Out of curiosity, I looked at 60 players from the HS Class of 2022 at a single specific position in my home state who committed to a college program somewhere. Here are the stats:
16 committed D1, 5 committed D2, 33 committed D3 and 6 committed Juco.
88% of the D1 are playing with their D1 this spring.
60% of the D2 are playing with their D2 this spring.
79% of the D3 are playing with their D3 this spring.
33% of the Juco are playing with their Juco this spring.
Overall, 75% are playing with the team this spring that they committed to as a HS senior and 25% are playing somewhere else or not playing at all.
Of course, this is a very small sample size.