Value of the Stolen Base?

I guess that really depends on the coaches philosophy. Our coach plays very agressively on the bases and is willing to give up the occasional out.

He wants to make them make the play. The pitcher has to deliver, the catcher has to catch, pop and make a good throw, the fielder has to catch the ball and make a good tag. Lot's of places where things can go wrong.

That being said, last year in the state sectional, first two runners get caught trying to steal 2nd, lose the game 4-2. If we don't try those steals could it have been a big inning for us? We will never know. But the agressive style won more games for us then lost.

Again depends on the coaches philosophy

Play every game as if it were your last

I have heard the 75% rule of thumb for as long as I can remember.

My question is this .... why is it then considered good if a catcher throws out 50% of those attempting to steal?

Bob,
"Doing nothing is still a course of action"

Bob

I am with you--the numbers don't match

One thing about speed --it can make the opponents leery of every player who gets on base--- even if you get thrown out they begin looking for it and this can open up holes in the defense for the batter

TRhit

I once had a team steal 230 bases. It is being scrutinezed now by the IHSA for induction into the state records. Our 6'5" 240 lbs firstbaseman stole 18. We had 4 with 40 or more. That team wasn't supposed to be very good according to some "experts." They won 25 games. Had we not run, we would not have won 10. It isn't just the stolen base. It is the pressure in every other facet of the game. I could elaborate more but basebal people such as the posters on this site understand all of the other implications. Run! Run every chance you get. When you get thrown out, realize that the odds are now greater that you will be successful the next time. RUN!

"There comes a time when you have to stop dreaming of the man you want to be and start being the man you have become." Bruce Springsteen

Just finished reading "Money Ball". Very interesting take on stealing bases in the Pros by Billie Bean GM of the Oakland A's. At the Major League level, where the players are more likely to make the plays, Billie Bean believes that you don't steal unless it is almost a sure thing. His philosphy is that you only get 3 outs an inning and 27 per regulation game, so an out is too precious to risk with a steal (unless you are almost certain it will be successful) when the next batter may get a PB/WP, E, D3S, HBP, BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, or H to move the runner over.

Now his take on the SAC bunt is even more extreme. Basically you don't as statistics have shown the SAC bunt is a waste of an out except in special situations! In the book they told about the A's Manager asking one of his players why he bunted a player over when he, the Manager, had not called for it and then had the player advise the press that the player had done that on his own so Billie Bean wouldn't jump the Manager.

An interesting book that presents an interesting philosphy about managing and building a team that appears to be slowly spreading to a few of the other MLB teams.

I love the SB. It keeps pressure on the defense.

Being an aggresive pre HS coach, it has always been my feeling that my players are going to steal bases on every opportunity we are given. Atleast until the other team shows us that we can't.
It's a part of the learning curve. sometimes you make it sometimes you don't, but the players don't learn to read the picthers if there not given the chance.
The outcome becomes more critical when they get older and like it has been said a lot of things can happen.

Bob,
If you have to steal 3 out of 4 (75%) to be successful and the catcher throws out 2 out of 4 (50%) then you are only stealing 2 out of 4 and your running game isn't successful and the catcher and pitcher are doing a good job. As the catcher's success rate drops below 50% then the running game is quickly moving toward being successful. According to these estimates a catcher with a 30% success rate would be doing an adequate job although I think the aggressive play would pay off well enough in other ways in that case.

Lets not referr to it as the stolen base lets referr to it as the running game. Teams that play station to station at the high school level ( and thats what Im going to be talking about here ), limit themselves needlessly. By attempting to steal bases it is just not about stealing that particular base. Its about putting pressure on the defense throughout the game. Its making the pitcher hold runners and concentrate on more than just throwing to spots. Its putting pressure on the middle infield and third baseman. Its forcing the ist baseman to hold the runner longer and maybe not getting a good break into posisiton after the pitch. It puts pressure on the catcher and may cause him to put less emphasis on his receiving etc. It puts pressure on the opposing coaching staff. You are also assumeing that everytime you steal the ball is not hit. How many double plays do you stay out of over the course of a season by being aggressive. Bunt and steal, hit and run etc. How many times does the hitter get a fastball over the plate that he can drive because the coach did not want to throw off speed because he was afraid the runner was going? The positives are countless. Yes every once in a while you will get thrown out. But the positives of the running game far out weigh the negatives.

Coach May,

I agree 100% with your post. I preach aggressive baserunning. The pressure on the defense especially the age I coach 13/14 will gain you 2-3 runs a game.

Pitchers worry about the runners as opposed to the batter, middle infielders cheat to the center of the field opening up holes for the batter and fastballs are thrown more often for my hitter.

I tell my runners if they are not taking a big enough lead to draw a throw at 1st then they don't have a lead.

More things happen wrong for the defense on a pick-off play than happen right. I want the pitcher throwing pickoff's.

Its kinda like Vince Lombardi's attitude to the forward pass.

I had a coach last week ask to schedule a practice game with us so he could show his defense what a pressure offense feels like. I took it as a compliment.

Seadog

The choices we make dictate the lives we lead.

It really depends on the skill levels involved. We expect mlb to make the plays and there are only a few players that can really put much pressure on a defense.

At the HS level we expect them to make the plays but they often don't and the running game can put some real pressure on the defense.

At lower levels the running game puts pressure on all but the most skilled and disciplined defenses.

I told my kids (13 and under) that it was their job to get to third ( with the ultimate goal of reaching home). There were times that I'd put the woa-up sign on, but other than that, they always had the green light!

Run till they put you out seemed reasonable to me. Besides, the running game, i.e. smallball, makes for a fun game to watch!

"You should enter a ballpark the way you enter a church." Bill -Spaceman- Lee

CADad

Thank you...I think you've addressed the isue about skill level and base stealing perfectly.
At the higher levels you are limited based on the phoilosphy of your club. What value does your club put on the stolen base vs. the out??What is the benefit and what is the cost??

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