We know of a player who was drafted in the 7th round last year. Didn't sign. Decommitted from a certain D1 school and went the JC route instead, thinking he'd be drafted higher this year. Unfortunately, he slipped to the 28th round. Wonder how often this sort of thing happens?
Replies sorted oldest to newest
More than you can imagine. Baseball scouts have "long memories". The player did not improve.
Bob
About twenty years ago a friend backed out of a verbal commitment after being drafted in the 8th round. He wasn't drafted after his senior year. Only top shelf studs get away with this kind of behavior.
Slugger dad,
All projections that support draft decisions have a certain amount of optimism built into them: assumptions that the player will stay healthy, stay out of trouble, get stronger, improve his skills, and increase his knowledge of the game.
When a high school player is drafted, the pros have an idea how much better they expect him to get over the next several years.
In order to get drafted in the same position after college, his post-high school progress must track along with the progress projected back when he was first drafted so as to support projections for further improvement.
When a high school player who is drafted decides to go to college in hopes of being drafted in a higher position in a future draft, he is making a bet that his development will exceed the pro team's optimistic expectations when they drafted him and offered a bonus.
Implicit in that bet are the assumptions that he has a better grasp of his pro potential than the pros do and that he is able to realize that potential without their help.
It's seldom a good bet because those are seldom sound assumptions.
SluggerDad posted:We know of a player who was drafted in the 7th round last year. Didn't sign. Decommitted from a certain D1 school and went the JC route instead, thinking he'd be drafted higher this year. Unfortunately, he slipped to the 28th round. Wonder how often this sort of thing happens?
We have had this discussion, guess this proves its not really a good idea.
Sounds like the player wasnt happy from what they were willing to give him.
If one really wants to sign to play professional ball, money should not be important.
And do you really know the true story. If be had a solid commitment, he wouldnt have decommited.
TPM posted:SluggerDad posted:We know of a player who was drafted in the 7th round last year. Didn't sign. Decommitted from a certain D1 school and went the JC route instead, thinking he'd be drafted higher this year. Unfortunately, he slipped to the 28th round. Wonder how often this sort of thing happens?
We have had this discussion, guess this proves its not really a good idea.
Sounds like the player wasnt happy from what they were willing to give him.
If one really wants to sign to play professional ball, money should not be important.
And do you really know the true story. If be had a solid commitment, he wouldnt have decommited.
He definitely had a solid commit to a solid D1 program. Definitely was unhappy with what he was being offered. Believed he could improve his chances after a year in JC. Obviously he, and those advising him, miscalculated. I was just wondering how common this sort of thing is.
Players (in fact most) often feel they are worth more than someone is willing to pay.
SluggerDad posted:I was just wondering how common this sort of thing is.
There's not a large sample to draw from.
The MLB teams are very good at figuring out which top high school profits they can sign, so there are very few high school players taken in the signing rounds who do not sign.
Last year, there were only four high school players drafted in the top ten rounds who didn't sign, so with numbers these small, it's hard to make generalizations.
In the case you're interested in, the player was ranked extremely high (single digits by PG), and very early mock drafts projected him as high as the middle of the first round. So it's easy to see how he may have developed expectations of a bonus 5 or 10 times higher than the slot value of where he was actually picked. A team took a chance on nabbing a top talent at a bargain price, but they didn't close the deal.
Fast forward to 2016. The player went to JUCO and had a solid but not eye-popping freshman year that wasn't enough to push him back to the top few rounds.
So where would you draft him? He already proved he won't sign for 7th round money, so nobody wants to risk cutting their bonus pool by drafting him in the top ten rounds. And once you're in the 11th round, the round doesn't matter as far as the bonus they can offer.
It goes back to what PGStaff said in another thread about how the CBA introduces too many distorting factors that keep teams from drafting players in the order of their perceived talent.
Simple, he made a $200,000 mistake. Not the first time.
"bad advise" for the player. 5,000 players from our Area Code Games provide history of playing the game on the field.
Bob
Consultant posted:Simple, he made a $200,000 mistake. Not the first time.
"bad advise" for the player. 5,000 players from our Area Code Games provide history of playing the game on the field.
Bob
maybe even a bit more than 200K. The original team had over 500K available I read somewhere.
SluggerDad posted:TPM posted:SluggerDad posted:We know of a player who was drafted in the 7th round last year. Didn't sign. Decommitted from a certain D1 school and went the JC route instead, thinking he'd be drafted higher this year. Unfortunately, he slipped to the 28th round. Wonder how often this sort of thing happens?
We have had this discussion, guess this proves its not really a good idea.
Sounds like the player wasnt happy from what they were willing to give him.
If one really wants to sign to play professional ball, money should not be important.
And do you really know the true story. If be had a solid commitment, he wouldnt have decommited.
He definitely had a solid commit to a solid D1 program. Definitely was unhappy with what he was being offered. Believed he could improve his chances after a year in JC. Obviously he, and those advising him, miscalculated. I was just wondering how common this sort of thing is.
FWIW, recent player from our area had an almost opposite experience. Was committed to power D1, drafted in a day three "just in case" round, then decided to decommit and go to JC, then after one good year there, drafted round 5.
