Some Takeaways from D1 Regionals

An over emphasis, perhaps, on recruiting MPH vs finding pitchers who miss bats?

3and2Fastball posted:

An over emphasis, perhaps, on recruiting MPH vs finding pitchers who miss bats?

That could very well be, 3and2, but I will say that the games I watched, everyone was getting lit... crafty lefties, sidearmers, straight over with steep downward, power guys, ... 

I watched all day yesterday.  The thing I noticed was that by the time you get to this point in the year, every team can hit.  They mentiioned that Tennessee Tech has hit 131 home runs, 11 were in a 3 game series at Morehead...so those don't count (if you've ever been to Morehead you'll know why I said that)...but that still leaves 120.  My son's team had FOURTEEN total, which is ridiculous for a D1 team, but 120 is just as ridiculous to me.  My son throws 90-91 on a good day.  Against the better teams he threw again, a 91 mph fastball can get sent 380-400' away real quick.  Almost all the pitchers yesterday seemed to be in the 90-91mph fastball range...a few faster, but 90-91 seemed to be the norm.  Same result.....fastballs over the plate got hit HARD!!!   I think some of it was that some teams had had to burn a lot of pitching over the first 3 days....but I really think most of it was that the teams in the regionals are just really good offensively. 

I was a little surprised at how many "bad" errors I saw.  I thought all season that it was just my son's bad luck that his defense seemed to find a way to boot balls around whenever he pitched...but even the top teams kicked around some easy ones....and as is usually the case with good teams....it ends up costing them runs.  A couple games were decided because of errors allowing unearned runs.   I guess it happens everywhere.   Really looking forward to next weekend.  There are some really good matchups

I was wondering the same thing. There were a lot of pitchers with high ERA's and few innings coming in with season on the line. There were also aces getting shelled early. My takeaway is fatigue from a few aces and then you have no option but to hope someone steps up?

I wasn't able to see much this weekend, but from what I saw the velo numbers were not impressive. I wonder if a lot of guys are just plain tired.  Games, girls, schoolwork, exams, graduation for the seniors - it adds up.  My son didn't play a single post-season game, but when he came home from D3 he slept for a week, and he's still dinged up all over.

The one thing that stands out for me is the overall lack of FB command. Good arms all around but continuously behind in the count, inability to hit spots with the FB. Very difficult to get outs vs quality hitters with this approach.

JCG posted:

I wasn't able to see much this weekend, but from what I saw the velo numbers were not impressive. I wonder if a lot of guys are just plain tired.  Games, girls, schoolwork, exams, graduation for the seniors - it adds up.  My son didn't play a single post-season game, but when he came home from D3 he slept for a week, and he's still dinged up all over.

That could be too....as I have no way to know what their normal velo numbers were....but I would have thought there would be more that were over 90-91.   I will tell you though that my son's friend pitched on Friday.  I didn't see it, but son watched.  TV broadcast had him 83-85 which was lower than he usually threw.  Son said it looked harder.  He talked to his friend after the game....the scouts there to seem him had him 87-89.  Maybe the TV numbers weren't always accurate.   I know my son didn't throw as many innings this season as last year....and even with that was still 2-3 mph lower at the end of the year than early.  He's throwing tonight in summer league after having had almost 4 weeks off since he's thrown in a game.   I'll see if his velo is back up

The Stanford regional, in particular both Fullerton vs Stanford match-ups, had great pitching.  Freshman starter for Fullerton last night had 11 Ks in 6 2/3 innings.  He hit 90 and was painting the black at the knees all night (and got some generous calls from the ump).  Great defense too.

I think there is a big drop off in pitching and that is the big culprit.  I watched DBU get shut down by Sandlin from Southern Miss.  He is one of the best pure pitchers in the game.  Then DBU came out and killed the ball.  I watched the #2 at Arkansas shut down a good Southern Miss team by hitting spots and throwing 88-89 as a lefty.  Then Arkansas brings in a Freshman who gives up 4 hits and everything was a rocket.  College hitters can hit.  Great pitching will shut down the bats, but there are only 3-4 of those guys out there on a given team.  Some might have 5 and others may only have 1.  I also agree with 3and2, there is too much focus on velocity guys that can't pitch.  I understand velocity plays and the more the better, but you have to be able to pitch or the top teams are going to light you up. 

On the HR totals, Arkansas is closing in on 100 and Florida is right behind them.  I think those two teams played the #1 and #2 SOS so they faced top competition all year.  I think we are seeing the combo of strength training and launch angles at work. 

Velocity that doesn't move enough, or velocity without great secondary pitches (so a hitter can't just sit fastball) is going to get absolutely crushed.  College Hitters are getting more & more advanced these days.  Oregon State in particular has a whole lineup of great hitters....

MPH will always have it's place but I think as technology advances you will see more pitchers getting recruited to top schools based on spin rate.

I was thinking of how most teams get by during the regular season relying on so few pitchers and then when they get in these regionals and have to go deeper into their pitching, they get exposed.  But thinking of the math, it is hard to imagine that with 27 players and 8 walk-ons that there is not more pitching depth.  You wonder if there aren't another 4-5 guys on some of these teams who can pitch but never get a chance to during the regular season. 

Why don't some teams spread it out more during the season and rest up the main guys more and also benefit from getting a deeper staff?  I know that may be tough for some teams that need every win to be selected, but for some of these one-bid leagues who it all depends on winning their tourney anyway, they should try it.

P.S. How the Big West got only one team, Cal State Fullerton, is criminal.  Every year that league seems to advance a team to Omaha but still only one team gets in this year?  Stanford as the #2 seed should have never gotten stuck with them in their regional.  I know we West Coasters grumble too much about East Coast bias, but its for reasons like this that there is a basis to the argument every year.

I'm with you on that P.S. Backstop22.  Its been going on for a while - I don't really understand it.

+ a million Backstop.   Ridiculous.

Well, guys, normally I would agree but...

My local, Cal Poly, finished second in the Big West.  They were swept by Fullerton, swept by UCLA, didn't really have any other signature wins and aside from a late push, often looked pedestrian.

East coast bias refers to the region between DC and Boston. It’s mostly about New York and Boston in professional sports. In baseball it’s due to the Red Sox and Yankees. No one on the east coast thinks of east coast and thinks VA to FL.  We’re amused enough people in the west think Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland are in the east.

If there’s a bias in college baseball its towards the ACC and SEC. But the bias has been established with success. Another bias is people outside the Big Ten believe the conference sucks. Weather will probably prevent Big Ten teams from keeping their best players from going south and winning a national title. But the teams have become far more competitive than in the past. 

Traditionally, I look at the Big West as a 6th power conference. There are some good programs. When I gave it some thought this weekend there is far more balance of quality teams across about eight conferences in baseball than other college sports. A team from the Sun Belt Conference wouldn't even be allowed in the football playoffs.

I’m shocked highly regarded programs with sixteen, seventeen pitchers are bringing back first day starters to close games on one days rest. Or bringing a pitcher with over one hundred pitches back after a two plus hour rain delay. Colleges coaches recruit on “this program can get you to pro ball.” But not if he torches your arm in college riding you like a pack mule.

There were only 3 teams with an overall winning record in the Big West.  Cal Poly finished #2 at 30-27 with an RPI of 129.  There was no way two teams from that conference was getting in this year. 

RJM....agree.  I don't think people outside the south have any idea how much difference it makes that they can be outside on a field in December & January as opposed to having to work out in an indoor facility.  I don't care how nice and big your facility is, it's just not the same.  Couple that with the fact that if it comes down to the top recruits picking a school in the south (warm weather, no games under 55-60 degrees, 75% of your games at home) or a B1G school (where you are going to have a couple days practices/games in teams under 40, first 4-5 weekends on the road, etc) it's not hard to see why the SEC and ACC teams are just deeper.....enough deeper that the B1G can compete....but it's going to be tough to beat them regularly.  I know, I know....Minnesota is in a Super and they have the worst weather of any B1G team.   I have no idea how that works....it must have something to do with hockey and those funny shaped sticks

Buckeye 2015 posted:

RJM....agree.  I don't think people outside the south have any idea how much difference it makes that they can be outside on a field in December & January as opposed to having to work out in an indoor facility.  I don't care how nice and big your facility is, it's just not the same.  Couple that with the fact that if it comes down to the top recruits picking a school in the south (warm weather, no games under 55-60 degrees, 75% of your games at home) or a B1G school (where you are going to have a couple days practices/games in teams under 40, first 4-5 weekends on the road, etc) it's not hard to see why the SEC and ACC teams are just deeper.....enough deeper that the B1G can compete....but it's going to be tough to beat them regularly.  I know, I know....Minnesota is in a Super and they have the worst weather of any B1G team.   I have no idea how that works....it must have something to do with hockey and those funny shaped sticks

 

When Vanderbilt won the national championship their #1, #2, closer and cleanup hitter were from Massachusetts. If Boston College could keep these players along with about ten others who head south in state imagine how good they would be. 

Boston College loses most of the top tier New England talent to heading south. They get second tier New England talent and third tier southern talent (after the Sun Belt Conference and similar recruit). Then they have to compete in the ACC against teams with top tier southern recruits.

The top recruit in MA this year is projected as a sure shot first rounder. He’s passing on the draft to go to UVA. Imagine, Boston College can’t recruit a kid who goes to Boston College High School. 

UConn occasionally keeps some quality late bloomers in state and has a good team (this year). The last time UConn was good was with George Springer and Matt Barnes.

I believe BC is hindered by the parade of ACC teams coming through town the high school kids see playing. The ACC has cache. I doubt CT kids see a UConn game and think, “Someday I want to play in the AAC.” They probably can’t name three teams in the conference.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

I watched all day yesterday.  The thing I noticed was that by the time you get to this point in the year, every team can hit.  They mentiioned that Tennessee Tech has hit 131 home runs, 11 were in a 3 game series at Morehead...so those don't count (if you've ever been to Morehead you'll know why I said that)...but that still leaves 120.  My son's team had FOURTEEN total, which is ridiculous for a D1 team, but 120 is just as ridiculous to me.  My son throws 90-91 on a good day.  Against the better teams he threw again, a 91 mph fastball can get sent 380-400' away real quick.  Almost all the pitchers yesterday seemed to be in the 90-91mph fastball range...a few faster, but 90-91 seemed to be the norm.  Same result.....fastballs over the plate got hit HARD!!!   I think some of it was that some teams had had to burn a lot of pitching over the first 3 days....but I really think most of it was that the teams in the regionals are just really good offensively. 

I was a little surprised at how many "bad" errors I saw.  I thought all season that it was just my son's bad luck that his defense seemed to find a way to boot balls around whenever he pitched...but even the top teams kicked around some easy ones....and as is usually the case with good teams....it ends up costing them runs.  A couple games were decided because of errors allowing unearned runs.   I guess it happens everywhere.   Really looking forward to next weekend.  There are some really good matchups

Tech's whole lineup can crush. Every player that got an AB hit a homer including a kid with only 4 AB's this year. 7 of the starting 9 have double digit HR's. They must have a heck of a hitting coach there right now. 

Scotty83 posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

I watched all day yesterday.  The thing I noticed was that by the time you get to this point in the year, every team can hit.  They mentiioned that Tennessee Tech has hit 131 home runs, 11 were in a 3 game series at Morehead...so those don't count (if you've ever been to Morehead you'll know why I said that)...but that still leaves 120.

Tech's whole lineup can crush. Every player that got an AB hit a homer including a kid with only 4 AB's this year. 7 of the starting 9 have double digit HR's. They must have a heck of a hitting coach there right now. 

They're up 10-0 over Ole Miss right now. Top of the 9th.

Backstop22 posted:

I was thinking of how most teams get by during the regular season relying on so few pitchers and then when they get in these regionals and have to go deeper into their pitching, they get exposed.  But thinking of the math, it is hard to imagine that with 27 players and 8 walk-ons that there is not more pitching depth.  You wonder if there aren't another 4-5 guys on some of these teams who can pitch but never get a chance to during the regular season. 

Why don't some teams spread it out more during the season and rest up the main guys more and also benefit from getting a deeper staff?  I know that may be tough for some teams that need every win to be selected, but for some of these one-bid leagues who it all depends on winning their tourney anyway, they should try it.

P.S. How the Big West got only one team, Cal State Fullerton, is criminal.  Every year that league seems to advance a team to Omaha but still only one team gets in this year?  Stanford as the #2 seed should have never gotten stuck with them in their regional.  I know we West Coasters grumble too much about East Coast bias, but its for reasons like this that there is a basis to the argument every year.

The biggest thing to remember is that you have to win games to get to the regionals. Once you establish your weekend rotation, those guys are expected to go deep as they can into the lineup.  It's the pitching coaches job to continue to work with the rest of the staff, which will put in work as trusted relievers and possibly be starters or even closers.  Come the end of the year, you will be expected to perhaps pitch in any role.

I think you still see two types of guys on the mound.  Throwers and pitchers.  You see guys either have great velocity and little control or great control and lower velocity.  My son has been told by multiple college and pro guys to never lose his control to get velocity.  But I have wanted to scream at every one of them, then recruit or sign guys that don't have the velocity.  When you look at top pitchers recruited or guys drafted, it seems to all be about velocity rather than control.  But when you look at effectiveness, most of the time it comes down to control.  It is tough for young guys to find the happy medium.  My son tells me all the time, I'm not going to walk a kid, even in a showcase, to have some guy's radar gun record a higher speed.

I highly doubt any of those pitchers who were drafted yesterday only were for their velocity.  

There are definetly two types of pitchers. There is a place for them in the college game. However, one must be realistic in finding the right program.

JMO

TPM ... After watching some of the pitching usage decisions in regionals (same every year) when your son was being recruited did you have him shy away from certain college programs based on reputation for over using pitchers? 

I know back at that time the LSU coach (before Mainieri) was known as an arm abuser. Rice is known for overuse.

Several years ago I was watching a Villanova-West Virginia game. Something on the stat sheet matched up with what I was seeing on the field. I asked a WV dad. He went into a rant about the coach and how pitchers are handled.

My takeaway was that as i have watched the SEC tournament and now the NCAA tournament, I see a lot of guys who throw really fast but have little control.  They throw just enough strikes to get guys to swing out of fear that it is a strike but they really do not throw that many strikes that would be called strikes.  Whereas the guys who can nip and tuck don't have the speed.  I think both are recruited and drafted but the speed guys are drafted a lot higher.  Again, I don't think you can change it.  You have to use what God gave you and/or you developed.  Very few in history have had both.

My takeaway is I overdosed on baseball. For four days I had the games on from about 2pm until the last out at 1 or 2am. I had a break on Saturday. I didn't start watching until 6pm (by orders and after dining out).

It helps when your better half was a college athlete and an NCAA ref. Now she trains refs. She may not like it (me watching so much). But she gets it. 

There are teams you just don't hear about. I didn't realize FAU and Tenn Tech were so good. I know more about the background of P5 bottom feeders. 

RJM posted:

My takeaway is i overdosed on baseball. For four days i had the games on from about 2pm until the last out at 1 or 2am. I had a break on Saturday. I didn't start watching until 6pm (by orders and after dining out).

It helps when your better half was a college athlete and an NCAA ref. Now she trains refs. She may not like it (me watching so much). But she gets it. 

There are teams you just don't hear about. I didnt realize FAU and Tenn Tech were so good. I know more about the background of P5 bottom feeders. 

Same here and the last paragraph is the truth.  There are some very good smaller programs out there that are much better than the bottom half of the P5 schools.

RJM posted:

TPM ... After watching some of the pitching usage decisions in regionals (same every year) when your son was being recruited did you have him shy away from certain college programs based on reputation for over using pitchers? 

I know back at that time the LSU coach (before Mainieri) was known as an arm abuser. Rice is known for overuse.

Several years ago I was watching a Villanova-West Virginia game. Something on the stat sheet matched up with what I was seeing on the field. I asked a WV dad. He went into a rant about the coach and how pitchers are handled.

Son went where he felt most at home and to work under Sully.

Freshman season he pitched the most innings of a freshman in the program and after 3 years he logged a lot of innings, but he was not a weekend starter until junior year. 

If you heard the guys on ESPN, Brady Singer actually had to sit behind 2 guys. When I mean sit, I mean his innings were controlled because he was offered a lot of money and Sully knows how to keep arms healthy, though I think he was suffering from a hamstring issue a few weeks back.

It's also tough when you inherit guys and you know nothing about them. That's endless hours of watching them from previous years. 

I don't know what over use is because I think it is dependent upon each individual, with common sense from the coaches. We saw that last weekend. 

Yes it used to be really bad. Most of those guys aren't in the game anymore.