When You Excel at D2 Offensively

@Consultant posted:

TPM;

yes, that is correct. A few [quite a few} years ago a scout friend and I watched our local D-2 play and during the game I asked what was his opinion of the team's #1 hitter, who had 15 HR's in 34 games and the LF fence was 340' and alleys at 365'. CF was 404'.

The pro scout related that with wood bats the majority of the HR's would be outs at the "warning track". The majority of scouts take a 40' deduction of HR distance with players using metal.

This was one of the reasons I created the Area Code games in 1987 using wood bats.

Bob

what would the conversion be today, wit BBCOR?

@mattys posted:

what would the conversion be today, wit BBCOR?

Should be less than 40' now, for sure. I don't think BBCOR metal is adding much distance. More so, it helps with balls that aren't barreled.

The impact "sound" will be like hitting with a "rolled newspaper"!!! See my earlier message the "eyes of a pro scout"

Scouts will always have their projections. With the reduction of Minor League teams there will be fewer pro scouts and I expect College Coaches will revise their player selection strategy.

There are many opportunity's for a new style baseball event.

Bob

I think two factors have made pro ball even harder in the last years:

1) velo

Just a couple years ago the average FB was like 90 and as long you could hit 91 consistently you could get by even if high 90s overwhelmed you, at least at lower levels. But nowadays even in rookie ball you will see 95 every game. Not every pitcher but at least one pitcher per game.

That means you need to be able to hit mid 90s consistently.

2) breaking balls

Fastball usage in mlb consistently went down the last years. Nowadays many pitchers throw less than 50% fastballs. That means that the good old spit on breaking balls and hit fastballs will work less because if you do that you will see get me over curve, coupled with chest high fastballs and then you have to hit the off speed stuff.

Still nobody hits a great curve and you better hit a good fastball if you see it but you at least need to be able to hit the get me over curve that many pitchers now use with one strike or you will hit in 2 strike counts all the time.

I think  this is a big difference to college ball, in college a good approach can mask weaknesses if you are able to consistently square up upper 80s and don't chase all the junk but pro ball pitchers have the stuff to expose that and that upper 80s "bread and butter" fastball over the plate will be a rare thing in pro ball.

That means the pro scout who sees you producing well against 86-90 fastballs over the plate has to decide whether that will scale against 96 and mid 80s sliders.

I have coached several players who went to D-II schools who then played professionally.  In fact, one of them broke the NCAA record for hits in a career with 356 hits in his career.  Although that record has now been broken, it is substantial.   Ironically, he didn't play in milb but did play independent league ball.  One of these players was drafted as a CF.  His arm was outstanding and they made him into a pitcher.  He was in the Baltimore organization and was in the trade between Baltimore and Chicago for Sammy Sosa.

Keep in mind that there are several reasons why players have played D-II including easier acceptance into schools and financial reasons.   It isn't as easy as simply comparing D-I and D-II and, as I have mentioned before, there are D-II teams/programs that are better than some D-I teams/programs. 

Another assumption:

He was offered to play, or as a free agent, but decided to take his $85,000 starting salary job offer instead. 

Thinking about this some more.

Totally agree that 95 is 95 whether it's D1 or D2 and that's why you see D2 pitchers go pro.

That said, with the advanced metrics and devices available today, measuring things like bat speed, exit velo, etc., if we ever get to the day where MLB starts doing combines, maybe more D2 position players will have more interest from the big league teams? Just like 95 is 95, an exit velo of 110 off the hack measured by hit trax is the same whether it's from a D1 or D2 player.

Might see combines this year with the later draft.

In general, more D2/D3 players who go to pro ball are Pitchers & Catchers.

The best way for a D2 or D3 position player to get into pro ball is to find a way into a very good to great summer league, and absolutely rake in that summer league against pro prospects.  Tough to do, as most of the best summer leagues are filled with D1 hitters.

Top hitters against plus pitching will have good rapsodo hitting scores or hit trax metrics but it is not always true the other way around. 

@Francis7 posted:

Thinking about this some more. Totally agree that 95 is 95 whether it's D1 or D2 and that's why you see D2 pitchers go pro.

That said, with the advanced metrics and devices available today, measuring things like bat speed, exit velo, etc., if we ever get to the day where MLB starts doing combines, maybe more D2 position players will have more interest from the big league teams? Just like 95 is 95, an exit velo of 110 off the hack measured by hit trax is the same whether it's from a D1 or D2 player.

It's not always great to be hear, but there are levels to college baseball. Starting with the SEC and working your way down to Cal Tech. D2 is a tier or two below the highest levels. Now there is nothing wrong with that, and there are exceptions but generally speaking it wouldn't be inaccurate to say that D2 is not the highest level of baseball. There aren't less pro prospects than D1 and JC baseball because "they play D2", there are less pro players coming out of D2 baseball because there is less pro talent at that level.

Teams have workouts, scouts talk and follow talent. Do you just have combines for every D2/3 team because there may be some hidden talent somewhere in there?

Things like exit velo, bat speed and hit trax are all useless if you can't hit pro pitching. Telling me how far or how hard you can hit a ball doesn't mean squat if you can't piece up 95 on a daily basis. When you go to a non D1 school, or even a lower level D1 school you have less chances to prove you can keep up with the pitching, and while there are some misses for sure, pro baseball can live without them. To be a pro player you need to hit, and you need to hit at a high level often in order to advance. So if conference play isn't getting it done, you need to do damage in a top summer league

@Francis7 posted:

Thinking about this some more.

Totally agree that 95 is 95 whether it's D1 or D2 and that's why you see D2 pitchers go pro.

That said, with the advanced metrics and devices available today, measuring things like bat speed, exit velo, etc., if we ever get to the day where MLB starts doing combines, maybe more D2 position players will have more interest from the big league teams? Just like 95 is 95, an exit velo of 110 off the hack measured by hit trax is the same whether it's from a D1 or D2 player.

Yeah definitely, i think with trackman a truly outstanding game EV might get you noticed.

However you still need to hit the ball and a high EV against 85 might not translate.

But if the EV  is really plus plus (115+) and comes with performance, a good swing and approach it might get you noticed.

I wonder how the shorter draft and smaller milb will influence that. I guess less "org guys" will be needed in the future and it will be even harder for non top d1 conference guys and lower divisions.

Question will the MLB miss the Pete Rose in the future? To scout a future Pete Rose will require  pro scout with FBI talent.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Question will the MLB miss the Pete Rose in the future? To scout a future Pete Rose will require  pro scout with FBI talent.

Bob

How about Hall of Fame Yogi Berra? Listed at 5-7, probably five six. Bad body. Of course, he was before the draft. But, today, would he play college ball? Ever get drafted? But, he could hit. And a baseball IQ off the charts.

@Dominik85 posted:

I wonder how the shorter draft and smaller milb will influence that. I guess less "org guys" will be needed in the future and it will be even harder for non top d1 conference guys and lower divisions.

That is probably the plan. Shame because some of those fringe organizational guys become good future coaches.

Scouts are always looking for talent. It's their job to find it before someone else does.

Things are changing, be patient.

FWIW, my son's Cardinal teammate attended a D2. You can Google him or go to wkipedia, see Matt Adams aka Big City.   

@PABaseball posted:

When you go to a non D1 school, or even a lower level D1 school you have less chances to prove you can keep up with the pitching,   So if conference play isn't getting it done, you need to do damage in a top summer league.

Totally agree PA Baseball.

@Francis7 posted:

How about Hall of Fame Yogi Berra? Listed at 5-7, probably five six. Bad body. Of course, he was before the draft. But, today, would he play college ball? Ever get drafted? But, he could hit. And a baseball IQ off the charts.

You have to compare athletes against their contemporaries.  Nutrition changes over time, workout routines change...  They don't smoke in the dugout anymore or drink in the locker room.  But if Yogi Berra was around today, maybe he has better nutrition and workout routine and is 5'-9" and looks and plays a lot like Pudge Rodriguez and ends up in the HOF.

Height/size is a disadvantage, but a skilled hitter with plus fielding skills will still get looks. Nick Madrigal is doing well in the modern era of recruiting. I am sure there are other examples.