What is the ideal weight for a HS draft prospect?

It depends on position.  This is also evolving.  Plenty of 2021's are 195 right now.  The game is evolving quickly.  I would bet that by the time 2022's & 2023's are drafted they will have statures similar to today's MLB players.  

Some people might suggest the ideal weight for a potential high school draft pick to be on the light side. Say 170-175. The scouts would start drooling at the projectability of when the kid gets to 195-200.

RJM posted:

Some people might suggest the ideal weight for a potential high school draft pick to be on the light side. Say 170-175. The scouts would start drooling at the projectability of when the kid gets to 195-200.

But wouldnt the scouts prefer a guy who can hit bombs now? Bryce Harper didn't have much power projection at 15 but he also had nearly average mlb power at that age and could hit 450 foot homers in bp  while other 15u were glad if they could pull a homer 350 down the line.

Also true with pitchers, why take a 160 pound "projection guy" throwing 89 who might throw 95 in 4 years when you can take a 200 pound kid blowing 95 now?

The top high school draft picks are making impacts on MLB Clubs at the age of 20.   There is a preference for players who can be contributors as young as possible.   As the OP said, you better start dedicated lifting at 14-15.   If you wait until you are 18 or 19 to start putting on 20-25 pounds of muscle you are way way behind the curve.  Especially in 2019.  And I bet, even moreso, in coming years.  

A lot of kids/prospects have trouble bulking up until 18-20. There aren’t many Harpers in the draft. The few players successfully coming up at 20 tend to be Caribbeans who signed at 16. The average age of a MLB rookie in 2018 was 24.5.

3and2Fastball posted:

It depends on position.  This is also evolving.  Plenty of 2021's are 195 right now.  The game is evolving quickly.  I would bet that by the time 2022's & 2023's are drafted they will have statures similar to today's MLB players.  

I agree, however I think there will be a slight roll back towards more athletic, lighter guys in mlb. In track and field for example there is a trend toward slimmer, more "functional strength" guys. Decathlon Olympic champion Eaton is a good example for that, he is of slight build, super fast and still strong and a good thrower.

Decathletes used to be 210 or so but now the best look like this

https://images.app.goo.gl/Pnrxpc9Yty8UBEyG8

With the modern uppercut swing and juiced ball  you don't need to be 240 to hit 35 bombs, there are more and more guys like mookie or lindor who are like 175-185 and still hit 35 bombs.

I don't think anyone will be as small as mookie but I think it might make more sense to be 200 and still super strong and athletic than being 230 which will limit speed and might cause more injuries long term (there are some very fast big guys but they usually don't keep the speed very long).

Players will keep getting Bigger Faster Stronger in coming decades.  15 years from now there'll be 30-40 players in MLB with Mike Trout's size & speed.  Probably a lot sooner than that

Faster and stronger yes but I don't know about bigger. With modern training you can be super strong without getting super huge. There are now power lifters who can deadlift 600 pounds at 170 pounds body weight. Sprinters and decathletes are getting slimmer than 10 years ago too.

Imo there is no reason to weigh 240 when you can deadlift 450 pounds and hit a ball 110 mph at 190 pounds body weight. There are no extra points for hitting the ball 500 feet, when you can hit 35 bombs already, extra weight doesn't help you much.

We'll see.  The nice thing is that this is a disagreement where we can find out who ends up correct: we will watch it play out over the next few decades.

It isn't so much about hitting the ball 500 feet.  It is the strength to be able to still hit the ones you don't square up for HR's.  

Yeah could be both. Either we see more puig types who are huge and still good athletes or more wiry strength type athletes like lindor. Maybe it is both.

Dominik85 posted:

Faster and stronger yes but I don't know about bigger. With modern training you can be super strong without getting super huge. There are now power lifters who can deadlift 600 pounds at 170 pounds body weight. Sprinters and decathletes are getting slimmer than 10 years ago too.

Imo there is no reason to weigh 240 when you can deadlift 450 pounds and hit a ball 110 mph at 190 pounds body weight. There are no extra points for hitting the ball 500 feet, when you can hit 35 bombs already, extra weight doesn't help you much.

They'll always want bigger and stronger.  Even if a 190 pounder can hit 110mph, there's a preference for the same talent to be 210 pounds hitting 120mph.  There's more margin, so even mishit balls have a chance to go out.  It's the same reason they want pitchers that throw hard, to provide margin for the missed spots.

The #1 ranked 3B in the 2021 class in the state of Illinois is 6'3" 240.  He has a 107 Exit Velo off the tee.  South Carolina commit.  That's a high school Sophomore.   They are just gonna keep getting bigger

3and2Fastball posted:

The #1 ranked 3B in the 2021 class in the state of Illinois is 6'3" 240.  He has a 107 Exit Velo off the tee.  South Carolina commit.  That's a high school Sophomore.   They are just gonna keep getting bigger

Does he have any chance to stick at third or any other position than first or DH? 

Big third basemen or outfielders tend to get moved to first pretty quickly in pro ball. Not many guys drafted at 220+ playing anything but first base

Here is an interesting article about draft trends:

https://theathletic.com/998546...-the-2019-mlb-draft/

-pitchers are getting older, hitters virtually unchanged (less HS hitters drafted)

-pitchers are throwing harder but peak velo has not changed that much

-players are actually getting lighter looking at their BMI. They got bigger until the mid to late 00s but since about a decade they are trending lighter. A reason might be a trend away from corner/1b guys (even though there is an exception like vaughn/schwarber in most years) to multi position flexible guys (because everyone wants to play ben zobrist type positionless baseball)