Advanced Metrics

Personally, I like simple things. Give me %HHB (hard hit balls) and BB to K rates.  To me that tells just how well you are seeing the ball.

p.s.  if those are good, then likely everything else is as well......

I'm actually heading to the ski slopes, but this will be an interesting conversation. I'm more focused on pitching than hitting, but both hitters and pitchers utilize the data to attack the others in the MLB. Knowing the shapes of pitches, where a pitcher uses a types of pitches, high backspin rates and how to offset them. Many of the new metrics attempt to take luck and sequence out of the analysis - 2 singles and a HR is 3 earned runs, a HR and two singles is 1 earned run, ERA is not a great stat because sequence maters (it should even out over time tho). If you haven't spend any time on baseball savant (and like data), I suggest you check it out.

PT

The important stat is W's [wins] for the team. Metrics are not proven to produce wins over loss. Players and Coaches can be "too involved" with metrics and lose the goal. It is the "human" element that produce "wins".

For a hitter "do not miss the "hanging curve"! For a pitcher "watch the "on deck" hitter's swing. For a catcher "watch the hitter's and runners feet. For a Manager study the social psychology of his players.

A hitter who is late on a "fastball" adjusts - moves deep in the batter's box and chokes the bat and prepare for a slider or curve. This is a discussion that I have with Scouts, MLB Coaches. The game is simple "see the ball" and react!!!

Bob

Sons cares about ERA, k/w ratio, and win/loss.  He is not a starter and does not pitch for long periods so a lot of it is hard to tell.  He cares about the things he can control.  ERA is one of the things he can control because it does away with errors and such.  He cares about how many walks he has because he is a big pitch to weak contact guy and stays around the zone most every pitch.  Son's era last year was 1.66.  Son has pitched 85.2 innings in 3 years with 82 K's and 10 walks with 6 of those being intentional or don't throw it over the plate, if he swings good but don't let him hit it.  I think every player is different as to what they look at.  A lot of starters don't put a lot of emphasis on era and their's is normally higher.  Guys who are middle relievers should have lower eras and closers look at wins or saves.  Each role for a pitcher is different and what they consider success.

Pitching Fan;

A former "Middle innings" pitcher now a Angels Scout stated that the "middle innings" and "set up" pitcher are the real MVP's of a successful team. As Roger Dangerfield would say they receive "no respect" but are respected by their teammates and manager.

Your son has a very good manager in Terry F.

Bob

I knew you were going to say that, Bob, and I totally agree. But if you want to help get your team to a W it can't hurt to understand your own strengths and weaknesses. Some do it instinctively but numbers can support it. For example, my son's wOBAcon and contact rate was weakest against the breaking ball (.418 and 66.7%) and strongest against FB over 93mph (.749 and 84.5%). That info helped pitchers during the season but it also helps him know what to work on. So far, one  of his teams used a lot of information and he liked learning about the pitchers he was facing. I can see how too much info would make a player or coach forget about paying attention to what they are seeing with their own eyes or not trusting their instincts. But I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

PT;

Are the Coaches and Metrics advisors measuring the pitch count. What is the hitter's success rate on 3-1, 2-0, counts vs 2-2, 3-2, 1-2?  Will a pitcher throw his slider or curve on a 2-0 count?

True story: Late in the season in Boston, the Red Sox are playing the Tigers. Ted Williams watched with sharp eyes the Rookie relief pitcher and then walked to his dugout and ask "what does this Rookie throw on 3-1, 2-0 - No one answered.

Williams strikes out! After the game the Rookie pitcher sent in the strikeout ball for Williams to sign. A week later Williams faces the same pitcher and hit a HR into the 2nd deck and as he "jogs" around the bases he yells at the pitcher "kid go get that *** ball and I will signed it"

Inner arrogance- "can it be measured"

Bob

Great winter topic PT.

I compare the barrage of new metrics and subsequent information to that of the internet.  In many ways, more information is very useful and in many ways, it isn't.  It is most productive for those who can best sort out what is useful to their particular set of circumstances/specific player.

One of son's coaching gigs was with a Mid-major program that was very proactive with using the latest technology and metrics.  It was helpful in spots but there were a few problems.  They had all the tech tools but a.) despite training, weren't fully up to speed on how best to implement techniques to produce improvements and b.) didn't have players good enough for it to close the competitive gap.  Certainly, to an extent, you either have the players or you don't .

As a coach, you have to figure out what resonates with each player to extract maximum performance.  These are just a few more tools in the box.  Sometimes a player is best left alone to "just play".  New metrics can provide a look from a different perspective that can sometimes be helpful.  Often, those new metrics and tools just confirm the same thing that is obvious to a trained eye.

As I'm sure you know, PT, it has certainly created a set of new jobs at the MiLB, MLB and sometimes college levels.

I don't like it from a fan standpoint.  I've been around the game for a very long time and I have a hard time keeping up with some of the new terminology.  No way the average fan can easily understand these #s and dialog.  I think at some point the pendulum needs to swing back to simpler terminology for broadcast and discussion purposes.  Advanced metrics should have some greater degree of separation from traditional stats.

@cabbagedad totally!! Need a dictionary to understand it all. That is why I was curious on the most useful of the new data.i asked my kid. Here is what he said:

"Xwoba for myself then induced vertical break and induced horizontal break for pitchers."

PT and Cabbage;

as Aaron, once said "I came to hit not to read"

Bob

@PTWood posted:

@cabbagedad totally!! Need a dictionary to understand it all. That is why I was curious on the most useful of the new data.i asked my kid. Here is what he said:

"Xwoba for myself then induced vertical break and induced horizontal break for pitchers."

Yeah, French or Greek?

When I was coaching, I thought I was taking a pretty deep dive (for HS anyway) making use of spraycharts, ground ball/fly ball/hard hit ball, BA with different counts, etc.  Even then, I kicked out a lot of what was available.  Just a few years later, there are exponentially more metrics.

The typical fan is overwhelmed by all the available stats from an enjoying the game standpoint. I did the research and understand them. I’m not interested in a lot of them. It’s important to know some of them to understand why certain players are in the lineup.

Any metric a front office has to evaluate players can be helpful. But the front office has to be honest with themselves about the player living up to the potential of his metrics. But some players lacking results keep getting chances due to metrics. Unfortunately, there aren’t metrics for mental and emotional makeup and instincts.

Nick Pivetta has one of the top spin rates in baseball. But he’s proving he’s never going to be more than a .500 pitcher with a 4.00+ ERA.

Sometimes, an organization has to understand a guy with less than desirable metrics is just a gamer who gets the job done. I call them the “bite the nails out of walls and spit them at you if that’s what it takes to win” players.

I was squarely in the old school camp, but I do like data and my opinion has changed over time.

As for Nick Pivatta, his overall metrics have him ranked 291st of all pitchers in 2022 - he was above average in only 3 metrics - 68th percentile in FB spin, 80th percentile in CB spin and 86th percentile in extension. He's below average in the other 14 metrics (bottom 2% in missing barrels).

Here's last season savant leader boards:

• Pitching
• Hitting

I don't believe metrics are the be all, end all - but as you can see by who tops the lists, they're relative. There will alway be players who over and under perform their measurables but days of just the eye test are long gone.

The players in the MLB have much more data than you'll find on savant and they use it to improve their game in many ways. Things that I would never have found intuitive like, if you want more vertical drop on your slider, you work on reducing your active spin.

Clearly baseball is not dead with the salaries being paid, but the game must evolve to grow. I was sad when they added the DH to the NL, but mostly because I'll never get to see my kid hit again - pretty sure I'm the only one tho...

The games are too long, both pitchers and hitters take too much time and after watching a long extra inning playoff game, I found myself wishing for the ghost runner on second. I'm looking forward to the upcoming changes and I would never have dreamed I'd feel that way...

@JucoDad posted:

I was squarely in the old school camp, but I do like data and my opinion has changed over time.

As for Nick Pivatta, his overall metrics have him ranked 291st of all pitchers in 2022 - he was above average in only 3 metrics - 68th percentile in FB spin, 80th percentile in CB spin and 86th percentile in extension. He's below average in the other 14 metrics (bottom 2% in missing barrels).

Here's last season savant leader boards:

• Pitching
• Hitting

I don't believe metrics are the be all, end all - but as you can see by who tops the lists, they're relative. There will alway be players who over and under perform their measurables but days of just the eye test are long gone.

The players in the MLB have much more data than you'll find on savant and they use it to improve their game in many ways. Things that I would never have found intuitive like, if you want more vertical drop on your slider, you work on reducing your active spin.

Clearly baseball is not dead with the salaries being paid, but the game must evolve to grow. I was sad when they added the DH to the NL, but mostly because I'll never get to see my kid hit again - pretty sure I'm the only one tho...

The games are too long, both pitchers and hitters take too much time and after watching a long extra inning playoff game, I found myself wishing for the ghost runner on second. I'm looking forward to the upcoming changes and I would never have dreamed I'd feel that way...

Every inning needs to start with a runner on second.

I recommend, for those with older kids or kids who coach, ask your kids. After my son answered my question about what metrics he pays attention to, he asked me if I even knew what they meant. LOL I suppose I answered with sufficient intelligence for him to want to engage. Ended up being a super interesting conversation. I finally asked his least favorite and he said BA. In his mind BA is outdated and that OPS is much more relevant to him.

No idea what it means, but I have to say that ever since your post I have been periodically saying "wOBAcon" to myself, and chuckling.  I thought I was doing well when I understood WHIP.

These stats definitely scratch my nerd itch. They are useful quantifiable tools to identify strengths and more importantly vulnerabilities in both hitters and pitchers. Yes an experienced eye can probably come to the same conclusion as stats but those folks are on the baseball endangered list or extinct (no disrespect to those who are offended). I really love how the kids and players are now embracing it and discussing it. I recently had a disagreement on the strength of the stats with my kid...I was absolutely glowing and tears were released after that conversation

NYC 2022;

The majority of the hitters have a "hole" in their swing.

Question can the metric experts determine the hole and the pitcher's best pitch to exploit the situation during the game?

Bob

@PTWood posted:

Ended up being a super interesting conversation. I finally asked his least favorite and he said BA. In his mind BA is outdated and that OPS is much more relevant to him.

I guess this is where the rubber meets the road...

I've always taken copious high-res photographs during games (t-ball to pro), where players and parents always loved them, there was a small point in HS where it annoyed my son but mostly, he was indifferent (it was a way to keep my mouth shut during games). However, in JUCO it became another thing. He wanted front and both side sequences in a multi-page PDF - my camera at the time did 11 frames per second at 26MP. I'd get a text after the games, "you got those images processed?" After he'd have time to digest them, we'd have a conversation on what he thought and why - occasionally I'd give input but by this time he was schooling me. I helped with technical assistance by overlaying sequences where he was throwing well with those where he wasn't, to look at release points and body position. I continued to take photos until the majors, they won't let me bring in a large zoom or walk to net in any part of the park to take my photos - but 3 of his Topps prospect trading cards are my photos, and that's cool.

Getting back to the topic - I loved baseball, it always held something magic for me and I never wanted anything to change – I was a purist. This held true all the way through college and right up till my son hit a wall in pro ball. Watching the struggle of other kids, but especially his struggles had me only caring about the things he needed and especially being there for emotional support. I won’t pretend to be stats/metrics guru, but I know enough that when he’s talking about those things that are important to his career, I can be a sounding board and advocate. I’ve been a hobby software developer since 15, so when my software engineer son is talking about using a recursive function approach over a more readable looping method, encapsulated micro services, or reducing the transactional load on the AWS servers, I know what he's talking about – I don’t see any difference, I just feel blessed that I’m interacting with my adult children in a way we both value.

Stats and metrics are never going to replace baseball IQ, but if you don’t embrace the changes, you’re not using every advantage available or being as good as you could be. There’s no way for me to adequately explain the differences between the pro levels, other than to say they’re enormous – I had no clue until I watched my son struggle – understanding metrics is an important part of the process. There are other things he does with metrics, but I believe he feels those are a competitive advantage, so I’ll leave those out of this discussion.

Also, as a relief pitchers’ parent I’m all for the ghost runner in extra innings. I’m all for not risking arm health by too many consecutive days throwing, and who wants to watch position players pitch, except maybe their parents…

Sorry for the book!

@Consultant posted:

NYC 2022;

The majority of the hitters have a "hole" in their swing.

Question can the metric experts determine the hole and the pitcher's best pitch to exploit the situation during the game?

Bob

I believe so Bob. Stats can show trends of a hitters vulnerabilities to a pitch location. Tech today can even better define the causes (swing flaw, pitch tunneling etc) and even smart pitch machines can replicate the pitch to provide the hitter the reps needed to improve.

@2022NYC posted:

I believe so Bob. Stats can show trends of a hitters vulnerabilities to a pitch location. Tech today can even better define the causes (swing flaw, pitch tunneling etc) and even smart pitch machines can replicate the pitch to provide the hitter the reps needed to improve.

MLB teams have a pitching machine that can replicate movement of any pitcher/pitch they have savant data on. It projects a life size video of the pitcher from their wind up / stretch and the ball exits from the correct release point.

- but 3 of his Topps prospect trading cards are my photos, and that's cool.

Very cool!!!