Waste pitches.

For pro pitchers, I wouldn't call any pitch which hits (or comes close) to hitting their spot (we're talking out of zone here) a waste pitch. For pitchers at that level every pitch has a supposed purpose - moving eyes, feet, whatever; all to give an advantage for the next sequence (and if the batter fishes, so much the better). Yes, pitchers do miss their spot on occasion - sometimes by wide margins; but on pitches in the dirt, or high, or whatever which are intended to be placed there, those pitches represent just another move in the chess game.

Additionally, the scouting reports pro pitchers get detail individual batters proclivity to swing - or be set up - at certain pitches. The higher you go in the food chain (beginning in HS), generally the better these scouting reports and the more able the pitcher is to execute according to the scouting reports (and, of course the batters have the same advantage). 

At the HS level all too many times the pitch is a waste pitch - the purpose behind it is to get the batter to fish rather then set up a sequence. It's really the difference between the chess game played in proball and the game of checkers played at most HS.. 

As as an aside, making the ball fool the brain in that last 30 or so feet (when the batter can't make adjustments) is a key. The late massive breaks most pro pitchers possess, does just that on pitches which remain in the zone until too late for the batter to take the pitch. So, in reality, a pitcher with that type of pitch makes a decision; throw a pitch which appears out of the zone and then bends into the zone, or throw a pitch which appears in the zone until it dives out of the zone. A good scouting report will make that determination; good execution determines the result.

I don't agree that it's always a waste of time getting batters to swing at pitches in the dirt.   Many pitchers have made many millions doing exactly that.

Since you note pitches in the dirt, for your HS games do you track what percentage of those are swung at?

Originally Posted by JCG:

I don't agree that it's always a waste of time getting batters to swing at pitches in the dirt.   Many pitchers have made many millions doing exactly that.

I never said it was ALWAYS a waste of time getting batters to swing at pitches in the dirt.

Since you note pitches in the dirt, for your HS games do you track what percentage of those are swung at?

I don’t do it on as part of a regular metric, but I could if I chose to.

His breaking ball is much more hard slider (2 to 8) action than traditional 12-6 or 1-7 curve so when he wants to start that pitch in the zone to get the swing-and-miss it usually ends up down and away instead of in the dirt.  That said, if you look at his highlight tapes (i.e. 2014) there are still several K's that are bounced.  He is also a pitcher that relies much more on great location than nasty movement.  Different types of pitchers work with different types of pitches.

Jim Palmer claims 60% of the pitches hitters swung at against him were not in the strike zone. He had great control and command. He could put the ball mostly where he wanted off the plate.

At lower levels a breaking ball in the dirt can be very effective against an undiciplined hitter. Also, giving up a hit on 0-2 will incur the coach's wrath. Most pitchers at lower levels don't have the command to put the ball consistantly three, four inches off the plate.

Which always sorts of cracks me up.  

You have coaches having kids try to pitch like guys with pin point control when they dont have it.  

You have kids burning pitches by being a foot off the plate or bouncing pitches in because they don't have control.  I have heard many coaches instruct pitchers to not give the hitter anything to hit when it is 0-2 or 1-2 then chastise the pitcher when they end up walking guys.  If the pitcher doesn't have that kind of command, you have to work with what the player has.  

This applies in the youth game obviously.  Even into high school I can't tell you how often I see 0-2 counts run to 3-2.  At 3-2 the pitcher ends up grooving a FB half the time anyway.  

Personally, I  totally reject the concept of a "waste" pitch.  Every single pitch should be a competitive pitch with a purpose.   Of course, what counts as a competitive pitch  depends on both the pitcher's arsenal and the hitter's plate discipline.  Sometimes a pitch in the dirt can be a highly competitive pitch.  Other times not.  

But I would think that even at youth levels you want to teach your pitcher to compete and have a purpose  on every single pitch whether it's a 2-0 or an 0-2 count.

Your response as well as the few others to the OP was appropriate.

Asking why some pitchers do or do not throw in the dirt tells me he really doesnt get it.

Lets see if an argument from the simple responses develops!

Koji Uehara throws a lot of pitches in e dirt. It's due to his splitter falling off the table. Stats needs to contact him and tell him he's ineffective and wasting pitches. Especially in 2013.

Originally Posted by cabbagedad:

His breaking ball is much more hard slider (2 to 8) action than traditional 12-6 or 1-7 curve so when he wants to start that pitch in the zone to get the swing-and-miss it usually ends up down and away instead of in the dirt.  That said, if you look at his highlight tapes (i.e. 2014) there are still several K's that are bounced.  He is also a pitcher that relies much more on great location than nasty movement.  Different types of pitchers work with different types of pitches.

I never said he never bounced a pitch either on a K or any other pitch! I commented on that one game. But, being a Tribe fan, I can honestly say I’ve seem Kluber pitch more times than most, and scored plenty of his games as well. Compared to all the other pitchers I’ve seen or scored, he doesn’t chuck many pitches in the dirt.

Yup.. thought we covered that.  Slider vs curve (or splitter).  Trajectory of movement, particularly when pitch intention is swing-and-miss.  Spotters vs nasty stuff guys. Different pitch types from different pitchers. 

Just trying to answer your OP question..  "So why is it other pitchers can’t/won’t/don’t do the same thing?"     Pretty straight forward.

I will give you this... he is sure as heck the best pitcher with a losing record in the game today.  They had their shot at Nelson Cruz and took Moss and Gavin Floyd instead.  Oops. 

In the data I have, in 25,855 PAs, there we 2,465 PAs that began with 0-2 counts. 1,039 ended in a K, 134 ended in walks, and 298 went to 3-2. 379 ended up as a hit. After an 0-2 count, runners reached safely at a rate of .262.

Just for some context:

This 1^st pitcher threw 622 PAs, 82 of which started 0-2. 38 ended in Ks, 4 in walks, 10 went to 3-2, 7 ended as a hit, and after an 0-2 count, runners reached safely at a rate of .183.

Arguably the best pitcher I scored for threw 742 PAs, 99 of which started 0-2. 54 ended in Ks, 4 in walks, 4 went to 3-2, 6 ended as a hit, and after an 0-2 count, runners reached safely at a rate of .131.

The only pitcher I scored for that got drafted out of HS was drafted in the 3^rd round at 113. He threw 467 PAs, 50 of which started 0-2. 29 ended in Ks, 4 in walks, 8 went to 3-2, 6 ended as a hit, and after an 0-2 count, runners reached safely at a rate of .240.

All 3 graduated at 17. The 1^st was 5’9” 135, the 2^nd boy was 5’10” 185, the 3^rd was 6’2” 185. The 1^st was gunned as high as 91, but cruised at 83-85. The 2^nd boy was gunned as high as 88, but cruised at 83-85. The 3^rd was gunned as high as 93, but cruised at 85-88.

Other than those 3 there were 2,234 0-2 counts in 24,024 PAs. 918 ended in Ks, 122 in walks, 276 went to 3-2, 360 ended in hits, and after an 0-2 count, runners reached safely at a rate of .271.

Since two of those pitchers had the “best” numbers of all the pitchers in the database, and the 3^rd was a monster by all other accounts, it’s pretty easy to see that the average pitcher in the database did far worse in those situations. Of course someone else may well have data showing otherwise.

Impressive quantity of stats. I love the mining done. Wonder what similar sample size at a power D1 and proball would reveal?

i think the fact that significantly less than 50% of 0 - 2 counts end in strikeouts may demonstrate that the pitchers try to nibble their way to the conclusion of the at-bat instead of aggressively attacking and finishing off the batter. 

Anecdotally, as S advanced up the chain his 0 - 2 k rate increased. As he moved up the chain he assimilated lots of lessons and one was if the batter has dug himself a hole, don't throw him a ladder by evening the count (And don't try to throw a more perfect perfect pitch).

I'd also treat balls in play the same - regardless of whether a hit resulted. I believe that a ball caught or a ball dropping in has a "luck" function; to get rid of the "luck" the pitcher needs to simply strike the batter out. (Oops, opened the "pitch to contact v. Strikeout issue"!)

Around 45% of MLB 0-2 counts end in strikeouts. I'd guess that 50% is probably near an upper bound in competitive leagues.

Jacjacl. Cool stat. Where are some sites that give that info?

http://www.baseball-reference....lg=MLB&year=2014

Thanks. I knew about the site, but never explored it In depth. That page is a stat heads dream!

i think the 0 - 2 at bats resolve in a k on the next pitch about 45%; the batters who didn't resolve either go back to the 0 - 2 (foul) or to the 1 - 2 row; those guys k at a lower but still significant rate and that should be added to the original 45% number, etc., no? I am not a stats guy at the truly mathematical level - I tend to look at the stuff other people have done the heavy lifting so I have no pride in my hypothesis. I think guys faced with an 0 - 2 count on the MLB level k more then 45% - what're your thoughts?

No, there's a line for after 0-2, which is where I got the 45%, and that includes every PA that starts 0-2, regardless of the count when it ends.

There's a separate line for on 0-2, which is just for PAs that end on the 0-2 pitch. That one's closer to 50%.

After seeing the commentary I changed my query a bit to only consider PAs ending on the 3^rd pitch.

In 4,488 3 pitch PAs there were 1,627 PAs that began with 0-2 counts. 794 ended in a K for a K rate of .488. 266 ended up as a hit, 41 were HBPs, and 41 as ROEs. After an 0-2 count, runners reached safely at a rate of .213.

It’s really imperative to know precisely what you’re looking at and what you’re looking for.

Didn't have time to read thread really, but there are no 'waste pitches' for a talented pitcher.  There are 'bad pitches,' but not 'waste pitches.'

Every pitch has a purpose whether a strike or not, whether above the shoulders or in the dirt...whether inches inside or outside.

Always a purpose.