year to year velocity progression

Summer before 10th grade: 81
Summer before 11th grade: 86
Summer before 12th grade: 92

These were maximum effort velocities. I expect by next spring (the start of his first collegiate season) he will be sitting comfortably at 87-90 and perhaps occasionally hitting a high of 92+.

I attribute these numbers and the increases year over year to (1) physical growth; (2) coaching and refined mechanics; (3) natural ability; and, arguably, (4) lots of long toss; and (5) lots of innings pitched versus good competition.

Bum, Jr. is a LHP..

H.S. Soph: top 79, cruise 75-77
H.S. Junior: top 88, cruise 85-86 (yep, big jump)
H.S. Senior: top 89, cruise 86-88
Coll Frosh: top 90, cruise 87-89
Coll Soph: top 91, cruise 88-90
Coll Jr.: top 92, cruise 88-90
Now (single-A), top 92, cruise 88-91

Don't know if many other than us would be interested, but we have many thousands cases in our data base. We actually have a chart that breaks down averages in just about everything.

It shows different categories of players, ie. Top 100 ranked, top 5 round draft picks, Top 500 ranked, DI commits, overall average of everyone, etc.

It includes info for velocity, different pitches, 60 yard dash, pop times, velocities from every position, hitting grades, power grades, fielding grades, H-1 times, PG Grades, and more. It can even break down by height weight or even by state or region or include everyone.

For example it would show RHP or LHP peak velocity averages for freshman, soph, Jr, and seniors for each category.

Example, Average peak velocity of all Jr RHP that were eventually ranked top 100 was 89... average as a senior was 92. In pitchers drafted in the first rd, the average was 94, but still 89 as a junior.

So based on the data we have (thousands of pitchers) you could say the average velocity gain between jr and sr year is 3 MPH.

Problem is the averages mean very little to an individual. First rounders averaged 5 mph increase.

I doubt if anyone has a database of player information this large. So the numbers actually do mean something to us. Not sure if they would mean that much to anyone else.

6-9th, +10 each year
9-10th, +5
10-11th, +5
11-12th, ??

pretty much 5 mph per year over the last 6 years. Son is junior in HS this year. top velocity his sophmore year was 85mph.

Bum,

Loving that 9 mph jump in Bum Jr's Junior year.
Wondering what you think most contributed to the nice improvement?

Good mechanical instruction, plyometrics and core work, long-toss year-round, natural growth.

14: 74mph
15: 79 mph
16: 87 mph

Those are max velocities

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Don't know if many other than us would be interested, but we have many thousands cases in our data base. We actually have a chart that breaks down averages in just about everything.

It shows different categories of players, ie. Top 100 ranked, top 5 round draft picks, Top 500 ranked, DI commits, overall average of everyone, etc.

It includes info for velocity, different pitches, 60 yard dash, pop times, velocities from every position, hitting grades, power grades, fielding grades, H-1 times, PG Grades, and more. It can even break down by height weight or even by state or region or include everyone.

For example it would show RHP or LHP peak velocity averages for freshman, soph, Jr, and seniors for each category.

Example, Average peak velocity of all Jr RHP that were eventually ranked top 100 was 89... average as a senior was 92. In pitchers drafted in the first rd, the average was 94, but still 89 as a junior.

So based on the data we have (thousands of pitchers) you could say the average velocity gain between jr and sr year is 3 MPH.

Problem is the averages mean very little to an individual. First rounders averaged 5 mph increase.

I doubt if anyone has a database of player information this large. So the numbers actually do mean something to us. Not sure if they would mean that much to anyone else.

This is awesome data. Thanks for sharing!

What are we talking about?

How many of the parents of pitchers out there have players that are going to be top draft choices? Very few, if any. I'd bet zero or one, maybe two.

So the rest of you who are interested in velocity progression, beware of extrapolating the data and thinking your son is going to be throwing 93, 94+ and be a top-round draft choice. Chances are, his career will be over after high school. If he's talented, he'll get into a top college.

If he's especially talented, pro.

Back when, I did a study of velocity, also commented on by PG. I was, like many of you immersed in the data, trying to figure out whether Bum, Jr. had a chance.

He had a chance only because he worked his a** off.

The truth is, 99% of those that threw harder than my son in h.s. have been out of baseball for years. 1% threw softer and now throw harder.

Don't project, just do. Work at it and if it is meant to be it will happen.

Yeah, the data is hardly predictive. I agree there.

It's more interesting than it is anything else. Unless the kid has one in a million genetics (and even then!), ridiculously hard work is certainly necessary.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
So the rest of you who are interested in velocity progression, beware of extrapolating the data and thinking your son is going to be throwing 93, 94+

This was the key for us. Where will Little Johnny end up?

He may stop at 85, 88, 90, or 95. You don't know, and it affects how you approach recruiting, and showcasing.

If you're a soph and throwing 85, you may get some interest from big schools. But, if you don't progress, you will never hear from them again.

Nobody can give you an honest appraisal of your kid at that point. Nobody knows what will happen.

It might be a good idea to get an opinion from someone knowledgable regarding mechanics, arm action, arm speed and other things that relate to projection.

There can be a big difference between two 16 year olds who both throw 79-80 mph.

No one knows for certain what will happen in the future. So much depends on effort and desire. However, there are several "clues" that provide for a more educated guess.

The first time I ever saw "Bums" son pitch, I knew he was going to gain velocity if he really wanted to. also I was pretty sure he wanted to. Therefore I liked him more than many pitchers who threw harder at that time. It was because of all the other things rather than lighting up the gun at that time. That would come later.

PGStaff - In your comment above, I believe you touched on an area that needs to be emphasized to a few. I felt it was worth pointing out.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
It was because of all the other things rather than...

You don't always get what you wish for, you get what you work for.

quote:

So the rest of you who are interested in velocity progression, beware of extrapolating the data and thinking your son is going to be throwing 93, 94+ and be a top-round draft choice. Chances are, his career will be over after high school. If he's talented, he'll get into a top college.

If he's especially talented, pro.

Back when, I did a study of velocity, also commented on by PG. I was, like many of you immersed in the data, trying to figure out whether Bum, Jr. had a chance.

He had a chance only because he worked his a** off.

The truth is, 99% of those that threw harder than my son in h.s. have been out of baseball for years. 1% threw softer and now throw harder.

Don't project, just do. Work at it and if it is meant to be it will happen.

It's really hard to project as each young player is unique. Son is approaching 6' as a freshman. How much more can he grow, don't know. He is approaching 80mph or may be over, how much faster can he go, don't know. All I tell him is to work hard and do the right things, if it happens it happens. If not, get a good GPA and go to a good school. Beyond that, it's a God given talent.

For the progression, son is on average improve about +7mph per year. But told him it will get harder and harder to improve beyond 80mph. He has to work his tail off at the minimum, the rest is God given.

All of my sons are baseball pitchers. I am on the third and last son. Zach will turn 16 in late January. He can throw 86-87 mph, but he consistently stays at 85 mph. He is hoping to pass the 90 mph mark during his sophomore season. I agree with the guy that said once you reach 80 mph it gets more difficult. One important thing, velocity is important, but having a good off-speed is just as important.

This is a very interesting discussion but, as Bum's very cogent discussion implies (to me at least), one can't reliably infer from Perfect Game's spectacular database what any given individual will be able to do.

For me, one of the most useful and practical questions that Perfect Game data can answer is: Given the wide range of program levels within, say, D-1 category (i.e., ~300 colleges/universities are listed as NCAA D-1 baseball programs) what are their average expectations of some measurable performance level for High School-aged prospects?

For HS-aged pitchers who participate in a PG event, their database pretty reliably gives a radar-measured peak FB speed. Sometimes there is anecdotal information or some quantitative data about other pitches, but majority of the time it's just top FB velocity.

How can one use this data in a meaningful way? Here is one example: I was interested to know the average FB speed in High School of RHP prospects who eventually made it on to a WCC conference roster in 2012. A different way of stating this is: I was interested to know what type of performance level WCC coaches expected, on average, from their HS RHP prospects.

To answer this specific question, one needs to go to the roster page of each individual WCC school and make a list of all the 2012 RHPs on those rosters. Then, cross-check the list against PG database by searching each individual name at the PG website.

Without question the exercise is tedious but if you really want to know what the average expectations of coaches are for recruiting HS players into their conference I think that approach gives about as realistic an answer as possible:

HS-aged RHPs who eventually found their way onto a WCC roster in 2012 threw the fastball during high school with vel = 86.5 +/- 3.5 mph. Thus, about 70% (1 std. dev.)of these eventual WCC-level RHPs were in the range 83 - 90 mph when they were measured by PG during their High School years. Another 15% of them were higher than 90 mph, and yet another 15 % of them were lower than 83 mph when the measurements were taken.

For LHPs who eventually appeared on a 2012 WCC roster, the average HS velocity was lower, as one might expect: 84 +/- 4 mph.

One can perform this analysis for any single school, or any conference, as long as there is sufficient data for in the PG database; however, there is a caveat: Very weak programs generally have many fewer pitchers with PG data available, strong programs seem to be stacked with more players who do have PG data...it seems natural that strong players would not only be more active in showcasing themselves but would also of course tend to populate the stronger college programs. So the analysis is much higher quality for the upper 2/3 of the ~300 D-1 college programs.

Another example: The data for Pac-12 conference, which obviously includes many nationally high-ranked programs, shows that the average expectation for a High School-aged RHP fastball was 88.7 +/- 4 mph, a range of 84.5 - 93 mph for the 1 std dev group.

None of this data-crunching pretends to tell any individual how he is likely to progress in HS or beyond. As Bum implied, that depends on factors that are impossible to measure with a radar gun. However, perhaps what it can do, with the best quantitative information available, is guide a High School-aged individual toward setting realistic goals based on the evidence for coaches' average expectations at the various levels of college baseball.

laflippin,

Outstanding work. We actually have ways to eliminate much of the work you did because we have the database to work off of. However, what a great idea you have. We know there is a lot more information we can pump out of the database.

You are exactly right about all these statistics. Nothing ever pertains to what an individual might be capable of. I often get asked what the average is for high school. Even if someone knew that, would it make any difference? To me it is more important to know what the average is to be drafted, first round pick, individual conference or college, etc. There are many above average hs players that never get any college interest. So average tells me nothing.

Players need to strive to be as good as possible. No chart can dictate what any individual is capable of.