Understanding college rosters

"Roster bingo" is tricky. The way you're looking at it does paint some of the picture but not the entire picture.  Researching potential needs for incoming classes is a good first step, but you never know what the coach's priorities are. You also never know what the coach thinks of the current guys he has. Maybe there's 3 catchers on the roster, but he's not satisfied with those three and is looking for a new one. Maybe there's 1 catcher on the roster but they're converting a backup SS to be a catcher the next year and not looking for an incoming freshman. Injuries, drafts, cuts, all of that also impacts the "needs" in a particular class. It's hard to tell a teams needs without hearing it from the source, but I think your approach is a good first step. 

smokeminside posted:

I'm trying to refine my understanding of rosters and how to read them "correctly."  I'm doing this for the purpose of helping my kid cast a wide net, but in the right pools.

When I was helping 2017 look for a fit, we studied rosters and looked for players at his position who a) were playing a lot; and b) were graduating from college the same year he was graduating.  He ended up at a school where two outfielders who have been multi-year starters will be graduating this year.  Theoretically, at least, those spots will be "open" and he can compete for a starting spot right away.

Is that the right way to "use" a roster?  Or, are there other things that are important to look for?

It is in my opinion, but TPM would probably say you are obsessing about it. :-)

There's no way to account for position switches and incoming JuCo players. If you were a top 50 recruit would you expect to show up at college expecting to start only to find out a soph who has never played your position is being moved there? Neither did the top 50 recruit. As for JuCo recruits you can only look at the program's history of recruiting them. But you won't know what position they play.

You will soon notice College Coaches following the Cubs formula. Searching for players who can play several positions on the field. When I coached at SSU, each year I developed 2-3 switch hitters.

75% of the opposing pitchers are right handed and the left handed hitter is valuable.

Looking at the current roster does not tell you or your son my changes planned for the next year and does not tell you his plan to scout the California J.C. tournament and the alumni recommendations of "unhappy" Division 1 players who desire a change.  Also the "injury red shirt".

Reading the team roster is like reading the "racing form".

Bob

If you look into things that deep, you're going to drive yourself crazy.  If your son is good enough to get an offer that he likes at the school he likes, take it.  The rest will work itself out one way or the other.  If you're talking D1, it's a complete crapshoot.  Consider my son's team.  His incoming freshman class had 5 HS shortstops and and 2 OF.  One OF is starting in RF, the other doesn't play.  My son (all state SS) is a starting pitcher.  One of the shortstops started at 2B as a freshman, one at SS and one started today in LF.  The "stud" SS that they had got kicked out of school after his sophomore year.  They brought in a juco catcher that is starting now. 

I guess the point is....if you would have looked at this team two years ago when my son was a HS senior, it would look nothing like what took the field today.

Another D1 in Ohio....last year's starting catcher is starting this weekend at SS....and they have JUCO transfers starting at 1B and 2B. 

Smoke,

I would say it is far more art than science.  Others bring up some great variables.  It needs to be just another of many data points, a source for questions to the coaches when the opportunity arises.  You can get some idea of whether a school relies heavily on JC transfers and drop downs.  You can see how many upperclassmen typically make their way thru the program.  Maybe see how many coaches they have and what their backgrounds are - one indicator of how much the school supports the program and how much development might be expected.  How big are their rosters and what are the player bio's of the ones who actually play?  How many get innings in your target position?  Where, geographically, do they recruit from?  Is there a pattern with player size in a position?  For us, for example, if all eight OF's were 6'1" +, that told us the coaches perhaps leaned even more toward big OF's than most.  What were the offensive stats of starting position players?  Was there a definitive slant toward power or speed? 

As far as players in your position, the only concrete take away is if there are underclassmen who performed very well the prior year.  Then, you know it may be a tough nut to crack for that starting spot first year.  Aside from that, the coaching staff will constantly be looking to upgrade all positions year-to-year so it is a bit of a futile exercise in that regard.

TPM would say this is over the top and she's right.  I will fully admit, once I started getting into roster assessment, it became a hobby and most often, had little to do with my son's or my players' specific needs.  But it does come in handy when I have players looking to figure things out.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

If you look into things that deep, you're going to drive yourself crazy.  If your son is good enough to get an offer that he likes at the school he likes, take it.  The rest will work itself out one way or the other.  If you're talking D1, it's a complete crapshoot.  Consider my son's team.  His incoming freshman class had 5 HS shortstops and and 2 OF.  One OF is starting in RF, the other doesn't play.  My son (all state SS) is a starting pitcher.  One of the shortstops started at 2B as a freshman, one at SS and one started today in LF.  The "stud" SS that they had got kicked out of school after his sophomore year.  They brought in a juco catcher that is starting now. 

I guess the point is....if you would have looked at this team two years ago when my son was a HS senior, it would look nothing like what took the field today.

Another D1 in Ohio....last year's starting catcher is starting this weekend at SS....and they have JUCO transfers starting at 1B and 2B. 

This.

Gonna take a step back and let SANDIEGOREALIST help people figure it all out.

When I looked at rosters, I looked at what I called churn. How many players stayed with the program , 1, 2, 3, 4 years. I was looking for schools that had a large percentage of players stay for 3 or 4 years. If there wer a lot of 1 or 2 and done, I found it concerning. I wanted my son to go to a school where players stayed for 4 years. 

I was not overly concerned about how many pittchers or outfielders were on the team, and since he was probably going to be a po, while I was interested in roster size it was not a big deal.

My son did not get the playing time we expected. Coach Mott when we met said he would get the opportunity to possibly start some week day games (non conference ), and some relief innings for the weekends. However due to some unfortunate injuries, to teammates and some true blessings, he did well in the fall, and very early in in the spring, he became a weekend starter. He was new commer of the year in his conference freshman year and was the one or two starter all four years. 

Did my son earn that, yes. But much of his opportunities came about due to injuries to seniors. If they were not injured or shut down at the begining of the year he may not have gotten the opportunity. 

Nothing on the rosters could have prepared us for that.

Your son was physically and mentally prepared when opportunity knocked. Had he screwed up the first opportunity his college experience might have been completely different.

TPM posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

If you look into things that deep, you're going to drive yourself crazy.  If your son is good enough to get an offer that he likes at the school he likes, take it.  The rest will work itself out one way or the other.  If you're talking D1, it's a complete crapshoot.  Consider my son's team.  His incoming freshman class had 5 HS shortstops and and 2 OF.  One OF is starting in RF, the other doesn't play.  My son (all state SS) is a starting pitcher.  One of the shortstops started at 2B as a freshman, one at SS and one started today in LF.  The "stud" SS that they had got kicked out of school after his sophomore year.  They brought in a juco catcher that is starting now. 

I guess the point is....if you would have looked at this team two years ago when my son was a HS senior, it would look nothing like what took the field today.

Another D1 in Ohio....last year's starting catcher is starting this weekend at SS....and they have JUCO transfers starting at 1B and 2B. 

This.

Gonna take a step back and let SANDIEGOREALIST help people figure it all out.

Wow, I don't know what to say! Thanks? 

Thanks RJM, he was. And your right. We did not go on the Florida trip his freshman year, because we just did not expect him to play much. A mistake I soon regretted. 

These comments have been really helpful.  One takeaway for me is if my kid really wants to attend a school he should go ahead and initiate contact with that school regardless of what roster needs they may seem to have. 

Thanks, everyone. 

I looked at rosters after he narrowed down the schools. For me it only ruled out one school. But he had already ruled them out when we started discussing it.

Every situation is different. We looked at the roster sizes and people who have been with the team all four years. As others have mentioned, positions are hard to read. I think the starting CF who graduated from son's school two years ago was always listed as IF on roster.  We also looked at how many STEM majors were on the roster, sensing that would be an area of study son would enter. Among other things that sold son on program was looking at HC's bio which gave a strong inclination for speedy recruits. 

The best thing you can do, is go to see the teams actually play a game. Have a roster sheet handy to see stats, innings, height, weight, where person is from, etc.  One game we went to featured two of his top 5 teams he was considering. When he went to additional games in the conference where he would land, the light bulb went off for him--"I can play at this level."

I'm not sure there's any electricity at our house.

If you want to find out a lot about a program go to a game. Ask a couple of parents, "How did your son end up here?" By the time they're done you will know about that school, the academic level required, the other schools he was recruited by, which schools they didn't like and why and what showcases to attend. 

I got "go where they love you" from asking a NC State parent of a starting freshman if UNC recruited his son. He said "UNC showed interest, NCSU showed love. If you want to get on the field go where they love you."

Thanks, RJM.  Your comment made me realize that I actually could do that, after all.  Hawaii is in a good mid-major conference and several teams a year besides conference foes play here.  They always bring an entourage, so it would be easy enough to identify parents, and strike up a conversation about their kids' experience.

Also, meant to add watched NC State's game against Hawaii last night, with my sons' varsity.  Got to hang out by the NC State bullpen for the whole game.    One kid said, "so that's what 95 looks like."

So, I think you have to look at it through a couple different lenses.  My son was focused on academic schools.  So, we'd look through the rosters to see where the players came from public or private schools (some schools have a private high school disposition), academic accomplishments (ie...national honor society), major (ie engineering), graduation year then all the baseball stuff (innings pitched).  We'd examine the stat sheet for who are the four starting pitchers, long relief, setup guys and closer and all of their specific background info.  Then we'd get out to see the team or a team in the conference play.  This gave us an idea of the level involved and where my son thought his baseball or academic talent could provide leverage.  At the end of the day, you are looking for a fit.  It took us 18 months to find the right fit.   This is doing your due diligence, and still this is not a 100% guarantee. 

Looking through the rosters gives you a lot of information that is pertinent to how others got on that roster, and their likelihood to remain on that roster.  But, I think it is important to know what you are looking for, and how it all applies.   At the end of the day, there are typically 35 rostered positions.  You can narrow that down quickly by looking at who gets the ball, who is playing the field and getting ABs.  That 35 quickly turned to 18 or so players that find the field in a particular season.  We focused on them.  JMO.

Here's a nugget I pulled out of the Tuft's post.  Sometimes you just might not get your shot.  The guys in front of you are getting it done.  Maybe add on a couple of "non-baseball" related "perceived" negatives and you never find the field.  Or upperclassman protecting teammates from the incoming class of players.  If you have the baseball skill for the shot at a highly competitive program, don't forget you still have to manage the intangibles.  Also more than likely EVERY recruit has a solid skill set.

fenwaysouth posted:

So, I think you have to look at it through a couple different lenses.  My son was focused on academic schools.  So, we'd look through the rosters to see where the players came from public or private schools (some schools have a private high school disposition), academic accomplishments (ie...national honor society), major (ie engineering), graduation year then all the baseball stuff (innings pitched).  We'd examine the stat sheet for who are the four starting pitchers, long relief, setup guys and closer and all of their specific background info.  Then we'd get out to see the team or a team in the conference play.  This gave us an idea of the level involved and where my son thought his baseball or academic talent could provide leverage.  At the end of the day, you are looking for a fit.  It took us 18 months to find the right fit.   This is doing your due diligence, and still this is not a 100% guarantee. 

Looking through the rosters gives you a lot of information that is pertinent to how others got on that roster, and their likelihood to remain on that roster.  But, I think it is important to know what you are looking for, and how it all applies.   At the end of the day, there are typically 35 rostered positions.  You can narrow that down quickly by looking at who gets the ball, who is playing the field and getting ABs.  That 35 quickly turned to 18 or so players that find the field in a particular season.  We focused on them.  JMO.

Whoo that sounds like work! Ain't nobody said it was easy.
:')