This question was prompted by two comments that were made in the "Recruiting plan for high academic D3" topic. The broader applicability of the question makes it seem worthy of its own topic. At what point will those extra years of COVID eligibility be flushed out of the system? Which HS graduating class can look forward to a return to pre-COVID conditions in terms of roster availability? My kid will be graduating HS in 2024. Thanks!
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I think, yes, it will be alleviated to a large degree by the time your 2024 is a freshman. There will still be some extra guys who redshirted, though, so I’d say completely “back to normal” will be for the 2025 & 2026 classes
(I’m the Dad of a 2021)
Not to the same extent, but the impact will probably linger through the 2025 college season (2026 in a few cases). We did have a lot of kids leaving juco after two years (2020 and 2021) with 4 years of eligibility left. Those guys use up their 4th year in the 2025 season (2026 with a medical waiver of red-shirt). There will also be some 2019 hs grads who get 2020, and maybe a medical waiver of red-shirt year, who can play through the 2025 season.
On the bright side, we are definitely on the downward side of the bell curve.
While we are on the subject, can someone rattle off the current NCAA guidelines for D1 baseball with respect to 1) roster size, 2) scholarship limits both gross and individually, and 3) scholarship counters? If you have the information, please include current year guidelines as well as any approved changes going forward AND please include changes that are being discussed (things like the 40 man roster??).
I have tried to stay informed but the changes have started to blur in my mind and I cannot seem to find this information laid out cohesively all in one location.
I think the portal will be the largest contributor to roster turnover after next year. There will be a few guys left with redshirt and COVID, but not the numbers we see in 20,21,22,23.
@2017 Lefty Dad posted:While we are on the subject, can someone rattle off the current NCAA guidelines for D1 baseball with respect to 1) roster size, 2) scholarship limits both gross and individually, and 3) scholarship counters? If you have the information, please include current year guidelines as well as any approved changes going forward AND please include changes that are being discussed (things like the 40 man roster??).
I have tried to stay informed but the changes have started to blur in my mind and I cannot seem to find this information laid out cohesively all in one location.
The D1 roster and scholarship limits are almost exactly the same for this current 2023 baseball season and for the 2024 baseball season. The roster limit is 40 players, and no more than 32 of those players can be receiving a baseball scholarship. Scholarships must be at least 25% equivalency and the total scholarship limit is the standard 11.7 total equivalency.
The only difference between the two years is that during this current 2023 season, the last 5 roster spots (above the normal 35-man limit and the 27 scholarships) must have been occupied by players who - under normal circumstances barring COVID - would have exhausted their eligibility during the 2021-22 academic year and were returning to the same team for the 2022-23 year to play their final year granted to them as the result of the COVID impact.
For next year, there is no such special rule for the last 5 roster spots. All other rules as mentioned previously will be the same for next year as for this current year.
Thank you Rick for the clarification!
I have a few other questions about 2024 and later rosters that are related and would love to hear folks thoughts.
With the 2024 roster of 40 (I believe recently announced), and the fact that many of the COVID players may be falling off rosters, how do you think the different levels will go about filling spots (or will some lower level teams simply carry fewer than 40)? I assume Power 5, etc. will reach into the transfer portal further to get some older kids that can contribute (i.e. second tier transfers) but will run out their clock quickly. Conversely, there seems to be discussion about a permanent 40 man roster and perhaps the big programs are comfortable enough to assume it will remain in place.
Working down the levels, are most D1 programs carrying close to 40 in 2023 and would you expect the majority of D1 teams to carry close to 40 in 2024. I suspect a true walk-on carries little incremental cost and could bring a few additional male students to campus - so is there a downside to increasing from 35 to 40 for smaller programs.
Lastly, does anyone have any information about possible changes to the D1 scholarship limit being increased?
Son's class will be the final 5 year eligible due to Covid and he will play his fifth year next year. You might have a few who got a second redshirt year but very few.
I think the portal will become bigger every year. The recruiting limits are actually pushing that way. Why would you go get a young player you have to mature and teach when you can get the player who has played 1, 2, 3, or 4 years already that you have proven numbers on.
The top tier players will still go straight to college and play but those will be fewer in the top programs. I think the interesting factor is that the more mid major college players are poached, the more room for young players so I would think there would be more opportunities for younger players at smaller schools but those spots may be taken by the players that normally would have gone to P5 but now start down a level and then move up. Part of some guys plans is to go mid major and then transfer to P5 rather than go P5 and sit. The portal opens a lot of doors both ways. Good or bad? Still to be decided.
People have asked me and my son if he has/would consider going somewhere else for his 5th year and maybe have a different role. Not schools, that I know of, just people interested in knowing. His is that he has it great and plays a big role, though small in a lot of minds, at his SEC school. It also fits into his long-term plans of coaching and hopes he will have a unique role next year possibly of unofficial player/coach working with younger pitchers. Everyone's journey and goals are different.
@baseballhs posted:I think the portal will be the largest contributor to roster turnover after next year. There will be a few guys left with redshirt and COVID, but not the numbers we see in 20,21,22,23.
The one-time transfer waiver for D1 baseball caused the jump in D1 to D1 transfers, not the transfer portal. @roothog66 son entered the portal in 2019, before the one-time transfer waiver was first activated for D1 baseball in the 2021-22 school year. He transferred to juco bc he would have had to sit out a year if he immediately transferred from D1 to D1.
Maybe they probably put the portal in place first bc they knew the waiver was coming and they would need a system to manage the flood of new transfers.
Yes, the rule has made the transfer portal the main recruiting tool for many schools.
Since the portal has become the latest recruiting tool, does that limit the opportunities for kids coming out of hs? If more and more schools are going to the portal, why would they recruit a hs kid? Maybe only the best of the best get recruited now.
@Dadof3 posted:Since the portal has become the latest recruiting tool, does that limit the opportunities for kids coming out of hs? If more and more schools are going to the portal, why would they recruit a hs kid? Maybe only the best of the best get recruited now.
It is a numbers game. The numbers probably start with roster limits (assuming all D1 teams go to the max) - this gives you the total number of kids playing D1 in a given year. It sounds like there are more kids rostered (not necessarily playing) D1 these days with the 40 max. Where these kids come from/will come from is an interesting question. My thoughts...
Power 5 - These are the schools that I suspect will churn players (despite the 4 year scholarship). Players that have reached too far and are sitting will transfer out to other D1 schools so as to get on the field. Replacing them will be transfers in that have excelled at lower levels. Power 5 will benefit from the smaller draft and fewer MiLB teams as some kids that would sign will need a home. The take away for Power 5 may be fewer recruited out of high school and those that do may have previously gone pro.
The mid-majors will still roster the same numbers but may see more turnover as players move up/out and others move down/into the program. As with Power 5, they will get the benefit of lower level players wanting to move up after have a good season. They will also lose some of their best players. I know of one mid-major in Alabama (Samford) that has had two kids leave to Power 5 schools - first one was later drafted in the 5th round and the second one looks to be a 2nd round pick. Both were starters once they showed up on the Power 5 campus.
Below the mid-majors, I assume it will be a mixed bag, but they will continue to recruit high schoolers as that avenue may be the only pipeline they have any control over. They may actually need a few more high schoolers as it is so much easier for talent to move (and therefore they may become less competitive in the D1 world).
I do think more kids will funnel through the JUCO route and some may have to make multiple moves during their playing career. It seems like it is harder to make the move from JUCO to DI and it is to transfer between DI's.
The post was a long winded way of saying the numbers of high schoolers playing at the next level should not drop going forward. That said, the paths taken are changing. Exactly who will expand their entry point for high schoolers is the big question AND, as folks on here like to stress, do these changes affect the pond you should be fishing in.
My 2024 actually chose a paper topic of COVID eligibility effects on recruiting for one of his assignments. He didn't get great responses from coaches (can't really blame them), but he did seem to enjoy the topic and was told that it was an original topic and therefore would benefit the final grading. His grade is TBD. His paper is why I am probably so interested in this topic at the moment. Also, they have advanced to the second round of playoffs (first time in a long time) and have a double header tonight.
I will use my kid's HA D3 as an example of the use of the transfer portal. They pulled two D1 and a D2 player in two years. That I was informed never happened before at his school. You add in the 5th years, PT was cut and this is a roster of 32 players. I can only imagine the log jam and frustration if there were 40 players fighting to get into the trough. I think the coach will go back into the portal for recruiting.
@2022NYC posted:I will use my kid's HA D3 as an example of the use of the transfer portal. They pulled two D1 and a D2 player in two years. That I was informed never happened before at his school. You add in the 5th years, PT was cut and this is a roster of 32 players. I can only imagine the log jam and frustration if there were 40 players fighting to get into the trough. I think the coach will go back into the portal for recruiting.
Right! So why even look at hs kids?
"Go where you are loved" needs to be carefully examined for any HS prospect. I cannot emphasize they need to be ready to compete when they start school and know they may only get 1 chance to prove themselves to be in the lineup and there is no margin. Some kids are better prepared for this mentally/emotionally, I would advise parents to prep their kids for this. This will be a new experience for some HS players and some never recover. This should be a part of their preparation for college ball.
@2022NYC posted:"Go where you are loved" needs to be carefully examined for any HS prospect. I cannot emphasize they need to be ready to compete when they start school and know they may only get 1 chance to prove themselves to be in the lineup and there is no margin. Some kids are better prepared for this mentally/emotionally, I would advise parents to prep their kids for this. This will be a new experience for some HS players and some never recover. This should be a part of their preparation for college ball.
Good point. And “go where you are loved” at many programs means “we love you on the back burner until you are a Junior or Senior”
@3and2Fastball posted:Good point. And “go where you are loved” at many programs means “we love you on the back burner until you are a Junior or Senior”
Is that good or bad?
@Dadof3 posted:Is that good or bad?
Better than “we just kinda like you”. It’s a good thing that you are loved, always. It’s just that at many schools the majority of playing time goes to upperclassmen.
My sense is that the dynamics at many D3 schools are quite different from D1 or D2 schools (although note that some of the D3 schools that were in the CWS last year had tons of transfers). However, I would not say that playing time necessarily goes to upperclassmen; at my son's school, the best play, whether they are freshmen or seniors. Of the seniors this year, a few had started since freshman year, a few became regulars as seniors, and a few never played much at all. I don't know whether the differences were in effort, physicality, ability, or exactly what - but I'm sure the other players and coaches know.
But this doesn't have to do with 2024s, other than an interesting question: if 2020s-2023s are still in school in 2024, and had less playing time because of the covid factors, will they be (a) more hungry to play, or (b) less skilled because they haven't gotten into games?
In other words, the old story, the junior who thought he would finally get his shot, replaced by a hot-shot freshman or transfer? I would think that at D1s, and even D2s, such players would more likely expect to be replaced by juco or other transfers.
It's pretty simple math. Those who were freshman in 2020 normally would have cleared out by the end of the 2023 season. Many of them now have an option to stay and play in 2024. So, it's the HS class of 2023 that should be the last group trying to break through the log jam. And, the backlog should be cleared out when the HS class of 2024 graduates.
Of course, this doesn't factor in red shirts. So, maybe it's still not easy for the 2024s?
@Francis7 posted:It's pretty simple math. Those who were freshman in 2020 normally would have cleared out by the end of the 2023 season. Many of them now have an option to stay and play in 2024. So, it's the HS class of 2023 that should be the last group trying to break through the log jam. And, the backlog should be cleared out when the HS class of 2024 graduates.
Of course, this doesn't factor in red shirts. So, maybe it's still not easy for the 2024s?
That’s exactly it. Redshirts will make it tougher until the 2025’s arrive
Am I correct in understanding that there is no redshirt rule at the D3 level? Sure D3 rosters might still be affected by D1 and D2 redshirts that trickled down to D3 after using their redshirt year, but that's probably a very small number of kids. I suppose there could still be new recruits that trickle down to D3 due to redshirt congested rosters at the higher levels. But I don't know. How common is redshirting? And how common is HA redshirting?
Bonus points to anyone who can explain why there is no redshirting at the D3 level.
There are Redshirts in D3. Particularly at the schools that are perennial D3 powerhouses
Really? I've had D3 coaches tell me otherwise. Hmmm...
@NotABaseballGuy posted:Really? I've had D3 coaches tell me otherwise. Hmmm...
There's no red shirts technically at D3. Not in the sense like they are denoted in D1 and D2. But, a player can still get in 4 seasons of playing at a D3 even if he misses a year. I believe that you have 10 semester in order to get your 4 seasons in. But, you should verify that and not take my word as gospel.
@NotABaseballGuy posted:Really? I've had D3 coaches tell me otherwise. Hmmm...
Could also depend on the school. HA D3’s are not likely to allow a kid 5 years. Non-HA schools might be more open to it.
My son's HA D3 had/have 5th years. It boggles my mind and makes my wallet cringe.
@NotABaseballGuy posted:Really? I've had D3 coaches tell me otherwise. Hmmm...
Those coaches are probably defining the term redshirt the way it's used in D1/D2, where the player can practice with the team during the season. In D3, if the player is not practicing with the team during the season, that season doesn't count against their 4 seasons of participation. Most people would call that a redshirt year, but not everyone.
@Francis7 posted:It's pretty simple math. Those who were freshman in 2020 normally would have cleared out by the end of the 2023 season. Many of them now have an option to stay and play in 2024. So, it's the HS class of 2023 that should be the last group trying to break through the log jam. And, the backlog should be cleared out when the HS class of 2024 graduates.
Of course, this doesn't factor in red shirts. So, maybe it's still not easy for the 2024s?
Lots of juco guys played parts of 2019-20 and 2020-21 without burning any eligibility. I have no idea how many of those guys will still be around for the 2025 spring season, but they will have eligibility.
At the few schools that didn't play a season in 2021, mostly HA, the 2019 HS grads are eligible to still be playing in 2024 and 2025. Some of them took the academic year 2020-21 off, so they will still be undergrads academically through 2024. But that is not many schools.
@NotABaseballGuy posted:Am I correct in understanding that there is no redshirt rule at the D3 level? Sure D3 rosters might still be affected by D1 and D2 redshirts that trickled down to D3 after using their redshirt year, but that's probably a very small number of kids. I suppose there could still be new recruits that trickle down to D3 due to redshirt congested rosters at the higher levels. But I don't know. How common is redshirting? And how common is HA redshirting?
Bonus points to anyone who can explain why there is no redshirting at the D3 level.
Give the bonus points to @MidAtlanticDad for his explanation of D3 redshirting, but I'll expand on it just a bit.
NCAA D1 and D2 athletes are allowed four "seasons of competition" within their normal eligibility clock of 5 years. A D1 or D2 athlete who doesn't compete for their team during a season can claim that as their redshirt year.
D3 athletes are allowed four "seasons of participation" within their normal 10 semester (or 15 quarter) clock. If a D3 athlete participates (just practicing even if they never appear in an actual game) during or after the first game of the season, they have used one of their four "seasons of participation."
An athlete who redshirts during their time at a D1 or D2 program and then transfers to D3 can still claim their redshirt season to be eligible for play in their 5th year at a D3 program. However, if they graduate from a non-D3 level and then want to compete at a D3 school, they will need a waiver since the D3 grad transfer opportunity is limited to those athletes who earned their undergrad degree from a D3 program.
I was going to say there are many D1 players who also had medical redshirt so they will be here for 25 season along with juco guys who got 2 extra years. But I don't see the logjam going away because rosters got inflated and portal allows them to bring guys in so just a different logjam.
Thanks everyone! This was very informative.
I wonder if starting in the fall of 2025 the glut will turn into a shortage? As a result of the glut, I think many decent 2022 & 2023 players were grinded out of the pipeline or quit after freshman year. I don't see as many 2024 getting picked up because of the glut somewhat remains in place.
My son had TJ in December of junior year. He was just getting back to full strength in middle of spring. Had not played baseball from September 2022 - November 2023. No showcases, no games, etc. Just re-hab and strength training and no offers
I told him to go to JUCO for one year as student, re-make contacts, looking into showcase, etc and come back the following year when the glut is gone. He would still have 4 years of eligibility
A shortage of what? College coaches not being able to find enough HS players? LOL. Not happening. Go watch some college coach interviews. Many at this point are relying mostly on JUCO transfers and the portal.
@nycdad posted:A shortage of what? College coaches not being able to find enough HS players? LOL. Not happening. Go watch some college coach interviews. Many at this point are relying mostly on JUCO transfers and the portal.
Shortage higher level player. In other words, a shortage of college level depth.
Some coaches are relying on men that are 23-25 years old with 5-6 years of eligibility. That will soon be gone.
@Baller1010 posted:Shortage higher level player. In other words, a shortage of college level depth.
Some coaches are relying on men that are 23-25 years old with 5-6 years of eligibility. That will soon be gone.
Excellent point/question! And I am hoping so for my 2027s sake!
I just read thru most of the comments in this thread from a year ago. Some of them are spot on one year later. Some didn’t age so well. Here is what I am seeing….the glut of players has not thinned out. A tremendous over supply still remains - and it’s affecting every level of college baseball. The 2024 HS grad class will be negatively impacted as much as any prior class - if not more. Most D1 schools are using the transfer portal as their highest priority in recruiting. Followed by JuCo players. HS players are a distant 3rd and only the absolute best are authentically being recruited by competitive D1/D2 programs. Bottom line is that it’s absolutely brutal for HS players - and there is nothing they can do about other than adjust their sights. IMO HS players should open their mind to any level of college baseball that gets them on the field. It doesn’t matter if it’s JuCo or D3 or whatever. HS is no longer a proving ground for college recruiters the way it used to be. HS players are not developed at 4 year schools anymore (some will contend that they never were). If a player can’t help the program from day 1 he is shown the door. HS players need to check their ego and accept that what they have done so far doesn’t mean what it used to. To get to the desired destination they will have to prove themselves at the college level. For most of them that means starting at a lower level than they planned on, playing well there, and then moving on (or not). I tell every player I advise that they need to be in the top half of the roster on any team they are on in college. You are totally expendable if you aren’t. If you are a pitcher you need to be in the top 8 on the staff. If you are a position player you need to be no less than a trusted backup at multiple positions. Being a starter is preferred. If you aren’t valuable to the program you won’t be retained year to year. As a player, this is the time you have to under promise and over deliver. Nothing matters other than your production as a player. This is the business side of college baseball. It’s cold. It’s hard. It’s brutal. And most 18 year old college freshman are not ready for it. And by most I mean almost all.
How brutal has it become for high school kids? Watch the Sweeney video (former MLB player). It’s about what happened to his kid after being told in recruiting he’s all set and come help us win a CWS.
@Baller1010 posted:Shortage higher level player. In other words, a shortage of college level depth.
Some coaches are relying on men that are 23-25 years old with 5-6 years of eligibility. That will soon be gone.
To add to my thought and what I said at the beginning - When I put it together
When the young men that are 23-25 with the 5-6 years of eligibility are completely flushed from the pipeline, I think there might be a void of 2022 / 2023 upperclassman depth that pre-maturely quit or were grinded out of the system because rosters exploded and could not handle all the players - Especially young players. Those huge rosters did not allow the fresh/soph to compete for time to play or develop. - That is where I get the shortage of college level depth
They gave 2018-2020 kids a free lunch - Unfortunately - most don't understand there is no such thing as a free lunch. Therefore the price is being paid by the 2022-2024
I don't know - Maybe I am completely missing the boat on it.
