WHich is Worse?

quote:

Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
Which is worse for a pitcher and better for a hitter, a 2-0 count, or any 3 ball count?

C'mon Stats, we know you already have the answer!

OK, I'll bite:

2 and 0 versus:

3 and 2: 2 and 0 better for batter
3 and 1: push
3 and 0: 3 and 0 better for batter

quote:

Originally posted by RedSoxFan21:
C'mon Stats, we know you already have the answer!

I have AN answer, but there’s no way I’d claim it was the ONLY or even the BEST answer.

The reason I asked, was because lately the 2 announcers doing the Indians games, have gotten fixated on how many times pitchers have started 2-0. For many years, and I daresay even now in most of the baseball world, one of the main things focused on was 1st pitch strikes.

The reasons for that are pretty simple. If the FPS is a BIP, that’s a good thing. Either the batter was out, which is a very good thing, or the batter get on, which has both good and bad points. A bad point is of course that he’s on, but a good point is, it happened on 1 pitch rather than making the pitcher waste energy on more pitches. If the 1st pitch is some other kind of strike, called, fouled, or swung at and missed, it puts the batter on the defensive, even if its just slightly, and opens up all kinds of options for the pitcher.

Now if the 1st pitch is a ball, a lot of things switch toward the pitcher having to get defensive. Of course the worst is a ball that’s an HBP, but a called ball can be pretty bad as well for the pitcher. Knowing all that, anyone can look at what goes on statistically, but you’d have to be very careful not to confuse umpire/scoreboard counts with “real” counts.

Looking at it from a pitcher or hitter’s perspective is something very different, because there’s really no way to know for sure what’s in someone’s mind. Anyone can say what they THINK should be in a pitcher or hitter’s mind, but its unlikely they’d be able to be correct in every instance for every pitcher. I think that’s part of the difference between a pitcher or hitter who’s successful and one that isn’t. Little things like a pitcher or hitter getting pi$$ed because he thinks a call was missed can affect what takes place. There a way to handle such things mentally that’s positive, and a way that’s negative, and I believe the way that’s done is very important.

All that being said, my FEELING is, any 3 ball count is worse for the pitcher than a 2-0 count, if for no other reason than, more bad things can happen.

A 3-0 count should not be of more concern than 2-0 or any other count for that matter. The potential for the hitter to reach base exists with EVERY pitch at any place in the count. He should be approaching his game, one pitch at a time! The hitter the same.

Walking a hitter, a free pass, isn't the worse thing that can happen at that point. Throwing a cookie that results in an extra-base hit should be a bigger fear. A smart pitcher, on 3-0, would throw the pitch that he intends to start the next hitter on!

Actually Perry Husband has all of the stats summarized on this stuff in one of his books. I will have to go dig it out and see what the stats tell us.