"The Jury" wonders, Why are they bunting with their 3-hitter?

You have to consider bunts are better at the amateur level because the out is made less often. Especially at third base the difference in athleticism to pro ball is huge, most amateur 3b men that are drafted have to move to First and most good 3b men are former shortstops.

This means in amateur ball the 3b man is much less likely to make the running play to First and are either late or overthrow.  Still not a big fan because often the out is still made but realistically the bunt is probably pretty close to break even in amateur ball than in pro where a bunt with one runner is worth -0.2 runs (1st and second still about -0.05 runs)

Dominik85 posted:

You have to consider bunts are better at the amateur level because the out is made less often. Especially at third base the difference in athleticism to pro ball is huge, most amateur 3b men that are drafted have to move to First and most good 3b men are former shortstops.

This means in amateur ball the 3b man is much less likely to make the running play to First and are either late or overthrow.  Still not a big fan because often the out is still made but realistically the bunt is probably pretty close to break even in amateur ball than in pro where a bunt with one runner is worth -0.2 runs (1st and second still about -0.05 runs)

dom-

Let me re-state, abbreviated:

Situation: Late and close, first and sec. , no outs.  At the plate is your 3-hitter, who has been struggling lately and rolling over to pull side.

Question:  Would you consider the sac bunt?

Why not use the "run and hit" offense? Is the opposing pitcher LH or RH? How fast are your runners? Where is their SS and 2B playing? Is the 2B "cheating" toward 1b? Swing away on 1st strike, bunt on 2nd strike.

Bob

Assuming HS - Yes, with the set of circumstances you list, I would consider it.  But I would also consider... what, exactly is the score situation (you said close ?), how good are my 4 and 5 hitters?, how fast is the 3 hitter (likelihood of double play GO)?, what is pitching matchup for 3, 4 and 5 hitter?, how good is 3 hitter at bunting?, how strong is 3b and where is he playing?, what is my gut at that moment?, what is the field condition (thick grass, fast turf)?, etc.

I like that the bunt here almost assures at least 1 run and gives you two shots at 2 whereas a ground ball double play or K makes that far less likely.  (yes, of course, a hit here is even better but that is only a 1 in 3 chance while a successful bunt is higher odds and if it gets bunted foul, you can go back to hitting away).  I also like that a really good bunt by an athletic and capable #3 hitter can very well result in no outs recorded and either bases loaded or a run scored on a hurried throw that gets away from 1b.  But these other things factor in as well.  Historically, our #3 is best hitter and also a good bunter but not always - I know some programs won't even have their 3,4 hitters practice much bunting so that would factor in as well.

My first thought is maybe the kid can't bunt.  It's amazing to me how many kids can't get a bunt down.....especially by the time they get to college.   I would conservatively say my son's D1 mid-major would have won 6-8 more games over his 4 year career if kids could get a bunt down.  Pop ups to the pitcher/catcher/third baseman were common.   It drove me crazy.  My son was the 4-hole hitter and never bunted once in HS, and didn't bunt until his junior year of college, but went 9-10 in sac bunt attempts over his last 2 years.   I would guess our team average was closer to 70%, maybe worse.   The object of a game is to win.....if getting a bunt down does that, I don't care if it's your 3 hitter or your 9 hitter....but if they can't do it, you don't have that option.   Kind of like the MLB guys who can't or won't hit a ball to the left side to beat the stupid shift....but that's  a rant for another day

I'm with you.  How can guys not bunt?  What teams do not practice bunts in batting practice?  Oh, never mind, I know the answer to that, most college and HS teams don't practice bunts and those that do don't practice it in full speed.  I watched a team work on it recently and the guy throwing was throwing about 25 mph.  I said to the guy standing by me "that works great if you are playing guys that throw 25, but you have to work on it with live speed."  A tool too often left on the shelf and not put in the toolbox.  The teams that can do it, especially in HS, are very successful. 

Even though everything in the scenario is laid out to say "bunt", considering how often the 3-hitter has probably bunted in his life (hardly ever), you're better off with him just swinging away.

Oh, and the term "the jury" is stupid. Juries don't sit there and talk to each other out loud during a trial.