Velocity Projection

I would say that if he was to increase naturally... that would be a good guess. There are a number of factors that can go into the equation.. I feel the biggest factor is how efficient his mechanics are. This will really determine how much growth is left. If he has solid mechinics, I would say that your guess is accurate, but if his mechanics aren't really that good and he is throwing 82, then your talking a potential 5-8 mph with really improved mechanics... When I was 16 I topped at 84, and sat around 80-82... I went to see a pitching coach by the name of Bill Thurston and he absoulutley dissected my mechanics.. After meeting with him I found my mechanics were really inefficient, so i spent the next two years fixing them... By the time I was 18 almost 19 I was able to get up into the 90's... I never expected it, but it was all do to mechanics.. So like i said there are a number of factors in determining velocity projection.. I bet no one projected me throwing as hard as I did by the time I was 18, so you never know... Size wise I was about the same as your son, I was roughly 6'2" 180... Now Im 6'4" 230... allright that's my 2 cents...I'll ttyl...

Thanks.I would say his mechanics are pretty solid.Just now starting to develop some muscle definition and is on the whey ptotien and so forth. he has had some tendonitis issues which hopefully will be resolved with some added strength. Any ideas here would also be appreciated.

Do a find of "average velocity increase" and you'll see a thread I started on that subject not too long ago. The top players gained about 5.71 MPH (on average) between the years of their sophomore and junior seasons. Average was about 3.98? (I'd have to reread the post). I'd guess 85 would be a good benchmark next year, but like many have said, there are a lot of factors involved.

scissorbill-Welcome to the HSBBW. You will find a wealth of the most valuable information here. I would suggest meeting with a pitching instructor and let him help you out. Now is the perfect time to do this. You have a couple right in your own backyard. Pat Clements gives lessons and is very good and Jon Macalutes gives them as well. We know both and they are both knowledgeable and very nice too! They might have some suggestions for you. Are you PV or Chico High? My husband is a CHS grad.

To answer your question, no. There is not a reliable way to project the velocity of any individual player.

All he can do is to work on his mechanics, conditioning and strength. What will come will come.

quote:

Originally posted by Texan:
To answer your question, no. There is not a reliable way to project the velocity of any individual player. All he can do is to work on his mechanics, conditioning and strength. What will come will come.

I agree.

There are so many variables involved, such as the quality of one's mechanics and makeup of one's muscles, that it's pretty much impossible.

quote:

Originally posted by scissorbill:
Thanks.I would say his mechanics are pretty solid.Just now starting to develop some muscle definition and is on the whey ptotien and so forth. he has had some tendonitis issues which hopefully will be resolved with some added strength. Any ideas here would also be appreciated.

Do you have a video of him throwing?

This will help us get a sense of his mechanics and might point to the root cause of his problems with tendonitis.

Good point, tpg. Tendonitis is most likely due to improper mechanics or overuse, although other causes are possible.

Texan is right. You can't predict increases in velocity accurately. On average I'd say if he's done growing he's got about 5 mph left to increase but why would you accept that knowing that some people do better?

See a sports medicine doctor familiar with pitchers about the tendonitis. Serious problems are sometimes initially diagnosed as tendonitis.

Sissorbill,

Tough call there.
A few believe a linear jump (3-4 mph) every year from age 8 to age 16. What happens after that is dependent upon many factors, some controlled by genes, the majority controlled by the individual himself.

I would anticipate maybe another jump up
between 16-18, and another at 20-22, while peaking at 28-29 y/o (for lefties) (27-28 for righties) and is dependant upon perfect and repeatable mechanics, increasing core S&C,
flexibility in the deacceleration flexars, nutrition, and throwing every day (or every other day), and if injury occurs, the availability of a cut specialists (Andrews etc), and a nearby and accessible rehab guy (Cut guys task is 'easy', PT is the hard part). And of course, no guarantees.

Bottom Line: Teaching the youngster how to pitch, will pay more dividends. However a lefty blessed with a 90+ FB, knows how, and a 12 year pro career is Christmas morn every month.

Keep in touch.

Much depends on whether he is 16 and one day or 16 and 364 days. Expect a big speed increase around age 16 (5-7 mph is common) but virtually nothing after age 17, maybe 1-2 mph by graduation... if healthy.

I certainly wouldn't expect velocity increases after age 20. Such stats don't include the 98% of pitchers who wash out before then.

Perfect Game has stated that pitchers approach max velocity around age 17 and they have stats on thousands of kids. And even their records are biased toward pitchers who feel they've gotten faster. No one pays for a PG showcase to show off their injured arm

quote:

Much depends on whether he is 16 and one day or 16 and 364 days. Expect a big speed increase around age 16 (5-7 mph is common) but virtually nothing after age 17, maybe 1-2 mph by graduation... if healthy.

I certainly wouldn't expect velocity increases after age 20. Such stats don't include the 98% of pitchers who wash out before then.

Perfect Game has stated that pitchers approach max velocity around age 17 and they have stats on thousands of kids.

Micdsguy,

I’m sure you heard that somewhere, but it definitely wasn’t from yours truly. If pitchers reached max velocity at 17 it would take a lot of the projection (guess work) out of scouting.

It may be true that some pitchers reach max velocity at a young age, but there are many more who reach peak velocity much later. In my experience, we’ve seen pitchers reach their top velocity at many different ages. Some in high school, but more in college or professional baseball. At 17 my own son was throwing around 84 tops. He continued to gain velocity up until around 24. He gained 14 mph (top velocity) between 17 and 24.

A large percentage of pitchers gain velocity during their college years. There is no certain formula, but sometimes there are clues as to why some young pitchers will end up throwing with a lot more velocity as they get older.

If someone who works for us said 17 was the age, that’s their opinion. It certainly is not my opinion. If I had to guess, I’d say a pitcher will reach his maximum velocity (unless injury gets in the way) at whatever age he becomes physically mature and reaches his highest level of mechanics, conditioning and strength. For some that might be 17-18, for others it could be in their mid to late 20s. Overall I’d guess 22-23 to be the most common age.

I’m not complaining about what you posted, just trying to give my honest opinion on the subject.

misdsguy, To answer your question he will turn 17 in late March 07. Was gunned in August 06 then closer to 16. Any specific exercices to strengthen forearm elbow area where he has had tendonitis problems would be appreciated. Hopefully he can strengthen to prevent this from re occurring.

quote:

I’m sure you heard that somewhere, but it definitely wans’t from yours truly. If pitchers reached max velocity at 17 it would take a lot of the projection (guess work) out of scouting.

As the dad of three kids around that age bracket, I'd certainly like to think they'd continue to gain speed after 17 and through college into the Pros (LOL!). I WANT TO BE WRONG. That's why I'm pretty sure my quotes are accurate. Let me see if I can dig up the source which was on this board a year or two ago.

The source did say that pitchers CAN add speed after 17 but generally that occurs where the pitcher grows several inches which is rare after 17.

I've gunned dozens of 16-17-18 year old pitchers and I've only found one who gained substantial speed during his final year in HS.

Billy Wagner is a perfect example.
Plus, he is a lefty.

micdsguy,

We also gun many pitchers and see their development. I can honestly say I've seen many many caees where pitchers have increased their velocity "a lot" at 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, etc.

At the same time, we have seen pitchers go downhill after 16-17 years old.

quote:

Let me see if I can dig up the source which was on this board a year or two ago.

I can't find it after trying for about 15 minutes. There was a guy associated with PG who often participated in a long-running thread about projecting ultimate speed based on age and height. He used info that PG gained over the years. Haven't other PG people posted on HSBBW in the past few years?

I'd like to hear from college and pro pitching experts on how much speed a hard-working healthy pitcher can reasonably expect to gain after HS.

micdsguy,

There could have been someone else associated with PG who posted that. Though, I think I’m usually the only one that posts here. There are some people who study the statistics we compile. Maybe they posted that!

At any rate, fairly certain that it wasn’t me who claimed that. However, there are many young pitchers who do not improve after the age of 17. In fact, it could even be most of them if you take into account those who no longer pitch after high school. I would expect most college and pro pitchers to continue to improve in all ways including velocity after high school.

I hope you understand… I respect your thoughts and appreciate you mentioning us as some kind of authority. Just kind of a stickler when it comes to being as accurate as possible when stating my beliefs. Even if they are completely wrong! Which is the case sometimes.

micdsguy,

Perhaps you're thinking of the compilation done by CADad in late 2004. 15-17 yrs old
and Further results
I think there was also some activity in Pre-HS forum but it appears that most of the posts between September and December 2004 are missing from that forum-- or I just don't know how to look.
I think that CADad basically asked people in this forum to submit their sons' pitching speeds, and he then compiled the data. He states that the data have less validity at the edges of the age range.
PGstaff did post to the second thread, primarily to point out that his experience showed that 17 year old pitchers frequently gain speed significantly. I really don't think any PG data was included.

I find the data interesting, and it may be the best data available. On the other hand, necessarily the sampling is uneven, both in the protocol for measuring and in the selected population.

Getting close:
Don't know what CADad meant by "inputs."

quote:

Posted December 14, 2004 03:25 PM

After looking at the inputs several different ways the way the data seemed to best fit reality was to put both height and velocity into a third order equation and then use that to plot velocity vs. height for given ages. If someone wants to I can send them an image of the plot and they can upload it and send me the url and I'll then add it to this post.

Please be aware that this data reflects a fairly elite pitcher. For example a 5'10" just turned 13yo is predicted to cruise at 69 mph. This is within a couple mph of the hardest throwing pitcher in this year's LLWS (who would have just turned 13) and probably typically for a very good select pitcher of that age.

Results:

Increase in velocity from age:
(No height increase)
12 to 13 ~ 3.3 mph
13 to 14 ~ 4.0 mph
14 to 15 ~ 4.0 mph
15 to 16 ~ 3.4 mph
16 to 17 ~ 2.0 mph
17 to 18 ~ 0 mph

Increase in velocity due to height:
(No age increase)

12yo .65 mph/in
13yo .61 mph/in
14yo .58 mph/in
15yo .70 mph/in
16yo .76 mph/in
17yo .76 mph/in

What does this mean?
If your player doesn't grow for a year he could still expect to get the velocity increases over that year as shown above. If your player also grows a few inches as is normal you can also expect some additional velocity gains.

For example a pitcher who goes from 13yo to 14yo and grows 3" during that time would be expected to have a velocity increase of about 4.0 mph due to maturity and an additional increase of a little under 2 mph due to increased height for a total increase of about 5.8 mph.

Another example would be a pitcher who goes from 17 to 18yo and grows 2". No increase due to age would be predicted but a 1.5 mph increase would be predicted due to a gain in height.

quote:

I think there was also some activity in Pre-HS forum but it appears that most of the posts between September and December 2004 are missing...or I just don't know how to look.

That seems to be my problem too.

quote:

I think that CADad basically asked people in this forum to submit their sons' pitching speeds, and he then compiled the data. He states that the data have less validity at the edges of the age range.

The little that was submitted was pretty worthless. Almost every 16 year old kid could "cruise" at 85 And the sampling universe was far too small to be meaningful even if every parent owned a factory calibrated Stalker Pro. I doubt that CADad wasted his engineering talent on such obviously deficient data.

Is it possible that CADad eventually got access to PG's huge database and drew his conclusions from that?

I believe it was CADad who compiled all that info. He did not have access to our database, but could have drawn data off the PG website.

At any rate, I learned a long time ago not to debate with CADad. He is much too intelligent for me.

My opinions are only based on a bad memory and experience. There’s absolutely no factual data behind my thinking.

One thing about having a bad memory, it helps to be honest. That way you don’t have to remember what you said the first time!

The numbers I posted were curve fits based on averages. With the data I had available at the time the two ends of the range were absolutely useless and an artifice of the curve fit I selected. I don't for a moment believe that a pitcher is done gaining velocity at 17yo. I do believe that on average they don't gain a whole lot of velocity after 17 yo.

Curve fits just give us trends and they can't account for late maturers, people who develop their coordination late, recovering from injuries, people who learn their mechanics late, etc.

I never took the effort to build a database from PG's results which would be much better. I believe "bum" did do something like that and got slightly different, but generally similar results. I'd recommend searching for his results. He titled the thread "average velocity increases" and posted it in early September, '06.

The data I got from asking was surprisingly realistic although on the high side, but one would expect that from a more "elite" group such as HSBBweb and other sources that I drew from. The important part was the differences between the reported speeds due to height and age and not the actual speeds. I did make adjustments in reported speeds to match them up with cruising speeds. The average cruising speed from the database/curve fit for an elite 6' tall, 16yo was around 81 or 82 mph on a Jugs gun, or about 80 mph on a Stalker. I also threw out one or two outliers such as Robert Stock. Overall I don't think the results were that unrealistic. While he was healthy my son tended to run right along the curves as he grew, although his max velocity was equal to the "elite" cruising velocity. Unfortunately, we haven't been able to gun him for over a year and he's grown about 5" during that time meaning that according to those curves he would have picked up about 8 mph in velocity. He probably won't be able to throw full speed again for another 6 months or so and who knows where things will go from there. Just another data point but I've got 5 15yo sophmore pitchers who all cruise around mid to high 70s and max out from 79 to 81 on a JUGS gun. They range from about 5'9" to 6'1" and I believe the 5'9" one throws the hardest.

Sorry, micdsguy but I did spend a lot of time on some very limited data. It was just a fun exercise for me and I tried to make sure that I didn't over sell the value of the information.

PG,
Your memory must be faulty, I don't remember coming out on top too often when we debated.

CADad,

I never get concerned with who comes out on top. Just enjoy getting to the bottom of things. Your analytical mind is far beyond me, but I've picked up some pretty good things from you along the way. I think people like "Bum" and yourself add an awful lot to this great site.

I posted my (PG-site) research on average velocity increases (between sophomore and junior years) and if I recall a lot of the feedback I got was that it didn't seem too relevant, that there are just too many external factors to take into account.

Remember, however, my research focused only on LHP's.

IMHO data on "average velocity increases" are relevant for those players that progress with concerted effort, mechanical training, long-tossing and nutrition, and so forth, and not relevant for those players that do nothing and expect a great senior season. The data showed the the average increase to be about 4 MPH between the sophomore and junior years.

It would be fun to compare the averages between the junior and senior seasons but senior showcases on PG's sites are rare.

quote:

I recall a lot of the feedback I got was that it didn't seem too relevant

And what would be relevant, the notion that every pitcher who goes to the right instructor and works hard will throw 95 eventually?

These empirical studies are as relevant as medical growth charts that are often right and occasionally way off.

quote:

The data showed the the average increase to be about 4 MPH between the sophomore and junior years.

That's what I've seen too. And very little gain afterward.

Fact is a lot of 17 year olds are nearly as fast (and tall) as they're going to get. That's hard for a lot of dads and kids to swallow.

OTOH: I think throwing 65 is a pretty good feat. Very few boys/men in the general population can do it

micdsguy,

Who the heck implied that every kid would throw 95? Where did that come from?

I think a lot of 17 y.o. pitchers hit a wall because many of them (certainly not all or even most) were early bloomers who never learned to work hard to get better.. it was always easy for them until now. I can think of many, many pitchers in our HS league that fit that description. A lot of them never pick up a ball for 6 months when the season ends. Of course, as soon as their growth stops, and they're not working on their game, velocity increases stop.

Pitchers like PG's son worked hard on their game. I am assuming most of the kids on this site, and the kids that attend PG events too, fit this description.. continue to work on their game to get better (and faster). So I would infer very little from zero velocity increases for most high school players at age 17.. I would rather look at what the elite athletes have done.

One thing is for sure, the kid that works hard has a chance to increase in velocity, and the one that doesn't has no chance. What would really be hard to swallow, Micdsguy, is my kid playing for someone who doesn't believe it's possible.

Bum,
One little disagreement. "...the one that doesn't" (work hard) "has no chance."

The one who doesn't work hard has much less chance, but even the ones who don't work hard sometimes can increase their velocity because they grow late, get coordinated, figure it out, etc.

That whole thing is kind of like when my son would go to Mark Cresse's camps and he would tell the kids that they would have to work hard to get anywhere in baseball, unless they had Darryl Strawberry's talent and that almost nobody has that much talent. Sometimes great talent can overcome lack of effort.

Life isn't always fair and although hard work certainly increases the chances of improving velocity it doesn't guarantee it.

Having said that, I believe that any pitcher with a desire to progress in the game should work hard and smart to increase their velocity along with their overall pitching ability.

I also do not believe velocity is near over with after age 17. Great example is of course Billy Wagner, but also junior year, Roger Clemens was only throwing low to mid 80's, and that was at arond 200 lbs. Andy Pettitte also only threw low 80's junior year and graduated HS throwing 85. And at that time he was a beefy 6'5", yet he still progressed into low 90's. I also believe, like someone mentioned, that it does have some to do with early bloomers v late bloomers. Late bloomers will probably increase a lot more after age 17, simply because the age "17" does not signify a stoppage of growth for them. I don't have any fancy statistics or data to back up my beliefs, but thats just my 2 cents. I've seen and heard of many pitchers velocity going way up AFTER HS is completed. If I'm not mistaken, I also believe that Mariano Rivera had a massive jump in velocity at a much older age than 17 while he was in the minors. But take this reply for what it is...just my thoughts, nothing more.

Some very good points, Uponthemound. And so refreshing that you're a self-professed "non-guru"!

IMHO the pitchers who increase velocity in later years also increase in leg and core strength. Clemens is a conditioning-freak with huge legs.. Wagner too. So if a kid stops growing vertically there's more growth that can be accomplished!

Some guys have a steady progression in velocity increase, in fact I would say most. And some guys have jumps in velocity increase. There are alot of factors that come into play and then there is the unknown factor. Figure that one out and I want a job working for you because we are all going to be rich. I had a fresh LHP that had all the physical tools coming into HS. 6'3 lean 190 athletic build with huge hands and feet 15 size shoe. His mechanics were ok but he was very strong. He topped out at 78 his Freshman year. He worked hard in the off season on his mechanics and core and topped out at 84 after his soph season. His Jr year he came out and hit 89 his first start pitching in the 85-87 range. His Sr year he topped out at 94 and pitched in the 89-91 range. He is listed as the #3 ranked prospect in the Braves farm system and was the Double AA pitcher of the year for the Braves last year. His velocity is the same now as it was as a 17 year old sr. He is now 21. He has outstanding controll and pitches with an effortless delivery. Then I have seen guys come into HS as Freshman throwing 84 and worked hard and left throwing 87. There are so many variables and there are so many unknown factors. Work hard and get the most out of your abilities. Then you wont have to answer the question to yourself the rest of your life "What if I had worked hard"? I agree with PG CaDad and Bum your posts are very good and I really enjoy reading them.

Good points on physical maturation being reached at different times. And on growth being not only height, but muscle mass.

Some mature much later. Drysdale grew 5" after leaving HS. And as some have pointed out, certain pitchers added significant muscle mass after HS even though they didn't add much height.

A moment to look at the flipside.

Mechanics (more specifically, the lack thereof), overuse, etc. can be hindrances to velocity increases in spite of all other factors.

I know of a 6'7" LHP who has lost velocity from his sophomore to his senior year. Had scouts drooling all over him at Jupiter as a sophomore. Recently signed with a school that was way below where he had set his "bar" a couple of years ago.

I have seen others who gained almost nothing over their last 2-3 years of HS. Some due to poor mechanics that limited their improvement and degraded their arm/shoulder. Some due to overuse (often playing for multiple teams, pitching on short or no rest, high pitch counts). Some due to excessive use of the breaking ball (curve, slider) that caused physical problems and/or hindered development of their fastball.

These type problems CAN be avoided. Growth cannot be forced to occur (at least without medical intervention). But certainly the factors that will hinder a pitcher's development can be avoided.

Bottom line:
Avoid the bad practices.
Work hard on the good: conditioning, strength training, mechanics, mental toughness, etc.
Then whatever happens, the pitcher has given it his best shot. The gun will read what the gun reads...

Yes some very good points.
My son stagnated for about 3 year and then he jumped up about 4 mph. His mechanics were very good and I asked his doctor why he didn't throw harder and he said it would come. He was always under developed at 6'3" and 160 LBS. His arms were skinny but he had lrge hands with long skinny fingers.
This year he has reached 187lbs and muscled up nicely. I don't know hat his velo is yet but hopefully he will gain a few MPH.
I used to ask him why he would throw harder some days than others. He listed about 5-6 reasons and he said some days he just feels stronger than others.

quote:

Some mature much later. Drysdale grew 5" after leaving HS.

True, such late spurts happen, but medical growth charts all show a virtually flat line after age 17 or 18 which is where such charts end.

I'm dubious of HS pitching speed claims relating to current pro stars. If a kid was throwing in the low to mid-80s years ago, how many times would he have been accurately gunned? MAYBE once.

There's a lot of wishful thinking here. Reminds me of the nonsense one reads about Michael Jordan's supposed early failures in HS basketball. Fact is he was an excellent player early on and a star when he sprouted his sophomore year in HS. (before age 17, I presume LOL)

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
My son... I used to ask him why he would throw harder some days than others. He listed about 5-6 reasons and he said some days he just feels stronger than others.

I tried last year to start a thread on that same subject. Velocity bounces around quite a bit from day to day for no apparent reason. A healthy well-rested pitcher can struggle to reach 79; a week later he drags himself into a game and lights up at 85.

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:

quote:

Some mature much later. Drysdale grew 5" after leaving HS.

True, such late spurts happen, but medical growth charts all show a virtually flat line after age 17 or 18 which is where such charts end.

...

There's a lot of wishful thinking here.

We are talking about the individual here, not the average.

Some kids are as tall as they are going to get at 15. Others don't finish until they are 20. No way to know for sure.

Again, the bottom line is that growth cannot be controlled. Furthermore, size increases do not necessarily cause velocity increases.

Work on the things that can be controlled/affected. Don't worry about the rest.

quote:

"Welcome to Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."

Here's a U.S. gov't growth chart for boys which goes to age 20:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhanes/growthcharts/set1clinical/cj41l021.pdf

Yet that is not truly a growth chart. It shows percentiles of height at specific ages. It does not show percentiles at growth rates.

Either way, it is practically worthless when trying to project pitching velocity for a given individual.

I'm sure that there is always a natural speed increase do to growth and maturity. However, how can you calculate desire and work ethic? I've seen kids who have increased 6-7mph by working on their mechanics and strengthening their core in a relatively short period of time. The 2 kids I know of were both young 15's, average height and build.