When might recruiting go back to normal?

I think there may be a "new normal" as this will likely have a ripple effect and true evolution takes place amid cataclysmic events.   Things we could see (not really) as a ripple effect or fallout:

NCAA baseball becoming more of a true minor league for MLB, similar to College football and basketball for the NFL and NBA, respectively.  MLB owners would love to stop paying for HS prospects and failing minor league franchises.  They would love to continue to cut draft rounds indefinitely and contract their minor leagues.

NCAA baseball quality would go way up.  HS draftees would become far fewer because of increased speculation vs known college commodities.  NCAA coaches salaries would take a big jump.  Measurables - height, weight, bat speed, 60 times, fastball and exit velos would become even more important on scouting college prospects.

MLB would prefer to draft players a little later, their physicality and skill will be more predictable against better competition, and it would also delay their arbitration and free agency clocks until they have had more time to develop.  Ultimately getting the athlete's most productive years at a lesser price.

Ultimately, a shift in the NCAA season and to a larger roster with NCAA baseball replacing a portion of MiLB.  Could see an extended season later into the summer.  Adding an additional 15-20 games and ending mid July instead of mid June.

None of this is likely, but there will be a "new normal".

Not too many programs  we saw graduate the guys in 4 given they mostly take 12 hrs/semester. Different for Ivys and UVA where you have to graduate after 4, period.  O'COnnor at UVA put it this way. AP and college credits help, but with only taking 12/semester, you guaranty 5 years of tuition in order to graduate with the needed credit hours. UVA the guys carry 15 hrs. in order to get out in 4.

Would be interesting with the longer season, but then that would decimate the summer collegiate leagues and system no?  It also doesn't allow the guys to take summer classes either to pick up a few extra hours and would be on the AD/school dime to extend the season.........

MLB owners would love to stop paying for HS prospects and failing minor league franchises.

What do you mean by failing minor league franchises? MLB teams don’t typically own minor league franchises. The exception I’m aware of is the Mets own one of their A teams. MLB’s only responsibility to minor league teams is to pay players and coaches.

To answer the question - when MLB figures out the state of the draft moving forward. Is it going to be 5 rounds this year, 20 rounds in '21, 40 rounds in '22? Is it going to be 5 forever? 

Once college coaches can accurately estimate how many they're going to lose to the draft they can start recruiting normally again. If the shorter drafts stick (I think we've seen our last 40 rd draft) it will likely never go back to "normal" with recruiting classes of 16/17/18. You will see a lot more classes with 6-12 guys and a lot more talent being dispersed across other conferences. The top dogs will remain at the top, but the landscape will likely become a lot more competitive. 

RJM posted:

MLB owners would love to stop paying for HS prospects and failing minor league franchises.

What do you mean by failing minor league franchises? MLB teams don’t typically own minor league franchises. The exception I’m aware of is the Mets own one of their A teams. MLB’s only responsibility to minor league teams is to pay players and coaches.

I guess my perspective is biased as a guy from the southeast.  The Braves own all their minor league franchises and the Giants bought their affiliate in Augusta a few years back.  (I know a lot of guys in the northeast think all pro ball is played between Massachusetts and New York, maybe that's why you only know about one Mets exception...Just kidding). But some other MLB clubs frequently have part (minority)ownership in their minor league affiliates.

What I mean is that MLB clubs don't like paying sign-on bonuses to draftees and would choose to pay them all minimal salaries.  In some sense, they feel like they are subsidizing minor leagues.  They would much rather have a college system that does this for them.

The players association tries to keep MLB ownership as honest as they can - having them pay bonuses to new draftees, otherwise veteran players would get squeezed out by cheaper labor(talented minor league players under the control of the MLB affiliate).  If the MLB franchise has to put significant investment in the minor league players, the Players Association knows they have more skin-in-the-game.  They will develop the ones with true talent, but they also need to have a bunch of bodies (like most walk-on football players) around them to make it work.  Again, they would much prefer more of this was done in college,  at no cost to them.

I used to be in an investment group that owned four minor league teams. We’ve since sold. I’ve also lived in six different metro areas of the country as an adult (three in the east, three in the west and spent a year commuting to four more almost weekly in another state). It’s where my perspective comes from.

It's tough to hear tone in a post.  That's why I stated Just kidding. 

You asked a question that I answered.  

First, I didn't state that any MLB teams owned Milb franchises.  I stated, "MLB owners would love to stop paying for HS prospects and failing minor league franchises." So I clarified, and explained that MLB owners feel as though they subsidize the minors by paying players' salaries and bonuses.

I also pointed out that there are multiple MLB teams that have some level of ownership in the minor league affiliates, I only included this because you:

A) inferred that I made a statement I didn't

B) implied that the statement (I didn't make) was wrong

Just an FYI. I randomly did a Google search on the following teams.

Atlanta owns 6 affiliates, Cardinals own 6 as well. The Yankees own all but 3, Red Sox all but 4. The Marlins own 3. Houston owns 4. Dodgers own 4 affiliates.

And NY Mets owns 6.

The Red Sox owning all but four means they own three in Fort Myers and one more. It would make sense for an MLB organization to own the team that plays out of their spring training facility. The Sox own their GCL team, the two Dominican teams that play out of Fort Myers and one of their A teams.

A level teams are a good investment. In the past they were often owned by people who wanted to get in the game. But they didn’t have a clue how to run a franchise. The group I bought into looked for A franchises that were run poorly, managed them better, raised their value and sold them. 

A level teams cost a lot less than AA and AAA teams.They're in smaller markets and more likely to be run poorly. I wish I could share the prospectus I was provided years ago about minor league baseball. It was really interesting.

The explanation regarding the value of Indy teams shows why the owners of teams that may be contracted from being affiliated are fighting back. 

RJM posted:

The Red Sox owning all but four means they own two. It would make sense for an MLB organization to own the team that plays out of their spring training facility. The Sox own their GCL team that plays out of Fort Myers.

Red Sox own 4.  Includes two Dominican teams.

TPM posted:

RJM posted:

The Red Sox owning all but four means they own two. It would make sense for an MLB organization to own the team that plays out of their spring training facility. The Sox own their GCL team that plays out of Fort Myers.

Red Sox own 4.  Includes two Dominican teams.

 I changed my post. I wasn’t thinking about Dominican teams. But the logic is the same. They’re run out of their spring training facility like their GCL team. I believe MLB teams have mostly always owned teams based out of their camp. I was thinking from short season A (NY-Penn/Northwest) and up. 

I don't know what you were thinking, I was just bringing to your attention that many ML teams do own their affiliates.

TPM posted:

I don't know what you were thinking, I was just bringing to your attention that many ML teams do own their affiliates.

 

I guess we’re looking at this from different angles. How many are owed that aren’t out of the spring training facility? I’m guessing the number is small.

It’s not a good investment above A ball. Besides, the MLB organization controls the players and coaching staff. The remaining expenses and promotions are on the minor league owners.

RJM posted:

TPM posted:

I don't know what you were thinking, I was just bringing to your attention that many ML teams do own their affiliates.

 

I guess we’re looking at this from different angles. How many are owed that aren’t out of the spring training facility? I’m guessing the number is small.

It’s not a good investment above A ball. Besides, the MLB organization controls the players and coaching staff. The remaining expenses and promotions are on the minor league owners.

You can Google it, just like I did.

It won’t change looking at it from different angles.

"When might recruiting go back to normal?"

Sorry bandera, but i got a chuckle out out of your question.   My initial response was recruiting EVER normal?  I guess by normal we're saying "predictable".  Nothing was ever predictable either , at least my sons journey. 

I do feel bad for todays recruits as this is just an awful, unpredictable situation.   Nobody has been through any thing like this before.  This is the toughest of recruiting times for sure.

Hate to say it, I don't think it will go back to the way it was until all the players that are getting an extra year are on the way out. That would mean around the 2024-2025 recruiting class. Slowly it will work its self out, up to that point. 

I also think coaches are learning how much of an asset video and social media are, and it will be used more. 

Just my opinion. 

I agree with Fenway; it's never "normal"! But I do think it will return to more of what it's been sooner than 2024 recruiting. The real hit will be on 2021's who will see verbal promises not come to fruition this November (although I believe they will know before November). I do think the 2021's the coach really wants will still get what was promised. Coaches will always take on new talent; this is because they still want (and have) to win. After the 2021 season coaches will know who can play and who can't plus they will lose players who can play to the draft (including COVID-19 sophomores). Coaches will always look to recruits because of the possibility of them becoming players. They know everything there is to know (or think they do) about their existing players and almost nothing about their recruits. They will err on the side of incoming recruits. Why? Because if those recruits don't work out they will continue recruiting the following years!

Before the pile-on occurs: not talking about 2020's here; that recruiting class is essentially complete (excluding COVID-19 fallout).

Pedaldad posted:

I think there may be a "new normal" as this will likely have a ripple effect and true evolution takes place amid cataclysmic events.   Things we could see (not really) as a ripple effect or fallout:

NCAA baseball becoming more of a true minor league for MLB, similar to College football and basketball for the NFL and NBA, respectively.  MLB owners would love to stop paying for HS prospects and failing minor league franchises.  They would love to continue to cut draft rounds indefinitely and contract their minor leagues.

NCAA baseball quality would go way up.  HS draftees would become far fewer because of increased speculation vs known college commodities.  NCAA coaches salaries would take a big jump.  Measurables - height, weight, bat speed, 60 times, fastball and exit velos would become even more important on scouting college prospects.

MLB would prefer to draft players a little later, their physicality and skill will be more predictable against better competition, and it would also delay their arbitration and free agency clocks until they have had more time to develop.  Ultimately getting the athlete's most productive years at a lesser price.

Ultimately, a shift in the NCAA season and to a larger roster with NCAA baseball replacing a portion of MiLB.  Could see an extended season later into the summer.  Adding an additional 15-20 games and ending mid July instead of mid June.

None of this is likely, but there will be a "new normal".

If they want to become a true minor league, they would need to switch to wood bat.

At some point recruiting from a numbers standpoint will return to normal.  The process of recruiting may not be the same for a long time.  I would expect for a period of time that traveling for baseball events will be more regional in turn causing recruiting classes at all places except P5 to be even more local/regional than they currently are.  How the MLB draft changes in the future will have an impact.  Will the number of players drafted + college FA signings ever get back to previous levels, forcing more players back into the collegiate pool?  What we should see for an extended period of time is a raised level of play across the college baseball landscape.  Every player/parent should probably get prepared for participating at a level "below" where you thought you were gonna land.  Which was already a level below where you thought you were gonna land.....

Um, I'm sure this is what MLB would prefer, but what about what colleges would prefer?  The colleges have kissed the NBA's ring all these years, that has resulted in a huge mess of recruiting violations, fake classes, fake students, and what have you.  They justify that because of revenues from basketball.  I can't believe they would go for the same thing in a non-revenue sport.

I think that if anything, the new normal is likely to go the other way, with colleges saying, you know what, maybe college sports should be sports played by students, without a gazillion extras (trainers, tutors, recruiting budgets, long-distance travel, etc.).  Especially in the next few years, if football revenue goes down (and face it, even if they allow fans, there will be fewer of them until a vaccine/treatment), and enrollments (especially of full-paying foreign students) also go down. 

Baseball's choice of college or minor leagues is usually touted as a GOOD thing by people who see all the problems with basketball.

anotherparent posted:

Um, I'm sure this is what MLB would prefer, but what about what colleges would prefer?  The colleges have kissed the NBA's ring all these years, that has resulted in a huge mess of recruiting violations, fake classes, fake students, and what have you.  They justify that because of revenues from basketball.  I can't believe they would go for the same thing in a non-revenue sport.

I think that if anything, the new normal is likely to go the other way, with colleges saying, you know what, maybe college sports should be sports played by students, without a gazillion extras (trainers, tutors, recruiting budgets, long-distance travel, etc.).  Especially in the next few years, if football revenue goes down (and face it, even if they allow fans, there will be fewer of them until a vaccine/treatment), and enrollments (especially of full-paying foreign students) also go down. 

Baseball's choice of college or minor leagues is usually touted as a GOOD thing by people who see all the problems with basketball.

Note, can't compare MLB with NBA, as for they have always paid players.  Ask John Wooden.

Here is a simple reason to why you can't compare the certain sports.

In High School, you will pay to see a regular season (post season) football or basketball game.    For baseball, you will not pay to see regular season game and the 1st couple of rounds of baseball playoffs.

Note, I understand there are certain regular season high school showcase games that can pull off charging, especially if they are at a stadium.

? I don’t understand.  

We pay for all high school scrimmages and games pre, during, and post season.... Even more for every travel ball tourney or event.....

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

"In High School, you will pay to see a regular season (post season) football or basketball game.    For baseball, you will not pay to see regular season game and the 1st couple of rounds of baseball playoffs."

Note, I understand there are certain regular season high school showcase games that can pull off charging, especially if they are at a stadium.

I paid a lot of money to see 3 sons play for their HS, including baseball, at the gate over the years!

Gee, I wish! We pay to play in our county ($150) and $6 per game, $7 for District playoff games. I believe the game fee increases at Regional games, definitely at State games.

ABSORBER posted:

Gee, I wish! We pay to play in our county ($150) and $6 per game, $7 for District playoff games. I believe the game fee increases at Regional games, definitely at State games.

By the way, that's $150 per sport per season.

Theses starting to be talk college football won’t start in time. It will be hard to pin down what’s normal for any sport until fall sports are back to normal.

CatsPop posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

"In High School, you will pay to see a regular season (post season) football or basketball game.    For baseball, you will not pay to see regular season game and the 1st couple of rounds of baseball playoffs."

Note, I understand there are certain regular season high school showcase games that can pull off charging, especially if they are at a stadium.

I paid a lot of money to see 3 sons play for their HS, including baseball, at the gate over the years!

Again, it depends on the area and the schools involved  In South Jersey, unless it was a weekend tournament or a prime matchup, we never paid.

Example, Bishop Eustace runs a  1 or 2 day tournament with 3 other elite teams (eg. Malvern prep, St. Aug Prep and a wildcard).  No charge.

If they have a match e.g Glouchester Catholic vs xxx at the River Shark field, you will have to pay.

Glouchester Catholic vs St. Joseph (Montevale) is considered prime.

ABSORBER posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Gee, I wish! We pay to play in our county ($150) and $6 per game, $7 for District playoff games. I believe the game fee increases at Regional games, definitely at State games.

By the way, that's $150 per sport per season.

And where do you live?

CatsPop posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

"In High School, you will pay to see a regular season (post season) football or basketball game.    For baseball, you will not pay to see regular season game and the 1st couple of rounds of baseball playoffs."

Note, I understand there are certain regular season high school showcase games that can pull off charging, especially if they are at a stadium.

I paid a lot of money to see 3 sons play for their HS, including baseball, at the gate over the years!

In 4 years, I paid for less than 8 games. 

2 - at the Trenton stadium

2 - State Semis and Finals

1 - at riversharks to see GC vs a team from North Jersey (who had the lefty stud), I forget his name

Note, no out of pocket cost for home regular season games, even playoff games

Most all baseball in the south you will have to pay.  In Missouri, we paid about half the time.  In the Southeast, lived in Ga, Tn, and SC went to games in NC, Fl, Al, Miss., we always paid to get in games. 

PitchingFan posted:

Most all baseball in the south you will have to pay.  In Missouri, we paid about half the time.  In the Southeast, lived in Ga, Tn, and SC went to games in NC, Fl, Al, Miss., we always paid to get in games. 

Was that always the case or something that has occurred in the last 10 to 15 years with the significant increase in travel baseball, showcases, etc.?

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

ABSORBER posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Gee, I wish! We pay to play in our county ($150) and $6 per game, $7 for District playoff games. I believe the game fee increases at Regional games, definitely at State games.

By the way, that's $150 per sport per season.

And where do you live?

Virginia. Paying to watch an event is nothing new. I grew up in Virginia and people paid entrance fees to watch HS sports when I played, er, ah, 35 years ago...

The fee to just play a sport (per season) is fairly new and has increased quite a bit in the last 10 years. Perhaps because local governments know people will pay it.

It has always been that way since I was a kid.  I thought it was crazy strange when we moved to Missouri and they did not charge for high school baseball.  The problem there was many schools played in open complexes where it would have been hard to collect.  Our parents pitched a fit when we went anywhere that charged for a game.  I was so used to it that I didn't think twice.  Problem was sometimes you did not know which did and didn't.

ABSORBER posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

ABSORBER posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Gee, I wish! We pay to play in our county ($150) and $6 per game, $7 for District playoff games. I believe the game fee increases at Regional games, definitely at State games.

By the way, that's $150 per sport per season.

And where do you live?

Virginia. Paying to watch an event is nothing new. I grew up in Virginia and people paid entrance fees to watch HS sports when I played, er, ah, 35 years ago...

The fee to just play a sport (per season) is fairly new and has increased quite a bit in the last 10 years. Perhaps because local governments know people will pay it.

I don't have the data,  probably south of DC have been paying.  Use to go to VA Sport Complex in Ruther Glen for travel. 

Our taxes are high, so unless there were some stud teams playing, we would complain about additional cost.

Note, Long Island might be the same as the South.

PitchingFan posted:

It has always been that way since I was a kid.  I thought it was crazy strange when we moved to Missouri and they did not charge for high school baseball.  The problem there was many schools played in open complexes where it would have been hard to collect.  Our parents pitched a fit when we went anywhere that charged for a game.  I was so used to it that I didn't think twice.  Problem was sometimes you did not know which did and didn't.

In NYC, we only paid for football and basketball. Maybe a big track and field event.

New Jersey is a long state (North, Central and South), thus it might different based on area.   South Jersey (near Philly) normally you don't pay.  Central is strange, mostly associated with the Jersey Shore, North is mostly aligned with NYC.

In GA, my experience is you pay. Freshman, JV, V.  Matters not, you pay.