What happens to "Breakout" Seniors?

One strategy would be to consider a post graduate year at a prep school.  It re-sets the clock back a year.

 

That said, recruiting isn't impossible even that late.  Sometimes a college has a kid with a breakout year in their junior season and they end up losing him in the draft when they hadn't planned to.  That can be a risky strategy to follow, but it happens.

We had a player have exactly such a year last season.  Started the year as #3 pitcher and batting 6th.  Nice kid, nice player, but you wouldn't think of him a "special" or playing baseball at the next level.   Ended up as #1 pitcher, ERA under 1, won every one of his starts, hit well, batted 4th, was recognized as player of the year in league and in county, which includes several leagues.  

 

I'm not sure but don't think he was trying to be recruited  and I think he was headed to a 4 year school. Now he's at a well regarded JC for baseball. It'll be interesting to see how he does.  

We had a kid last year as well... showed projectable talent and body for a few years but was more academically driven and didn't care to commit the extra time to showcase/travel efforts.  Got him to go to one nearby D1 college (top 25) showcase winter before senior year.  Raised a few eyebrows but no action. After senior year, he was encouraged to play with a local summer college team.  Pitching coach had ties to same local D1.  The plan was to get him one more look from this school but he was going to attend there anyway without baseball.  He is now on the roster as a preferred walk-on and seems to love it.

I think this is a very rare scenario and not one you would plan for.  But it may make sense to apply at some aspirational schools as a "just in case" with that in mind if it's not too late.  I know you are in California.  I see quite a few Calif. JC standouts make the jump after one year. 

 

We attended a D1 prospect camp in December where three D1 recruiting coordinators talked about this exact thing. On the one hand they are forced to recruit kids earlier & earlier to keep up with everyone else. On the other they like seeing breakout seniors, as all three of these schools cited that the 18 year old is a lot easier to project than the 15-17 year old, and all three of these schools try to have at least 1-2 spots open for breakout seniors. Maybe not a full scholarship at that point, but they all stressed to not freak out if you go into your senior season without knowing where you will be playing.

If a kid is THAT good, even the D1 that has supposedly pledged all of its scholarship dollars will find room for him.  Some will even dump other prospects to make room. 

here is my son's story which might apply.  He is a 5"11" 180 RHP, who had aspirations to be a 2 way player (Very good hitter and 3B but not deemed D1).Summer before his senior year he had a good summer 84-88 MPH but in 2 big showcases was 83-85. Got interest from lots of D2 and 3- many offered to have him be a 2 way player,. At same time had a d1 team following him all summer. In September was offered a walk on spot at that D1(as PO) and had several offers from D2 and 3's (for 2 way). Went to a showcase at a D1 early September, threw consistent 88-89. They told him they were going to offer, then pulled out at last minute and offered walk on.

 

He ended up accepting walk on at D1 that followed him all summer.

 

He really worked hard all winter on baseball inbetween basketball (first time he had done anything like that). Spring HS came along, He was pitching lights out. Hitting well as well. Big HS rivalry game (on a Tuesday), important for league title etc in the end of April. Player on other team was being scouted for MLB draft and had a couple of scouts there. Long story short he had a fantastic game. 16K in 6 innings, 3 K each for the MLB prospect and another All State player. I  knew he was throwing hard. After game MLB scouts came up to me and said he was sitting 91-92 and had hit 95 4 times including 2 in 6th (both against the prospect). That night pitching coach got calls from several MLB scouts, asked where he was going to college among other things. Coach told them he was a walk on a local D1. By 11pm that night he had 2 offers from colleges with significant money no where near Ohio. Original college found out and came up with a nice offer. lLots of MLB scouts called over next few days and Colleges wanted to know if he was "back in the market". Much soul searching and he decided he was. 2 more offers by D1's (total of 5 by Saturday-  5 days after he pitched). Lots of interest from some very big D1's- Following Tuesday next game to pitch- stands packed with scouts and college coaches (It was a circus). He threw well 88-91, shut out team. ended in 5 innings with him hitting a walk off HR. By 4th innings, pro scouts had decided he wasn't ready for draft and were leaving, Most of colleges stayed. 3 Big time colleges wanted him to wait until ater draft for them to make an offer, 4 more colleges made offers with 24 hours of that game. His original college he had walk on offer offered even more money. He went to visit 2 of the other colleges. One of those was the college that he had went to showcase and they had offered and then back out "because they were out of money when he didnt say yes right away and someone else did".Anyways both of those HC said they always held back a little money for someone who was "special" in spring of Senior then if not gave it to an upperclassman. Original walk on college upped the ante twice because they had someone leaving the program and found out at that moment.

 

He loved his original choice and ended up going to same college as he had accepted the walk on status but now with scholarship money.

 

Basically what I am saying is if you have an exceptional HS spring season and do it in front of the right people, then there can be potentially be money. Not everywhere, many have used it all (we were told that about 10 times) but some will.

 

I know my son's case is very unique so I wouldn't count on it. He and I weren't. He had accepted where he was going to play and was quite content. This came out of a special performance in front of the right people and then 2 colleges willing to offer despite him having  committed to somewhere (with no NLI).

 

It was a fun, stressful, crazy 2 weeks, but in the end he ended up exactly where he should be.    

I know of two kids who had breakout senior years and were recruited. One was recruited by an Ivy and an A10. He didn't get on the mound until senior year at a powerhouse. He went under the radar screen playing Legion. The Ivy told him it was too late for the coach to help with admissions. The kid didn't get accepted. He went to the A10. He got money starting with soph year.

The second kid didn't see himself as a prospect. He compared himself to his high school shortstop buddy who was recruited by an SEC. Summer after senior year a scout asked him where he would be playing. The kid told him an ACC but he won't be playing. The scout's response was "The hell you're not. I'm calling the coach on your behalf." The kid got money the second year. He was eventually drafted and signed.

Late adds (summer prior to school starting) are not that unusual, mostly for pitchers as schools lose kids to the draft and have some money available. My son had two friends in those situations get picked up by two different D1 programs. 

Slugger, applying this to your son and CA., there are some D1 programs which run unsigned senior All Star Camps at the conclusion of the college season.  Some of these are higher academic schools so that could be a limitation based on an earlier post you have made about Trinity U and concerns about admissions.

If  a player excels at one of these camps, a recruited walk-on proposal can be forthcoming. I can attest that the coaching staffs take this type of camp very seriously in looking to upgrade the talent level.  I know of at least one player from a WCAL program who followed this procedure, received a recruited walk on commitment in June following his senior year from a coach who really wanted him and commited , and then got a July $$$ offer from a WCC school and took that one without ever telling the coaching staff with which he committed a few weeks earlier.

I have lost track of him since then but I know he left the WCC program after one year, went JC and then an NAIA. This was/is a position player.

What the player and family never know in these situations is "fit."  Our son had two D1 offers in July following his senior year from WCC programs. He also had a top JC coach heavily recruit him.