Velocity Questions

The only place I have seen this listed is at:

http://www.webball.com/cms/page1522.cfm

The numbers seem reasonable. You can email Webball and they will give you some insight to their numbers. I am sure there are some historical threads on this site about it if you search around some.

A pitching coach my son went to previously used to say that average Freshmen were around 72MPH, top 3% were at 78MPH. Don't know where he got these numbers from.

There has been a previous discussion on HSBBW about "average velocities". But listen, it really doesn't matter what the average velocity is for younger kids. Kids change quickly and spike. If you're wondering about h.s. velocities, I'd say the averages are about

Fresh: 68
Soph: 74
Junior: 78
Senior: 82

Bum has analyzed data from showcases in the past so he has something to refer to when making his estimate of average speeds in HS.

I think those numbers are a little low.

Low 70's for frosh
Mid 70's for soph
Jr/Sr is proably about 80ish.

Ave. "Lefties" are lower.

Our high school is in the largest Class (AA) in IL. Smaller schools might have lower averages.

CADad, no.. just a guestimate. My analysis of showcase data probably won't help here. I don't think showcase attendees represent an unbiased sample of the population. Those are kids whose parents thought they were good enough to attend the event; I would safely assume they're at least slightly better than "average".

Having said that, I've seen a lot of baseball now, so I think I'm pretty close.

Not to pick on "Travel Baseball" but as always when this question comes up, the answer depends upon how the universe of pitchers is defined.

To start with, what age brackets are being "measured"?

If it is narrowed to high schools, is it all levels of high school baseball - or just varsity?

Is it all programs - or just the "good programs"?

Then is it all pitchers - e.g. everyone who ever takes the mound?

Or is it all "regular pitchers" meaning pitchers who get work every week?

Or is it the average pitch thrown (meaning a weighted average with good pitchers getting a higher percentage of the throws)?

If you assume High school pitchers, all teams, including all programs and all pitchers - that is you are magically lining up everyone in high school who will throw a pitch in a HS game this year and gunning their best fastball, I think Bum is actually a little high. There are a lot of really weak pitchers out there who would pull down the numbers. I'd say more like:

Fresh: 65
Soph: 70
Junior: 73
Senior: 75

If you narrow the universe to assume REGULAR High school pitchers, all teams, including all programs and all pitchers, I think Bum is actually still a little high just because of the very large number of programs who have 1 or 2 good pitchers and then a fall off for pitchers 3 and 4. I'd say more like:

Fresh: 67
Soph: 72
Junior: 75
Senior: 78

I don't have any hard data to back this up, no one can have a large enough sample - but I do have a stalker that I used at multiple varsity level games last year - and the Junior/Senior numbers are based on that. For every 85+ I saw on the gun I saw a lot more of 75 and below.

Now if you talk about the showcase/national event circuit - whole different universe - WWBA 17U was land of the 80s and 90s!!!!

08

Bum,
I was just saying that you had an idea for showcase players and knowing that was way too high you could guess how much less the average player might be rather than just guessing without any basis.

On a Stalker the working velocities for our varsity winterball staff would most likely have been:
Seniors:
86
85
81
Juniors:
81
78
78
78
Sophmores:
81
71

In all cases that's more the high end of their working velocity on a Stalker. I've gotten most of them on a JUGS and have subtraced 2 mph to get an equivalent Stalker number. For example, the 86 mph comes from a pitcher whose 4 seamer read 87-88 on my JUGS at their last game.

The junior at 81 typically throws 78-79 on a Stalker but works in the range of 78-81 and has hit a couple mph higher in a game.

Bum:

quote:

Fresh: 68
Soph: 74
Junior: 78
Senior: 82

Bum's first three are right. Many kids gain very little speed after age 17. Senior is about 78-80. Top-out for varsity starters in decent programs.

I like to really simplify it as
Freshman: 70
JV: 75
Varsity: 80
(but far more fresh are under 70 than over)

micdsguy,

There is indeed a spike in velocity between the Junior and Senior years with respect to the average fastball. There are at least three factors involved which support my claim to an increase of about four between the Junior and Senior years:

1) My research shows the average gain is about 1-2 MPH between the Junior and Senior years (if you're just looking at an individual pitcher).

2) Those that gain the most pitch more and those that don't gain don't pitch as much, on average. This raises the "average" fastball even further since the population analyzed is more talented compared to the population the previous year.

3) Marginal pitchers (or pitchers with little success) tend to drop out. You might have three 78 guys (Juniors.. 1 on varsity, 2 on JV) and the next year two of them make a big gain in velocity and one drops out.

But, as has been pointed out by many HSBBW members, the "average" means NOTHING. A freshman or sophomore pitcher should be more concerned about mechanics, arm slot, arm strength, and developing quality pitches. When he's a Junior or Senior, he could care less about the average high school fastball.. he's now more concerned about the average COLLEGE fastball (the next level).

Bum, agree.

In mutual funds that's called survivorship bias. That's why so many funds have "above average" returns like fictional Lake Woebegon where "all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average,"

Bad mutual funds tend to be merged out of existence. Similarly slower pitchers are slightly more likely to quit.

---

These posts about "averages" never mention the significant numbers of older pitchers who SLOW DOWN due to arm problems, or whatever.

-----

To be more accurate, by "freshman," are we talking about 9th graders or kids on the freshman team? The very rare 9th grader who throws 80 is not likely to be on the freshman team.

------

Has any kid ever been cut from a HS team *just* because he was slow? I know one varsity starter who topped out in the high 60s and had a 2.00 era.