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Just figured I would share a situation my son recently went through and was hoping if anyone could relate.  

3 weekends ago,  son threw a bullpen for his college coach.  Sat 81-82 Topped 84.  Changeup at 70, Slider at 78.

Last weekend, son threw 4 innings in a tournament for a graduate team and was nothing like the kid he was in the bullpen.  Son MIGHT have been throwing 75, and couldn't locate his offspeed for strikes.   Was throwing absolute meat lunch and got crushed.  Has anyone ever experienced anything like this??? Son said some arm didnt hurt at all just for some reason didn't have any velocity whatsoever.  

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PitcherOnlyDad posted:

Just figured I would share a situation my son recently went through and was hoping if anyone could relate.  

3 weekends ago,  son threw a bullpen for his college coach.  Sat 81-82 Topped 84.  Changeup at 70, Slider at 78.

Last weekend, son threw 4 innings in a tournament for a graduate team and was nothing like the kid he was in the bullpen.  Son MIGHT have been throwing 75, and couldn't locate his offspeed for strikes.   Was throwing absolute meat lunch and got crushed.  Has anyone ever experienced anything like this??? Son said some arm didnt hurt at all just for some reason didn't have any velocity whatsoever.  

If he is really off 7-8 mph from his usual velocity, that seems weird, absent an injury. OTOH, I would be hesitant to draw any conclusions without having actual velocity readings in the tournament. In other words, are you sure he was 74-75 in the tournament?

Based on your comment that he MIGHT have been throwing 75, it sounds like he was not gunned on that day.  If so, he may well have been throwing faster than you think and still got crushed.  It happens.

There could me any number of possible explanations: random fluctuation; injury; fatigue; recent weightlifting; too little sleep; etc.   I would not be concerned based on a one time aberration.  

2019Dad posted:
PitcherOnlyDad posted:

Just figured I would share a situation my son recently went through and was hoping if anyone could relate.  

3 weekends ago,  son threw a bullpen for his college coach.  Sat 81-82 Topped 84.  Changeup at 70, Slider at 78.

Last weekend, son threw 4 innings in a tournament for a graduate team and was nothing like the kid he was in the bullpen.  Son MIGHT have been throwing 75, and couldn't locate his offspeed for strikes.   Was throwing absolute meat lunch and got crushed.  Has anyone ever experienced anything like this??? Son said some arm didnt hurt at all just for some reason didn't have any velocity whatsoever.  

If he is really off 7-8 mph from his usual velocity, that seems weird, absent an injury. OTOH, I would be hesitant to draw any conclusions without having actual velocity readings in the tournament. In other words, are you sure he was 74-75 in the tournament?

Honestly, I am pretty good at guessing what a pitcher was throwing.  He may have hit 76 or so but he not even high 70's.  Opposing batters and son himself all said the same thing.  He was throwing BP and he usually throws with high intent.  His arm began to hurt in the last inning but the first three he said he felt fine.  Just for some reason had no velocity whatsoever.  No, there was not a gun present at the tournament.  Thanks for the replies.  I am honestly just absolutely bewildered about this.  His confidence really took a hit and kinda worried as well.  

My was 87-90 all spring in college.  87-89 in his appearances so far this summer, with limited throwing on his off days (not like college).  Threw Monday night....gave up 3 hits and a run in 4 batters....83-85.  Said his arm felt great....just velo wasn't there.  My opinion was that he'd sat too long between outings...with no work in between.  He threw some long toss last night...hoping to be ready for tomorrow's start.

I see fastball spreads like that all the time.  I have seen showcases have readings that range 6-7 mph for a pitcher's fastball in games. I have gunned high school guys sitting low to mid 70's, and the same arms are getting clocked 80 at showcase events.  Heck, Tim Lincecum was sitting 90-91 at his recent "showcase" but last night in Anaheim he was sitting 86-87 with his fastball.   I don't think any of these guys are injured.

10 mph spreads are not normal, and when you see them in showcase listings (like PGs) they're very often wrong. Real (that is, not bad data driven) 6-7 mph spreads aren't very common.

Also, guys going up in velocity from one event to another, especially with any significant intervening time, might just be getting better or fixing some mechanical flaw. Guys going down a legit 10 mph (and I'd really want to verify OPs velocities with a gun before I considered them legit for these purposes), almost always have something physically wrong.

I always thought a pitcher's FB velo fell withing a small range of about 2-3 mph.  When I gun myself throwing I sit at the same number give or take 1-2 mph. But I see these big ranges on the showcase sights.  I also gun players myself and then they go to an event 2 weeks later and they are 6-7 mph higher.  Same gun being used.  I have also seen these same variances, in the same month, by the same showcase, for the same exact player.  Just at two different events.  Maybe it is the data.  I take velocity readings with a grain of salt unless I am there taking it myself.  I'm sure pro and college scouts must personally verify anything posted online.

Last edited by Hammer823

I only pay any attention to PG data, since those are the only ones my son attends/attended that record this stuff, but as you dig down there it's pretty obvious that a lot of the peak numbers are bad data.

As an example, http://www.perfectgame.org/Pla...vents.aspx?ID=345971.
All of this kids pitching numbers follow a pretty reasonable progression with two outliers, in June of '14 and again in March of '15.  In his particular case, I don't know what's up with the 6/14 series, but the 3/15 game isn't actually him, it's another kid from the same HS where the data got recorded wrong.

If I'm "scouting" this kid from my sofa, I'm ignoring the outliers because it seems clear that the rest of the numbers paint the picture, but it's a potential problem for guys with only 1-2 data points (which is why I assume no one signs guys based on just 1-2 data points that haven't been personally verified).

I've got cases of my son's teammates where there's no way the above type of mistake (wrong player) was the issue, but where there are still spurious peak numbers reported.  One lefty whose peak is listed as 83, but he always works 75-78, for example. In my experience, this sort of bad data exists for around half of the pitchers I personally know.  Again, it's not really a problem if you're ignoring outliers for guys with lots of data points (which is the only sane thing to do, in my opinion). I've always assumed that this was the occasional batted ball exit velocity getting recorded with the pitching velocities, but that's just a guess.

PGs newly available Trackman data would appear to go a long way towards fixing that latter problem. It's detailed pitch-by-pitch, so it'd be easy to see one pitch weirdness if it exists. It appears to mis-classify pitches on occasion, so you'lee see a guy with an 85mph fastball follow that up with a 75mph fastball, but if you look at the totality of the pitches in a game it becomes clear that the 75mph pitch isn't actually a fastball. Unfortunately, at least at LakePoint, the Trackman data seems to suffer a lot from the first problem right now, getting pitches assigned to the wrong pitcher.  My son's limited data set makes him an ambidextrous pitcher who goes upper 60s to low 80s from the right side and low to mid 70s from the left and with 4 distinctive arm slots.  If only, he says.  :-)  That's probably an artifact of growing pains implementing the system, possibly combined with less attention to detail for players who aren't on stud-filled teams, if I'm guessing.

Trackman still needs humans to do the substitutions correctly.  Unless they put micro-chips on the kids.  My son pitched 6 innings, came out of the game.  Next pitcher was about 12 mph slower, but under my son's name. Looked like my son threw 120 pitches.  No big deal, but illustrates how much data scrubbing needs to happen before releasing the data to scouts/public.

I'm sure Gamechanger is the official pitch count source for Pitch Smart guidelines for PG.

 

Go44dad posted:

Trackman still needs humans to do the substitutions correctly.  Unless they put micro-chips on the kids.  My son pitched 6 innings, came out of the game.  Next pitcher was about 12 mph slower, but under my son's name. Looked like my son threw 120 pitches.  No big deal, but illustrates how much data scrubbing needs to happen before releasing the data to scouts/public.

I'm sure Gamechanger is the official pitch count source for Pitch Smart guidelines for PG.

 

Just want to add TRACKMAN IS SOOO COOOL! 

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