being said my equally uneducated opinion is I don't know that power 5 should be the goal.

I wish you nothing but the best, he has a great frame no doubt about that. I would expect he will have plenty of options on where he chooses to play.

There is a lot of truth here and a lot of schools over commit based on this. For example, my son had a conversation back in June at the Jr. National Showcase with two committed pitchers who told him they absolutely weren't going to college.

ok so from my perspective the recruiting process is not impressive at all. It is an imprecise guess at partially developed kids and where they stand in 3 to 6 years depending on the school and what level they play at.

Again IMO - the coaches are recruiting demographics - they want to input between 10 and 16 type X (fill in coaches preference) and if they do that they will spit out 4 to 6 successful players on the back side (my exact numbers may be off but the concept is pretty correct). At the D1 level I don't believe many care about your kid, at the power 5 level I believe even less do.
That doesn't make them bad people or bad coaches, you are just data crunch.

PBR ranking are fine, they are certainly not 100% correct and they are somewhat skewed. if you pay them enough it will help you, this just my opinion. it doesn't mean the rankings are junk but I don't believe the college coaches use them outside of possibly developing a list of names to see. They certainly don't blindly use the number to recruit by.

Back to power 5 if you aren't in high demand by now, why do you want to go there? Most of the teams you are referring to have already filled or are actively attempting to fill considerable parts of the 2019 class. Assuming you do find the power willing to give a shot, assuming it fits your sons personal / academic needs, IMO you are last in the class of the 2018 and behind much of the following years 2019 class they have already targeted.

Does that mean your son couldn't be successful? obviously not, but going on the go where you are loved theory and the you will know it if they really want you theory...how is power 5 sounding now?

Again just my opinion.

old_school posted:

Just my uneducated opinion but from what I see based on the info you provided, if the goal is a power 5 team, yes you should be concerned.

That being said my equally uneducated opinion is I don't know that power 5 should be the goal.

 

I agree 100% with Old School.  Please don't shoot the messenger, and I'm just one opinion.  Although your son has the size/frame and "projects", RHPs that are "sitting" mid to high 80s are very easy for Power 5 schools to find, either via the standard recruiting process or juco or other transfers.  Easy to find translates into "fewer dollars required to get them" IF they even have the need.    On the other hand, there are likely many mid-majors who are all over him.  Unless he has a great 3 pitch arsenal or even just a nasty swing and miss, "plus" breaking ball to go along with a lot of movement on his fastball, waiting for a Power 5 school may be a roll of the dice.  On the other hand, if his velo is progressing and you have strong reason to believe he will be consistently hitting 90+ next Spring, then it could very well be worth it.

No shooting the messenger. I, myself, have labeled him as not being the guy schools "have to have," but rather the guy they'll be willing to take after they don't get the guy they have to have. While he's not in heavy demand, maybe, he's far from not being in demand for Power 5 schools. I might not have made the issue as clear as I might have, but my worries wouldn't be in not getting any decent offers but rather in holding out longer and the possibilities he has now disappearing. He has two Power 5 offers and three other D1 offers. He might would have more, but at one point he started answering questions about his being willing to accept an offer with a desire to wait until after Jupiter. That has backfired since he missed Fort Meyers and Jupiter. 

Additionally, he actually was in higher demand around June. Since then, he hasn't progressed much. Mostly this has been due to the fact that he fought through a nagging injury all summer and fall and his velocity stalled out at 88, though he did top out at 89 in front of pro scouts at a game where there were no college recruiters, unfortunately. He also hit 90 in bullpen work more than once, but, again, no audience. 

Pretty much anyone that's evaluated him projects him over 90 easily and I see that myself. It actually shocks some people when I tell them he has had trouble getting interest from Mid-Majors. I had a conversation with someone in the know who told me straight out that he's in  a weird spot. Geographically, we're in a disadvantageous spot and talent-wise, there's a lot of ambiguity. The bigger Power 5's feel like they can wait to see if he progresses before they decide what, if anything, he's worth and Mid-Majors don't want to waste too much time with recruiting him because either, he'll wind up being a bigger fish wasting their time or he'll be in their wheelhouse and still available next year. There's also a mistrust that his professed interest in smaller D1's is legitimate. I think sometimes that if he were a 6' 1" / 170 lb. kid sitting 85-86 topping out at 87, it would be an easier recruiting decision for everyone involved. 

I do want him to go where he is loved, but I also want him to go to a school that makes sense academically, economically, and athletically. What I don't want him doing is panicking and taking one of the offers he's not currently excited about just because he's worried there won't be anything better coming along.

You've asked a really good question roothog.  I don't think I have the answer other than it is a bit of a poker game.  There's certainly a good chance they're telling you the truth - in today's landscape I do think the money starts getting eaten up around this time.  But the other part is, if they want you enough, they will find a way.

Time frame is totally different now, but I do remember Dean Stotz telling my wife that our son was in a position where he could literally wait to signing day and nearly anyone would find a way.   Our younger son needed to make his decision earlier while a couple of early offers were on the table, otherwise risk losing them.  He wouldn't have been ranked in the top 500 - but he could pitch his a$$ off and two schools figured it out early.

I guess the best advice is understanding where your son fits within these schools' recruits.  Rankings is but one piece of the puzzle.  One or more of these schools may have reasons to want your son more than his ranking predicts?  Maybe they've done their homework and know he will be a good student, knows how to pitch to contact with great command (I'm making this up - wouldn't know) and will entice others from his area to follow his lead?

One thing for sure he has going for him - he's already been identified by them.  It takes a little work to find a backup plan if one's not already in place.  Is one in place for all/any of them?

...lastly, he has a dad who is thinking about this with more depth than 99% of the other parents out there.  Let your brain, combined with your instincts, have a voice here.

I guess, to be honest, my biggest worry is that I lead him to wait for offers that never come and, for the rest of my life, my wife never, ever, lets me forget it.

Do you have a finite list of schools, or are you hoping some schools pop up as a result of performance, at which point you will look them over?  If the former and you have a finite list, I would group those into 1) offer extended, 2) lurking - waiting on spring season, and 3) dream schools with limited, if any, contact to-date.  Then start doing some research on rosters and get a feel for how many pitchers they carry, how many "graduate" or get drafted and how many simply fall away (get injured and quit, transfer, other).  Do they heavily source JUCO if they lose a recruit to the draft?  What is the success rate for a freshman pitcher getting to sophomore year and rate for sticking around for Junior year?  The comment above about this being somewhat of a poker game is true, so maybe you can do some card counting and maybe get some idea of how things might play out based on the data.

Sounds like baseball is a key component of the decision process, but you may need to start adjusting your weighting and start placing some additional emphasis on other factors (academics, campus, etc) in an effort to help in moving towards a decision.  If you do want to fully explore options to the point of approaching the draft (and see who falls out), you can look into the JUCO route as sort of a plan "C".  If there is still some reasonable upside on the pitching, then a year of JUCO could open up some additional options that are good fits.

roothog66 posted:

I guess, to be honest, my biggest worry is that I lead him to wait for offers that never come and, for the rest of my life, my wife never, ever, lets me forget it.

Here is what I can tell, my son had dreams of playing D1, he had his first contact from a top 50 school in December of his sophomore year, he had a fair amount of tire kicking after that...for a few reason that didn't workout but I had already prepped him for that possibility.

By the time it was all said and done he had D2 options but he wasn't interested in those for a few reasons...so he kind of just sat and waited (of course and worked) he wasn't real happy about it.

By the time the D3 got moving he had lots of interest, he had been dropped off the D1 screen and he took himself off the D2 list...where he landed he is thrilled, he loved the campus, his day visit, his overnight visit. His coach is thrilled to have him, just about every other school he talked to told him to get in touch with them ASAP if things don't workout as he hopes. There is life after plan A and sometimes you find a place you didn't expect to find!

At the end of the day he isn't going to be an MLB player ( go ahead prove me wrong) so I wouldn't worry to much about power5. I think he will have plenty of mid major offers if he lets them know he is genuine.

one other thing, yes he absolutely uses the D1 thing as chip on his shoulder, every time he hits a bomb off a D1 commit he gives me a critique on why the kid is going to get hammered next year...LOL I am good with that.

My favorite was one afternoon this summer we were playing a team that 6 D1 commits in the lineup, including the starting pitcher. We beat them in a what was maybe the best game of the summer. Jr had quite a day...I enjoyed it quite a bit. His comment to me after the game was - 6 D1's? I was the best hitter on the field. I just smiled because, well, he was right at least that day and #2 he is still hungry.

roothog66 posted:

I guess, to be honest, my biggest worry is that I ... and, for the rest of my life, my wife never, ever, lets me forget it.

That's a different website 

I would tend to echo the rest in saying there is still plenty of time.   What type of injury did he/does he have?   I'm sure most schools would want to make sure he's full healthy before they commit further.

Just to put it in perspective, the following are the commitments around him in the rankings. It's obviously more complicated than this simple list due to geographical concerns, etc., but it gives you an idea of what is happening with the 2018 class:

#150 - Oklahoma

#151 - Texas

#155 - Stanford

#156 - USC

#159 - USC

#162 - Purdue

#163 - my 2018

#165 - Michigan

#166 - Maryland

#167 - Arizona

#170 - Mississippi St.

#175 - Nebraska

#176 - Cal St. Fullerton

The point of this list is to sort of highlight my original concern. While in the past, I've assumed that outside of the very elite players, summer between Jr./Sr. year was more common for commitments. However, I didn't consider this range to be "elite." So, is there a shift in the idea of timing that has occurred in the past couple of years?

3and2Fastball posted:

I would tend to echo the rest in saying there is still plenty of time.   What type of injury did he/does he have?   I'm sure most schools would want to make sure he's full healthy before they commit further.

There was a strained glute early in the summer, but he pitched through it. It surely kept him from reaching 90, but he endured. During the Labor Day weekend he started experiencing some back pain. It only hurts at all when he's throwing upper 80's and in the finish. He's taken well to PT and it it doesn't seem to be a problem, but we won't feel completely confident until he takes the mound and I've shut him down until December 26. I don't won't to mess with that date.

I also expect he'll slide in the PG rankings when they come out due to the fact that they haven't seen him pitch in awhile and several lower and unranked pitchers have popped up on the scene recently.

Root, what is he looking for that the schools that have offered don't provide?  What kind of feedback is he getting from his top preference schools?  Are those the ones taking a wait-and-see or is he not that far down the road with his top choice schools?  How set are you on requiring significant athletic $$?  Has he re-engaged in communication with his targeted schools since missing Jupiter?

Do you think it is likely that the next round of buzz will occur when he next steps on the mound against live hitters in February?  If so, are things really going to change much between now and then?

I think a window may have been missed but for the right reasons if he wasn't healthy.  There are other windows.  I don't think you can blame yourself for doing the right thing protecting his health.  Is it possible that missing that particular window results in one or two of many doors closed?   Sure, but you know the drill.  Control what you can control.

Trust me, I know as a Dad it is easy to kick yourself and second guess decisions.   Holding him out of Jupiter & Ft Meyers so he could fully recover was, in my opinion, really really smart.   The health of his right arm is #1.   A glute and/or back flair up could easily become an arm problem, and instead you guys are being extremely smart to let him fully recover.

I worked for a fairly big Baseball Academy last year that places a lot of players into D1.   I did see a trend towards earlier commitments.   I also have seen players getting screwed by decommits in their Senior year and all sorts of other shenanigans that makes commiting early seem like a foolhardy move that benefits the Travel Program more than the kid.   Unless there is an offer that makes sense financially from his dream school there is no reason why you need to commit early.

He's a pitcher.   Every coach values pitching.   The rankings make it seem sometimes like a RHP throwing 88-90 is a dime a dozen but in reality if his arm stays healthy he will be sought after once he returns to the mound healthy.

Just my opinion....

Oh, and ask Kyle Hendricks if someone can't play pro ball if they "only" throw 88-90 mph

If your son is a true pitcher not just a thrower there will be doors open for him.   Does he miss bats?   Does he have or can he develop great movement on his pitches?   Is he a student of the game?   Does he love to compete?

I know we are in an era that greatly values metrics but ultimately a pitcher can get outs or not.

Is a lot of the money disappearing? Probably. Were you expecting him to get more then 25%? If not, there will probably be money left early next summer.

Now we tie this in to "go where they love you." Are the programs you're holding out for in that category? Or is it going to be "we have one more 25% ride spot. You will the 6th of our six pitching recruits?"

Unfortunately injury brings gambling into play. How much better will your son be early next summer? Who will have money (and how much) by next summer? 

I saw plenty of kids hold out for their dream school and get it. But because they were lower on the recruiting list they didn't get much of a chance to get on the field and eventually transferred. 

You have to decide where your son was before the injury and evaluate where he fit in then. Then you have to ask will he return to that level by early next summer. If you want to go out on a limb can you determine how much better he will be next summer than his optimum point this year? 

I think I would take the best fit (baseball and academics) that's hot for him now. But it's only a suggestion. It's a decision you have to make.

its definitely a difficult decision when throwing  injury and return from injury into the mix.

Do all of these programs know your son has an injury?

If your son isn't excited about any of these programs, why are you trying to rush this. 

You want your son to increase his velo,  do PT, and get him in better shape, with more excercise and better mechanics.  Let him show his stuff when he shows it better. If he is hitting 90 like you say he should be, he will get interest.

Seems like you are more afraid of no offer than the right fit.  Why does it have to be a power5 school?  

Yes, he might slide, but I would be more concerned with a healthy player than a hurt player.

And don't forget it's all about the education. I have not heard one word that they offer the degree your son is interested in.

I'm maybe coming off a little more concerned than I really am. I think he'll be fine regardless of how things shake out. Most of this came from the two above mentioned conversations over the weekend which painted a picture of greatly accelerated timelines compared to the very recent past.

TPM posted:

Do all of these programs know your son has an injury?

If your son isn't excited about any of these programs, why are you trying to rush this. 

You want your son to increase his velo,  do PT, and get him in better shape, with more excercise and better mechanics.  Let him show his stuff when he shows it better. If he is hitting 90 like you say he should be, he will get interest.

Seems like you are more afraid of no offer than the right fit.  Why does it have to be a power5 school?  

Yes, he might slide, but I would be more concerned with a healthy player than a hurt player.

And don't forget it's all about the education. I have not heard one word that they offer the degree your son is interested in.

  

I do think I mentioned academic and financial fit more than once. As to degrees offered, he's still shown no particular interests, which I think is ok. I believe most kids who are too stringent on particular degrees find themselves rethinking that choice quite often when they get into college. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you missed the references I've made to the fact that he currently has offers (including Power 5 schools - I've mentioned it more than once) so it is about the right offer rather than a fear of no offers. I guess I might be slightly worried that current offers will expire, if that's what you meant. However, when I look at the totality of the situation, I believe he'll be just fine. There are still a lot more spots available than there are players more attractive than him. The offers just may be less attractive the longer he waits, but I can live with that compared to having him commit out of fear.

True Story;

During our Area Code games at Fresno State a few years ago, one of the pitchers from the Hawaii team mentioned he desired a college on the West Coast. Later in the day, I approached Bobo Boyston, Head Coach from Washington State. He watched the young pitcher throw his three innings and one hour later the boy received a baseball scholarship and entered his future college in 20 days.

I tracked his progress and he had great success in his 4 years.

Our Yankee and Red Sox Scout teams will next month travel to Australia in December and 4 - 5 players will receive College scholarships from the 24 game schedule.

"keep the faith"

Bob

<rwilliams@goodwillseries.org>

I assume the schools making the offer from the power 5 are not consistently winners and that's the problem?  If your kid needs to develop he needs to go to a school where is really wanted and the coaches have patience.  The last thing you want to do is hold out for a "winning school" where he'll sit on the bench and/or learn nothing because the coaches idea of development is to just go get another kid that's already developed.

I didnt miss where you said he had many offers. And that he isnt enamoured with any, but I will bet a lot of folks with 2018s are rollng their eyes saying, "nice problem to have".

However, this is just another example that while committing is different than it was many years ago, there is one thing that hasnt changed, dont settle and make sure the right fit isnt all about the money or the prestige of the program. 

Also with no disrespect to PG and/or PBR, the rankings in my personal opinion are not the be all end all that leads a coach to recruit someone (or not recruit someone).  So what that kids "lower" ranked (and higher ranked) have made commitments?!  Plenty of 2018s not even on scouting services radar screens.  Some of those early commits will decommit.  Some will go in the draft.  Focus on finding the right place for YOUR son and don't worry about these other kids.  

And, by the way, if I sound a little sour grapes about ratings, ok I will admit it!  A kid who gets outs is not rated as highly as a kid who throws faster but can't pitch.  Seen  it over and over again.  Not that the kid who gets outs is a slouch on the radar gun, just a few miles less than where he needs to be.  But the kid throwing high 80's/90 gets ranked way higher regardless.  Love the fact that maybe Kyle Hendricks will force some coaches (and perhaps rankings!) to rethink that only velo matters -- so does effectiveness (and secondary stuff and knowing how to pitch and of course projectability). 

Ok not to hijack this, I just love the advice to control what you can control.  Focus on where he wants to go and not worry about where everyone else is going...

Great thread you've started here Root.  Appreciate the candor and your concern.   Have not read a thread in its entirety like this in a while.  Not that I know, but only that I've heard it time and again, good thing is your kid's a PO and it seems coaches can always find room and money (at least the 25%) for another quality arm if they really want him.  

But your prudence is warranted and is probably the type of thinking from dad that has gotten son to this point in his recruiting process.   And that's a good thing.   As someone said above, your boy is lucky to have you thinking about the big picture.   Amazed at how many parents think "I got this" and they don't!   And it's the player in the end who feels the sting.  

Couple concerns with the post about area code and wsu

1. Last time Bobo Brayton, not Boyston, was head coach at washington state was in the late 80's and 90's and not as you note a few years ago

2. The recruiting world has changed, where the area code games compliments many other big recruiting events such as tos, jo's, wwba 17u, pg national, during the summer and there is almost never scholarship money from a power 5 left unless an offer has already been extended

3. While that player may have committed to wsu after the event, that was the 90's when it wasn't even thought of to recruit the sophomore and jr class, and many players committed their senior years because offers were only given out at this time

roothog66 posted:

I think sometimes that if he were a 6' 1" / 170 lb. kid sitting 85-86 topping out at 87, it would be an easier recruiting decision for everyone involved. 

I know what you mean here but i also love it when i see things like this height/weight comment. Son is 5'10"/ 170lbs up to 95 last year with a broken bone in his wrist at a Power 5. On top on that he is a commodity....a RHP. 

I think you are excited and a bit panicked...i was too but for far more serious reasons (small framed labeled "Max effort" pitcher) until that Junior to Senior year summer. It all worked out, stay calm and trust your son's stuff, size and the interest that is there right now. It should be there with the possibility of more next summer. 

Best of luck to you and your son.

I haven't posted here in a LONG time, but was recently re-reading some old threads and came across this one and thought it might be worth updating.

In the end, my 2018 did commit around this time to a Big West school for an above average offer. He did so because we were worried (as you can see from the thread) that schools were running out of scholarship $$$ and offers would disappear. Oh, if only I knew then what I know now. This school ended up being a horrible fit for him - mainly in terms of living arrangements and academics, but I won't get into the details.

At the time he was a decent prospect, but not the "must have" guy - sitting 88-90/T91. In November of his senior year he signed the NIL. Then came the high school season. He improved to a guy sitting 92-93/T95, struck out 121 batters in 50.1 innings. Gave up only 6 hits all year. He was an NABC All-American. So, all of those big P5 programs that we gave up on waiting for? The ones supposedly that would be out of money to offer? They all start inquiring as to whether he signed his NIL. Yeah, there was still money there. If only we had waited.

As it is, he never threw an inning of D1 ball, spent most of his time academically ineligible and, just as he was getting his act together at the JC level, covid hit. A lot of "what could have been" in this post. Of the 12 pitchers on that 2018 A/A team, he's the only one that isn't at least in AA ball and several are already in the majors.

My advice? Enjoy the ride, make sure your kid is happy with his choices and don't sweat the recruiting process.

Wow, very very interesting. With that velo. Would have thought he would have garnered mlb interest.  The academically ineligible is why my son chose not to go the school route.  He hated reading, hated studying, hated school.  Real bummer like you said.

@Dadof3 posted:

Wow, very very interesting. With that velo. Would have thought he would have garnered mlb interest.  The academically ineligible is why my son chose not to go the school route.  He hated reading, hated studying, hated school.  Real bummer like you said.

He did. We had made it clear with interested clubs that he was going to school unless he was drafted with enough of a bonus to justify it. Two clubs wanted to draft him, but with low money in the 11th-15th rounds. In retrospect, given how he handled college, it's something we should have considered.

I did want to be clear that if he hadn't had the senior year he did, the late interest wouldn't have been there, so maybe it's easier to evaluate this looking back. Maybe the biggest mistake, given his situation, was that we didn't consider the Juco route for his first year (this was before you could transfer D1 to D1 without sitting out a year).

Good to hear from you Root. 

Thanks for sharing.

@roothog66 posted:

My advice? Enjoy the ride, make sure your kid is happy with his choices and don't sweat the recruiting process.

Thanks for updating and especially this piece of advice.  I use this site mostly as therapy when my brain is maxed out on What-ifs.  Then I read a thread like yours and it resets me back to relaxed and realistic mode 🤣

In reading your thread I can totally put myself in your shoes and feel the timing pressure even though my son is about a year away from recruiting. When you were going through the HS recruiting, who was driving the decisions?  You, your son, both?  And who was more anxious?