For the stat junkies.
http://www.arthurdevany.com/webstuff/images/DeVanyHomeRunMS.pdf
Original Post
Replies sorted oldest to newest
Great paper!
"There are lies; **** lies and then there is statistics" Mark Twain
Alright to try and simplify this a little bit. This guys premise is that based on the numbers, homeruns have not changed that much over the years and that McGwire and Bonds are just idiot suvants when it comes to homeruns. That the statistical anomoly of their homeruns per year are explained by their genius for the homeruns.
If I cheat on a test that a thousand other people take, I may score 100% and the average of the other 999 people may be 75% and the highest other score may be 90%. My test that I cheated on changed the average to 75.025 therefor it is statistically insignifigant. BUT I CHEATED.
If I cheat on a test that a thousand other people take, I may score 100% and the average of the other 999 people may be 75% and the highest other score may be 90%. My test that I cheated on changed the average to 75.025 therefor it is statistically insignifigant. BUT I CHEATED.
I read through this too. The premise of the author is as summarized by deldad. Unfortunately, the premise does not examine the career accomplishments of Bonds against projected career stats based on Bonds' history and age.
Bill James used to have something he called the 'Favorite Toy' that projected career statistics for a player using a formula that includes the player's current rate of production and an estimate of the years remaining in the player's career. I wonder what the 'Favorite Toy' projection looked like for Bonds prior to the steroid era.
Bill James used to have something he called the 'Favorite Toy' that projected career statistics for a player using a formula that includes the player's current rate of production and an estimate of the years remaining in the player's career. I wonder what the 'Favorite Toy' projection looked like for Bonds prior to the steroid era.