84 as a HS LHP jr

My 2025 LHP was pretty similar velo as a jr but he stopped growing at 6ft 0-1.   I think a very real issue is that kids start to have injuries at age 16/17 and velo above 85.  All that subtle wear/tear from all that youth baseball starts to become evident and you're now able to mount forces great enough to break things. If I had to do it all over, I would take my kid to Randy Sullivan at the Florida Baseball Armory for an analysis and do whatever he said.  Then I'd do his remote program or go back periodically for a check up.  Read those 2 sentences again.  Unless your kid is a true high level D1 or draft eligible pitcher and will benefit from the exposure of a national or high level regional club team; this will be a MUCH better use of your baseball dollars.

In short, given the current state of college baseball recruiting I think your son (with your help) needs to "get after it" right now.  Let the college coaches decide what is his upside, and where he could potentially fit in a rotation.  He has a recruiting advantage being a LHP...use it.  It took my son 22 months to find the right fit based on what he wanted to get out of college.   Lots of things happened in those 22 months.   Some of it we controlled, and some of it was out of our control.  Luck was part of it.

If you think he is JUCO or HA Ivy candidate then pursue it with everything you got to actually prove it out based on what your son wants to get out of his 4 or more years.  I know from an Ivy recruiting perspective they have (already) identified some high school junior candidates and constantly sifting through others given the challenges of D1 athletics combined with stiff academic requirements.   Lean on your high school, and travel coach to get you started....now.   Of course there are many resources here to assist as well.   Tick tock.

As always, JMO.

(my 2 cents)

#1:Ivy and Juco are worlds apart.......

#2: Go where you are loved, and have an honest chance to play.

#3: Appreciate those that give you real evaluations, then make the best choice you can.

#4: Make sure that your kid finds happiness in the process, otherwise it ain't worth it and he won't do it.

#5: It's a grind, so don't forget to smile! (you'll attract the right people)

If he has the grades and test scores (and you have the $$$), I'd pursue Ivy's or HA D3. Use baseball as a tool for his education.

This may be the first time I’ve seen JuCo and Ivy in the same sentence. Your son isn’t a pro prospect. He is a lefty. Take JuCo off the list and start thinking Ivy and HA D3.

I think we can take more care on how we phrase things here.  I know how JUCO  and HA can come up in the same sentence.  I feel I know exactly where Texaslefty is coming from.  First baseball kid?  probably.  It's hard to know exactly where he fits right?  Physically he will look the part if he is 6ft3+. And he's a lefty. All we are told, when he was young, is how much of an advantage being a lefty is.  But I suspect "84" might really be 80-84.  I know because I do it too. So hence the JUCO thoughts.  D1's aren't sniffing around but you don't know absolutely for sure how it will turn out. So you say maybe he just needs time to develop at a JUCO. But I suspect my kid academically is a lot like your kid. It is probably not a good fit to be at a JUCO no matter what.  And I suspect, with the changes in college baseball, the Ivy's will be getting a lot of "drop down" interest in the years to come and those spots will be even harder to get.  So again, train somewhere where he can optimize his mechanics and stay healthy. Then see how it goes.  My kids team has a few kids where that extra 2-3 inches of growth really changed things for them. But if it is high academic D3, so be it.  He would still be an amazing kid to be able to combine that level of academics and athletics.  And nothing says he can't transfer if he just happens to turn out to be a freshman D3 All-American pitcher.

Fantastic post by @Dadbelly2023! And yes, for a TX prospect with excellent academic record Juco and HA can certainly coexist, and both be viable and realsitic. I would, however, echo @fenwaysouth and consider "getting after it" if ivies are the goal. Given the current landscape, whether warranted or not, theres a growing perception the ivies, patriots, and a few others may represent some degree of refuge from the overrecruiting storm, so supply/demand dynamics may pressure standards (higher) and timing (sooner) before all the chairs are occupied when the proverbial music stops (sooner). Velo and pitchability progress, and then exposure strategy will matter to ultimate success. Yes, as a LEFT handed PITCHER, your window should stretch into next August, but with what Im seeing, that may only be true for half the ivies, and the majority if not all of the patriots. With the changes in college baseball and all the domino and trickle down effects, the standards are moving higher and the window compressing some. And as @nycdad alluded to, be prepared to pay for those safe harbors. The more a TX prospect wants to play in their home state, the more realstic the JUCO route is. Options increase the further away from home theyre willing to venture.

Appreciate the conversation.  @Dadbelly2023 has my situation right on.  It’s a freaking dilemma.  

@GratefulNTXlurker is living in my mind too - refuge from the overrecruiting storm  

just needed to have a conversation to get thoughts out of my head and some clarity   Very much appreciate it  

Just FYI, Ivies don't take transfers, so there won't be any "drop-down" effect there.  Good luck with the process. For HA schools, remember to tell your son to continue taking all his core courses, including four years of lab science and advanced math. Don't drop the foreign languages. He needs to be academically qualified, not just have a high GPA.   Look for January camps at the Ivies this winter break.

Your son is young and still has time to grow and change. In his sophomore year in high school, my son was a kicker for the football team and the second-string third-baseman; now he is a minor-league pitcher. You never know what will happen. Wishing you a fun junior spring!

ReluctantO'sFan feedback is right on target.  My son had a great experience at a mid major.  There were more than a few players throwing below 85.  The bottom line on the players is they have to get batters out.  Your son should project more velo but throwing 88 with no movement, control, or secondary pitches will make it challenging to get hitters out. 

Realistically you need a coach to get a college coach interested in him.  Even the Ivy's are tough to crack because those coaches have people they trust for referrals. 

@RHP_Parent posted:

Just FYI, Ivies don't take transfers, so there won't be any "drop-down" effect there.

Some Ivys DO accept transfers.  Some do not.  My son played with a couple transfers, and they were drop downs from previous P5 programs.   

@BaseballFan1965 posted:

...............................

Realistically you need a coach to get a college coach interested in him.  Even the Ivy's are tough to crack because those coaches have people they trust for referrals.

Yes, Ivys are tough to crack.  Some use a network of travel baseball referrals, and some use college coach referrals, and most do both.   College coaches do a lot of networking and talking amongst themselves.   I know for a fact that two D1 mid-majors floated my son's name to two different Ivys because they had good friends that were RCs.  The bottom line is if you have a strong advocate, D1 skills, and the grades/rigor to be considered then you will most likely get contacted.   With that said, I would not wait around.  If Ivy is a path you seriously want to consider then I would be reaching out to introduce myself.

As always, JMO.

While it is technically possible to transfer to an Ivy academically, it is rare; certainly, there is not a lot of recruiting from the transfer portal, at least in my son's experience. I think the original post was about transfer students crowding out first- and second-year recruits. I have not seen this happen in the Ivy League during the past five years. I think most recruited players will have an opportunity to get on the field.  Ivy League teams often struggle with having enough players, particularly pitchers, available during the season, given that they only recruit 7-8 players per class. 

I think "drop downs" was in reference to #'s "35-40+" on the roster/depth chart of HA P4 teams who may be cut loose looking for new homes in lieu of rule changes. It's already happened this year. Moving forward, that same group of recruits (in spirit) will potentially change supply/ demand dynamics down stream.

Going forward the best recipe for success (for 90% of HS players that are good enough to be recruited to play college baseball) will be to find D3 & JuCo programs that don’t over recruit. The next criteria would be a HC with some tenure and high character. If those two things exist at a program the likelihood of a good experience goes up exponentially. After that you can drill down on the details. But IMO (given the messy state of college baseball) the most stable approach (for those that have the requisite academics) is HA D3. Assuming a kid isn’t a pro prospect and doesn’t have professional aspirations

  To tag onto my last post I will add this. I coach at one of the best JuCo programs in America - and I am very fortunate to be on that staff. Our program won  a national championship in 2019 and my youngest son was a star on that team. I say all that to establish perspective. We are an elite JuCo program and we recruit really good players.
  Here is what I want people to know. As of this week we are changing our recruiting philosophy. And this is at the direction of our Athletic Director. Going forward we will only offer scholarships to HS players if we feel like they are good enough to start for us right now. Not in a year, when they would actually be on campus. Right now. I hope people understand how many HS players won’t stand up to that criteria. When I watch a HS game it’s pretty normal for the best player on the field that day to not be good enough to start for us. The bar for entering college baseball has been raised. And not by a little bit. By a lot. And that is by design. That’s what people need to understand. In the past the mantra was “if you want to play bad enough there is someplace that will take you.” IMO that is no longer the case. Going forward it will be much harder for most  HS grads  to find a place to play college baseball. That’s we here we are - and I just don’t think most people understand that.

My goodness you have a great opportunity to learn and get an honest appraisal of his capability in your back yard. (uhh I get Texas is one big back yard....plus a potential landing spot if he is interested) Contact Dave Smith the pitching coach at Trinity University and get over and watch some of their January practices once they get back to school.  Dave also does personal coaching on the side and has said that he can get any athletic pitcher in the 90's. Dave was doing advanced velocity and Pilates training at Trinity long before Driveline existed. He is one of the best college pitching coaches IMO at any level. Take advantage of your location, get a tour of the school, and figure out how he might fit in a national championship D3 program as well as an outstanding academic school.  IM me if you need more information.

Tagging onto previous post by @BOF :

Naturally, I have not seen the OP's son.  I recall when coaching basketball, we had this young man show up who was 5'9" in 8th grade and he was 6'2" as a freshman.  His dad said that he was "projected" to be 6'4" or taller.  We marked his height on one of the doors in the locker room.  We were pretty excited and he was pretty good in open gyms.  As a coaching staff, we noticed during the basketball season, he started showing facial hair.  He never grew another inch.

I’ll take 6’2” all day long.  But I guess you were talking about basketball….

@Dadof3 posted:

I’ll take 6’2” all day long.  But I guess you were talking about basketball….

He was a post player.  He had good moves for a freshman at that height.  He ate a lot of leather as a sophomore. 

Thanks.  I am grateful for the conversation.  I agree that projections are just that but at least he’s a true 6’1 now 😁.  And from earlier, yes 84 is his max velo and his cruising velo are almost the same, but yes, he’s a 80-82 all day right now.  He started to work on mechanical improvements and while it’s too early to project 😁, it’s a different focus and he’s committed to it.