The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study

Interesting data. 

Interesting that there is a Society for American Baseball Research!

Great stuff: Executive Summary:  Get a meaningful degree, your not going to make a living off playing baseball.

@JucoDad posted:

The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study

...achieving 3 years in the MLB. No database of service time is available or used in determining a 3 year career, a single appearance in 3 different years would count as 3 years in the MLB. In my own data I have found that almost across all rounds roughly 30% of all those that make it to the MLB have careers with less than 20 RBI's (position players) and 20 K's (pitchers).

My kid made the cut!

Still at it though; after an injury recovery, year off.

https://www.facebook.com/WC.DragonBaseball/

@TMM_Dad posted:

My kid made the cut!

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	SO	WHIP
2	5	6.75	13	10	0	48.0	39	1.79

Still at it though; after an injury recovery, year off.

https://www.facebook.com/WC.DragonBaseball/

No clue where's he's having lunch, but it sure looks gorgeous! Good luck this season!

Here’s the thing about flat statistical numbers. A player selected in the first round has a very high percentage chance of making the majors. Unless he completely flops in A ball the millions he signed for will get him a shot. A player drafted in the 20th round has a slim chance of making it.

I wonder if the study is moot now because of the changes with the draft and minor league structure?  Players are much more fungible in the minors now because they were a NDFA signed for next to nothing.  And those actually drafted and drafted high probably have a greater probably of making it because they stick around longer.

@RJM posted:

Here’s the thing about flat statistical numbers. A player selected in the first round has a very high percentage chance of making the majors. Unless he completely flops in A ball the millions he signed for will get him a shot. A player drafted in the 20th round has a slim chance of making it.

And that's all about the GM saving face on the money and draft pick used. See: Cito Culver, Yankees. If he was a NDFA, he would have be cut after his first or second year in the minors.  Because he was drafted in the 1st round and given nearly a million dollars, the Yankees watched him fail in the minors for 8 years before cutting him.

@Francis7

It's always been that way; the more invested, the more time they have to show a return. And why not? The bonus money is gone, and the cost to keep them in the lower levels is minimal. Plus, management looks terrible for the pick; it would be worse if they cut them loose early and another team makes it work.

IMO, the changes in the minors were needed; too many teams and the inability to pay and house the players appropriately. At 40 rounds, you've got 1,200 new players coming in (plus international signings and NDFA's). That's 1,200 players to drop to make room. And what's the return on investment for those additional 20 rounds?

After the 20th round, about 3% of the draftees make it to the MLB - 20 rounds yield about 600 ballplayers, and that becomes (600 * 3%) = 18 MLB players per year. It's hard to argue with math. Cut your minor league system in half, improve the conditions for players, and lose 0.6 MLB players per team per year...

Besides, if any of those lost 18 players per year are studs, they'll go to independent ball, get noticed, and have their contracts purchased by the MLB.

A player's father once told me there are only 2 numbers that count in the minors. How big was the signing bonus and are you on the 40 man.

@Francis7 posted:

And that's all about the GM saving face on the money and draft pick used. See: Cito Culver, Yankees. If he was a NDFA, he would have be cut after his first or second year in the minors.  Because he was drafted in the 1st round and given nearly a million dollars, the Yankees watched him fail in the minors for 8 years before cutting him.

Back when the draft was sixty rounds a teammate was taken in the fifties and signed. He hit .337 with gap power in Low A short season. He broke his leg the last weekend. No bonus money, no gamble. He was released before the following spring training.