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9 replies

the "myth" of clutch hitting?

T TW344100+ posts
Things have gotten a little stagnant in the Statistics & Scorekeeping pond and I thought I might try to add some off season controversy to the waters. So, here goes.

Bill James, the original Moneyball ghuru, wrote that he could find no significant statistical variance OVER THE LONG HAUL to justify placing the moniker of "clutch hitter" on anyone. [not those exact words, of course]. Yet I constantly hear play by play and color guys, with a man on second or third situation, say things like "John Doe is hitting .240 but he is hitting .265 with runners in scoring position." Like this is somehow proof that this guy is a great "clutch hitter." Of course if they DON'T say anything like that, the poor smuck is probably hitting .240 and .180 with runners in scoring position.

My suggested topic for discussion is do you believe there is such a thing as "clutch hitting"? If you don't, how do you explain these statistical anomalies that the Elias poeple feed the ESPN announcers that seem to make valuable "team" hitters out of guys with career .240 batting averages.

If you do believe there are "clutch hitters" should this runners in scoring position difference in bating average be the only criteria or should we add to the criteria for being a "great clutch hitter" such things as the ability to get on base statistically more often with two outs than less than two outs or to the ability to advance runners TO SCORING POSITION without making an out? Or something else entirely?

What exactly is the value of the getting a hit with runners in scoring position more often than usual player/hitter to his team? Is the player in my example somehow more valuable than the guy that hits .260 regardless of the situation?

TW344
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F 3FingeredGlove1,000+ posts
TW344, you sure ask a lot of questions! I'll only comment on hitters who hit for higher average with men in scoring position. This isn't a proof of clutch hitting; rather it's a consequence of the typical changes in defense. The infield gets pulled in, pitchers are trying for a strike-out, etc. The defense gambles that these approaches (which are not optimal if no one is on base) will prevent a run from scoring. In fact, if a batter's average doesn't improve when runners are in scoring position, then the batter is likely being adversely affected by pressure--and probably has a reputation as a "choker."
FungoFungoHighly Regarded and Beloved Old Timer
Not only does this add to the charisma of baseball, I think it is a reality and is a great example of the mental aspect of hitting and how that mental aspect affects different players. I like the words Big Mac used when he described hitting ---- he said hitting is an act of “Controlled aggression”. “Control and aggression” are two distinct and different mental aspects involved in a hitter’s ability to hit the baseball. Having runners in scoring position puts a hitter in a “must deliver” situation has to influence those emotions and his ability to perform one way or the other. Does having hitters in scoring position increase his “control” or does it increase his “aggression”? I guess that would depend on the hitter. So what makes a hitter a clutch hitter? It simply means his hitting improves because HIS mental approach changes for the better.
Fungo
CM Coach May1,000+ posts
Well put Fungo. Most hitters feel no or less pressure to produce when no one is on or early in a game. The same could be said when their team is up big in a game or down big in a game. With risp, especially in a tight game or late in the game hitters understand the importance of producing right now. Some feel the pressure to produce and tighten up and repeatedly fail to produce while others increase their focus and seem to always deliver. I think there is a big difference in a ML season as far as this goes and the mind set of a ML player vs a HS player or even a college player. ML players are put in these situations several times over the course of a 162 game season. College players much less times and HS players even less. When you play say 24 games in a HS season the importance to produce more often adds to the pressure to produce.I do believe in clutch hitters. I do believe there are guys that thrive in those situations because they want to be there and they get even more focused and they are able to controll their emotions at the plate. While others allow those emotions to controll them which in turn does not allow for success. JMO
C Coachric1,000+ posts
Thank you Coach May and Fungo. The mental aspect and particularly Cluth Hitting are some of the great Intangibles of the game. Doing the right thing at the right time is an intangible. While the stat guru's can come up with a stat like GW Hits or RISP, intangibles are usually something seen and done, not reported on a score book.
Midlo DadMidlo Dad10,000+ posts
I do believe there are true clutch hitters, and Ortiz is definitely one of the best.

BUT ...

Some of the stats they cook up are just plain rigged. Think about these:

Average with runners in scoring position: If you hit a routine fly without a man on third, it counts against your average. If you hit that same fly with a man on third and less than 2 outs, it's a sac fly. This means that in the overall statistical sample, you count ALL your fly outs, while in the statistical sample limited to scoring position situations, sac flies are a disproportionate share of the plate appearances. Therefore a batter who hits exactly the same way in both situations will have a somewhat higher average with runners in scoring position.

This adds to the game situation effect noted above. I would therefore agree that someone whose average DOESN'T improve with runners in scoring position may be choking a bit.

How about this bogus stat -- not advanced as a measure of clutch hitting but another example of bogus stats: How a guy hits with two strikes as opposed to less than two strikes, or how he hits on the first pitch, etc.

Well, with two strikes he sometimes strikes out! With less than two, he never strikes out on that pitch!

Averages calculated in less than 2 strikes situations are always increased because K's are removed from the statistical sample. Conversely, averages calculated for 2-strike situations include ALL the K's a batter has. Of course the first turns out higher and the second turns out low. Which tells you absolutely nothing about how good a batter he is or how good the pitcher is or anything. It is merely a statistical result of the rules of the game!
N NHFundamentalsDad100+ posts
One cannot determine if there is or is not such a thing a clutch hitting if you cannot define it.

To me, a clutch hitter performs when the game is on the line.

Now the game is not on the line in the first inning with 2 outs and runners on second and third. It is not on the line in the bottom of the 8th inning with 2 runners in scoring position and 2 outs and your team is up by 6 runs. Getting a hit in these situations skews the numbers that you have been talking about.

Now, down a run with runners on 2nd & 3rd in the bottom of the 8th with 2 outs IS a clutch hitting situation.

Clutch hitting does exist and there certainly are clutch hitters. I beleive becuase we cannot fully define what all clutch hitting situations are, we cannot come up with a true statistic for it.

It falls under the old category of "I know it when I see it".
H HaverDad500+ posts
Ive long felt a clutch hitter is a very skilled player, who underachieves, lacking concentration, over the grueling 162 game season, but displays heightened focus at crunch-time, not getting better, simply realizing potential:

i.e. Barry Bonds' cousin, one R. Jackson:

Regular Season career average: .262
(2800+games)

World Series average: .357
(27games)
Last edited by HaverDad

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