When should a kid expect to start getting offers?
For my 2022 son, it started the the summer before his junior year. But, that was when the pandemic was really bad (summer 2020) and maybe coaches had more time on their hands?
If you just completed your junior year and you are in the class of 2023 and you have zero offers so far, is it too late for you? Even if you are thinking D3?
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Historically speaking - this would be the time where 75% of the kids would start committing.
I don't think it's too late, especially for a D3. That typically happens further down the line in the summer season (Aug-Oct) when D1s start going ghost on the fringe players.
One committed as a sophomore in HS the other in July 2021 heading into senior year. Both D1
I would imagine the timeline is going to get pushed back for most D1s with the portal.
Any chance the portal and Juco guys push a lot of 2023 D1s and D2s to D3 and that pushes out the fringy 2023 D3 prospects?
I mean it's possible but I wouldn't say likely. D3 is the level that is going to be least impacted by the portal. They can always just take as many guys as they want. So recruiting will go on normally, I would just expect rosters to get bigger if guys wanted to transfer in.
I don't think the bottom half of D1 will be impacted like the top half will, I just don't see transfers heading their way. My guess is that recruiting would stay the same for 150 and down. Kids will still be committing summer heading into senior year. I would imagine that it would be a better recruit than usual. The kid who might typically commit to a top 100 program now doesn't have the offer he may have in the past. Ends up at a lower level D1. Fringe D1 player probably just goes D3 now.
Either way, it's definitely not too late. I would just expect more talent outside the top 150 D1s than usual.
It all depends on the level of player. P5's are getting younger and younger. Son got first one from D1 before freshman year. P5's began to come in after freshman year. The lower the level of play the closer to graduation. That is not meant to be offensive but reality. But also realize that there will be some P5's that will give offers as late as this summer to fill voids. Not as many as in the past because of the portal. Easier to fill from portal than trying to figure out how to manipulate a kid from one level of commitment to another.
With Covid and the portal, I don't think any of our experiences really apply to what is happening right now. I know a couple of good 2023's who aren't even talking to coaches. These guys would have been fringe D1's when my son was recruited. I'm sure it will work out but It might be later or a lower level than it would have in the past.
FWIW, we know one 2022 who reclassified to 2023 under the bridge year rule in NJ because he wanted to play another year to try and get more/better offers. At the last minute, this month, he switched back to a 2022 and went D3. My guess is that he realized it was the best offer he could get and waiting to 2023 wasn't going to benefit him.
My son got his first offer winter of his Sophomore year.
Nobody wants to hear this. But the reality is that right now almost all top 50 D1 baseball programs don’t WANT or NEED incoming HS freshmen.
They may say they do. But they don’t. They make take a few. But they don’t want to. Top layer of D1 baseball doesn’t want to spend time developing young players. Why? Because they don’t have to. There is an endless supply of experienced and proven players in two places - the transfer portal & the JuCo ranks.
I know there are some outlier programs that aren’t doing what I described. Not yet anyway. But I suspect that’s likely to change. Watch what happens over the next year and see if the number of outlier great programs that develop younger players are still operating that way.
Of course all this spells trouble for all but the top 1-5% of HS players.
@Francis7 posted:Any chance the portal and Juco guys push a lot of 2023 D1s and D2s to D3 and that pushes out the fringy 2023 D3 prospects?
Yes. There is a good chance of this although I’m not sure what constitutes a lot. I would argue that the MLB permanently shortening the draft (especially the 2020 draft at only 5 rounds) and reducing MiLB levels poured gasoline on the fire. I think that things will normalize a bit in a few years but that the caliber of players at all levels of college and at lower levels of the minors will be permanently higher than it was prior to 2020.
@adbono posted:Nobody wants to hear this. But the reality is that right now almost all top 50 D1 baseball programs don’t WANT or NEED incoming HS freshmen.
Shockingly, adbono and I agree on something!
@adbono posted:Nobody wants to hear this. But the reality is that right now almost all top 50 D1 baseball programs don’t WANT or NEED incoming HS freshmen. They may say they do. But they don’t. They make take a few. But they don’t want to.
With 17 (and counting) in the portal right now + the upcoming draft Vanderbilt will have to. And they better hope their HS commits make it to campus. 4 of the 19 probably won't make it. The underlined was a wild sentence to type out. 19 commits in one class.
But you are correct - they don't want to.
@adbono posted:Nobody wants to hear this. But the reality is that right now almost all top 50 D1 baseball programs don’t WANT or NEED incoming HS freshmen.
They may say they do. But they don’t. They make take a few. But they don’t want to. Top layer of D1 baseball doesn’t want to spend time developing young players. Why? Because they don’t have to. There is an endless supply of experienced and proven players in two places - the transfer portal & the JuCo ranks.
I know there are some outlier programs that aren’t doing what I described. Not yet anyway. But I suspect that’s likely to change. Watch what happens over the next year and see if the number of outlier great programs that develop younger players are still operating that way.
Of course all this spells trouble for all but the top 1-5% of HS players.
There are schools right now cutting signed Freshman before they even get to campus, its crazy.
@Master P posted:There are schools right now cutting signed Freshman before they even get to campus, its crazy.
Yup. Heard about 2 over the weekend. Both cut at Texas Tech
@adbono posted:Yup. Heard about 2 over the weekend. Both cut at Texas Tech
I heard about the bloodbath at Arkansas and Mizzou
@Master P posted:I heard about the bloodbath at Arkansas and Mizzou
Goes on at all the 4 year schools that are notorious for over recruiting
@adbono posted:Nobody wants to hear this. But the reality is that right now almost all top 50 D1 baseball programs don’t WANT or NEED incoming HS freshmen.
Can you name those top 50, and do you have proof do you talk to the coaches, have you sat in on exit meetings during these discussions? I haven't but I have a good idea in general what's discussed.
One point missed with the draft. The change in the date and reclassifying has really hurt many programs specifically this year due to players turning 21 in their sophmore year. That's why you see a lot more in the portal than ever before. Coaches have decisions to make, it's ugly at times but if you can't commit to an answer and you are not an impact player, you may find yourself out.
Some coaches are pretty good at dealing with that problem, some aren't.
JMO
@PTWood posted:Yes. There is a good chance of this although I’m not sure what constitutes a lot. I would argue that the MLB permanently shortening the draft (especially the 2020 draft at only 5 rounds) and reducing MiLB levels poured gasoline on the fire. I think that things will normalize a bit in a few years but that the caliber of players at all levels of college and at lower levels of the minors will be permanently higher than it was prior to 2020.
Completely agree. This will still be around long after all of the players with an extra year due to covid are gone. 42 minor league affiliates were contracted in 2021. That's 1,000+ affiliated roster spots that no longer exist.
And it's clear MLB wants to contract MiLB even further as it was one of the asks during the lockout negotiations. Manfred looks at the NFL and NBA and how they outsource almost all of their player development and wants to do the same for MLB. Yes baseball development is different but Manfred is not a baseball guy he's a labor lawyer and MiLB contraction is the obvious solution to the bad press and lawsuits MLB gets for the low pay and working conditions in MiLB.
https://community.hsbaseballwe...06#74515014876853906
How does this work? Cutting freshman before they get to campus? Doesn't the school have to honor the NLI? The financial agreement?
@IKETBD posted:https://community.hsbaseballwe...06#74515014876853906
How does this work? Cutting freshman before they get to campus? Doesn't the school have to honor the NLI? The financial agreement?
The school has to honor the financial commitment terms. They don’t have to honor a roster spot. At the D1 level most kids who don’t have a roster spot will transfer. They want to get on the field.
@IKETBD posted:https://community.hsbaseballwe...06#74515014876853906
How does this work? Cutting freshman before they get to campus? Doesn't the school have to honor the NLI? The financial agreement?
"Hey Billy, your speed is down and you're not really developing the way we thought you would. You're still welcome to come to ______ but I don't really see you in our future plans. You're welcome to come to campus, but I think you would be better off going somewhere you could get more playing time. Happy to make a few phone calls for you."
"Hey Billy, listen with covid and the draft we have a jam packed roster and don't have anymore money to give out. I'm sorry but you'd be better off going to this juco for a year and we can reevaluate."
Seems like we have this conversation every year about this time. The conversations go exactly as @PABaseball described. If you choose to stay your baseball playing is over.
Now is the time where someone usually tries to make the argument that they can enforce the financial end of the contract AND force the team to keep the player on the roster. You can’t.
A very talented freshman that was number 2 in his state and up to 96 mph got a call yesterday (a month after exit interviews) while at summer ball, and told to go to the portal. 6’4, 205. The definition of protectable but they aren’t going to develop him. Ugh.
@baseballhs posted:A very talented freshman that was number 2 in his state and up to 96 mph got a call yesterday (a month after exit interviews) while at summer ball, and told to go to the portal. 6’4, 205. The definition of protectable but they aren’t going to develop him. Ugh.
Ugh is right. I wish that HS players would really take a look at what’s happening at big D1 programs. But so many don’t. They are blinded by the bright lights and dreams of glamour. With very few exceptions (and that applies to both schools and players) now is not the time to go D1 straight out of HS. Now is the time to find a different way to get there - if that’s your goal.
Or if you are a top prospect, you go to a weaker D1 where they will play you. Most of the kids this is hurting didn’t have a warning. They had already signed or made it to campus before the transfer portal became the way of the future. Add in COVID and the smaller draft, it’s a sH*tshow. A lot of really talented kids are gonna have their prime years taken away. What they thought they were choosing by going to school ( a brotherhood, a commitment to school and teammates) is nothing more than trade agreements between highly paid coaches. Once again, the kids lose.
@baseballhs posted:A very talented freshman that was number 2 in his state and up to 96 mph got a call yesterday (a month after exit interviews) while at summer ball, and told to go to the portal. 6’4, 205. The definition of protectable but they aren’t going to develop him. Ugh.
He must have been crazy wild. Nobody and I mean nobody cuts 96 with any decent control. Had to be total lack of control, attitude or something. Or he was really 91-93 and had touched 96 once.
He got 4 innings. How can you determine a kid in 4 innings? Our friend who is in the minors was at a game where he pitched and said, man I wish I could pitch like that. My son also said his stuff was nasty. I think the reality that you have at Tennessee is not the reality most places. And no he sat 94-96.
I understand spring exit interviews for current kids on the team. I understand that some never make it out of fall ball. I was flabbergasted this past November when kids got their offers pulled literally days before signing. But if you signed your NLI and financial package in November, and you have athletic scholarship $, coaches are still pulling roster positions? Two months before school starts?
@IKETBD posted:I understand spring exit interviews for current kids on the team. I understand that some never make it out of fall ball. I was flabbergasted this past November when kids got their offers pulled literally days before signing. But if you signed your NLI and financial package in November, and you have athletic scholarship $, coaches are still pulling roster positions? Two months before school starts?
Yes. And this isn’t the first year it has happened
@baseballhs posted:He got 4 innings. How can you determine a kid in 4 innings? Our friend who is in the minors was at a game where he pitched and said, man I wish I could pitch like that. My son also said his stuff was nasty. I think the reality that you have at Tennessee is not the reality most places. And no he sat 94-96.
To think someone will skip on a kid with his projection. Scary sad
@IKETBD posted:I understand spring exit interviews for current kids on the team. I understand that some never make it out of fall ball. I was flabbergasted this past November when kids got their offers pulled literally days before signing. But if you signed your NLI and financial package in November, and you have athletic scholarship $, coaches are still pulling roster positions? Two months before school starts?
Most coaches will bring in a better player at any time regardless of the timing. It’s about winning. It’s not about what players the coach wins with.
This is my third son. I can't imagine any school giving up a kid sitting 94-96 with stuff unless something is off. I'm guessing either coach and player had a disagreement or there was some issues for him to let him go. Some times it is just not a fit. I've seen kids I've coached and some that were on son's teams that the coach did not get along with the player. Some times it is personality and some times it is attitude.
But I have another side to it. Would you rather your son not be told he doesn't have a future or a coach be honest with him about his future with the team? I know it is not what is expected but I have always been more impressed with coaches who were honest up front about a player.
I have a player that was told the summer before his freshman year that he would still have a spot but that he would be redshirted his freshman year. The parents and the player were frustrated and said the coach lied but mine was always that he was honest. He told the player upfront his role and wanted to make sure that the player and family knew full expectations. He changed schools and the new school redshirted him.
@PitchingFan posted:This is my third son. I can't imagine any school giving up a kid sitting 94-96 with stuff unless something is off. I'm guessing either coach and player had a disagreement or there was some issues for him to let him go. Some times it is just not a fit. I've seen kids I've coached and some that were on son's teams that the coach did not get along with the player. Some times it is personality and some times it is attitude.
But I have another side to it. Would you rather your son not be told he doesn't have a future or a coach be honest with him about his future with the team? I know it is not what is expected but I have always been more impressed with coaches who were honest up front about a player.
I have a player that was told the summer before his freshman year that he would still have a spot but that he would be redshirted his freshman year. The parents and the player were frustrated and said the coach lied but mine was always that he was honest. He told the player upfront his role and wanted to make sure that the player and family knew full expectations. He changed schools and the new school redshirted him.
The grass always looks greener on the other side of the fence. Until you take a close look and realize it’s Astro turf.
@baseballmom01 posted:Shockingly, adbono and I agree on something!
Was bound to happen sooner or later
@PitchingFan posted:But I have another side to it. Would you rather your son not be told he doesn't have a future or a coach be honest with him about his future with the team? I know it is not what is expected but I have always been more impressed with coaches who were honest up front about a player.
I think the point is that kids who are capable of having a future in the program are not getting the chance. Kids who may not contribute right away but could be everyday players as a junior are being cut after year 1.
The bigger issue is the kids are being sold on development, positional coaches, etc and then essentially getting a series of 6 month trials.
We saw it on a post a while back. Coach loves loves loves the kid. Kid isn't playing, coach says you'll get your turn. Kid isn't traveling. Season ends, we don't see you in the plans. 1 year of eligibility burned over 6ABs.
But we also see the tables turned. Drew Bianco is in the portal from LSU. Will he go to daddy at Ole Miss?
@PitchingFan posted:But we also see the tables turned. Drew Bianco is in the portal from LSU. Will he go to daddy at Ole Miss?
Who could blame him? LSU is clearly throwing out lots of money to put together a dream team.
@baseballhs posted:He got 4 innings. How can you determine a kid in 4 innings? Our friend who is in the minors was at a game where he pitched and said, man I wish I could pitch like that. My son also said his stuff was nasty. I think the reality that you have at Tennessee is not the reality most places. And no he sat 94-96.
I agree with Pitchingfan, coaches don't cut players who sit 94-96 unless there is an issue. Does he pitch or does he throw, is he wild? Does he take instruction well. What was the fall like? How were his grades?
I know of a player, a few actually, who have great fall practices and lose it when season starts. This is not uncommon for both hitters and pitchers but most seem to adjust by the time it really counts.
Few freshman are successful at first, no matter what school or conference they attend. Lots of work goes into preparing players for February and continues throughout the season. Perhaps something else was going on. But then again I understand that not a lot of development is going on in that part of the country.
If a program turns over its staff, that's where a problem might lie. It's easier to just go into the portal. In this case, it just may be that the player will get picked up and a coach will prepare him to be successful. It's not always a bad thing. Some players do better moving to a different home.
We have to stop assuming that every program is doing the same thing. I think UT is more like many programs in college baseball in developing players. Every program has young players not getting enough playing time but when called upon most rise to the occassion, others do not.
I will use my player as the perfect example. He came to school ranked 9th best freshman in the country. Had a great fall. Come start of the season, he couldn't hit the side of a barn. Seriously. I am not kidding! It finally came altogether for him in May so this is not uncommon for young players. The college game is just different than HS, college different than milb, etc.
As far as players being cut before they arrive, in some programs the coaches keep track of the players development senior year. And some programs have prospect camps including the commits right before the NLI signing. If they have not kept up with their progress either in baseball or in the classroom, well they could get asked to decommit. I don't think that happens much but the expectations are laid out at the time the player commits. I learned of quite a few programs that do that. Sometimes there is an issue that occurred during senior year. And then there are issues that occur first freshman college year.
I will continue to disagree because I’m watching it happen. Guys who had scouts at every hs game, guys who D1 baseball says schools are lucky they got to campus are being cut. Why? They’ve got bigger scholarships and they can cut them and pull guys out of the portal who are ready to go. I’m not assuming all programs are the same but I know a lot of kids in top 25 programs and it is very common. Maybe not 4 years ago, maybe not even 3, started last year. Full swing this year. Believe or not but I’m watching it happen.
3015 and still another day to enter.
