Which is dumber?

I think Bay is dumber because the proposed contract is supposedly so back loaded that he's actually making less money in present value. I think he just got his pride hurt so he's accepting a deal from a team he really didn't want to go to. Mark my words he is going to be miserable when his skills don't play that great in that gigantic outfield and the Mets fans start getting on his case.
In my book you look a little greedy in these times when 60 million for 4 years isn't enough. He plays the game right and seems to give 100% but having said that he's a fairly one dimensional player. I think Boston will be better off waiting until next year's free agent class. Carl Crawford--the money's coming your way next year big time!
I saw a couple of Mets fans defending the signing by saying that he'll have the greatest centerfielder in baseball to take up his defensive slack. Yea, that kind of thinking is a good reason to throw away 65 million.

Full disclosure: I'm a HUGE Red Sox fan.

Bay made a big mistake here. He'll probably see reduced HR production, and by extension reduced RBI production. I'll guess 10 HRs and 20-25 RBIs. Citifield will also expose some defense weakness in Bay.

Sox in good shape. Cameron very similar offensive production. Improved defense. Shorter contract. More roster flexibility.

first off, anyone that get's paid a million or more for playing a game. can't be called dumb.


i'm guessing boston still feels the sting of over paying for j.d.drew.and with the economy being what it is they decided to be frugal with bay. while he had good numbers he's no manny.

to me bay never seemed comfortable with the media,he just went out and did his work. who wouldn't want that in a player?

they have alway's said playing in boston is tough, maybe it just wasn't good for him. it's not pitsburg.

good for him he got what he wanted. i wish him luck.

20DAD

If he thought playing in front of the Boston media was tough how do you think he will do in front of the NY media? Add to this that the Mets have been a big flop after spending tons of dollars.

I think there might be a little pressure on Bay to save the Mets?

quote:

Cameron very similar offensive production...

HUH...?

Bay AVERAGES 10 more HR's per year (33 to 23), 25 more RBI's (107 to 82), AVERAGES 30 points higher in BA (.280 to .250), AVERAGES 110 points higher in OPS (.896 to .788), AVERAGES 71 points higher in SLG%...

The only thing Cameron is similar AVERAGE-WISE to Bay in is Strikeouts (159 to 157), with way less offensive production... Plus Bay is 5 years YOUNGER than Cameron...

Cameron is an outstanding Centerfielder... how he will handle the Green Monster day-in and day-out as a Leftfielder is still to be seen...

I may have exaggerated my impression of Cameron's offensive production. See original disclosure. Read this blog post and you'll see why Cameron is a safe bet to be a better player than Bay for the Red Sox.

Another thought. Win now & win in the future. Bay & Wagner (both on the downhill side of their careers) turned into 4 high draft picks (top 50) in June draft.

quote:

Originally posted by dbg_fan:
I may have exaggerated my impression of Cameron's offensive production. See original disclosure. Read this blog post and you'll see why Cameron is a safe bet to be a better player than Bay for the Red Sox.

Another thought. Win now & win in the future. Bay & Wagner (both on the downhill side of their careers) turned into 4 high draft picks (top 50) in June draft.

I believe Theo Epstein is the kind of GM that buys into the equations in the blog article.

Good luck to Jason. All he did was come into a tough situation, shut up and hit. The length of the contract may well have been more of an issue for the Sox then the money. They feel like they will have one or two young players ready to take over in the outfield in a couple of years, plus they felt like they needed to get better defensively and LF was one spot they had a chance to do that.

Jacoby may well play left and hitting at Fenway in the Sox lineup should boost Cameron's power #'s. With their staff the Sox will be fine and will be re-loading with the draft picks.

quote:

Originally posted by dbg_fan:
Full disclosure: I'm a HUGE Red Sox fan.

Bay made a big mistake here. He'll probably see reduced HR production, and by extension reduced RBI production. I'll guess 10 HRs and 20-25 RBIs. Citifield will also expose some defense weakness in Bay.

Sox in good shape. Cameron very similar offensive production. Improved defense. Shorter contract. More roster flexibility.

Agreed. His game doesn't translate as well to cavernous Citi Field, Park, whatever. He hit a bunch of 340 foot homers over the Green Monster that will be long outs in NY. He did OK covering tiny LF in Fenway. He doesn't have the wheels or arm for a big outfield, though.

If he hit .300 I'd miss him. He might be the new Mo Vaughn for the Mets.

From a public image standpoint Bay is a great guy. The fans loved him because he stepped in for Manny and produced. I think if Bay had a crystal ball and knew what his deal would be with the Mets he would have resigned with the Sox. Regardless of leaving the Sox, signing with the Mets probably is not a great decision. However, once the Sox turned in another direction it may have been his only legitimate choice.

I wish Bay well. But I see a .270, 25, 80 guy in CitiField who tires of the fans quickly after the media and they tire of a production level below what they expected.

quote:

They feel like they will have one or two young players ready to take over in the outfield in a couple of years

The #3 and 4 prospects in the system (Kalish and Reddick) were in AA ball last year. Reddick got a little time on the Sox. Reddick is rated a mid 2010 callup. Kalish is rated a late 2010. The #5 and 6 prospects are first basemen in AA and A ball projected to come up in 2011 and 2012. This may make for the lack of overreaction at the top regarding left and corner infield.

I think the Red Sox made a good financial move by not tying themselves to Bay for four or five years. Bay may go out there and give you a good year or twoon the contract but by the last couple of years you'll be regretting the signing. Use Cameron as a stop gap and get a productive "athlete" like Crawford to play left and leave Ellsbury in center for now, letting him go only in a trade for someone with true power like Gonzalez.

I loved jbay when he was a Pirate.........there must be some perverse pleasure in making the organization that drafted you and traded you away pay you the big bucks....

that or he has some lingering affection/loyalty to his original organization....

either way best of luck to him...........

quote:

Originally posted by piaa_ump:
I loved jbay when he was a Pirate.........there must be some perverse pleasure in making the organization that drafted you and traded you away pay you the big bucks....

that or he has some lingering affection/loyalty to his original organization....

either way best of luck to him...........

PIAA: Bay was drafted by the Expos. How does this all fit together?

well that blows my theory out of the water....for some reason I thought he was a Met product...

The Mets are getting a good player.........when he was here with the Pirates, he always played hard and was an asset in the community.....he will always be one of those players I will follow no matter what team he plays for.....

I am a slight Sox fan as you can tell by my name on here . I think Bay signed with the Mets because they offered the vested 5th year which could make it a 5yr $80 million deal. Sort of makes it like a football contract where it looks good on paper but you rarely ever see the actual contract being fufilled.

I really liked Bay and wish that they could have signed him during the season. I too believe that had he known what the market would have been like he'd have signed during the all-Star break. He was an adequate fielder with good solid production. He easily could have slid into the DH roll in his last couple of years if needed. Not many better #5 hitters out there production wise. He was a very good player and did excellent here in boston. I wish him the best but agree that his numbers will probably drop next year due to the ball park.

Sox will pick up a left fielder next year unless Hermedia finally blossoms big time next season (doubtful but who knows??). Key will be a healthy pitching staff.

If the Mets did a better job of drafting and developing a better farm system, they wouldn't have to spend so much for aging guys.
JMO.

I would not term Bay an aging player !!!!

And they had a solid farm sustem , Wright, Reyes for example but began trading away the young players for some odd reason

Neither. The Mets overpaid for Bay, but Bay would be a fool to not take the $5 million more if he could get it.

I have confidence that the Red Sox know what they are doing more than the Mets.

The only thing that Bay could be called dumb for is if he cared about his stats....he left a park where the LF wall is 280' to go to a pitcher's park.

JB will be 36 at the end of his contract.
That makes him an aging player. IMO.

TPM


Get real please---the guy is just 31 years of age--in his prime and had an all star season last year --that ain't aging

quote:

Originally posted by TRhit:
TPM


Get real please---the guy is just 31 years of age--in his prime and had an all star season last year --that ain't aging

That's my opinion, at 31 most players are on the downhill, and besides that's not my opinion. Large part of their contracts are based on production.

Also IMO, the Bosox are a lot better at this than the Mets.

I don't think TPM is arguing that Bay is old, but rather that he's already toward the typical downhill portion of an MLB career (31 is typically the end of the range considered to be a player's prime). I agree that he will most likely be declining going into years 3-5 of this contract. That wouldn't be at all unusual. He's also largely considered a below average to poor fielder, something that will likely only get worse as he ages and loses another step or two. And he just signed with the league which doesn't have a DH.

quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:

quote:

Originally posted by piaa_ump:
I loved jbay when he was a Pirate.........there must be some perverse pleasure in making the organization that drafted you and traded you away pay you the big bucks....

that or he has some lingering affection/loyalty to his original organization....

either way best of luck to him...........

PIAA: Bay was drafted by the Expos. How does this all fit together?

When Bay was in the minors he was traded from Montreal to New York to Pittsburgh.

Thirty-one typically is not old for a player in this era. Prime years often carry to mid to late thirties now. But Bay has a couple of physical problems with his shoulder and knee where the Sox were questioning his potential past four years and the money they offered. I read the fifth year is a player option assuming he reaches certain plateaus he should reach if he stays reasonably healthy. The fifth year option is the difference I didn't know about when I made the original post.

I just saw an update trend analysis on this very subject somewhere in the last few days (maybe Hardball Times?) where the prime years are now 26-28 with a slight downward trend starting at 29 with a little quicker decline after 32 and the sharper decline after 35. While the trend downwards is not as sharp as in previous decades, the steroid era gave a false sense of athletes prime years lasting longer. Generally very few if any have their prime years in their late thirties. Some highly gifted superstars have great years in their mid to late 30's simply because their standard performance is at a level much higher than the average player. Even then those are in most cases not their prime years. Mariano Rivera is an example of this and relievers who work 60-80 innings ayear do tend to last longer at a higher level of performance.

quote:

Originally posted by RJM:

quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:

quote:

Originally posted by piaa_ump:
I loved jbay when he was a Pirate.........there must be some perverse pleasure in making the organization that drafted you and traded you away pay you the big bucks....

that or he has some lingering affection/loyalty to his original organization....

either way best of luck to him...........

PIAA: Bay was drafted by the Expos. How does this all fit together?

When Bay was in the minors he was traded from Montreal to New York to Pittsburgh.

Thank you for confirming my post correcting that Bay was not drafted by the Mets but by the Expos.

quote:

Originally posted by TPM:

That's my opinion, at 31 most players are on the downhill, and besides that's not my opinion.

?

Somebody had better inform Derek Jeter and among others the likes of Arod, Posada, Chipper Jones, Derek Lowe, Tori Hunter, Bobby Abreau, Chris Carpenter, Brad Penny., Manny, Carlos Beltran, Roy Halladay,Brad Lidge, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, John Lackey, Tim Wakefield, Victor Martinez, mark Scutaro, Mike Cameron and David Ortiz.

They are all 30 or over and making extraordinary dollars--apparently I am not the only one who thinks you are over the hill when you get into your 30's

quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:

quote:

Originally posted by TPM:

That's my opinion, at 31 most players are on the downhill, and besides that's not my opinion.

?

Not just my opinion. Unfortunetly, I am in the beginning stages of retina detachment and I don't like my pc glasses and I don't reread my posts.
But hey, whose complaining.

That's just a small sampling TR, how many more of the 750 players in MLB are there on it that get 65 million?

MR Halladay is the prime example--look what he just signed for and his 30 plus

But no need debating with you, detached retina or no detached retina, because I keep forgetting that when it comes to me I am never correct and you are never wrong

Have a happy New Year

TR,

Happy New Year!

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quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:

quote:

Originally posted by RJM:

quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:

quote:

Originally posted by piaa_ump:
I loved jbay when he was a Pirate.........there must be some perverse pleasure in making the organization that drafted you and traded you away pay you the big bucks....

that or he has some lingering affection/loyalty to his original organization....

either way best of luck to him...........

PIAA: Bay was drafted by the Expos. How does this all fit together?

When Bay was in the minors he was traded from Montreal to New York to Pittsburgh.

Thank you for confirming my post correcting that Bay was not drafted by the Mets but by the Expos.

I think we are missing San Diego in this....Pirates acquired Bay from SD....(that I am sure of) progression

Hey There Little Red Riding Hood.
You Sure Are Looking Good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...oG6Q&feature=related

EH