Why Wait Until the Game is Tied to Replace Pitcher?

I'm thinking this is a combination of hindsight being 20/20 and a coach with maybe too much faith in his starter.

Ton of reasons why - relief pitcher wasn't quite ready, no faith in the relief, has too much faith in starters, etc...

The one thing I think we can take away from this is the strategy isn't working.  

Coach2709 summed it up pretty well, in my experience coaches have to much faith in starter, not enough in the relief and typically are late getting the bullpen ready...once a kid is gassed even if he was the best option 20 pitches ago, he isn't anymore.

IMO most programs that are successful over time, meaning lots of years have developed roles, trust kids in them and have one or even 2 kids getting ready a batter early as opposed to a batter late.

There are time coaches know the staff better then anyone but usually they are just slow to pull the trigger.

I have wondered with pitch limits that coaches have a plan for the week and pulling their starter too soon might mess up the plan for the rest of the week, so they don't. We have six varsity games this week — stretching the pitching to cover all that takes some juggling.

Let's see, the starter pitches fairly well for 4-5 innings, and then worse? The third time through the lineup penalty probably applies in high school, too. Why wouldn't it? There is lots and lots of data about it in the pros:

www.usnews.com/news/sports/art...be-tough-to-navigate

www.baseballprospectus.com/art....php?articleid=22156

www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014...d-gb-and-fb-pitchers

As a knowledgeable, experienced baseball guy, surely your coach knows about this, right Golf?

Golfman25 posted:

We had the following situation several times this year.  Starting pitcher did really good for 4-5 innings.  Got a lead.  But then the starter would start having some problems.  Usually started with some control issues and maybe a few hard hits.  Our coach would leave him in.  Until the game was tied up.  Then he would put the relief in, usually with men in scoring position and we would eventually give up another run and loose the game.  Seems to me you'd want to make the change before they caught up, no? 

 What you described happens regularly on every team in the game including ML teams. My guess is, no matter how you define success, it would be normal for it to be reduced the more times the lineup turns over. Couple that with the starter getting fatigued and it’s understandable that starters almost universally have to be replaced. The problem is trying to determine when to do that, and so far no one’s been able to figger that out with much accuracy consistently.

 Having tried to figger it out myself by using the numbers, I can say with some degree of confidence that while there may be a perception of control loss, implying the pitcher’s throwing the ball all over the place, that just isn’t true very often. I’d say it was more likely a loss of precision due to fatigue or some other physical reason timing gets thrown off.

 My guess is also that “hard hits” is likely mis-perceived. Hitters often hit the ball hard all during a game but most lead to outs. It isn’t until a couple aren’t caught that people recognize how hard the ball is being hit, so it seems as though it’s something happening suddenly. Chances are, it’s just as likely the problems come from poor pitch calling or improved hitter execution as poor pitcher execution.

 So the answer to your question is yes, it would be better to pull a pitcher before he got into trouble and the opponent caught up, but it’s not as though there’s a sure fire way to make that decision.

Iowamom23 posted:

I have wondered with pitch limits that coaches have a plan for the week and pulling their starter too soon might mess up the plan for the rest of the week, so they don't. We have six varsity games this week — stretching the pitching to cover all that takes some juggling.

 We had a week this past season where we had to play 5 games in 5 days, and everyone thought the world was gonna end. Turns out it was much ado about nothing. The only real problem was the coach trying to keep track of who was eligible and who wasn’t, not having capable pitchers.

Golfman25 posted:

We had the following situation several times this year.  Starting pitcher did really good for 4-5 innings.  Got a lead.  But then the starter would start having some problems.  Usually started with some control issues and maybe a few hard hits.  Our coach would leave him in.  Until the game was tied up.  Then he would put the relief in, usually with men in scoring position and we would eventually give up another run and loose the game.  Seems to me you'd want to make the change before they caught up, no? 

Not sure how good your closer is...  must not be lights out since it appears somewhat common that he gives up the lead when put in with runners in scoring position.  That could factor in.  

Surely, if you have a strong closer, you would want to put him in before the lead evaporates.  But, we're talking HS.  Usually, pitching depth isn't very deep.  Usually, the starters are better than the other pitching options.  So, if that's the case, you are more likely to run with the starter longer.  If you play multiple games in a week and you rely on one closer, it is certainly not ideal to bring him in before the 6th inning.  If you want him to be available to close potentially two or three games in a week, you don't want him coming in having to go three innings.  And, almost always, your starter and closer are better than your "middle guy" option.  So...

We had an interesting dynamic this year.  I have a young pitching coach who does a very good job.  He was more involved this year and I wanted to give him more ownership and authority in his job.  He, of course, was a pitcher.  Acts like a pitcher, thinks like a pitcher and supports his pitcher guys.  As HC, I am looking big picture, want to have a guy ready when needed, quick to make the move when I see it going that way, etc.  Well, early on in the season during games, we would compare notes when I was considering a move and his tendency was "one more guy".  When I wanted a guy to warm up and be ready, he would lean toward not wanting to show the starter that we have a lack of confidence in him at that moment.  While that perspective has some merit, he had to learn how to balance that with putting the team in the position to be ready for all scenarios.  I made a few mistakes along the way by allowing him to keep his guy in for "one more guy" or not getting a guy ready earlier.  We both learned.  

My son's high school coach runs a great program. But his in game coaching decision making regarding pitchers leaves a lot to be desired. At least through when my son was there he left starters in too long. 

My son was the closer coming from a position. He told the coach more than a couple of times it would be easier to come off the sidelines after warming up at the start of the inning than coming cold off a position with eight pitches and the tying run on third. In three years the coach never listened.

Usually the relief pitchers are also starters so coaches have to consider their previous and future pitch counts.  If we expect a RP to give us a max of 50 pitches, we don't want him out there early and get into a situation where he's ineligible to pitch the next game.  

Well we really didn't have "starters" and certainly no closer.  We had on kid you could go a complete game or at least to the 7th before being pitch counted out.  We had two others who could start and sometimes go a complete game and sometimes burn out by the 5th.  We had another who would start and/or come in for relief but could only really go a few innings.  Then a few Jeckyll and hyde guys who may be able to come in relief and give an inning or two depending on what you got.  So, except for the no 1 kid, we generally used a two headed monster where the 2/3 or 3/4 kids would team up.  It was just constant that we would let the game get tied before we went to the second kid, like we where saving the 2nd kid for something.   

Devil you know vs the Devil you don't?

Go44dad posted:

Devil you know vs the Devil you don't?

Yeah, exactly.  

So, you "really don't have any starters and certainly no closer".  Under those circumstances and with those options, I'm not sure how much you could question the guy for leaving someone in that has you competing?  

My 11 yr old son came in 5th inning with 2 outs. The score was tied 4 to 4. The current pitcher was starting to go downhill. My son threw one pitch kid hit it to him and he threw him out at first. Top of 6th our team scored 3 runs. Now score is 7 to 4 we take the lead. My son comes back in to pitch the 6th and final inning. Strikes 2 kids out. Shortstop Majes error and 2 runs are scored. Game ends we retain the lead and win 7 to 6. Who's the winning pitcher?  I think it's clear my son. He was the pitcher when we got the lead and kept it. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks 

Golfman25 posted:

We had the following situation several times this year.  Starting pitcher did really good for 4-5 innings.  Got a lead.  But then the starter would start having some problems.  Usually started with some control issues and maybe a few hard hits.  Our coach would leave him in.  Until the game was tied up.  Then he would put the relief in, usually with men in scoring position and we would eventually give up another run and loose the game.  Seems to me you'd want to make the change before they caught up, no? 

I assume this is HS ball.  As others have posted it may greatly depend on how many relief pitchers are available and how much they have pitched already or are they scheduled for more games afterwards.  Son's senior year his HS team had basically three starters - an Ace throwing low 90's, #2 in the low to mid 80's and the third starter topped out at 80, but had a wicked curve ball and change up.  There were some "emergency" pitchers but only if things really went bad.  He really didn't want to go to the #4 and #5 pitchers.

The Coach's game plan basically depended on whoever started to make it through the 5th inning at a minimum.  If he had to go to a relief pitcher early (before the 5th) it was going to be a long night and a longer week.  Fortunately that didn't happen often.

So it might not be so much as trying to keep the lead as it might be having enough pitching down the road.