With the draft in full-swing, I found this fascinating, from FanGraphs. It goes on, but this summary says so much about how players develop over time. You really do never know ...
At this point, everyone knows the story of the Cardinals stealing Albert Pujols in the 13th round of the 1999 draft. In terms of production for the cost, it’s probably the best draft pick in Major League history. Well, apparently, the Cardinals are good at this whole 13th round draft pick thing, because exactly 10 years after they unearthed Pujols, they struck gold again.
Their 2009 13th round pick? Matt Carpenter. He was a senior sign out of Texas Christian University, a budget pick who only cost them a $1,000 signing bonus. After signing, the Cardinals had him split time between short-season and two A-ball levels. At low-A, he drew some walks but showed no power — in part because he hit flat footed with no weight transfer — and was terrible when he got promoted to high-A, hitting .219/.286/.342 in 128 plate appearances. 23-year-old non-athletes who can’t hit A-ball pitching a few months after signing for $1,000 are the definition of non-prospects.
But, over the last few years, the Cardinals have watched Carpenter begin to develop. First came the addition of a weight shift in his swing, giving him doubles power instead of just beating the ball into the ground all the time. Then came some positional flexibility, as he turned himself from a fringe third baseman into a guy who could handle both corner spots and play the outfield. Finally, to get himself an everyday job in a crowded line-up, he turned himself into a second baseman. And now, at age-27, Carpenter is in the midst of developing from a decent hitter into maybe the premier offensive second baseman in the National League.
